Preview Round 17 v Sydney; Sunday Sep 13, 6:10pm; Cazaly's Stadium, Cairns

[dlanod]

I'll say it up front - I was a lot more concerned about the Gold Coast game than the Swans game. All things considered, we should win this easily and in the last 18 months we've been very good at winning the games we should win (unlike other teams that shall remain nameless) and this has been a big part of why we're up the pointy end of the top 8 instead of playing in the shallow end.

With that caveat out of the way, the biggest issue of writing a preview this week is that I just don't recognise a bunch of players in the Sydney team any more after they've been devestated by injury. Our list might have ticked upwards in the last couple of weeks, but here's a list of players I recognise from the Sydney injury list:
- Franklin
- Heeney
- Hewett
- Mills
- Naismith
- Rampe
- Ronke

Here's a list of players I wouldn't have recognised prior to this year from last round's Swans' team:
- Clarke
- Fox
- McInerney
- McLean
- Wicks
And I recognise Thurlow but didn't realise he was with the Swans now.

The latter doesn't quite outnumber the former but that's only because I saw enough random games to recognise guys like McCartin, Rowbottom and Dawson.

The Swans have one of the more unusual formlines with honourable losses to good teams like Richmond, Collingwood and Port, and bad teams like Carlton, but also wins over top 8 contenders (at the time) Melbourne and GWS and blowouts to teams that aren't (Fremantle and the Suns). They're basically the prototypical young team - bringing energy to pretty much every contest but their skills and timing isn't quite there yet. They're also the prototypical team that we've knocked off without too much concern, depending on how one counts the NM win.

I don't know that there's a heap of substantial analysis warranted here - we should be stronger across the field, with their midfield slightly bolstered by the return of Kennedy but still leaving them with a shallow rotation compared to ours effectively running two whole rotations deep, our forwards should enjoy time without Rampe, and our backline up against inexperienced forwards like McCartin. Papley is probably their best player at the moment but he still plays primarily in bursts, like Rayner but without the supporting cast.

Still interesting tidbit: one of us has made the finals every year since '04 but never both of us in the same year.

 

[Nunez]

Nice preview dlanod !

Just hoping we get the points and go through unscathed. Need to keep the soldiers fit and lock in top two - big game in that context but realistically we should be much too strong for the Swans.

 

[jackess]

Looked like McCartin played down back last week and played reasonably well.

Would be good to play Gardiner on Papley. Otherwise Answerth can shut him down.

 

[rusty08]

Don't think we'll bring in both Witho and Birch for this. Makes us too slow imo. Ah Chee to stay back and a pressure forward with experience to replace Linc.
Out/ bez, starc, linc
In/ birch,cey/dev, christensen

 

[jackess]

If CEY comes in that would mean we have 4 indigenous players in the selected side which must be close to the highest we've had for a long time.

Gone are the bad old days of only having Ash McGrath on the list.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I've been impressed with Jordan Dawson, thumping kick and a good mark too. One to watch out for.

 

[Quigley]

I've been impressed with Jordan Dawson, thumping kick and a good mark too. One to watch out for.

He was good last week. Overall I have been a bit disappointed in him in his time at Sydney. His kicking was his strength and although it has been long he has not consistently hit targets. He reminds me a lot of Allison.

For the Swans it will be interesting to see if Blakey gets up for the game. He copped a significant shoulder collision and then got a couple of other whacks on it during the game. The move of him to the midfield is a big one for the Swans and he has looked a class above the other youngsters they have playing in there.

Mills went out with a calf but there was talk that he would be a chance of their last game. Fair chance he is back against us which is a big step up for their defence.

 

[KissKiss]

Not really sure on the changes this week.

Assuming forced changes:

• CEY/Matho/Dev/Eli for Berry. Assume any of them could do a similar role. Half big bodied mid, half forward and a bit of wing
• Birchall for Starc isnt like for like. I assume that Ah Chee will have to go down back again for one of the quicker lock down roles. But where does that leave us with Birch. Not sure he has the flexibility to play other roles. Witho also isnt like for like
• Linc again we dont have that many other small forwards. Ah Chee can play the role but that depends on the above backline changes. Bundy could come in or Cox I guess. Otherwise we are probably looking at a mid playing an unusual role for them

Personally I wouldnt play Archie Smith again (despite being ok in the last quarter) but the coaching staff dont agree with me so will just cop that one now.

