Unofficial Preview Round 15 - Hawthorn v Fremantle, AS, 120pm WST - Thrilla in Antarctica

[Grape Bear]

The last five times
R21, 2014, Fremantle 17.8 (110) d Hawthorn 13.13 (91) at PS
R3, 2014, Hawthorn 21.11 (137) d Fremantle 11.13 (79) at MCG
GF, 2013, Hawthorn 11.11 (77) d Fremantle 8.14 (62) at MCG
R4, 2013, Hawthorn 18.10 (118) d Fremantle 11.10 (76) at Aurora Stadium
R8, 2012, Hawthorn 17.17 (119) d Fremantle 9.9 (63) at Aurora Stadium

Form Line
Fremantle Dockers - WLWWW
Hawthorn Hawks - WWWWW

If there was ever a bogey side for the Dockers, the Hawks will be it. In 30 contests between the sides Hawthorn has completely dominated, winning 22 games to 8, including eight of the last 10 since 2008. Both our wins against the Hawks have both come at home - which puts the win-loss record into some perspective as playing the Hawks in WA has been as rare as hen's teeth. (Thank you, AFL fixturing... Not.)

The Last Time...

Last year's Round 21 encounter at Subiaco Oval was a must-win game for both sides, with Hawthorn wanting to lock away a top 2 berth and Fremantle needing a win to stay in touch with a top 4 finish. Both sides were missing key personnel - Roughead and Rioli for the Hawks, McPharlin and Ballantyne out with injury for the Dockers. Hawthorn were going for a 5 game winning streak into the finals, while Fremantle was coming off a heartbreaker loss at the hands of Geelong but was showing signs of a return to form.

The game started out with Hawthorn dominating the 1st term - but not capitalizing on their chances early. The Dockers found their mojo and played with more intent in the second, and the game that everyone had predicted to be a defensive grind turned into a high scoring shoot out, with both sides scoring goal for goal going into the long break. The Dockers gained ascendancy in the third term, scoring goals off uncharacteristic turnovers as the Hawks coughed up the ball from perceived pressure. When the smoke cleared, Fremantle was the last team standing with a 19-point win.

Pavlich turned back the clock and played a captain's game, booting 5 goals. Mundy and Fyfe shared best midfielder honors, with Fyfe firing early and Mundy tearing the game apart late.

This Time...

In the 3 years since RTB has taken the reins, the usual narrative of Dockers vs Hawks clashes has been that of the best defensive team taking on the best offensive team in the competition. Hawthorn have the enviable ability to slice through the Fremantle defense and score heavily and ruthlessly and kill the game in a short period of time. On the other hand, Fremantle is still striving to improve its attack to bring it up to the standard of their defense. And it's been harped on, ad nauseum - you can't win a flag if you can't kick a winning score. As such, despite Fremantle's 12-1 position on the ladder this year, pundits still don't think they're "convincing" contenders. (Never mind if Hawthorn won the 2013 flag off us by playing our pressure game better than we did.)

As expected, the Dockers have once more been sent on expedition to Antarctica by the AFL to accomplish what has been so far a mission impossible - take 4 points off the Hawks in their stronghold, Aurora Stadium. Oh, and just to make things even more impossible, let those Perth-based upstarts take one of the longest trips in footy off a 7 day break while the Hawks have a head start of 2 days recovery and a shorter ride. Given our dismal record at Aurora and Hawthorn's building form, no one is seriously giving the boys any chance of winning this encounter.

No one, maybe, expect the boys themselves. For the first time this year, they go in as the underdogs - and RTB usually knows how to use that underdog tag to his team's advantage. (Remember Geelong in 2013?)

Talking Points...

1. Despite Fremantle's lofty ladder position, the team has been playing pretty ugly, "unconvincing" footy for the last 5 weeks. From being a pretty good wet weather team the past two years, the side seems to be struggling with adapting our new game plan to the wet.
2. Hawthorn is first in the league for inside 50's and equal first for marks inside 50. We need to have ascendancy in the midfield to keep the ball from getting there, as the myriad scoring options that Hawthorn have in their forward line will kill the game for us before we can gain traction.
3. Who will be our avenues to goal? Mayne and Ballas, while giving us great defensive pressure, have both struggled to hit the scoreboard this year. Walters is in form and Pav seems to be working his way back into things, but we need more dangerous targets in the forward 50 or be smart about where we kick in the ball if we don't want Hawthorn to outmark us and hurt us on the counter.
4. Goalkicking practice is a must. No point in dominating general play when we can't convert it into scoreboard pressure. (See Collingwood v Hawthorn in Round 14.)

