Preview Round 16 - Bombers vs Swans - Saturday 02 Jul @ 1:45pm MCG

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Membling

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Just an annual (bi-annual this year) reminder for all Essendon Fans reading this thread:

1656215091370.png



Now I will explain why this is probably another danger game.

Essendon lost week lost to WCE. Yes, the match was more of a fight to the death between two malnourished, untrained, ill prepared and most likely intoxicated degenerates but hey, it may galvanise the dons.

Swans have a lot riding on this game for top 4 aspirations. Now we have a history over the last few years of dropping games that we really shouldn’t, especially when it could be hugely advantageous to win. Looking directly at both the dogs and power games.

EDIT: SM has informed me it is Parker's 250th which I was remiss in missing. Noting our shite performance in milestone matches, placing it here.


Last time we played:

We have to go as far back as…. Round 9 which was all of six weeks ago. Swans won by 58 point kicking a wayward 14.21 105 to 6.11 47. Mills smashed it with 29 disposals, seven clearances and 13 tackles, with The Chad having his career best game in my opinion with 32 disposals and 11 score involvements. Parish had 31 disposals but as with his game, it is death by a thousand cuts rather than impact and Hobbs playing a solid game being one of the Debutants for the Dons this year. Peter Wright was the lone threat for dons that game, kicking two majors and has been one of the Dons more constant performers during this season.


The Dons:

Current representation of the state of the Essendon Footy Club:
1656215150949.png




Essendon have been… well deplorable. A lot of external chatter they would be up and about with continued development from the likes of Perkin, Cox and Reid but the core players are just not there. Coupled with not winning a final for 6504 days and counting (probably will be chucking on a minimum of another 400 odd days as this year is a write off) they have not been a force for quite a while.

A look at their last few games:

Last Five


LLLWL

Average losing margin: 21 points

Average winning margin: 35 points

Last game

Weagles 16.11 107.
Dons 14.13 97

Jeez, you would be dirty if you were a dons fan. WCE are a crippled footy club right now and you should be expected to win regardless. Suppose nothing is ever in the bag come sports. Two metre Peter played well with a wayward 4.4 and 8 marks and Stringer and Martin ably supporting him with 3.0 and 2.2 respectively (Martin has been a great pick up). Merrett chipped in (pun intended) with 28 disposals and Shiel with 26 disposals.

However, there is something entirely dysfunctional with Essendon as a whole. Their midfield looks relatively soft with a very same same vibe in Merrett, Shiel and Parish rotating through. It is no surprise they swing in Stringer for a POD through there. The backline looks underwhelming, especially with their KPD posts - looking at the line up was it Laverde and… Ridley taking FB and CHB? Their forward line is perhaps their strongest line up with Stringer and Wright leading the way with Jones showing some exceptionally promising signs.

They could really do with a forward like Logan McDonald. Thank you Dorodo for being a difficult POS to deal with.

Swans recent game:

Our best, is arguably the most electric and skillful movement and finishing in the league and I will stand by that statement. However, our worst is insipid garbage that allows teams to get multiple goals scored, usually in a flurry. So, with that being said. I want a consistent effort over four quarters. Also to bury the Dons as we will definitely need percentage if we are even a sniff of a top 4 finish.

Two weeks ago we did not turn up. The game against the saints was a bizarre grind before we took advantage of our dominance and crushed them in the third kicking 5.4 to 0.2. Against the Saints the Swans midfield worked on defensive running culminating in the Saints being restricted to 2.6 18 up to three quarter time. The return of Ruck Jesus saw him get beasted in the HOs but was arguably more effective around the ground than Marshall as he also contributed a goal, 7 clearances and 8 score involvements. Our whipping boys lit it up with Lloyd recording 39 disposals and looking down right effective. In fact our, entire HBF contingent were immense with Blakey recording 31 disposals and Florent 27 with a brilliant goal in the third.

Now, lets talk about Stephens. Personally, I believe he played his best game for the Swans as he was allowed to gut run and be a link up player. The kid needs a consistent run at this level. He is a traditional winger so when our grunt mids are off the boil, so will he. Need to give him time to develop in the firsts. A rotating wing/HFF or JMac, Campbell, Stephens and Gulden could blossom beautifully given time.

Match ups:

Buddy vs… Laverde?

Look, it most likely will not happen but probably best chance to kinda get close to 13. He has looked fantastic playing up the ground, setting up team mates and being an overall menace. If he does play up I expect maybe 2-3 goals with a heap of assists to Heeney, Logan and Hayward. For someone who was on a downward trajectory, 30 goals from 12 games going at 2.5 goals per game is juicy.

The Macs vs Two Meter Peter and Jones

This makes sense on paper but could easily see Rampe taking Jones and Paddy taking Stringer or vice versa. We look to be relatively well matched for their forwards. If really depends on who Horse wants to be that floating interceptor.

Rowbottom vs Shiel

I personally would like to see this as a head to head in the middle to make Shiel accountable as Shiel does not like the tough stuff. He has been in very good nick for the Bombers recently, but with a bit of Rowbottom attention, I feel that his influence could be curtailed.

