Prediction Round 19, 2025: Changes vs Richmond

[ghostbat12]

Imagine writing short posts criticising long posts because you have NFI

His issues are effectiveness rather than inability to write well.

 

[PremiershipNo4]

His issues are effectiveness rather than inability to write well.

Aren’t there tablets you can get for that………..my bad I think that’s for something else.

 

[WCErevival]

Can we get a 1000 word cap on posts please

 

[javaguice]

All you haters will eat humble pie when petrol gets 3 cheap goals

 

[amazingjoshy]

Petch has to be starting sub right?

Looking at the bench def won't be BBW. Dewar, Hall and Hutch were all pretty good last week I thought, would be extremely harsh on any of those

 

[BSD]

You really are a clown, too petty and vindictive to have a semi functional conversation with 90% of the time. Thanks for posting your favourite analytical tool again. Wouldn't want to look too closely at what actually happens out on the ground though would we.

These 12 players under 50 games, you are saying they are not up to the rigours of AFL football because of their age? It's complete nonsense though. Come out of birdseye view of the 23 and look at the individual players.

1. Hall, probably a top 5 player in the side aerobically. Bigger unit than Harley. Voids your argument.
2. Harley Reid, dominating men since his first game, now at the point he's chasing down 30 possession games at plus 80% game time. Will he be fitter in future, yes. Is his fitness right now holding him back from impacting games or is it some sort of a net negative? No. Voids your argument.
3. Jack Hutchinson, 23 years old and according the tracking data across the season only Jack Graham has worked harder. Voids your argument.
4. Tom McCarthy, 24 year VFL player, immediately into the top 3 for sprints and repeats and plays like a 200 game player. Voids your argument.
5. Jobe Shanahan. 18 year old CHF who in games 2 and 3 is covering the same kind of ground as prime Josh Kennedy. Voids your argument.
6. Noah Long. In the full games he's played, has proven he's in the top 5 fittest players on the ground and has been able to back it up the following week. Voids your argument.
7. Malakai Champion. Hasn't proven whether he can play out a game because he has only been used as a sub. Does not support your argument because his ability to run out a game or not is not a factor in whether the side blows up in the 4th or not, he's either been the freshest player on the field or not out there.
8. Elijah Hewett. He's been in the system as long as Noah Long and Ruben Ginbey who have no fitness issues, possible his foot injuries have stopped him from reaching his potential. Elliott Yeo is in the same position. Could also be that he has a low ceiling endurance wise just due to his athletic profile. Definitely a player who lowers our potential to run out games but these are the tradeoffs you make to have burst players in the centre square, will probably always be the case. I'll give this one to you though.
9. Rhett Bazzo. Played as a KPD so not really sure to what extent this impacted our ability to run out the game. Definitely replacing Sandy Brock with Bazzo robs us of run out of defence. Brock has played less games than Bazzo though so would be counted the same. Nil impact to argument.
10. Jack Williams. The big fella definitely doesn't do the same amount of running as a Jack Waterman or Jobe Shanahan or prime Oscar Allen. As a full forward his game is based on size and strength not speed and running patterns, we for sure cover less distance with him in the side that more mobile options but he was drafted in 2021, 4 preseasons in if he's unable to run out games [no-ones saying that] its on his body type not his age. Nil impact to argument, playing him over Gross was dumb as **** though.
11. Ryan Maric. Same age as Harley and Hall and surprisingly constantly in the top 3 for things like distance covered, sprints, repeat sprints, and top speed. Fit as ****. Voids your argument.
12. Tyrell Dewar. Same boat as Maric, constantly represented in distance, speed, sprint, repeats. Fit as. Voids your argument.

Our problem is not that the 12 players listed above are getting AFL games, or that their bodies can't handle the rigours of AFL football. The problem is that too many of the 11 players above 50 games aren't working as hard as these guys are, and are less talented and having less impact. It's actually the reverse of what people are saying. Where we fall down is that Jamie Cripps doesn't run harder at half forward than Noah Long. Liam Duggan doesn't run harder at half back as Ryan Maric. Tim Kelly doesn't run harder through the midfield than Jack Hutchinson. Tom Cole doesn't run harder than Ruben Ginbey or Bradey Hough. We insist of playing those guys and we have to play them because yes they are more experience and probably fitter than Tom Gross and Luca Greggo or Harvey Johnston, and that is true for now, but outside of Graham and Baker the likes of Cripps, Cole and Duggan are weaker links than most of those listed above.

Malakai started last week that voids your argument.

 

[sharps24]

Malakai started last week that voids your argument.

Did he finish?

 

[jdisc]

Did he finish?

we don't know what his sex life is like

 

[sharps24]

we don't know what his sex life is like

Too young to have a sex life.

 

[KERRPOW]

I may return to this if I can be bothered


First of all it's just dumb to say that there's more to fitness than simply covering more km per game than anyone else or comparing Halls efforts in a match to time trial. Clay Halls 15km game was likely the furthest anyone in this side has run all season, and he backed it up the following week running the second most, and also put his name on the board earlier in the season when he played. You are picking on him if your comment is "yeah but he looked gassed toward the end" Jesus, yeah I'd reckon so he's beating Jack Graham to do that and probably carrying 10kg more weight around.

