Preview Round 17, 2019: Swans v Blues

Olian

Premiership Player
Jul 12, 2013
4,994
5,235
Between the Bridges
AFL Club
Sydney
Round 17
Swans v Blues
1:40 pm Saturday
SCG



Last week the Swans hadn’t beaten the Bombers at the MCG in 96 years. This week they play the Blues who they haven’t beaten at the MCG in a 103 years. Fortunately we are at the SCG which the Blues have won’t at since Will and Kate got married.

Of the last 5 encounters the Swans hold a 4-1 record. The Blues only win was at the MCG. Swans have had 3 wins at the SCG in that period by an average margin of 39 points over the Blues.

Pre sacking Bolton the Blues averaged 67 points for and 90 against this season. Under the David Teague era (all 4 games) Blues average 89 and only concede 86. Teague was the forwards coach under Bolton’s reign. So he has them scoring more which must have fallen on deaf ears with Bolts.

Pre sacking Bolton the Swans averaged 73 points for and 87 against. Since David Teague was appointed Swans also average 89 for but only concede 65. As the season has rolled along the Swans defence has improved.

Key contests
Ruck

Kreuzer v Cameron (if he isn’t fit then Aliir/Reid combo).

Kruezer has played in all 3 of the Blues win this year such is his importance to the team. Hitout wise he is having a great season only bettered by 2017 (which was his best statistical season ever).

If Cameron does play and gets more than three touches and two hitouts it will be a career best game.
Aliir had 22 hitouts (it doubled his tally for the year) and 8 clearances last week which was career best for him.

Midfield
Blues midfield will look better with Cripps in it after he missed the last couple. I think he’s a test this week but should be in. Outside of that they have Sam Walsh who is a favourite for the rising star. Amongst the rising stars he leads most categories like kicks and disposals etc. However he also has the 8th most turnovers in the competition and 16th for total changers. His last two games disposal efficiency has been 33% and 48%. The long season maybe catching up. Ed Curnow and Murphy have held up the midfield in Cripps absence well. Silvagne who has a surname to live up to is now a targger. The rest of the Blues is made up of high end draft picks still learning the game. Blues seem to have less ex-Giants or discards from other clubs in their team this year.

Swans midfield will rely on Parker, Hewett, Jones and Rowbottom to lead the way. Kennedy while still competitive has dropped back in pace (could be related to knee injury mid season).

Forwards - Blues
Curnow was the only one I knew and he’s out injured. So having looked at their line up from last week Casboult was centre half forward and Matthew Kennedy full forward. I thought Kennedy was recruited as a mid? Between them they kicked 5.4 last week which was a third of the Blues score. McKay is the leading goal kicker for the Blues and a good chance to return this week to bolster their forward line.

They have also Mitch McGovern who hasn’t set the world on fire this year.

Defence- Swans
Rampe, Melican and Mills have found form in the last month as a unit and should provide a tougher defensive unit than the Demons last week. O’Riordan has given the backline some much needed pace. Lloyd is still the king of short kicking sideways of no more than 15 metres. Dawson has played down back and his kicking in general play is a welcome addition.

Forwards - Swans
Reid, McCartin (if not down back) and Blakey will be the tall targets. Papley, Hayward, Rose and Ronke play the crumbing role. Papley leads the way in goals.
Ronke and Rose are most under pressure after last week. Although I think Rose can offer a little more around the ground.

Blues - Defence
Weitering, Marchbank and Jones are the main stays. However Marchbank is out for the rest of the season now and Weitering will need to pass a concussion test (should be ok). They have Simpson and Newman who will give them their run off the back line. Newman racked up the most possessions last week with 26 although he did turnover 8 of them (some things don't change).

Coaches
Teague has the Blues scoring more frequently and they are also running out games. Oddly in their two wins under him the Blues have been goal less at quarter time. The care taker coach effect on the players is that they all have lifted. The club has sacked the coach so next on the list is the players. A new coach may move on players so the pressure is on the playing list.

Longmire is hampered by not having a ruck. Aliir was great as the defacto ruck in the last two games but it also impacted the defence. At times last week it felt like we reverted to the old ways of stacking the defence. For instance Blakey took a mark in the first quarter against three Bombers. Where were the other Swans forwards? If you look at where Ronke got the ball for the whole game it was all in the defensive half. If Cameron is picked then Aliir can go back to a defensive role and the Swans can structurally have a better balance.

Ins/outs
Cameron (if fit) - Ronke

Conclusion
Swans defence should get them over the line by 25.
 

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SwansProudly

Premium Platinum
Sep 5, 2016
2,839
5,930
AFL Club
Sydney
Round 17
Swans v Blues
1:40 pm Saturday
SCG



Last week the Swans hadn’t beaten the Bombers at the MCG in 96 years. This week they play the Blues who they haven’t beaten at the MCG in a 103 years. Fortunately we are at the SCG which the Blues have won’t at since Will and Kate got married.