 

[Quigley]

On the ins for us you would think it is a good opportunity to get another game into Robertson, this time with more midfield time. Berry Jnr and CEY are the two others I think have a good shot at getting a game. I would be surprised if Birchall does not come straight back in for Starc.

 

[Dalions]

Can’t imagine Linc getting up with a 4 day turnaround after that hit.

Outs: Bez, Starc And Linc
Ins: CEY/Matho, Birch and Tom Bez

AhChee to stay back and hopefully play a similar role to Starce

 

[KissKiss]

Ah forgot about TBerry. He would make sense as an in for Linc

 

[M Malice]

Personally I wouldnt play Archie Smith again (despite being ok in the last quarter) but the coaching staff dont agree with me so will just cop that one now.

The coaching group are always going to stick up and be positive about their players in public... they are obviously not sold on Archie's ability though as they were prepared to trade him last off season.

 

[briztoon]

Personally I’d like to see TBerry in for Linc, Robertson in for JBerry, and Witho in for Starc.

 

[Quigley]

Not really sure on the changes this week.

Assuming forced changes:

• CEY/Matho/Dev/Eli for Berry. Assume any of them could do a similar role. Half big bodied mid, half forward and a bit of wing
• Birchall for Starc isnt like for like. I assume that Ah Chee will have to go down back again for one of the quicker lock down roles. But where does that leave us with Birch. Not sure he has the flexibility to play other roles. Witho also isnt like for like
• Linc again we dont have that many other small forwards. Ah Chee can play the role but that depends on the above backline changes. Bundy could come in or Cox I guess. Otherwise we are probably looking at a mid playing an unusual role for them

Personally I wouldnt play Archie Smith again (despite being ok in the last quarter) but the coaching staff dont agree with me so will just cop that one now.

Smith is probably the closest like for like with have for Starc.

If we wanted to add something to our back group I would give Madden a game. He is the guy who can give the run that I think the coaching staff hoped Ah Chee would. Madden is lightning quick and likes to use it. If we did give him a shot I would move Ah Chee back forward and still bring Birchall back in. Surround the two newbie defenders with experienced guys.

Berry Jnr I think is a chance to come in for McCarthy and further ramp up the forward pressure.

Archie was okay last night but he does take time away from Oscar and that is a net loss for us. With that said I don't have much of an issue with him continuing for the next couple of games to take the pressure off Oscar and let him go into the finals a bit fresher. At that stage though I would be very much for dropping him for someone who lets Oscar play the minutes he has been and offers something else in other parts of the ground.

 

[jackess]

Are the conditions likely to impact selection? If it's dewy or wet or humid we might favour big bodies over speed and skill

 

[KissKiss]

Smith is probably the closest like for like with have for Starc.

If we wanted to add something to our back group I would give Madden a game. He is the guy who can give the run that I think the coaching staff hoped Ah Chee would. Madden is lightning quick and likes to use it. If we did give him a shot I would move Ah Chee back forward and still bring Birchall back in. Surround the two newbie defenders with experienced guys.

Berry Jnr I think is a chance to come in for McCarthy and further ramp up the forward pressure.

Archie was okay last night but he does take time away from Oscar and that is a net loss for us. With that said I don't have much of an issue with him continuing for the next couple of games to take the pressure off Oscar and let him go into the finals a bit fresher. At that stage though I would be very much for dropping him for someone who lets Oscar play the minutes he has been and offers something else in other parts of the ground.

You have been on Madden for a while, I dont know much about him these days though. Is he more lockdown or more running off his man style? Starc does well in doing a bit of both

 

[Dylan12]

If CEY comes in that would mean we have 4 indigenous players in the selected side which must be close to the highest we've had for a long time.

Gone are the bad old days of only having Ash McGrath on the list.

