Review Round 18, 2023 - Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Whats frustrating is the morning after I woke up to all of these articles saying "they're not good enough", "they're mentally weak", "the lions just can't win at the MCG", "I'm completely writing them off", "they should just concede that this is a wasted premiership window". All of that after a 1 point loss to a top 4 side.

If we had hung on those journalists would be writing "An inspiring fictory from the Lions", "They are just as much a chance of winning the flag as Collingwood & Port", "they can achieve anything", "the MCG holds no fears for them anymore".

Now this is going to hang over our heads for the rest of the year until or if we win another final at the MCG.

 

[Tom14]

I posted the AFL xscore results on Friday night - here is the Herald Sun's stat:



Melbourne were +29 on expected score, functionally a 5 goal difference. That's the equal second highest of the season. We copped Melbourne being +16 in round 2 this year as well. Dees have either been the most accurate team in the comp (first 5-6 rounds or so) or the worst (the last 5-6 or so rounds, culminating in the GWS game where they kicked 32 points less than expected).

As frustrating the loss is it required us to give up a shocking start, lose our heads in the last 7 minutes, Gawn, Petracca and Viney to have sensational performances (definitely Gawn's best of the year) - and for the Dees to be absurdly accurate to get over the line by a point.

Very frustrating one to lose but don't think it changes my opnion of the team apart from the fact that we missed out on a chance to make up ground on Port.

 

[martinson]

I posted the AFL xscore results on Friday night - here is the Herald Sun's stat:



Melbourne were +29 on expected score, functionally a 5 goal difference. That's the equal highest of the season. We copped Melbourne being +16 in round 2 this year as well. Dees have either been the most accurate team in the comp (first 5-6 rounds or so) or the worst (the last 10 or so rounds, culminating in the GWS game where they kicked 32 points less than expected).

As frustrating the loss is it required us to give up a shocking start, lose our heads in the last 7 minutes, Gawn, Petracca and Viney to have sensational performances (definitely Gawn's best of the year) - and for the Dees to be absurdly accurate to get over the line by a point.

Very frustrating one to lose but don't think it changes my opnion of the team apart from the fact that we missed out on a chance to make up ground on Port.

Speaking to someone close to the Dees they've been working really hard on their goalkicking , especially the Petracca type ones from stoppages. They recognised a flaw in their game and they've been practising constantly to address it.

So whilst I thought they were just having a golden day early it is something that they've put a lot of hard yards into.

They also missed a few in the last quarter as well.

 

[Tom14]

Speaking to someone close to the Dees they've been working really hard on their goalkicking , especially the Petracca type ones from stoppages. They recognised a flaw in their game and they've been practising constantly to address it.

So whilst I thought they were just having a golden day early it is something that they've put a lot of hard yards into.

They also missed a few in the last quarter as well.

Must have only been in the last 2 weeks. Prior to the saints game they'd kicked at least 2 goals less than data says they should have for 5 straight weeks.

Dees have pretty much either been the most accurate side in the comp for large portions of the season, or the most inaccurate. They are probably somewhere in the middle but unfortunately we've hit them twice when they've been on.

You are correct that they missed a few in the last quarter, but a bunch in the third term in particularly that they kicked were very low % chances (eg Woewodin's goal which was further out that Will's and under greater pressure).

 

[martinson]

Must have only been in the last 2 weeks. Prior to the saints game they'd kicked at least 2 goals less than data says they should have for 5 straight weeks.

Dees have pretty much either been the most accurate side in the comp for large portions of the season, or the most inaccurate. They are probably somewhere in the middle but unfortunately we've hit them twice when they've been on.

You are correct that they missed a few in the last quarter, but a bunch in the third term in particularly that they kicked were very low % chances (eg Woewodin's goal which was further out that Will's and under greater pressure).

I believe it's something they've seriously addressed of recent times.

Maybe it all came together for them for periods this week , besides which you can't expect to win games off the basis that the opposition won't be accurate.

 

[Tom14]

I believe it's something they've seriously addressed of recent times.

Maybe it all came together for them for periods this week , besides which you can't expect to win games off the basis that the opposition won't be accurate.

No disagreement from me on that, its our own fault that we lost. But it does tell me that there wasn't something fundamentally wrong with 80% of the game so no need to drastically change our gameplan, structure etc.

 

[martinson]

No disagreement from me on that, its our own fault that we lost. But it does tell me that there wasn't something fundamentally wrong with 80% of the game etc so no need to drastically change our gameplan, structure etc.

That's it.

It's mental and strategy in clutch moments.

Everyone knows we went defensive too soon . And that a lot of our players play on emotion and when they let down they can let down bigly.