Of the last 5 encounters the Swans hold a 4-1 record. The Blues only win was at the MCG. Swans have had 3 wins at the SCG in that period by an average margin of 39 points over the Blues.

Pre sacking Bolton the Blues averaged 67 points for and 90 against this season. Under the David Teague era (all 4 games) Blues average 89 and only concede 86. Teague was the forwards coach under Bolton’s reign. So he has them scoring more which must have fallen on deaf ears with Bolts.

Pre sacking Bolton the Swans averaged 73 points for and 87 against. Since David Teague was appointed Swans also average 89 for but only concede 65. As the season has rolled along the Swans defence has improved.

Key contests
Ruck

Kreuzer v Cameron (if he isn’t fit then Aliir/Reid combo).

Kruezer has played in all 3 of the Blues win this year such is his importance to the team. Hitout wise he is having a great season only bettered by 2017 (which was his best statistical season ever).

If Cameron does play and gets more than three touches and two hitouts it will be a career best game.
Aliir had 22 hitouts (it doubled his tally for the year) and 8 clearances last week which was career best for him.

Midfield
Blues midfield will look better with Cripps in it after he missed the last couple. I think he’s a test this week but should be in. Outside of that they have Sam Walsh who is a favourite for the rising star. Amongst the rising stars he leads most categories like kicks and disposals etc. However he also has the 8th most turnovers in the competition and 16th for total changers. His last two games disposal efficiency has been 33% and 48%. The long season maybe catching up. Ed Curnow and Murphy have held up the midfield in Cripps absence well. Silvagne who has a surname to live up to is now a targger. The rest of the Blues is made up of high end draft picks still learning the game. Blues seem to have less ex-Giants or discards from other clubs in their team this year.

Swans midfield will rely on Parker, Hewett, Jones and Rowbottom to lead the way. Kennedy while still competitive has dropped back in pace (could be related to knee injury mid season).

Forwards - Blues
Curnow was the only one I knew and he’s out injured. So having looked at their line up from last week Casboult was centre half forward and Matthew Kennedy full forward. I thought Kennedy was recruited as a mid? Between them they kicked 5.4 last week which was a third of the Blues score. McKay is the leading goal kicker for the Blues and a good chance to return this week to bolster their forward line.

They have also Mitch McGovern who hasn’t set the world on fire this year.

Defence- Swans
Rampe, Melican and Mills have found form in the last month as a unit and should provide a tougher defensive unit than the Demons last week. O’Riordan has given the backline some much needed pace. Lloyd is still the king of short kicking sideways of no more than 15 metres. Dawson has played down back and his kicking in general play is a welcome addition.

Forwards - Swans
Reid, McCartin (if not down back) and Blakey will be the tall targets. Papley, Hayward, Rose and Ronke play the crumbing role. Papley leads the way in goals.
Ronke and Rose are most under pressure after last week. Although I think Rose can offer a little more around the ground.

Blues - Defence
Weitering, Marchbank and Jones are the main stays. However Marchbank is out for the rest of the season now and Weitering will need to pass a concussion test (should be ok). They have Simpson and Newman who will give them their run off the back line. Newman racked up the most possessions last week with 26 although he did turnover 8 of them (some things don't change).

Coaches
Teague has the Blues scoring more frequently and they are also running out games. Oddly in their two wins under him the Blues have been goal less at quarter time. The care taker coach effect on the players is that they all have lifted. The club has sacked the coach so next on the list is the players. A new coach may move on players so the pressure is on the playing list.

Longmire is hampered by not having a ruck. Aliir was great as the defacto ruck in the last two games but it also impacted the defence. At times last week it felt like we reverted to the old ways of stacking the defence. For instance Blakey took a mark in the first quarter against three Bombers. Where were the other Swans forwards? If you look at where Ronke got the ball for the whole game it was all in the defensive half. If Cameron is picked then Aliir can go back to a defensive role and the Swans can structurally have a better balance.

Ins/outs
Cameron (if fit) - Ronke

Conclusion
Swans defence should get them over the line by 25.
Thanks Olian :) :)
 

GotTheGoodes

Bloods
Mar 15, 2010
18,073
27,965
Australia
AFL Club
Sydney
Round 17
Swans v Blues
1:40 pm Saturday
SCG



Last week the Swans hadn’t beaten the Bombers at the MCG in 96 years. This week they play the Blues who they haven’t beaten at the MCG in a 103 years. Fortunately we are at the SCG which the Blues have won’t at since Will and Kate got married.

Of the last 5 encounters the Swans hold a 4-1 record. The Blues only win was at the MCG. Swans have had 3 wins at the SCG in that period by an average margin of 39 points over the Blues.

