Preview Round 18, 2020: St.Kilda v GWS - Gabba, Friday 18th September, 7:50PM AEST *MARSHALL 50TH*

[Plugger35]

Even if Jake ate the pangolin that brought COVID into humans… a C grade KPD would have better than what we've been fielding against tall forward lines.

Austin, Joyce, Clavarino… no point having them on the list if we won't play them when we're desperate for a tall defender.

I hope this attitude shift is potentially worth missing the finals for, because Jake's trade value will have also tanked in the process.

Personally I don't care what Jake's attitude is if he can help us win games, would anyone be complaining about his attitude if he helped us beat West Coast?

Also would it be possible that Jake's shitty attitude is because he was dropped from the team when he was clearly in our best 22 while other underperforming players continue to get picked? Membrey for example has been in terrible form but because we have no other decent key forwards he keeps getting picked.

 

[Kennedy84]

Depends how much we lose by doesn't it?

Melbourne needed to have scored 49 more points throughout the year to clip our percentage at the moment.... A combination of around that, a saints loss and a Melbourne win, will cut it very fine.

 

[Kennedy84]

I'm not sure of the rules, but as saints fans I'm sure we can envisage the following scenario.
Saints and demons have identical percentage....demons advance because they beat us during the home and away season.

 

[2ballz]

Hopefully GWS are mentally shot after the year they have had.
They seem like a pretty soft side so if we come out firing I think we can really break the game open.

 

[Kildonan]

Anyone know how much Melbourne have to win by to jump us on the ladder if we lose?

They can only jump us if we lose.

The biggest margin win of the season was Port over Adelaide 110 to 35 (75pts)
A similar result for Melbourne would bring their % to 113.7 which will easily take them past us if we lose. A similar result for GWS will take them to 108% and we would drop to 102%.

WB will win taking them to 40 points but their % will not come into play unless we win and if so we will still be ahead of them. Their margin is likely to be modest as Freo are one of the best defensive teams in the comp.

If Freo win then WB will be stranded on 36 points with less than 103.8 % and they would most likely be the team to drop out unless we get smashed by 60+ pts.

The Collingwood v Port match will also come into play for final positions down our end. I suspect that Coll will lose to Port and be stuck on 38 pts. If we win and WB win then we both will jump Collingwood with no room for Melbourne even if they win by a trillion.

 

[malevu]

St Kilda have lost 4 of their last 6 matches. There were a few close margins (2pts, 3 pts) and there were a few disappointing performances (Geelong, WCE).

I think this season has been a real learning experience for our players. They have played a different style of footy - a more exciting brand with good success - and with that success comes analysts who have found ways to negate our strengths. How much have we learned from those losses? One thing for sure is the hurt that the players feel after such a loss. The sense of lost opportunity, of having let themselves down, their team mates down and the staff and fans down. All of that hurts.

GWS need to win and by a huge margin in order to play finals. I suspect that even if they beat us they will miss out.

If we can keep the game close for the first half or so, they will realise that they will not be playing finals. St Kilda will have everything to play for and GWS will just be making up the numbers. I think we will run over the top of GWS and waltz into 6th place with WB sneaking into 7th place and Collingwood taking the final spot.

If I'm right we will be shaping up against WB to renew an old rivalry in our first final.

My thoughts exactly. The Giants only real hope of playing finals is to flog us. It's so important for us not to get jumped and keep it a low scoring affair for the first half at least. Like you said once the Giants realise their finals chances are doomed we will hopefully see a drop off in their intensity in the second half.

Here's hoping anyway.

 

[KingsRansom]

Posted on Facebook before.

Light run at Noosa Oval this morning. Membrey trained and said he was at training yesterday! (I swear I didn't see him yesterday!!) Boys were upbeat, did some fun drills. They practiced dribbles from the boundary. I also watched some goal kicking from 40m at 45 degrees - only 20% went through the big sticks
It's obvious Ratts still loves the game. He was like a kid in a candy store, playing kick to kick - calling for the ball etc.
I also noticed Ratts had a long chat with Savage towards the end of the session. Read into that what you will - I couldn't hear the conversation. After chatting with Savage he pulled Lonie aside for a while.
It's been great having the team up here! I've caught up on all the footy I've missed the last few years, and hopefully it's not over yet!

 

[Midfield Gun]

Great stuff, thanks for the report! Beautiful day up here today, let's hope for the same tomorrow. Go Saints!