And yeah they do track other metrics other than distance they do distance at speed, sprints and repeat sprints.

You should go back and take a look at each and every game we have played. It's not a matter of our youngest players occasionally jagging the top distance.

Tabulate the date and this is what it will say: Our fittest senior players are Graham [usually the winner and that correlates perfectly well to the received wisdom over pre-season that he's our fittest player] Hunt, and Baker. Graham is nearly always in the top 3 and Hunt usually features as the sprint king and Baker bobs up depending on the role he plays, with an occasional cameo from Duggan.

Jack Hutchinson and Ryan Maric are the next most consistently represented after Graham and Hunt, those boys [particularly Hutch] have been cracking in week in and week out. But you would classify them as too young for that kind of thing.

Once Sandy Brock made the side he absolutely dominated sprints and repeat sprints taking over from Hunt here. When Hunt went out having Sandy around was a big factor I'd say so likely his running was severely missed in the Port game. Sandy and Hunt are also dueling it out for top speed honours most games but I think Sandy has the offical highest speed.

Noah Long when he has played full games [round 1 and 2] covered a heap of ground, backing up round 1 and 2 with 1st and 2nd. When he's playing his running is huge. Clay Hall in all his games makes the honours list.

Owies and Ryan have features a bit, and Cripps name has snuck in there particularly in the opening games.

The tracker data overall indicates that our top workhorses this season have ben Graham, Hutch, and Hunt. The next rung is Brock, Maric, Baker. Slightly bellow that Hall, Long, Ryan. with occasional cameo's from Hough, Duggan, Ginbey. McCarthy featured straight away as well.

The tracker would be better if they did a top 5 for each side but even just being top 3 you can pretty much see who's working the hardest because its always the same handful of names.

3 of our hardest workers are out of the side at the moment [Brock, Hunt, Long] 2 of which are what you would consider youth. Another 3 of our hardest workers [Hutchinson, Maric, Hall] you count in that too young to fly category as well despite them proving week in and week out that they are doing a power of work and recovering. Graham and Baker are the senior players who round out that mix of 10 or so.

According to the tracker, Cripps on the occasions he's produced elite running, has had his greatest impact, his best 3 games came off the back of getting his name back into the top 3 sprints or repeat sprints.

This adage "having too many young players makes you less able to run out games" just isn't a solid. If you are measuring young by games played then there is poor correlation between age and the ability to run out games because of what Ryan Maric, Sandy Brock, Noah Long and Jack Hutchinson [and now Tom McCarthy] are doing. The players I would consider young, that being first and second year players, are also defying this because Harley and Hall are coping fine, and Hamish Davies is a first year player and could run laps around all of Cripps, Ryan, Owies and Brockman because he' simply a gifted endurance beast. Of the 10 fittest players on the list there are more who have played less than 50 games than more than 50 games.

And despite playing with this youngest side in the league most weeks, we are usually beating our opponent for distance covered and total sprints, so the McWalter brand seems to be about high work rate football and the troops he's asking to do that are doing it. The players going out of the side have included some of the fittest players we have, dropped for skills transgressions not because we needed to get fitter bodies into the side.

Against Port, and against the Pies and Brisbane and others, we spent our tickets early because that gave us the best chance of winning. Having Hunt and Brock out of the side for Cole and Bazzo doesn't really change the list profile much, both are like for like, but it made us much less fit and quick. And sitting Noah Long on the bench for 3 quarters instead of Cripps probably cost us, as did and replacing Graham with a tall. The specifics matter, a lot more than some arbitrary calculation around # players under 50 games or adages about youth.

U gotta shorten your posts man. No ones reading all that.

 

[SAweagle]

Logging onto WC BigFooty board this morning

 

[KERRPOW]

Midfield line ups worry me a bit,

Flynn, Kelly, Hough
Vs
Nankervis, Taranto, Hopper

Our Achilles heel all year, I’m hopeful but certainly not confident in the slightest.
A real shame that Hewett isn’t playing.
I hope the boys get up they’ve been working hard and deserve it.

Our midfield has been our achillies heel the last half decade.

 

[KERRPOW]

All you haters will eat humble pie when petrol gets 3 cheap goals

That would suck cos that means the eagles will be down about 10 goals.

 

[bzparkes]

Imagine writing short posts criticising long posts because you have NFI

Have you bothered to read his posts?

Bloke's an utter numpty.

 

[BSD]

Did he finish?

subbed at 3/4 time

 

[sharps24]

subbed at 3/4 time

Gee that would have been costly. We played 1 short in the 4th I presume?

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Game day so the changes thread is getting locked.

How good is someone saying “I know you don’t think all our 18 year olds count as kids for absurd reasons” then writing 4700 words about how it’s ludicrous to count 18 year olds as kids because because because. Jobe Shanahan one day away from retirement imo.

Happy game day everyone, into the game day thread we go.