Preview Round 18, Richmond vs Hawthorn @ MCG - Fri 31 Jul 7:50pm

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Feb 14, 2014
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Richmond vs Hawthorn
Friday 31st July
@Home of Football


It could have been the match of the round, nay the season. Richmond v Hawthorn. The passion, the sweat, the tears. For one group, winning meant more than just the four points, it would have been validation. For the others, a win would have given them the greatest launching pad to making it into the history books as the greatest AFL team of all time. But it was not to be. Wayward kicking meant that the dream died a painful death. The game should have made a promoter giggle with girlish glee. Gil would have been counting dollars. Two of the biggest clubs in the league fighting it out. One for respect, the other for greatness.

For Richmond the question remains, what are we made of? When Mundy, who had visions of the Geelong game, snatched victory it broke the Tigers. Houli felt the weight of the world fall onto his shoulders. Riewoldt threw his arms in the air in an emotional display of frustration and exasperation. The players knew that the dream became just a little harder, just a little further from reach. The flickering light has all but been extinguished.

Or has it?

This isn't the same Richmond that has been seen through the years. This one has the heart and fight of a Tiger. Lead by a new man, a new animal. Trent Cotchin a man who was previously seen as a gentlemen on and off the field has turned. He has a fight and aggression. The rest of streak are responding. Jack Riewoldt, a man who has spent more time displaying undue emotion has become a professional. Shane "Titch" Edwards, a small no one a few years ago, now? He is a vital cog to the side. But it also the lesser lights who are beginning to snarl and bare their teeth. Shaun Hampson a man who was written off as being not physical enough, not quick enough and not clean enough. He is no mere timid tiger. In the last few rounds we have seen him attack the games with a level of ferociousness and vigor that those who were writing him off are now writing his praises. This Friday night at the Colosseum of football, we get another chance to relight the candle, another chance to attone.

The opponent? The all conquering, ultra-professional Hawks.

The previous six weeks have been kind to them. Favour fortunes the brave and there has been few braver clubs. At the bye questions were asked. Could they do it again? Did they have the heart or desire? Within six weeks they went from a club that looked to be in a fight for a top four position to an unstoppable juggernaut dismantling and embarrassing all those in their way. Last week, hot off the back of methodical murder of the Swans, Hawthorn decided to massacre a weak and feeble Carlton. It was merciless and brutal. But as a professional kettle of Hawks they did what needed to be done. The wiped the mess away and buried the body and began to look for their next major victim to hang on the mantle.

This Friday they may have found it.

The Tigers are out looking for redemption, to attone for the sins of the past and to keep, what felt impossible, alive. The Hawks are looking for another kill to intimidate all onlookers. One club looking to solidify a position in the Top Four, another fighting to get there. I don't know about you, but I am salivating at the thought of this one.


The Match

This is a hard game to predict. The Tigers through Damien Hardwick have sought to emulate the Hawthorn game style with a few key tweaks. I think a main area that is going to determine the game is going to be the headspace of the players. Over the last few weeks Hawthorn has been professionally dismantling their opponent and making them look second rate. Richmond on the other hand has been just doing enough to win, and last week we saw how that didn't work out. But to look at the players after that game. All I can do is hope that they have the maturity to recover and fight back. A win here and Top Four is not a pipe dream.

The Forwards
Richmond's forward line had been working. It is generating shots on goal, however not converting them. We have seen it throughout this season. When we miss shots we will lose with a terrible scoreline. Hopefully this week they have practised hard on accuracy. The Griffiths/Vickery/Hampson issue will be an interesting one to work out and one that I will talk about later.

Hawthorn on the other hand has been flying. Jack Gunston has had a great few weeks and is really starting to blossom. Even though he is down on weight and just got half his face cut out Jarryd Roughhead isn't hanging around to ease back into the game. Rioli? he is finally starting to show that he is able to impact games longer and not just be a "highlights" player.

Over the last few weeks I would have to give the edge to Hawthorn, who since the bye have not kicked less than 15 goals.

