Round 18 - The most pivotal of the season so far

Macpotata

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 22, 2017
9,595
10,877
AFL Club
Geelong
Collingwood vs North Melbourne. A loss here for the Pies who played brilliantly in the first half against the Eagles everywhere but the scoreboard could see them slide down as low as 6th should everything go against them. The Magpies should have been out of sight against WCE at the main break but their goal kicking was horrendous and cost them dearly. North themselves could have iced the match against Sydney but misses by Ziebell and Daw at critical times also dented their chances at claiming the 4 points. North have shown a lot this season but another loss here would certainly dent their finals aspirations while Collingwood as already mentioned have various teams lurking over their shoulder. Sydney look almost certain to defeat Gold Coast in Sydney, but what the Pies do have in their favour is the other bigger clubs are set to battle each other in the run home for finals/top 4 births.

Melbourne travel to Geelong Saturday night knowing another loss could see the Cats plummet out of the 8 while a win for the Dees could see them find their way into the 4. Port who are coming off a loss to Freo host the inform GWS who have been one of the best performing sides over the last month or so. Hawthorn have a date with lowly Carlton and will be looking at this as a percentage booster after an unexpected loss to Brisbane in Tasmania. The lions now find themselves in a rich vein of form and will go back to the GABBA which has been a banana skin venue at times for teams to play at. Adelaide will be looking to keep their season alive in Brisbane and know it won't be an easy task.

The Bombers host Freo who beat the Power which gave up their spot in the 4 to Sydney as a result. A loss by the Bombers here and it's surely season over. Top 2 heavyweights Richmond and West Coast will be licking their lips at the prospects of facing the Saints and Bulldogs but nothing is for sure in sport these days.



Port vs GWS
Cats vs Dees

Other heavyweight clashes. If GWS win this their stocks go up even more and will definitely be one of the most in form sides in the comp if they aren't already., and perhaps one of the most feared running into September. Another loss for the Power will leave them with a little daylight from the rest of the 4.
 

TimothyJ23

Club Legend
Oct 24, 2015
1,144
1,266
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Just ran it through the predictor, IMO:

RIC > STK
COL > NM
SYD > GC
ESS > FRE
ADL > BL
MEL > GEE
HAW > CAR
WCE > WB
PA > GWS

Ladder then reads:

upload_2018-7-18_13-44-4.png
 

WCE Wizard

Premiership Player
Jun 14, 2015
3,647
4,036
AFL Club
West Coast
Just ran it through the predictor, IMO:

RIC > STK
COL > NM
SYD > GC
ESS > FRE
ADL > BL
MEL > GEE
HAW > CAR
WCE > WB
PA > GWS

Ladder then reads:

View attachment 529098
Wow shows how tight each game is the cruical games are North V Pies, Port V GWS and Mel V Geelong. I still reckon that GWS can beat Port, depends if Robbie Gray is fit as well. Only reason the mids of Kelly, Ward, Sheil, Colignio can match if not beat Rockcliff, Powell Pepper, Wines & Boak
 

TimothyJ23

Club Legend
Oct 24, 2015
1,144
1,266
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Wow shows how tight each game is the cruical games are North V Pies, Port V GWS and Mel V Geelong. I still reckon that GWS can beat Port, depends if Robbie Gray is fit as well. Only reason the mids of Kelly, Ward, Sheil, Colignio can match if not beat Rockcliff, Powell Pepper, Wines & Boak
GWS seem to drop a gear on the road - Port at home is a fairly irresistible tip IMO. That's my logic anyway. Huge couple of rounds - COL v RIC in a fortnight will be massive.
 
Jul 19, 2005
14,271
10,466
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Don't know why you would pick Demons over the Cats. Demons have zero wins against top 8 sides and it's at Skilled (where the Cats have a great record).

I also reckon GWS have a decent shot against Port. They seem to be building whereas Port are stumbling. Sure Port could bounce back after last week but they have been really flaky in their application all year.

Magpies V NM is a real 50/50. I honestly feel NM are slightly better in the big games this year and a lot more consistant.
 

WCE Wizard

Premiership Player
Jun 14, 2015
3,647
4,036
AFL Club
West Coast
GWS seem to drop a gear on the road - Port at home is a fairly irresistible tip IMO. That's my logic anyway. Huge couple of rounds - COL v RIC in a fortnight will be massive.
Correct, I mean Port and GWS the margin wont be much so I am still undecided on my tip. The problem I see is Ryder wont play so forces Dixon to go in the ruck and robs their structure, but at the same time GWS dont have Jeremy Cameron and Tom Scully
 

WCE Wizard

Premiership Player
Jun 14, 2015
3,647
4,036
AFL Club
West Coast
Don't know why you would pick Demons over the Cats. Demons have zero wins against top 8 sides and it's at Skilled (where the Cats have a great record).

I also reckon GWS have a decent shot against Port. They seem to be building whereas Port are stumbling. Sure Port could bounce back after last week but they have been really flaky in their application all year.

Magpies V NM is a real 50/50. I honestly feel NM are slightly better in the big games this year and a lot more consistant.

Pies V NM - I will go the Pies i liked what they did against West Coast if they had kicked straight the game would have been done at half time
GWS V Port - I am leaning to GWS, because Ryder wont play and that forces Dixon in the ruck, also depends if Robbie Gray is fit, the man can win a game in one quarter.
 

willydave

All Australian
Oct 25, 2002
901
316
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Melbourne are playing the narrow grounds very well this season. They are only struggling on MCG
This. Exactly right. Our whole game style works better on narrow grounds, strange move from the brains trust in the coaches box given we play upteen games at the 'G, and that is where GFs are won. The easiest way to beat us is the old Hawthorn keepings off and switching the play. Cats played keepings off against us in the second quarter at the 'G in round 1 and scored heavily, we played an unaccountable zone which couldn't cover a basic keepings off style.

I'm not hugely confident missing Viney and Hibberd (big loss) but I still think it will be a dog fight that will go down to the wire, coming down to the 'moment'. The cats are no scalp this year, just an above average team, I think Ablett and Danger are struggling a little, but they do grow a leg at the cattery.

I'd expect that with centre circle dominance we can lock it forward for long periods. IMO, it's ours to win or lose, will come down to our forward line efficiency and ensuring the Cats don't cash in on the counter. I'd imagine they may concede the centre circle and structure up with counter formation, lots of numbers behind the ball.
 

Macpotata

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 22, 2017
9,595
10,877
AFL Club
Geelong
Huge round!

It sure was pivotal and could go along way in shaping the 8. West Coast now are set for top 4 with big losses to Sydney, Port and Melbourne:D

The Crows survived narrowly. The Hawkers put a beat down on Carlton and the Dons stayed in the hunt for September action.

What could have been for Melbourne........

8 point swing for us. Very, very fortunate but at the same time we made our own luck.

Luck of the Irish they say:moustache:
 
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