Pre sacking Bolton the Blues averaged 67 points for and 90 against this season. Under the David Teague era (all 4 games) Blues average 89 and only concede 86. Teague was the forwards coach under Bolton’s reign. So he has them scoring more which must have fallen on deaf ears with Bolts.

Pre sacking Bolton the Swans averaged 73 points for and 87 against. Since David Teague was appointed Swans also average 89 for but only concede 65. As the season has rolled along the Swans defence has improved.

Key contests
Ruck

Kreuzer v Cameron (if he isn’t fit then Aliir/Reid combo).

Kruezer has played in all 3 of the Blues win this year such is his importance to the team. Hitout wise he is having a great season only bettered by 2017 (which was his best statistical season ever).

If Cameron does play and gets more than three touches and two hitouts it will be a career best game.
Aliir had 22 hitouts (it doubled his tally for the year) and 8 clearances last week which was career best for him.

Midfield
Blues midfield will look better with Cripps in it after he missed the last couple. I think he’s a test this week but should be in. Outside of that they have Sam Walsh who is a favourite for the rising star. Amongst the rising stars he leads most categories like kicks and disposals etc. However he also has the 8th most turnovers in the competition and 16th for total changers. His last two games disposal efficiency has been 33% and 48%. The long season maybe catching up. Ed Curnow and Murphy have held up the midfield in Cripps absence well. Silvagne who has a surname to live up to is now a targger. The rest of the Blues is made up of high end draft picks still learning the game. Blues seem to have less ex-Giants or discards from other clubs in their team this year.

Swans midfield will rely on Parker, Hewett, Jones and Rowbottom to lead the way. Kennedy while still competitive has dropped back in pace (could be related to knee injury mid season).

Forwards - Blues
Curnow was the only one I knew and he’s out injured. So having looked at their line up from last week Casboult was centre half forward and Matthew Kennedy full forward. I thought Kennedy was recruited as a mid? Between them they kicked 5.4 last week which was a third of the Blues score. McKay is the leading goal kicker for the Blues and a good chance to return this week to bolster their forward line.

They have also Mitch McGovern who hasn’t set the world on fire this year.

Defence- Swans
Rampe, Melican and Mills have found form in the last month as a unit and should provide a tougher defensive unit than the Demons last week. O’Riordan has given the backline some much needed pace. Lloyd is still the king of short kicking sideways of no more than 15 metres. Dawson has played down back and his kicking in general play is a welcome addition.

Forwards - Swans
Reid, McCartin (if not down back) and Blakey will be the tall targets. Papley, Hayward, Rose and Ronke play the crumbing role. Papley leads the way in goals.
Ronke and Rose are most under pressure after last week. Although I think Rose can offer a little more around the ground.

Blues - Defence
Weitering, Marchbank and Jones are the main stays. However Marchbank is out for the rest of the season now and Weitering will need to pass a concussion test (should be ok). They have Simpson and Newman who will give them their run off the back line. Newman racked up the most possessions last week with 26 although he did turnover 8 of them (some things don't change).

Coaches
Teague has the Blues scoring more frequently and they are also running out games. Oddly in their two wins under him the Blues have been goal less at quarter time. The care taker coach effect on the players is that they all have lifted. The club has sacked the coach so next on the list is the players. A new coach may move on players so the pressure is on the playing list.

Longmire is hampered by not having a ruck. Aliir was great as the defacto ruck in the last two games but it also impacted the defence. At times last week it felt like we reverted to the old ways of stacking the defence. For instance Blakey took a mark in the first quarter against three Bombers. Where were the other Swans forwards? If you look at where Ronke got the ball for the whole game it was all in the defensive half. If Cameron is picked then Aliir can go back to a defensive role and the Swans can structurally have a better balance.

Ins/outs
Cameron (if fit) - Ronke

Conclusion
Swans defence should get them over the line by 25.
Cracking Preview!

Thanks Olian!
 

Bonz

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Sep 14, 2007
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Any chance Longmire will line up Kennedy directly on Cripps again (If he returns from injury).

I think that move worked really well for us earlier in the year.
 

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Bloodied52

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May 24, 2017
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Well it worked last time so I am not opposed to it.

Only issue is before the last game Kennedy wasn't in the greatest of form, so I felt like Longmire played him on Cripps to try and run him into form.
JPK cannot raise a gallop and Cripps is returning from a foot injury (given his size that is the equivalent to a bruised root of the prodigious 'faraway tree'), so I guess they will treacle out the game in each other's company.
 

Bonz

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Sep 14, 2007
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Preview thread on Swans board = 1 Page
Preview thread on Carlton board = 17 pages
Difference in teams positions.

This season the Swans are on their first lull in years, whilst we have shown form in patches this year there hasn't been that consistency (rebuilding year), we are also coming off a pretty deflating loss.

Carlton, whilst being pretty poor for most of the year are coming off their most successful patch in quite some time, this would be pretty exciting for their supporters so they would have renewed optimism.
 
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