Preview Round 15: West Coast vs Essendon, Gabba, Tuesday 01/09/2020 @ 8:10 PM AEST

Who wins?


  • Total voters
    6
  • Poll closed .

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eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Observations

West Coast: The Eagles had a disappointing loss to Richmond, the Tigers winning every quarter to down West Coast by 27 points. Andrew Gaff was prolific on the outside with 32 disposals and 2 goal assists whilst Liam Ryan was the focal point up front when Josh Kennedy was concussed, kicking 3 goals in a very good display.

Essendon: A tale of two halves for Essendon. First half was incredibly disappointing whilst the second half was incredible. Zach Merrett and Andrew McGrath had the ball on a string between them, amassing 68 disposals, 11 clearances and 9 tackles between them whilst Joe Daniher came back with 3 goals, 10 marks and THAT DAMNED SMILE.

Head to Head (last 5)

West Coast 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

West Coast: 4W 1L
Essendon: 1W 3L 1D


Sportsbet odds

West Coast: $
Essendon: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

West Coast vs Essendon

FB: Aaron Francis - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad

FF: Bailey Wiliams - Oscar Allen - Liam Ryan
HB: Martin Gleeson - Michael Hurley - Jordan Ridley
HF: Jamie Cripps - Jack Darling - Brendan Ah Chee
MF: Kyle Langford - Zachary Merrett - Devon Smith
MF: Andrew Gaff - Tim Kelly - Jarrod Brander
HF: Matthew Guelfi - James Stewart - Irving Mosquito
HB: Josh Rotham - Jeremy McGovern - Shannon Hurn
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Cale Hooker - Jake Stringer
FB: Liam Duggan - Tom Barrass - Bradley Sheppard
OB: Samuel Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Tom Hickey - Dominic Sheed - Luke Shuey
IC: Andrew McGrath - William Snelling - Mason Redman - Dylan Clarke
IC: Xavier O'Neill - Tom Cole - Jackson Neson - Mark Hutchings

West Coast in: Oscar Allen, Jackson Nelson, Tom Hickey; Out: Josh J Kennedy (concussion), Nic Reid (omit), Nic Naitanui (managed)

Essendon in: Michael Hurley, Aaron Francis, Sam Draper; Out: Joe Daniher (managed), Brayden Ham, Andrew Phillips


West Coast defence vs Essendon forward line

So far this season Essendon averaged 21.6% in terms of goals/inside 50 this season, a little below the AFL average. West Coast have the third best defence in the AFL this season, conceding a goal 20.7% of the time it enters defensive 50. Essendon will likely rest star Joe Daniher due to the short turn around, so expect Cale Hooker to lead the forward line this week, most likely opposed to Jeremy McGovern, a battle of the titans as the two are both great marks and excellent one-on-one, whilst Tom Barrass will go to James Stewart and Shannon Hurn to go head to head with Jake Stringer. Brad Sheppard has a good record at shutting Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti down so expect those two to renew acquaintances


Midfield/rucks battle

It'll be an interesting one in here, West Coast are 1st for clearance differential in the AFL, Essendon are 6th. The pair are also 11th and 16th for contested possession differential this season. West Coast's inside core of Tim Kelly, Dominic Sheed, Luke Shuey and Brendan Ah Chee is still very strong alongside tagger Mark Hutchings, who has been able to shut down Essendon prime mover Zach Merrett on multiple occassions. Essendon will be hoping that their core of Darcy Parish, Andrew McGrath and Dylan Shiel will be able to step it up to cover for him and get him into the play. On the outside, Kyle Langford is having a career best year on a wing, his kicking has been a delight both finding a player on the 45 and for goal, expect him to try to outpoint the tall but athletic Jarrod Brander whilst Devon Smith goes up against Andrew Gaff, arguably the best two way winger in the league. Rucks wise, Sam Draper will go head to head with Tom Hickey and Bailey Williams, James Stewart to be his back up.