Need to inject more discipline and mental hardness. It's doable.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

I've noticed in our last 3 wins against Melbourne they've come at us late in all of these games and we were fortunate to hang on. In all of those games we were 20 points up or more at some point in the last quarter. We probably had this lesson coming, the same thing happened in the last 10 minutes at that game at the Gabba against them earlier in the season and we did it again in this game except this time we payed for it.

Lesson: Keep making an effort of scoring even when we think the margin is beyond the opposite.

 

[Bucking Beads]

The teams mentality is all wrong. I heard Zorko on the radio talking about taking time off the clock!! Why not just keep playing football and playing the way that got you in front on the scoreboard. Be ruthless! This team is the most talented list in the comp but continually get out worked when it matters.

 

[Lionheart182]

No it's not.

There is absolutely no reason why Gunston and Rayner can't both play well at the same time in the same team.

They both had good games against WCE last week . Blaming Gunston for Rayner have a poor game is daft. They are totally different types of players playing totally different roles

It's not a zero sum game.

For whatever reason , Rayner had a very quiet game but surely that is a separate issue

If one of our mids has a quiet game, do we attribute one of the other mids playing as the reason why?

Of course not.

If Daniher kicks 5 goals and Charlie fails to trouble the scorers, is Joe "holding back" Charlie?I think you are being a bit funny trying to

No it's not.

There is absolutely no reason why Gunston and Rayner can't both play well at the same time in the same team.

They both had good games against WCE last week . Blaming Gunston for Rayner have a poor game is daft. They are totally different types of players playing totally different roles

It's not a zero sum game.

For whatever reason , Rayner had a very quiet game but surely that is a separate issue

If one of our mids has a quiet game, do we attribute one of the other mids playing as the reason why?

Of course not.

If Daniher kicks 5 goals and Charlie fails to trouble the scorers, is Joe "holding back" Charlie?

I am not blaming Gunston, if anything I am blaming the coaching staff for playing him in a role that was already being played well by Rayner. You could argue he was in career best form as a third tall who could also go through the middle. I would also bet he would have been better as the loose defender on the weekend as well which Gunston was terrible at.

Clearly he had his role shifted over the weekend…should he be able to adapt to this? Yes, probably, but do you think we are better off with Gunston in that role? I would argue not. I also don’t get the Daniher/Charlie comparison either but I suspect that was you being facetious.

They both could have played well against Aspley QAFL as well…it’s not really proof of anything though is it. At the end of the day players are responsible for their own form but in my opinion the coaches are getting it wrong here.

 

[KissKiss]

Speaking to someone close to the Dees they've been working really hard on their goalkicking , especially the Petracca type ones from stoppages. They recognised a flaw in their game and they've been practising constantly to address it.

So whilst I thought they were just having a golden day early it is something that they've put a lot of hard yards into.

They also missed a few in the last quarter as well.

Talking with Melbourne friends before the game we had the same conversation about their goal kicking. After a few bad weeks it apparently has been a major focus for them. And it clearly clicked

 

[Nathan Barley]

The teams mentality is all wrong. I heard Zorko on the radio talking about taking time off the clock!! Why not just keep playing football and playing the way that got you in front on the scoreboard. Be ruthless! This team is the most talented list in the comp but continually get out worked when it matters.

It shouldn't be hard to stop the opposition scoring 4 goals in 8 minutes

It's your last sentence that was the issue

 

[martinson]

It shouldn't be hard to stop the opposition scoring 4 goals in 8 minutes

It's your last sentence that was the issue

It didn't seem to dawn on anyone involved that you save games by getting it in to your forward half.

That's what takes the steam out of the opposition . So to continue kicking it to their best player who was having a picnic was never going to do that,

 

[Nathan Barley]

It didn't seem to dawn on anyone involved that you save games by getting it in to your forward half.

That's what takes the steam out of the opposition . So to continue kicking it to their best player who was having a picnic was never going to do that,

If others were working hard enough we may have had other options

Or if our forwards and ruck could position themselves better they could have brought it to ground

 

[martinson]

If others were working hard enough we may have had other options

Or if our forwards and ruck could position themselves better they could have brought it to ground

Absolutely correct.

And it seemed our mindset that we had a big enough lead so just clutter it up a bit in their forward half.

It was actually a shocking 7 or 8 minutes of footy and does raise questions as to how badly we wanted to win.

Maybe harsh to say that but didn't see the desperation or gut running from anyone to say otherwise.

 

[p4p1]

Shutting the game down so early symptom of fatigue? Melbourne may have noticed this at the time and/or expected it to happen.