Mids
This is where the Tigers have really improved for mine. The midfield group has begun to gel together and is starting to look formidable. Ellis is starting to get back into his 2014 form with his great run and carry. Martin is getting more impactful touches, Griggs in great form, and Cotchin. He has turned me around. I wanted to see fight and I am beginning to see it. It is what I always wanted to see.

Hawthorn however are close to brilliant in terms of roundness. They have tough extractors and great run and dash. Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell are to be envied as is the dash and clean disposal of Smith and Breust. There is really not much I can say about their midfield that has yet to be said. Just awesome

Although I have given a ringing endorsement to the Hawks, I do this feel this one is close. Our midfield group is just behind Hawthorns. But not by much.

Backs
This is where Richmond has clawed a lot of respect from the competition. Our back six, a group that was once the laughing stock of the AFL are now one of the most cohesive. Rance...what can I say? In sentence that would make McAvaney blush, Rance "is a handsome man who makes a lot of handsome plays". Batchelor and Grimes, two players seemingly playing for their careers have never looked so settled down back. Houli and Chaplin may have their doubters but I have always loved their contribution to structures, and in Houli's case his attacking run.

Hawthorn on the other hand created a game on a great solid defence and unsociable football. Gibson is one that comes to mind. Like Rance he likes to work off his opponents. One thing i would say that he would have over Rance is that I think Gibson's in air work is better. He looks a little better when jumping for a pack mark. Add to that the recruits of Frawley and Lake and their defence looks like it is able to take on anyone.

For this one I have to give it to the Tigers. The defense has only really looked bad when it has been let down by the midfield.

Possible Line Ups
HAWTHORN

B James Frawley, Brian Lake, Sam Mitchell
HB Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Ben Stratton
C Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Isaac Smith
HF Cyril Rioli, David Hale, Ryan Schoenmakers
F Jack Gunston, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust
FOL Ben McEvoy, Paul Puopolo, Jordan Lewis
I/C Matthew Suckling, Liam Shiels, Bradley Hill

RICHMOND
B Dylan Grimes, Jake Batchelor, Troy Chaplin
HB Nick Vlastuin, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
C Brandon Ellis, Brett Deledio, Kamdyn McIntosh
HF Ben Lennon, Tyrone Vickery, Dustin Martin
F Ben Griffiths, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin
FOL Ivan Maric, Shaun Grigg, Kane Lambert
I/C Chris Newman, Anthony Miles, Taylor Hunt, Steven Morris

What I would like to see*

RICHMOND
B Dylan Grimes, Jake Batchelor, Troy Chaplin
HB Nick Vlastuin, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
C Brandon Ellis, Brett Deledio, Ben Griffiths
HF Ben Lennon, Shaun Hampson, Dustin Martin
F Tyrone Vickery, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin
FOL Ivan Maric, Shaun Grigg, Kane Lambert
I/C Kamdyn McIntosh, Anthony Miles, Taylor Hunt, Steven Morris

This here is what I would purely like to see. My reasoning is that Steven Morris blankets Rioli. Apart from 2014 when the entire team wasn't playing well Rioli hasn't really impacted the game and I don't think Vlastuin, Houli or Hunt could keep him out of the game like Morris can. We don't need touches from Morris we just don't need Rioli to get them. Furthermore I think Griffiths could do a Richo and play a good game on the wing. He has the height and athleticism to run the game out and also allows a three tall forward line without sacrificing a ruckman. What I also like is that he would have the ability to run down back and stand in front of their firing forward line. We need him to drop back and stand in front of Rough or Gunston. Not going to happen but just something I hope to happen.

Main Match ups

FRAWLEY%20James.png
V
RIEWOLDT%20Jack.png


Frawley has always had the upper hand on Jack. I have no idea what it is but Frawley has always been able to limits Jack influence. For us to win this duel Jack needs to take Frawley on a tour of the G'.