 

[Diehard Saint]

“Carlisle is on track for a recall after being left out of the side in four of the last five matches.

“It’s been a bit of a match-up thing (keeping Jake out),” Ratten said.

“We did go small against West Coast and we did pay a bit of a price for it, but some of the organisation behind the ball let us down as well.“


Come on Ratts.
Keeping Carlisle out was a “match up thing.”??
There was no match up for him against the Eagles?
With what was at stake in this game?

 

[puppy_dog7]

St Kilda have lost 4 of their last 6 matches. There were a few close margins (2pts, 3 pts) and there were a few disappointing performances (Geelong, WCE).

I think this season has been a real learning experience for our players. They have played a different style of footy - a more exciting brand with good success - and with that success comes analysts who have found ways to negate our strengths. How much have we learned from those losses? One thing for sure is the hurt that the players feel after such a loss. The sense of lost opportunity, of having let themselves down, their team mates down and the staff and fans down. All of that hurts.

GWS need to win and by a huge margin in order to play finals. I suspect that even if they beat us they will miss out.

If we can keep the game close for the first half or so, they will realise that they will not be playing finals. St Kilda will have everything to play for and GWS will just be making up the numbers. I think we will run over the top of GWS and waltz into 6th place with WB sneaking into 7th place and Collingwood taking the final spot.

If I'm right we will be shaping up against WB to renew an old rivalry in our first final.

I actually think the opposite. When teams have nothing to lose, they tend to play more on instinct and take the game on. Pride is also a very motivating factor. They will not want to end a disappointing season on a bad note i can guarantee that. If they take the game on i fear for our defenders if our pressure isnt high enough.

 

[Munga]

3:40 of the Ratts interview on the official website.

"Yeah we did go small against West Coast and we did pay a bit of a price for it, but some of our organisation behind the ball let us down as well. We had smalls on talls, and talls on smalls, and that's not the way to go about it"

Can I ask, whose fault is that? The coaching staff? The runners not getting messages of positional changes to the players quick enough? Or the on-field leadership (given we are talking about our defence - Geary?) not being vocal to switch players around?

On field leadership...and a lack of Carlisle. Our guys are not used to being in this position. We haven't had a season since 2011 where finals have been a realistic possibility...we've had mathematical possibilities, but never a true probability, until now. It's a new terrain, and these guys have never managed to climb this high before. They're going to have to reach the standard that the team demands of the occasion...and do it bloody sharpish.

Gearys basically there as captain and largely a backline co ordinator. He’s not the primary small back man, that’s Ben Paton. But Ratts & co clearly trust Gears and want him in regardless.

Still not sure what happens there next year, I feel better it’s time but I can’t imagine Gears will want to leave football.

Carlisle needs to get his head together and actually lead that back line, but I’m not sure he’s really gifted in that spot.

Is this not the sole reason that Geary gets a game? Being the experience backline coordinator/coach/leader? Dear me... Come on Saints!!!

I do love the honesty, but they just don't learn. It seems that every pre-match the fans can see the right tactics, the writing on the wall, selections... but the staff can't. It's like they get blinded by other things, ulterior motives, but not the sheer on field performances.

 

[malevu]

I was warming to Kent half way through the season but like a lot of left footers he's terribly one sided and he's not real quick. Nice kick though.

Hind was great against Gold Coast but hasn't done a thing since. Clearly he's not a permanent forward option going forward. Maybe worth a try off half back if ever we get injuries there.

Lonie just seems undersized to me but is a clever player if he gets his hands on it. Interesting that other clubs are sniffing around him. I doubt anyone would be interested in Kent or Hind. Probably we just go with Lonie and hope he can somehow get to the next level.

Not sold on Parker. The guys got obvious talent but he just needs to embrace the team ethic in the same way that Long has and stop trying to be a one man highlight reel.

No wonder the HF spot is a weekly merry go round. We may as well play Savage there. His ouput wouldn't be any less and the guy definitely knows where the goals are. That's hardly a long term prospect either.

 

[puppy_dog7]

How do you explain the performance against brisbane with geary and carlisle down there?

We played great that game

i wouldn't say our backline was great that game though. They missed a lot of genuine opportunities

 

[Munga]

How do you explain the performance against brisbane with geary and carlisle down there?

We played great that game

Not really. 13 shots to 20, we were lucky to still be in it. We would've been pinching that one.

 

[AirWinmar]

“Carlisle is on track for a recall after being left out of the side in four of the last five matches.