Fatigue because players making extra runs to make up for lack of defensive run from others?

Players who I see are or suspect are poor defensive runners:

Daniher - not required or expected to be a great defensive runner when not on the ball.

Gunston - has lost the ability to run defensively. May be an upgrade on McStay in some respects but a downgrade athletically and arguably in contested marking. McStay was IMO a better defender last year when sent back than Gunston is at this stage of his career. McStay’s workrate probably underrated. I felt that McStay probably could have played a mid/wing role if we required it and he worked on it during the preseason. Not a mistake to let him go for the money he was being offered though.


Lyons if we/he don’t win the clearance he generally becomes a liability. He can be quite slow on the spread defensively.

Rayner, doesn’t have the want or maybe the gas tank to do so. Can get sucked in hunting the ball. Has probably had his best year to date and keeps threatening to break a game open. He looked more settled in a hybrid 3rd tall role which also allowed us an extra runner to cover for his defensive short comings.

Oscar/Fort neither are great athletes. Don’t expect your ruckmen to be a great defensive runner either way. You need a ruckman, realistically each ruckmans is going to cancel each other out when talking about defensive run. Ruckman, as Gawn showed over the weekend can be a huge asset in defensive setup though. Oscar has shown the ability to do so but was massively outplayed. I expect Gawn may have pushed O to the point of exhaustion. I don’t believe bringing in two ruckman is the answer though, I don’t see the point in trying to h2h with Melbourne in a ruck battle by bringing 2 x ruckman who are both worse than either Melbourne ruck. We are better off trying to take advantage of the weaknesses their two-ruck setup will have. Harris to play on resting ruck.

Teams can only afford to carry a few guys who can’t or won’t run defensively, the first/easiest player to give a pass to is Joe. You cop poor defensive run from your #1 key forward and it is almost an expectation that they will not give you great defensive run. Joe is probably no weaker than any other key forward in this aspect and does run defensively at times. The way I see it, if x is the number of poor defensive runners you can realistically cover for a full game, then you cannot go over x in the modern game regardless of what other players may bring to the table offensively. What x actually is, is up for debate, I think it is 3 at most(not including #1 ruck). Lets say for arguments sake say those 3 players when we have played our best with the 2 forward set up are Rayner, Neale and Daniher. Which isn’t that out of the ordinary 2 x forwards, 1 x #1 mid. You don’t expect your #1 KPF and #1 mid to be great defensively all game. With Rayner you hope offensively what he brings outweighs what he doesn’t bring defensively but can cover his endurance, rather than a lack of intent over a game.

With Rayner, Gunston, Lyons, Zorko, Daniher and Neale all playing on the weekend, our run in general suffered but particuarly on defence. Your remaining 16 players probably need to run an extra 15-20% more/harder. With 10 mins left in the game, or 12.5% of game time left when they started to run over us/we failed to shut the game down and looked more fatigued than they did. I'm not giving Rayner a pass, but it is my belief that he offers more than Gunston both defensively and offensively which is why I would drop Gunston ahead of him. Rayner still needs to work on his tank though, without it he will never be the player he has the raw talent to be.

Important aspect of team balance is now a teams ability to cover ground defensively. This is why IMO 2 dedicated ruckmen has gone out of favour and potentially why the Demons looked better in spurts, particularly late against us than they have all year. More runners.

Disappointing thing (although still a big silver lining in a way) is it looked to me like the young guys + Daniher were the ones who really drove our comeback/dominance and the leaders in the team (outside of Clugg) did not step up, especially when it mattered most towards the end. The first crack does show that Gunston, mentally still has great awareness and game sense and looked like he was making the right calls but others weren't listening or couldn't hear him. But athletically the game has gone past him unless something changes quickly for him. Either way, we have a lot of experienced players now, we shouldn't need another premiership hawk to act as a kind of on field coach, our players are mature enough that they shouldn't need it anymore.

 

[Gadzorks]

We are clearly angst ridden re 'that' game, but it's kind of a waste of energy.

Inside the club it will be, as usual, will be business as usual.

Review, concentrate on us and back the selected team.

I want changes, but do not expect them.

 

[Gadzorks]

Short, dumb, story. Many seasons ago - I think 2014 - my son was the onfield mascot for Lions at the Gabba v the Blues. He was 7.

He was briefed before the game to run through the banner with the team, do a half circle (like 50m) and run back through the goals to mum and dad. Instead, he ran through the banner and stayed with the team for most of a lap. When the team came back to gather in the goal square the players all took a knee and Browny addressed them. My wife asked 'where is he?' (the boy) and the answer was, in the huddle, on one knee.

He thought once he ran on, he was in the team.