Ins and Outs... (For Freo)

None, unless due to injury or illness

Tip...

I generally don't like tipping against our boys, but I cannot tell a lie. With the travel and the shorter break and the hard slog and Hawthorn's scoring power, I can't see us getting up for this - but I am hoping the guys will give it a good hot crack and break their duck in Tasmania.

Hawthorn by at least 3 goals... but will be happy as Larry to be proven wrong!

 

[Tazmania]

Great review and have to agree. This game to me is always the litmus test for Fremantle. If we can beat them in Lonnie we can beat them at the MCG since everything is against us for this game...every time.

 

[Righteo]

Holy moly a proper preview thread and nice and early too! Sticky'd.

 

[E Shed]

A most excellent summation of the state of the nation.

What it comes down to for me I look at the guys Hawks have running around up forward in Gunston, Rioli, Breust, Puopolo, Hale, etc and they just look a tad classier than what we have in our offensive brigade. Walters is a break even with Rioli and Pav can still hold his own but after that we fall away badly. Whatever you might think of Gunston and Puopolo they represent a bigger threat than Mayne and Ballantyne in their current form.

You have to play for every minute of 4 quarters against Hawthorn, drop off for a period and they hurt you. If we can stay switched on enough in the middle and in defence to keep them out AND manufacture enough avenues to goal then anything is possible.

Given that Hawthorn are one of the most creative and organised teams at bringing the ball inside 50 and creating space for their forwards AND that we are playing without our best creative defender as well as our best negating defender I don't expect to win but I'd love to see our guys show enough to say we can get it done when it matters.

 

[StingBitten]

Don't know why but had the feeling a sneaky MRP ban was coming our way after Brisbane as it was a fairly brutal affair, Ballas off with a fine so we should have a fairly fit side for Sunday.

Biggest match of the year for us so far IMO.

 

[electricfeel]

Haha Antarctica! I wonder if our boys will get hypothermia again. Or was that at skilled stadium?

 

[Grape Bear]

Don't know why but had the feeling a sneaky MRP ban was coming our way after Brisbane as it was a fairly brutal affair, Ballas off with a fine so we should have a fairly fit side for Sunday.

Biggest match of the year for us so far IMO.

What fine?! Having said that, Ballas suspended would have been a good excuse to bring in Crozier to see what he can bring into the side as a Ballas replacement without having to dent Balla's confidence with an omission. Croz did well v the Hawks - got Burgoyne in a ripper tackle in our 50 and finished off with a great goal.

 

[Righteo]

A most excellent summation of the state of the nation.

What it comes down to for me I look at the guys Hawks have running around up forward in Gunston, Rioli, Breust, Puopolo, Hale, etc and they just look a tad classier than what we have in our offensive brigade. Walters is a break even with Rioli and Pav can still hold his own but after that we fall away badly. Whatever you might think of Gunston and Puopolo they represent a bigger threat than Mayne and Ballantyne in their current form.

You have to play for every minute of 4 quarters against Hawthorn, drop off for a period and they hurt you. If we can stay switched on enough in the middle and in defence to keep them out AND manufacture enough avenues to goal then anything is possible.

Given that Hawthorn are one of the most creative and organised teams at bringing the ball inside 50 and creating space for their forwards AND that we are playing without our best creative defender as well as our best negating defender I don't expect to win but I'd love to see our guys show enough to say we can get it done when it matters.

Spurr vs Rioli for me is close to the most crucial matchup of the game. Spurr has been in tremendous form not only rebounding but comprehensively shutting his man down but he faces by far his biggest test this weekend. Rioli has done some dark, unmentionable things to us in the past and especially in Lonny. Unfortunately I can see Rioli/Breust/Pupolo/Hill doing us a fair bit of damage; Isaac Smith is another one we absolutely have to lock down on.