“It’s been a bit of a match-up thing (keeping Jake out),” Ratten said.

“We did go small against West Coast and we did pay a bit of a price for it, but some of the organisation behind the ball let us down as well.“


Come on Ratts.
Keeping Carlisle out was a “match up thing.”??
There was no match up for him against the Eagles?
With what was at stake on this game?

Ratts must have been listening to P66. Thought Eagles went in too tall in their forward line and would be too slow for our fast backs

 

[TheEnsign]

Out: Jones, Hind, Kent

In: Hanners, Carlisle, Bytel / Dunstan.

Hind out for form and Hanners comes in to probably play a similar role (mid / rest forward a lot).

Jones needs to be replaced with another 'full time' mid imo. Dunstan or Bytel the only real choices there despite the different game style.

Carlisle needs to be back in imo and Kent is the obvious choice to drop to free up a spot.

Butler and Lonie playing small forward with Billings, Sincs and Hanners rotating through (Hanners a lot) isn't amazing but isn't terrible.

 

[Munga]

Confirmed-
Dan Hannebery will face the giants.

It's time. This is why he's paid the big bucks. BOG coming up.

I actually think the opposite. When teams have nothing to lose, they tend to play more on instinct and take the game on. Pride is also a very motivating factor. They will not want to end a disappointing season on a bad note i can guarantee that. If they take the game on i fear for our defenders if our pressure isnt high enough.

Exactly. GWS will leave it all on the field, no tomorrows. We might get a few goals up then go into our shells again thinking of the next match.

But if they put their big guns in the midfield, it could be very tough for us anyway.

 

[Saintbloke]

Play like a team and we'll win. Play with a few passengers and we will lose by a fair bit. I think Billings and Membrey owe us a big games and King could try holding a few marks as a 200cm key forward.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Personally I don't care what Jake's attitude is if he can help us win games, would anyone be complaining about his attitude if he helped us beat West Coast?

Also would it be possible that Jake's shitty attitude is because he was dropped from the team when he was clearly in our best 22 while other underperforming players continue to get picked? Membrey for example has been in terrible form but because we have no other decent key forwards he keeps getting picked.

It might also be possible that with being in hub life 24/7, people's inability to get away from Jake outside of normal football commitments is giving some of them the serious sh1ts.

And in Jake's defense, he'd be accustomed to holding himself together and getting his release within his personal time.
The guy has got a baby due, and who knows where his Mrs is at the moment, and there's nowhere for him to go and be an f***wit and blow off steam.
The club hasn't yet entertained contract talks, and he'll know he's in for a 6 figure pay cut no matter what.
He'd also be aware that he might have to move clubs again right at the time StKilda is showing promise for the future.

I reckon for guy with known issues, he'd be under the most stress of his life right now. Others in the same situation might have even chosen to leave the hub.

The club have dealt with it. We should probably move on too...

 

[Plugger35]

Important that we start well and nail our chances early on as scoring seems to get harder as these night games go on with the ground and ball getting slippery.

 

[70s sainter]

Hopefully knowing that every point counts and could be the difference should have us playing desperate footy for every minute of the game .
As for them dropping away towards the end if it’s close , I don’t think that’s a factor because they’ll still want to finish their season with a win . With these shortened quarters teams tend not to go away that easy either .

 

[kernelT]

I guess GWS need to absolutely belt us and then also hope for two unlikely results to fall their way, so hopefully if we're close in the first half their drive falls away and they dial it in.

Guys like Geary, Ross, Carlisle, Sinclair, Lonie and even Kent need to play like this is a grand final… there's no guarantee they'll get another opportunity to play finals after this.

 

[Pbft]

Had a pretty good year on the punt so far using some key stats.

My observations are that teams need to get the ball inside F50 to score on most occasions.

Of interest, GWS biggest problem this year has been their IF50’s. Last year they were ranked #4 for this stat. This year they are ranked #17.

While on the other hand we are ranked #6 for conceding opposing IF50’s.

Backing our boys in at 1-24 winning margin.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Remboy]

I guess GWS need to absolutely belt us and then also hope for two unlikely results to fall their way, so hopefully if we're close in the first half their drive falls away and they dial it in.

Watching them last week I think they already are.

 

[StCicatriz]

it would be a massive feather in the cap of lethers if hanners can have a good game on the weekend and push this side to finals but even one better really have a good final game.

that would massively justify the $$$ parted with the get him into our club