Preview Round 18: 103 is the Magic Number

[Defacto]

lenny just retired, although we get to see him play the year out. football just doesnt feel the same

 

[Kram]

lenny just retired, although we get to see him play the year out. football just doesnt feel the same

Yeah a very good footballer and career.

 

[McClane]

103 is the smallest number requiring 18 letters when spelled out in English!

18 teams in the league, spooky

 

[Pavs_Risotto]

And the age of Apeness..?

 

[ImperialPurple]

leungtl you win the interwebz by #103

 

[Borry]

Another sub 40 point score for the opposition this coming Saturday me thinks.

Would love a reverse result of that 2009 match.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Allikat]

If McPharlin's up this weekend I'd love to see if our boys can keep a team completely scoreless. Like, make that our aim for the match. I think if they put 100% effort into it we could do it.

 

[Clems Knee]

If McPharlin's up this weekend I'd love to see if our boys can keep a team completely scoreless. Like, make that our aim for the match. I think if they put 100% effort into it we could do it.

A bit too much hubris, I think. Pride comes before the fall. I want St Kilda to play their best game of the season for Lenny Hayes, give us a good hard game,


and lose by 110 points..

 

[Allikat]

You're right. And it'd be more impressive if we keep Sydney scoreless in the GF anyways.

 

[GilG]

Fremantle v St Kilda
Saturday July 19, 2014
Etihad Stadium, 2:40pm (Perth time)
Live on 7 & Fox Footy

Let’s be honest, it hasn’t been a great year for the Saints fans. Just have a look at this quick highlights package of their season so far:



That’s depressing enough to supress even the most overexcited arousal curve. Speaking of which…

Deciphering the Arousal Curve:

Those of you who are familiar with my previous posts will know that I have dedicated the past two years of my life attempting to crack the formula behind the AFL Player Ratings, but it’s just too hard. It doesn’t make sense. Somehow despite career worst seasons, our friend Nic Nat is still a top of the 2014 ruck rankings and Chad Wingard is the top Small-Medium forward.

Now I know what you’re thinking; “Hayden Ballantyne has been touted as a possible AA selection, where is he ranked this year?”

Well, just have a look at the esteemed company Sonny and he are in:

I can’t do this anymore guys. I confess that I gave up on this project in May because the only plausible theory is that the rankings are determined by some kind of random number generator, while the top players are already pre-selected based on the surveys they hand out to Auskick kids asking who their favourite player is.

(Having said this, I still believe the Player Rankings will eventually go down in history as Demetriou’s top innovation during his tenure of CEO)

Anyway, I've been working on a new project the last two months: Trying to decipher the mysterious ‘Arousal Curve’.

Lost in the midst of all the excitement of Pav’s 300th was a comment made by Ross Lyon in his post-match presser, where he referred to and gestured an “arousal curve”; and how it was important not to overexcite it.

For those of you who are unfamiliar, check out this video at the 2:12 mark:



It is understood that most of our journos here in WA are totally incompetent and actually do more harm than good to the game, so Ross was never questioned further about this. There were so many questions I needed answers to, but I sure wasn’t going to get them relying on this bunch of useless Wellinghams.

I tried googling “arousal curve” but that… was a huge mistake. I plead with you not to try it for your own benefit.

With the internet providing no useful leads (but great deals on curing certain dysfunctions), it became clear that this was going to require infiltration into the very heart of Ross Lyon intelligence – the coaches box.

Gaining access to the box was surprisingly easy. I went to the barber and told him to give me the worst haircut which was popular among rebellious teenage boys. I went back home to find old Royal Showbags and slapped on as many My Little Pony temporary tattoos that I could find. I bought a $5 Eagles jersey at Best & Less, went to the stadium, waltzed right past security and upstairs into the coaches box.

It was that simple.

The coaches box had this cold, damp feel to it where you could feel the lost ghosts of the past and the scuffed furniture suggested it was in dire need of refurbishment. It wasn’t pleasant at all, so I quickly walked towards the lower level of the box where Ross would sit and saw it straight away, neatly placed on the desk:

There it was, right in front of Ross Lyon’s chair. The answers I had sought explained on a lone piece of paper. It was so basic yet… it made sense.

Friends, this is it – Ross Lyon’s uncensored curve of acceptable arousal. I can't say I know what RTB's punishment is for overexciting one's arousal curve, but what I do know is that I sure as hell wouldn't want to be on the receiving end.

Last Time:

Teams haven’t been announced yet, but let’s have a look at who’s potentially in and out from the last time we played them:

OUT: Crichton, Faulks, Forster, Mellington, Moller, Crozier, Simpson, Hannath, Sheridan, Taberner, Silvagni, Ballantyne

IN: Fyfe, Mundy, McPharlin, Johnson, Dawson, Spurr, Mayne, Z.Clarke, Suban, Sylvia, Morabito, Apeness

Look, I’m not going to beat around the bush – I don’t know much about St Kilda outside of their scandals, but we’ve got a couple of handy in’s there who should claw back our previous losing margin of 71 points. Crowley will surely go to Montagna or Jack Steven (they combined for 94 touches) and this Justin Koschitzke chap who had 4 scoring shots (albeit 4 behinds) on one good leg in one quarter of football has retired now. That’s a shame, because it was just 12 months ago that there was fierce debate on this board on whether we should sign him for 2014. It seems appropriate that we also found out this week that he was only selected as Montagna switched GPS devices with him at training.

As long as we stick to our structures and hit the scoreboard with at least one point in the first quarter, we will have improved on our last hit out. Ballantyne out hampers our scoring ability but I’m confident my prodigal son buddy in Mayne will be able to fill the void and kick a bag.