Ins/Out:

Swans:

Big call but Nil. Feel like we keep this line up unless injury strikes.

Dons:

Not sure and Dons fans could correct me but they need some KPDs in..

Ins: Parish, Brand, Reid

Outs:Ridley (inj), Heppell (inj), Durham


Swans by 44.

Bonus fun fact: This will be our second and last game at the MCG for this year.

1656215324955.png


Hopefully a successful 250th for Parker!

(How is Ariel Steinburg going by the way?)
 
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caesar88

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I'm expecting Essendon to be fired up, both because of their loss to West Coast and the absolute media frenzy that surrounded our last game (the Shiel, Merrett incidents.) However I think even a fired up Essendon should be simple enough to handle for us. If we can't, then we have no right being in the eight, let alone the top four.

I'd like to see:
No changes.

What I really want to see though:
  • Buddy outside the arc again. We have to give Reid & McDonald the same kind of space and separation they had in the Melbourne game the last time we played at the G.
  • Papley to pull his finger out. Everything from the playing for frees constantly to trying for the miracle goal at every opportunity. He has taken his status as The Energy in the forward line a tad too far for my liking.
  • Rowbottom to not be in a defensive role. He is poor in it every single time, yet we constantly do it. Pressure acts be damned. It's very easy to register a pressure act when you are giving your opponent a bear-hug from behind at every contest rather than going for the ball.
  • Clarke to get a job on Hind. This annoying bloke is the kind who will tear us a new one despite being a meh player. He was damaging for the Bombers a few weeks back in their best game of the year and Clarke showed what he can do limiting Sinclair's impact.
  • Reid to keep on keeping on.

Swans by 98 points.
 

mattpolo8

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Not a danger game. Treat it ruthlessly in my opinion. Essendon truly one of the worst 3 sides in the comp and we will show that.

We relish the G. Love the big ground.
Warner to have 30 touches and 2 goals in a best on.

Not our last game at the G this year, we'll find ourselves back there week 2 or week 3 ;)
 

Membling

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Not our last game at the G this year, we'll find ourselves back there week 2 or week 3 ;)
Negative ghost rider. Have them all at Marvel when in Melb :moustache:

And great preview Membling!

Cheers Ceasar. Was going to go down more match ups but then it becomes a boring wall of text that should read TL:DR Swans to win, Dons bad.
 

mattpolo8

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For those that aren't making changes: who are we sending Clarke to for a tag? Given we beat Essendon comfortably without tagging Parish (31 touches) and Mills went head to head with Merrett and won that match up.
 

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Kiama Chris

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For those that aren't making changes: who are we sending Clarke to for a tag? Given we beat Essendon comfortably without tagging Parish (31 touches) and Mills went head to head with Merrett and won that match up.
The team actually looked quite well balanced with the changes.
Still don't think we've got our forward patterns quite right to utilise Logan or Reid alongside Bud. Clarke didn't look lost. He can run with Hind.
Fox and Stephens did enough to stay. Both JMac and Cunningham will be short of a gallop so another week training or ressies will be good for them.
Important to stay focussed, bring our best and play for both win and %.
 

mattpolo8

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Hind or Ridley. Hind had 528mtr gained last week
Ridley won't play, injured.

Hind we did something right last game. He only had 18 touches. Wicks played, Bell played.

I just think, unless Clarke is going to kick another 2 goals, are we better off bringing in a fwd for him? Given it's a game where there's a high chance of a % booster, perhaps we should try and kick as many goals as we can.

I don't think we need to tag anyone in this game, nor every game, and I think thats the only role Clarke is good for.
 

Dangas

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Can't wait to attend this rare live game with my two mates who I haven't seen in a while (both Dons fans) and Dad who is a Bloods fan. Hope the contest is good and the boys come away with the win.

As it has been a while, recommendations for places to have a feed/drink prior to the game?
 

caesar88

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clarke

or even mcdonald if we want less talls

I reckon Jmac is too good to sit out when he isn't returning from significant time out

Which McInerney are you referring to?

I love him as a player but let's be honest he's been meh since those two games against North & West Coast, which was ten rounds ago.

FWIW I think he's clearly not 100%. His speed and running patterns have been poor of late and he doesn't have that usual gusto that he plays with. Knee's strapped up like Tutankhamun.

I think he's better than Clarke, Stephens etc. Could he play? Probably. Should we bother though, if those blokes are in form and delivering and it means we don't have to play McInerney even when he's not at 100%?
 

BloodySwan

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Ridley won't play, injured.

Hind we did something right last game. He only had 18 touches. Wicks played, Bell played.

I just think, unless Clarke is going to kick another 2 goals, are we better off bringing in a fwd for him? Given it's a game where there's a high chance of a % booster, perhaps we should try and kick as many goals as we can.

I don't think we need to tag anyone in this game, nor every game, and I think thats the only role Clarke is good for.
Clarke kicked 2 while playing a shut down role. I think he has more goal sense than people are giving him credit for. Plus we flood so much anyone we bring in will spend more time in the middle than the forward 50
 
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