Going to need to completely dominate them in the middle to have any chance of pinching this one. I fear we're badly outgunned though even if Roughy misses- Hawks by 4-5 goals.

 

[E Shed]

Spurr vs Rioli for me is close to the most crucial matchup of the game. Spurr has been in tremendous form not only rebounding but comprehensively shutting his man down but he faces by far his biggest test this weekend. Rioli has done some dark, unmentionable things to us in the past and especially in Lonny. Unfortunately I can see Rioli/Breust/Pupolo/Hill doing us a fair bit of damage; Isaac Smith is another one we absolutely have to lock down on.

Going to need to completely dominate them in the middle to have any chance of pinching this one. I fear we're badly outgunned though even if Roughy misses- Hawks by 4-5 goals.

Be fun to see our Hill on Smith or maybe head to head with his brother. Stephen normally brings his A game against Hawthorn when he's playing against his Bro. He's had the better of all the match ups so far.

 

[Grape Bear]

I wonder who AP will line up on? He's agile enough, but does he have the smarts to go with Gunston? Also... It will be interesting to see who Duff will be made to mind. It's a blessing that Rough is out, defense if alreday pretty stretched as it is.

We also won't have a tagger this time around, can't remember who Crowls went to last year. Jordan Lewis was a lone hand for them the last time we versed them. Hodge didn't seem to be influential.

 

[electricfeel]

I hope Sutcliffe isn't brought in just yet. Needs a game in the WAFL first. I still have nightmares of his shitty defence against hawthorn in the grand final.

 

[Kram]

Hawthorn $1.41
Fremantle $2.90

Thought we might have been even longer.

 

[youmewe]

Both teams will look decidedly different from the last time we met.

If both teams line up the way they did last weekend:

Hawthorn

Outs: McEvoy, O'Brien and Simpkin.
Ins: Ceglar, Spangher and Rioli.

Freo

Outs: Dawson, Mzungu, Crowley, Crozier, Duffy, Sutcliffe, Silvagni and Johnson.
Ins: Ballantyne, Ibbotson, Suban, De Boer, Sheridan, McPharlin, A. Pearce and C. Pearce.

 

[rodney hoo]

I've only been wrong once tipping Freo this year ( bloody tigers) we WILL kick arse . Can't wait bring it on.

 

[simpsonwillo]

I honestly think we can beat the Hawks over there. Would be an awesome win. Forever the optimist.
Freo by 19. Again!

 

[Allikat]

I'm tipping Freo! Because I'm biased. This is going to be a hard game, and after yet another dirty hard wet game.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

I've only been wrong once tipping Freo this year ( bloody tigers) we WILL kick arse . Can't wait bring it on.

So you've just tipped us every week?

Good preview. I have a sneaky feeling we'll win. Hawthorn are not as good this year and we'll be up for the challenge after a few down weeks

 

[StingBitten]

Reckon we need all the guns who were firing on Sunday to fire again - and we need more from Hill, Ballantyne and Taberner.

Why did GWS beat them? Were they outgunned? Makes me wonder if speed is key in the match - keep Sheridan and bring back Crozier or a Duffy/Blakely/Weller type. Hopes aren't high though.

 

[PapaJ]

A most excellent summation of the state of the nation.

What it comes down to for me I look at the guys Hawks have running around up forward in Gunston, Rioli, Breust, Puopolo, Hale, etc and they just look a tad classier than what we have in our offensive brigade. Walters is a break even with Rioli and Pav can still hold his own but after that we fall away badly. Whatever you might think of Gunston and Puopolo they represent a bigger threat than Mayne and Ballantyne in their current form.

You have to play for every minute of 4 quarters against Hawthorn, drop off for a period and they hurt you. If we can stay switched on enough in the middle and in defence to keep them out AND manufacture enough avenues to goal then anything is possible.

Given that Hawthorn are one of the most creative and organised teams at bringing the ball inside 50 and creating space for their forwards AND that we are playing without our best creative defender as well as our best negating defender I don't expect to win but I'd love to see our guys show enough to say we can get it done when it matters.