The huddle ended and the players spread out to practise goal kicking. My son followed Rockliff to the 50m. Rocky looked non-plussed but told him to 'man the mark', so he did. In the end Nicole (Lions staff) had to run on and 'drag the boy' who reluctantly followed her off.

To the point: My son was buzzing but giggling and wide-eyed. Something had obviously grabbed his attention. I asked what happened in the huddle; he said 'Dad, Browny Yelled. Browny Shouted. Browny Sweared A LOT'.

Only recently did I ask if he recalled more specifics and he said that now some years later he can only remember Browny and the swearing, and that there were more swear words than other non-swear words.

If swearing is the criteria for motivation speech, I'm qualified and available.

 

[p4p1]

If swearing is the criteria for motivation speech, I'm qualified and available.

We could be a two man team.
I have learnt though, that these kind of motivational speeches only work on the sports field. Off of them they get you sent to HR.

 

[Section 5]

Below from SEN article

The Key Takeaway: Couldn’t overcome MCG hoodoo

While Brisbane won at the MCG in a semi-final last season, the big talking point ahead of their clash against Melbourne still surrounded their recent record at the venue.

Following their one-point loss, the Lions are now 1-14 in their last 15 trips to the venue including three defeats this season.

They may look at this game as one where they performed reasonably well, but that last 10 minutes shows they have some serious nightmares about playing at the MCG.

Even though they’re almost impenetrable at home, the Lions know that they need to be better at the colosseum if they’re to win it all on Grand Final day.

They don’t return to the venue in the home and away season either … so if they make it to the last Saturday of September, there’s every chance the hoodoo is still hanging over their heads.

The Positive: Forward line fires

Up against the league’s second-best defence in Melbourne, Brisbane did well to notch 104 points.

While they couldn’t get them over the line late, their work was done inside 50 as they just needed their defenders to hold on to claim victory.

Even though they weren’t able to do that, the Lions will still be happy with their return of 16.8 with Jack Gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

32

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

, Joe Daniher, Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

24

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

, Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

29

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

and Lincoln McCarthy

11

Lincoln Mccarthy

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.9

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.1

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.3

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.0

1star

all kicking multiple majors.

It’s the equal-biggest score Melbourne have given up all year, and the first time they’ve allowed an opposition to score more than 90 against them at the MCG.

It’s a little win to take out of a disappointing result.

What they need to tweak for next week: Getting more from gun midfielders

While Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

remained sidelined with injury, Brisbane would have been disappointed to get so little from their midfield.

As well as getting smashed 45-32 in clearances, none of Hugh McCluggage

6

Hugh Mccluggage

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.3

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

19.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

, Jarryd Lyons

17

Jarryd Lyons

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.5

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

8.7

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

4.8

5star

D

21.7

5star

K

14.7

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.1

5star

CL

4.7

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

CL

1.6

4star

, Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

or Will Ashcroft notched more than 22 disposals.

Given Melbourne had the top five disposal getters on the ground, it was an area where Brisbane were dominated in and could be a big reason behind their defeat.

Lachlan Geleit

 

[Sanchez365]

"could be". Lol. Why not just have the guts to say it waa, any idiot watching the game could see we lost it in the Midfield. Somehow Oscar escaped criticism though.

 

[McIvor]

"could be". Lol. Why not just have the guts to say it waa, any idiot watching the game could see we lost it in the Midfield. Somehow Oscar escaped criticism though.

I still can’t believe nothing has been made of Oscar’s soft as pathetically weak effort against Viney late one the game. It’s as if people are trying to ignore or protect Oscar from criticism he should be copping.

 

[martinson]

I still can’t believe nothing has been made of Oscar’s soft as pathetically weak effort against Viney late one the game. It’s as if people are trying to ignore or protect Oscar from criticism he should be copping.

Tbh Oscar is a clumsy player with not much skill who most of the time tries his guts out.

If he could have that moment again obviously he would react differently but he just thought it would be a ball up and was as astounded as everyone else when Viney plucked it out of his grasp and took off.

Yes it looked terrible , crucial stage of the game, I don't think he needs to be told no one wants to see that happen again.

 

[Sanchez365]

There were also some other moments you can pick out, like McKenna missing Ashcroft from a kick out.

I was more making the point that Oscar was part of that starting midfield unit that got smashed.

 

[Tom14]

There were also some other moments you can pick out, like McKenna missing Ashcroft from a kick out.

I was more making the point that Oscar was part of that starting midfield unit that got smashed.

Joe's shot at goal bouncing on the line backwards, Froggy Lester not getting the distance from 35m to at least kick a point. Lots of things have to happen for you to lose by a point.