West Coast forward line vs Essendon defence

West Coast have a goals/inside 50 rate of 24.7%, one of the best in the AFL. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 21.8% of the time it enters defensive 50, around the AFL average. No Josh Kennedy, out with concussion, helps the Dons, but Jack Darling is a very good leader none-the-less and Michael Hurley will have his hands full against him, whilst Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will get a chance on someone around his own age in Bailey Williams, and Aaron Francis will play on impressive young tall Oscar Allen. Liam Ryan has given Adam Saad plenty of trouble in the past and Saad's pride is a great thing, so expect him to try to change that here.


X-Factor Player

Will Snelling is one of six players to play every game so far this year for Essendon and has been quietly building all season. Expect a big couple of weeks for the lad.


Key stat

West Coast: Offensive conversion. No Kennedy is a big out, but their forward line is still very powerful, need to maintain the rage so to speak

Essendon: Clearances. When they win, they're +41 in clearance differential so far this season, when they lose they're -12.


Tip

Hmm. I'd love to win, but can't see it unfortuntately, they're a class outfit. West Coast by 22.
 
Last edited:

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Old Stuckup

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In: Hurley, McKenna, Draper
Out: Guelfi, Ham, Phillips

B: Saad - BZT - Gleeson
HB: Ridley - Hurley - McKenna
C: Langford - McGrath - Merrett
HF: Stringer - Daniher - Stewart
F: Mosquito - Hooker - Walla
R: Draper - Shiel - Parish
I/C: Smith - Snelling - Clarke - Redman
 

eth-dog

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In: Hurley, McKenna, Draper
Out: Guelfi, Ham, Phillips

B: Saad - BZT - Gleeson
HB: Ridley - Hurley - McKenna
C: Langford - McGrath - Merrett
HF: Stringer - Daniher - Stewart
F: Mosquito - Hooker - Walla
R: Draper - Shiel - Parish
I/C: Smith - Snelling - Clarke - Redman
Francis?
 

citizen-erased

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In: Hurley, McKenna, Draper
Out: Guelfi, Ham, Phillips

B: Saad - BZT - Gleeson
HB: Ridley - Hurley - McKenna
C: Langford - McGrath - Merrett
HF: Stringer - Daniher - Stewart
F: Mosquito - Hooker - Walla
R: Draper - Shiel - Parish
I/C: Smith - Snelling - Clarke - Redman
Gleeson for Francis too. Franga is the future of that backline. Gleeson is not.

i like that team though.
Weagles midfield won't be as easy to trash the way we did v the Hawks in the 2nd half, but we just need to bring that game plan.
 

MightyDon

Club Legend
Jun 18, 2011
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Essendon
In: Hurley, McKenna, Draper
Out: Guelfi, Ham, Phillips

B: Saad - BZT - Gleeson
HB: Ridley - Hurley - McKenna
C: Langford - McGrath - Merrett
HF: Stringer - Daniher - Stewart
F: Mosquito - Hooker - Walla
R: Draper - Shiel - Parish
I/C: Smith - Snelling - Clarke - Redman
McKenna doesn’t play again unless he’s committed to the club, even if the commitments only for this year, which means HBF and switched on. If he doesn’t want to play let him go home already, will be sad and and a waste of talent but why play him if he doesn’t wanna be here?
 

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tha Freak

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Got to go on form,
our last2 quarters were very good!
Eagles have to travel and have not liked Qld conditions!
There will be a ‘Vibe’ in the team!
Hopefully no Kennedy.
We have Joe!!!
our record against West Coast is not bad!
5 day turn around.
We Have Joe!!!

Dons by 15!!!
 

JayJ20

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Considering we've been conservative with Draper, I think we'll do the same with Daniher.
Let him play against Geelong and Port the following week.

In: McKernan, Francis, Hurley, Draper
Out: Daniher (managed), Gleeson, BZT, Phillips

Potentially no Kennedy means Hooker can play forward for the full game.

I like having 3 talls in the forwardline. Functions better.
 

eth-dog

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Considering we've been conservative with Draper, I think we'll do the same with Daniher.
Let him play against Geelong and Port the following week.