In 2005 we had all of Chris Johnson, Ash McGrath, Anthony Corrie and Darryl White all playing lots of games that year and then in 06, following White's retirement, Jason Roe came in and played 15 games in his debut year, so we may have had four also play together in 06.

I said overnight in the Changes thread that I'd like to see Allen Christensen come in for a farewell game for all of his work on and off field, as unlikely as it would be, but agree, it is great our indigenous representation has changed so much since those days of Ash McGrath in the late 00's and early teen years.

As for Christensen, he would be perfect for the conditions up in Cairns. The ball will be dewy / wet, he is a great set shot and adds leadership to the forward line with Linc likely going out.

I still think this will be a danger game as conditions such as those in Cairns are a real equalizer and you just know Sydney are going to bring us down to their crappy level.

 

[StevoJenkins]

CEY, Cox and Witho for JBerry, McCarthy and Starcevich.

Wouldn’t bring in TBerry in a side that already has Coleman. Both are low possession players that do the same thing, with Berry not looking up to it in his last game. I also wouldn't bring Birchall back in, the guy gets exposed way too often, and I think this should be his last season.

 

[Quigley]

You have been on Madden for a while, I dont know much about him these days though. Is he more lockdown or more running off his man style? Starc does well in doing a bit of both

I have not seen him this year but I did watch all the reserves games last year. With Madden I like more the idea rather than necessarily the reality. The pace is something which I could see making an impact and in theory could improve out side. His kicking style has been a work in progress with him still having a tendency to lean forward with his head down and over the ball too much. With that said he can still make some nice things happen by foot and his option taking seems good and he has some flair. Defensively he can be a little lost at times but he has the pace to paper over the cracks so he can give his opponent a bit of rope and not be punished. His tackling is good.

 

[Tom14]

I have not seen him this year but I did watch all the reserves games last year. With Madden I like more the idea rather than necessarily the reality. The pace is something which I could see making an impact and in theory could improve out side. His kicking style has been a work in progress with him still having a tendency to lean forward with his head down and over the ball too much. With that said he can still make some nice things happen by foot and his option taking seems good and he has some flair. Defensively he can be a little lost at times but he has the pace to paper over the cracks so he can give his opponent a bit of rope and not be punished. His tackling is good.

Unless we have another player ruled out for the season I don't think he can play as a Cat B - we've already had Eagles and Fullarton play due to Adams and McFadyen being out for the season. So Madden can't play seniors unless we get another serious injury.

 

[davemc_lions]

Smith will play as they want 2 rucks..
We where 2 down on the bench and he only played 66% game time.
He had 8 disposals I say half missed targets, 8 hitouts, 2 frees against and -3 meters gained..
Also add taking Linc out.

Was a better game then he played for a while although not great. Pretty sure I saw one handball into a players back
I had hopes for him. Although between him, Ballenden, Skinner and Eagles we really need a better 3rd ruck.
Or 2nd ruck if Martin does not play 2021

you say Berry,Starc and Linc out
Birchall in. you think Ah Chee down back again playing Starc role.
So then who in for Berry and Linc.
you think CEY plus one of T Berry, Dev, E Smith or tried players Bundy/Matho.

 

[BigCat2]

Mitchell Hinge would be a good chance to come in for Berry one would think, as he was in contention for last night's game. Can play midfield/wing.

My guesses:
Out: Berry, Starcevich, McCarthy
In: Hinge, Birchall, TBerry

 

[Milux]

Hard to imagine our last 2 top rated draft picks Smith and Robertson not getting much of a go. Its such a weird spot to not have to rely on fresh young talent now we have a solid team. Considering every other year they'd be thrown to the wolves.

 

[fugitive]

All I want is 4 points and no injuries although I don’t expect Sydney to lie down easily.

 

[davemc_lions]

Hard to imagine our last 2 top rated draft picks Smith and Robertson not getting much of a go. Its such a weird spot to not have to rely on fresh young talent now we have a solid team. Considering every other year they'd be thrown to the wolves.

yes and did not think Dev's game was crap when he played.