My heart says we can win, but then my brain tells me this - has there ever been a 71 point swing between two opponents in the space of a game?

Crunching The Numbers:

Five years ago we decided to trial an experimental game plan in Adelaide where we would allow our opposition to score freely, apply no defensive pressure and be content with just one goal at the end. Although we lost that day by 117 points, it clearly didn’t stop the Brazillian soccer team from replicating us in their last two Finals matches. After putting that plan and Ryan Murphy in the ‘never again’ basket, we decided to run with our usual gameplan and ran out winners against the Crows by the tune of 56 points. That’s a 173 point swing, the largest single game turnaround ever achieved by our great club against any opponent.

What this means is that to break this club record against the Saints, we need to win by 103 points. With our current depth and game plan focusing on defensive pressure, it’s unlikely teams will blow us out again unless we decide on mass restings once again or sign the entire Eagles drafting department for the next 10 years. To put it in perspective, this is a once-in-a-generation (possibly lifetime) opportunity to topple this record which may not be broken again until Nat Fyfe’s future grandson retires. St Kilda haven’t broken their single game turnaround record in 95 years. Sydney were still South Melbourne when they achieved theirs in 1955. Hawthorn? 1979.

With no small forwards, we’re facing an uphill battle and we’ve become accustomed to the Freo taking their foot off the pedal with a comfy lead. But this is Ross Lyon seeing his ex-girlfriend again, and you know this time he’s not coming with gifts. So when you watch this game on Saturday, don’t just feel content with a 10 goal lead or keep yelling out “PERCENTAGE!” until the final siren. Fixate on this magic number of 103. That’s what we need to break the record. Keep cheering for it. If you’re lucky enough to be at the ground, let the players know. Tweet it to them pre-game. Yell it over the fence during the warm ups. Put it on the banner. Replace the “#GOFREO” letters in the cheer squad with a “#103”. LET’S BLOW THE ROOF OFF THE DOORS AND MAKE HISTORY!

103 points.

#believe.

The Form Guide:

Past 10 games:
Fremantle – WLWWWWWWWW (9-1)
St Kilda – LLLLLLLLLL (0-10)

Betting Odds:
Fremantle - $1.02
St Kilda - $12.00

Last Week:
Freo had a very ho-hum 76 point victory over GWS, which could have been less if GWS was able to run out games. With the margin sitting at 30 points at the long break and 41 at three-quarter time, the Dockers will be looking for a much quicker start to get that essential percentage over the rest of the competition. A victory will hand Freo 9 wins in a row.

St Kilda failed to kick a goal until one minute before half time against North Melbourne. In the last six weeks they rank #1 for clangers and I’m guessing their goal kicking accuracy isn’t that great either after booting 3.15 (33). But they are playing at Etihad and the roof might be closed so that helps I guess. Defeat will hand the Saints their 12th loss in a row.

The Prediction:

This guy will kick his first goal this year:

And all the blokes in white will run in from near and far to mob him. There will be tears of joy around the stadium. That is all.

lengutl, ripper post. Take a bow. Tipping it as Post of the Year, mate!

 

[UFO Tatsu]

lengutl, ripper post. Take a bow. Tipping it as Post of the Year, mate!

hold your horses ... we still haven't seen leungtl GF preview OP just yet

 

[Lost_Deputy]

Haven't posted since last years GF. However, after reading this preview I was registering so high on the arousal curve I immediately dug through old emails to find my pw so I could log in and praise the OP. He's a credit to himself

 

[thefreodockers]

hold your horses ... we still haven't seen leungtl GF preview OP just yet

I can't wait already.

I hope it includes a reference to a bloke in a phantom suit running out of a purple bus to do a cross to Before the Bounce where Seppo takes center stage.

 

[Freo_4eva]

The Mrs will wonder why im completely shattered when we win by 102 points

POTY

 

[Mr Dribble Kick]

Time for the Pav to jump to the top of the Coleman.

 

[Allikat]

so he needs 18 + whatever Schulz gets this Round

 

[AAACockburn]

After reading that. I might go chuck 50 on a Saints win.

 

[Freofalcon]

Great read.

 

[Seppo]

MRW I read this preview:

 

[Moo]

Where is the bit about dropping Pearce?

 

[Wee Jessies]

CIIIPO 103 points and get on the plane.

 

[Rors]

I so hope that we go over and just completely humiliate them.

That already happened in Round 7 when we lost by 145 points...

Maybe swap '103' to '146'....

 

[couldhavebeen]

RTB's nerves and warning antenna will be going off like crazy with Lenny Hays announcement of retirement as the Saints players will lift to do him proud .
I'm not saying they will win but their intensity will be right up there .

 

[electricfeel]

Post of the Year! leungtl quietly collecting many BF accolades after he won thread of the year last year with that GIF thread.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Yeah, St.Kilda always make me nervous. It's a feeling I haven't had since Richmond (for nothing, agreed) and it's for the same reason: They always lift against us. Throw in the Lenny retirement announcement it does have me thinking twice about the large scoreline. I'm tipping for there to be some very annoyed posters in the gameday thread ala last week up to 3QT because much like the weary 'peeking around the corner' scenes in most horror movies where the backing music suddenly stops: Something doesn't feel right...

Then again I had no such feelings against North so I'm thinking my Spidey-senses are s**t, Apeness will kick 5, Barlow to have 40 touches and the scoreline to both outscore and be more one-sided than the last cricket final I played in.

P.S. Ripping OP, deserves more love!