Agree with that, except for bold bit. I think Walters in form is slightly better player than Rioli. He is the equal for goal sense and creating scoreboard pressure from few opportunities. But Walters generally gives you a more rounded game. I know you're speaking in general terms and it's not your main point, but I couldn't let it slide. Rioli is a gem, a player you'd put in your team without doubt, but he's over-hyped something terrible (thanks Bruce Mc). After that, yeah, we'd have the 2nd best fwd line by a fair way.

Elsewhere though I think we can match them if not have the better. I think if Mundy brings his beast mode, Fyfe does what Fyfe does, Neale, Barlow and the support cast of CPearce, DPearce, SHill and Suban lead by Sandi we can get the edge in the midfield stoppages and that will give us chances. Our overall defensive structures (though they do seem to fall apart in regular season games vs Hawks) should keep us in it. But in the end, unless we convert our chances, which would go against recent form, then we'll get done because even if we're switched on, they'll score their 90-110 points.

All in all, I think Grape Bear has got it about right:

If we play to form: lose by 3-4 goals
If we are really switched on: 1-2 goal win for us could be doable.
If we bring our usual "Tassie game": smashed by the standard 8-10 goals when playing the Hawks away.

 

[FreoRicci]

Ballas and Mayne really to produce close to their best. Really slow in form atm and a game like this will either catch them out or show their best. Walters is the only forward that is producing regular AA form.

 

[electricfeel]

I am not very optimistic, I've already conceded that we'll probably lose and lose terribly. But deep down I have a sneaky inkling that THIS year will finally be the year we'll get them down at Tassie. Need a big game from everyone. I think the players know how important this game is and will rise to the occasion. Walters to kick 5.

 

[poshman]

the build up this week has the watching a car crash feel to it.... the turning pivotal moment this week will be the teams announcement. After that we get to see our guys go against the best, and see how much our midfield has improved against theirs. We need Hilly to play like our second best mid, with Mundy in form and Neale and Barlow firing. If he can be that influential through 4 quarters we are in it. If not it will be a grind for us and I think their class will win out.

The fixturing is absolute rubbish to say the least... a blight on our game.

Also... how good is it to have a proper preview thread this early in the week!! It earned a well deserved Holy Moly... and the use of holy moly earned a like! A good Holy Moly is always worth a smile!

Hawks by 27

 

[Freeeoo]

Long range weather forecast has it 12 degrees and partly cloudy. Hopefully won't be another wet game, if so I give us a chance.

 

[Dockernut]

View attachment 149888

The last five times
R21, 2014, Fremantle 17.8 (110) d Hawthorn 13.13 (91) at PS
R3, 2014, Hawthorn 21.11 (137) d Fremantle 11.13 (79) at MCG
GF, 2013, Hawthorn 11.11 (77) d Fremantle 8.14 (62) at MCG
R4, 2013, Hawthorn 18.10 (118) d Fremantle 11.10 (76) at Aurora Stadium
R8, 2012, Hawthorn 17.17 (119) d Fremantle 9.9 (63) at Aurora Stadium

Form Line
Fremantle Dockers - WLWWW
Hawthorn Hawks - WWWWW

If there was ever a bogey side for the Dockers, the Hawks will be it. In 30 contests between the sides Hawthorn has completely dominated, winning 22 games to 8, including eight of the last 10 since 2008. Both our wins against the Hawks have both come at home - which puts the win-loss record into some perspective as playing the Hawks in WA has been as rare as hen's teeth. (Thank you, AFL fixturing... Not.)

The Last Time...

Last year's Round 21 encounter at Subiaco Oval was a must-win game for both sides, with Hawthorn wanting to lock away a top 2 berth and Fremantle needing a win to stay in touch with a top 4 finish. Both sides were missing key personnel - Roughead and Rioli for the Hawks, McPharlin and Ballantyne out with injury for the Dockers. Hawthorn were going for a 5 game winning streak into the finals, while Fremantle was coming off a heartbreaker loss at the hands of Geelong but was showing signs of a return to form.

The game started out with Hawthorn dominating the 1st term - but not capitalizing on their chances early. The Dockers found their mojo and played with more intent in the second, and the game that everyone had predicted to be a defensive grind turned into a high scoring shoot out, with both sides scoring goal for goal going into the long break. The Dockers gained ascendancy in the third term, scoring goals off uncharacteristic turnovers as the Hawks coughed up the ball from perceived pressure. When the smoke cleared, Fremantle was the last team standing with a 29-point win.