ROUGHEAD%20Jarryd.png
V
RANCE%20Alex.png


Look at that beauty on the right. This match up really is Beauty and the Beast, however it could prove pivotal. With Gunston playing well Roughead may decide to take Rance away from the contest to sacrifice his own game to limit Rance's influence. Richmond need to be wise to this and allow him to go back and cover Gunston if needed

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V
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This is the one that could decide the match if Hawthorn is smart. Sydney failed to do it and it cost them. You need to isolate Chaplin one out on a bigger body. Chaplin will either give the free away or he will be out marked. Chaplin can't take the bigger gorilla forwards but with Gunton being so mobile and with Roughead as the real threat that Rance will have to take, Richmond may just have to bite the bullet

LAKE%20Brian.png
V
VICKERY%20Ty.png


On the other hand this could be a match up we would be after. Lake is a great pack mark and his ability to out muscle an opponent is next to none. Coupled with his elite read of the flight he is a great defender. However Vickery is not the big pack mark type. He plays better as a leading to the ball forward. If we can get this match up Vickery may have a decent game with a solid contribution.


What we need to do

We have to play smart football. We need to constrict their run and carry and give ourselves time to have a good defence. We need to play like we did against Fremantle over in Perth. Slow the game down and all marginal kicks need to put close to the boundary line to be punched over allowing for a reset. It also goes without saying that the forwards and midfield need to hit the scoreboard with goals. Inaccuracy against the Hawks will cost us and it will cost us bad. Furthermore Deledio needs to force his running back player to defend him. Personally if Brett plays from the goal square against a Stratton or Birchall, I would consider that a win.

Prediction

This is where I put my balls on the line. Win this game and Hawthorn would need nothing short of a terror attack to miss out on Top Four. The Tigers on the other hand are hurting from a bad loss, one that was taken from them. To see the players hurt the way they did makes me feel that they will come out snarling and full of vigor. They should also take comfort in the knowledge that apart from last year (during our god aweful form) we have been competitive against the Hawks and have lined up well against them. This is all going to boil down to who wants it more. To be honest I hope it is us, but nonetheless I will be watching

Richmond by 39 points
 
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RICHMOND INJURY LIST - 27/07/2015
Player Injury Estimated Return
Nathan Drummond Knee Season
Jayden Short Ankle Season
Nathan Foley Knee Indefinite
Ricky Petterd Foot Indefinite
Shane Edwards Leg 1-2 weeks
Shaun Hampson Ankle Test
Chris Knights Quad Test
Matt Thomas Back Test
 
RICHMOND INJURY LIST - 27/07/2015
Player Injury Estimated Return
Nathan Drummond Knee Season
Jayden Short Ankle Season
Nathan Foley Knee Indefinite
Ricky Petterd Foot Indefinite
Shane Edwards Leg 1-2 weeks
Shaun Hampson Ankle Test
Chris Knights Quad Test
Matt Thomas Back Test
Knights again
 

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Need to win this now. If we want to have a shot at the flag we simply have to want it more and bring the funk. Fire up Tiges! What I want to see is a steely resolve not to be pushed around and no wasting of our chances. Pressure them like they have not been pressured. Lets do this!
 
RICHMOND INJURY LIST - 27/07/2015
Player Injury Estimated Return
Nathan Drummond Knee Season
Jayden Short Ankle Season
Nathan Foley Knee Indefinite
Ricky Petterd Foot Indefinite
Shane Edwards Leg 1-2 weeks
Shaun Hampson Ankle Test
Chris Knights Quad Test
Matt Thomas Back Test
Titch still a couple away :(
 
Before the Freo game I put $50 on us to win by 1-39 points. After the Freo game I put another $100 on us to just simply win. We will be out for redemption. Watch Dusty smash out a BOG.
 
Just entered into my prediction calc. Added in the "additional parameters" algorithm jacks dummy spit after the game. Results came back with a Half time margin of 55 goals. Hawks kick the first 10 of the 3rd qtr then go on to lose by 809 goals.

I should point out that this prediction calc is 100% correct so far
 
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