In: McKernan, Francis, Hurley, Draper
Out: Daniher (managed), Gleeson, BZT, Phillips

Potentially no Kennedy means Hooker can play forward for the full game.

I like having 3 talls in the forwardline. Functions better.
Harsh on Gleeson and Zerk, especially seeing as West Coast will still have Jack Darling, Oscar Allen and probably Bailey Williams up front.

And for gods sake Smack hasn't even played a scratchie (unless he played one today) since being dropped for 0 goals in 6 games
 

JayJ20

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Harsh on Gleeson and Zerk, especially seeing as West Coast will still have Jack Darling, Oscar Allen and probably Bailey Williams up front.

And for gods sake Smack hasn't even played a scratchie (unless he played one today) since being dropped for 0 goals in 6 games
I know Smack is bad, but I really want three talls in our forwardline. Our best forwardline consists of 3 talls.
The ideal scenario is that Daniher is fit enough to play, but that's obviously too risky.

BZT and Gleeson unfortunate, but I think Francis and Hurley make more sense. They'll get their turn again.
 

eth-dog

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I know Smack is bad, but I really want three talls in our forwardline. Our best forwardline consists of 3 talls.
The ideal scenario is that Daniher is fit enough to play, but that's obviously too risky.

BZT and Gleeson unfortunate, but I think Francis and Hurley make more sense. They'll get their turn again.
Hooker, Stewart, Stringer as the third banana. The issue is when the ball comes to ground with that sort of line up.

And dropping players like Gleeson after he held Gunston to 11 touches, 3 marks and 2 goals (one of which came from a Ridley free) isn't unfortunate, it's not a good message. Zerk basically played as the lone tall in the second half and did pretty well too.

Personally I'd go with:

In: Draper, Hurley, Francis
Out: Daniher (managed), Phillips, Ham (both omit)

Ham really isn't quite there at the top level at this stage. Give Zerk a chance to play on someone starting out as well, like Williams. Hurley on Darling and Francis on Adams.
 

JayJ20

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Hooker, Stewart, Stringer as the third banana. The issue is when the ball comes to ground with that sort of line up.

And dropping players like Gleeson after he held Gunston to 11 touches, 3 marks and 2 goals (one of which came from a Ridley free) isn't unfortunate, it's not a good message. Zerk basically played as the lone tall in the second half and did pretty well too.

Personally I'd go with:

In: Draper, Hurley, Francis
Out: Daniher (managed), Phillips, Ham (both omit)

Ham really isn't quite there at the top level at this stage. Give Zerk a chance to play on someone starting out as well, like Williams. Hurley on Darling and Francis on Adams.
I don't know about the balance.

Bringing in a ruck for a ruck, but taking out a forward and a winger (although he didn't play there often) for two defenders doesn't seem right to me.

If we're going to take Ham out, then I'm happy to bring in McKenna on a wing. I still think McKernan should replace Daniher to keep our structure. We swing Hooker forward and we kick the most points all year. Very reminiscent of 2017. I don't want to change what worked.
 

eth-dog

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I don't know about the balance.

Bringing in a ruck for a ruck, but taking out a forward and a winger (although he didn't play there often) for two defenders doesn't seem right to me.

If we're going to take Ham out, then I'm happy to bring in McKenna on a wing. I still think McKernan should replace Daniher to keep our structure.
Guelfi started further up the ground. He and Smith on the wings makes a lot of sense.

Nah. We finally got rid of him.
 

Bombers36

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Jul 15, 2008
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We are still in the hunt for finals if we win this - dont think we can rest Daniher - he's been rested for over a year - we need him out there!
Just start him on the bench and manage his game time - him and Hooker can rotate up forward. I'd have;-

OUT: Ham, Phillips, Redman
IN: Hurley, Draper, Francis

Team;-

Hurley Zerk Saad
Gleeson Ridley Smith
Parish Shiel Langford
Snelling Stringer Mosquito
Stewart Hooker Tippa

Draper McGrath Merrett

Bench: Clarke Guelfi Francis Daniher
 

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