Pavlich turned back the clock and played a captain's game, booting 5 goals. Mundy and Fyfe shared best midfielder honors, with Fyfe firing early and Mundy tearing the game apart late.

This Time...

In the 3 years since RTB has taken the reins, the usual narrative of Dockers vs Hawks clashes has been that of the best defensive team taking on the best offensive team in the competition. Hawthorn have the enviable ability to slice through the Fremantle defense and score heavily and ruthlessly and kill the game in a short period of time. On the other hand, Fremantle is still striving to improve its attack to bring it up to the standard of their defense. And it's been harped on, ad nauseum - you can't win a flag if you can't kick a winning score. As such, despite Fremantle's 12-1 position on the ladder this year, pundits still don't think they're "convincing" contenders. (Never mind if Hawthorn won the 2013 flag off us by playing our pressure game better than we did.)

As expected, the Dockers have once more been sent on expedition to Antarctica by the AFL to accomplish what has been so far a mission impossible - take 4 points off the Hawks in their stronghold, Aurora Stadium. Oh, and just to make things even more impossible, let those Perth-based upstarts take one of the longest trips in footy off a 7 day break while the Hawks have a head start of 2 days recovery and a shorter ride. Given our dismal record at Aurora and Hawthorn's building form, no one is seriously giving the boys any chance of winning this encounter.

No one, maybe, expect the boys themselves. For the first time this year, they go in as the underdogs - and RTB usually knows how to use that underdog tag to his team's advantage. (Remember Geelong in 2013?)

Talking Points...

1. Despite Fremantle's lofty ladder position, the team has been playing pretty ugly, "unconvincing" footy for the last 5 weeks. From being a pretty good wet weather team the past two years, the side seems to be struggling with adapting our new game plan to the wet.
2. Hawthorn is first in the league for inside 50's and equal first for marks inside 50. We need to have ascendancy in the midfield to keep the ball from getting there, as the myriad scoring options that Hawthorn have in their forward line will kill the game for us before we can gain traction.
3. Who will be our avenues to goal? Mayne and Ballas, while giving us great defensive pressure, have both struggled to hit the scoreboard this year. Walters is in form and Pav seems to be working his way back into things, but we need more dangerous targets in the forward 50 or be smart about where we kick in the ball if we don't want Hawthorn to outmark us and hurt us on the counter.
4. Goalkicking practice is a must. No point in dominating general play when we can't convert it into scoreboard pressure. (See Collingwood v Hawthorn in Round 14.)

Ins and Outs... (For Freo)

None, unless due to injury or illness

Tip...

I generally don't like tipping against our boys, but I cannot tell a lie. With the travel and the shorter break and the hard slog and Hawthorn's scoring power, I can't see us getting up for this - but I am hoping the guys will give it a good hot crack and break their duck in Tasmania.

Hawthorn by at least 3 goals... but will be happy as Larry to be proven wrong!

Excellent review.

This is one of those games where I just program the set top box to record and walk away to do something that won't involve me punching walls for 3 hours. Then come home and review the carnage. With any luck it won't play out that way this year, but Hawthorn have looked superb of late and we've been stinky.

 

[Cobbler]

I'd have been more confident 6 weeks ago. Our form was fairly sublime and the Hawks were down a touch. Even if this game was played 6 weeks ago I'd have not been overly confident, just more than now.

They have some injury concerns but their firepower usually finds a way.

There are only 2 ways we can win this. Match them with firepower or defensively be at our very very best and hope around 80 points is enough to win the game.

I can't see us matching their scoring albeit we did it last year at home.

Therefore our best bet is a defensive slog and making the most of our entries.

In a sad way a wet game would possibly provide us with our best shot, BUT we aint exactly firing in the wet.

We need a solid start, a decent grind, some scoreboard pressure, some missed opportunities from them and 3 of Pav, Walters, Ballas, Mayne or Taberner have to hit the scoreboard multiple times.

I'll take the optimistic viewpoint in saying we can kick 13 goals to 11.

Freo 13 11 89
Hawks 11 15 81

Walters 3 Pav, Ballas, Hill 2

BOG Hill. Just think he holds the key for this game and has been building. His time to put in a undisputed BOG claim.