Prediction Round 2, 2023: Changes vs GWS

[HoneyBadger35]

how many cracks does SPS get? History says he has one good game then 6 crap ones....Had his one good game last week in a wafl pre-season.

god i hope to be proven wrong

Me too, and you’re right. But his ceiling is higher than any of the other guys in that next tier of Clark/West/Foley etc, so I’m happy to keep kicking the tyres on him until his contract expires and then we go well shoot we tried and move on.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

I hope he comes good, but tbf he was pick 28. Can't be arsed checking but I bet more of those don't make it than do.

From draftguru


Bit of a mixed bag. Probably more hits than misses in the last decade or so. (Mitch Duncan in 2009 particularly hurts given we took Weedon and Stevens earlier in the 20s)

 

[ArdentEagle]

From draftguru

View attachment 1638225
Bit of a mixed bag. Probably more hits than misses in the last decade or so. (Mitch Duncan in 2009 particularly hurts given we took Weedon and Stevens earlier in the 20s)

I still think Parto was hard done by.

 

[Grahame]

I am no fan of XON. He kind of deserves to be dropped for that terrible game he had last weekend. And i personally don't think he will make it. On the other hand one of the things i hope we achieve this year is to be in a position to make a clear definitive call on players like XON, Waterman, Petrucelle, Williams, SPS etc by the end of this year. I would like to see them all play like 10 games or more this season and if they can't improve or show clear evidence of why they are worth continuing to invest in then we can move on from them and feel content that we fully explored the issue and are confident with the call. It would be a bummer if some of them only get 5 games or less and we are sitting here saying "If we gave them a clear run at it with some games strung together to show something, instead of being in and out, could they show something".

Consider Rotham (46 games), Petro (55), Witherden (82), Waterman (73) and SPS (108). A total of 364 games.

The MC favour the 12 players 27 or over (when fit) plus Ryan, Duggan, Cole, Oscar, JJ and BWilliams. That's 18 players. Therefore there's only four spots plus sub (plus injuries) available for the 'rebuild'.

We have 14 others already on the list plus another seven draftees. Of those XON has played 25, Foley 23, West 19, Hough 15 and the Edwards both at 11. The rest, single figures or zero. So ... 21 players with a total of less than 150 games.

I just cannot see there is even the slightest value in putting more games into those first five ... oh just in case they might this week show something they haven't previously.

A proper rebuild means investing - heavily - in the relative unknowns or the unproven.

 

[BrotherDodge]

Bit of a mixed bag. Probably more hits than misses in the last decade or so. (Mitch Duncan in 2009 particularly hurts given we took Weedon and Stevens earlier in the 20s)

Huh, fair enough! I stand corrected, looks like most teams do all right with that pick except for us.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

The MC favour the 12 players 27 or over (when fit) plus Ryan, Duggan, Cole, Oscar, JJ and BWilliams. That's 18 players. Therefore there's only four spots plus sub (plus injuries) available for the 'rebuild'.

It looks a lot worse when you’re not counting games given to Ryan (26), Cole (25), Allen (24) , Jones (23) and Williams (22) as “spots available for the rebuild” because they’re already regulars. They’d be expected to be part of the rebuild.

In addition to those five we had Chesser, Long, Ginbey and Jamieson last week, and Hewett this week.

There’s not a lot else to come in immediately, with Culley and Hough coming back from injury/illness.

 

[Cuzz09]

Ben Cousins was also a forward when he first started. Still remember the day he kicked 5 from the pocket and up until that moment I think I rated Chad Morrison

Chad Morrison

Age

46

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

6.1

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.2

3star

No current season stats available

D

7.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

1.8

2star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.0

3star

as the better player. I was only young back then so don't judge me!

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I thought Schofield was gonna be a way better player than Cuzz. LoL he was
decent



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[Doashuey]

I was big on him early.

I was wrong. Can’t see him lasting the season

Im in the same basket as you Biggie. Call me a fool, Im not yet willing to write him off after one bad game.
Thought he brought some good hardness and 1%ers (sheppards, blocks, smothers) that are sadly lacking in our midfield group last year so willing to give him another chance.
But very disappointed in his showing last weekend, hope he can force his way in and have a real crack at it this season though Im not so confident he will now

 

[Priddis Is Done]

Happy with the changes.

Swing the same axe if the seniors don't perform.

Witherden in the firing line once Hough / Yeo return.

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

Consider Rotham (46 games), Petro (55), Witherden (82), Waterman (73) and SPS (108). A total of 364 games.

The MC favour the 12 players 27 or over (when fit) plus Ryan, Duggan, Cole, Oscar, JJ and BWilliams. That's 18 players. Therefore there's only four spots plus sub (plus injuries) available for the 'rebuild'.

We have 14 others already on the list plus another seven draftees. Of those XON has played 25, Foley 23, West 19, Hough 15 and the Edwards both at 11. The rest, single figures or zero. So ... 21 players with a total of less than 150 games.

I just cannot see there is even the slightest value in putting more games into those first five ... oh just in case they might this week show something they haven't previously.

A proper rebuild means investing - heavily - in the relative unknowns or the unproven.

Would you prefer we keep putting games into the 12 players over 27, many of whom are actually over 30? Is that a better return on investment for the full on balls to the wall rebuild you want? And you can't play 18 year old players who have not yet developed the fitness to run out a game at AFL level or the muscle definition to take the hits and compete in the position they are going to be chosen for. Being a bit off the pace due to being green and wet behind the ears is one thing, being unable to run out a game is something else.

You seem to want to drop these players permanently and delist all at once because you are very angry at them for grossly underperforming expectations. Which they have. But we are where we are. There is no point being angry and trying to punish the players in the mid aged age group for being s***. We have to approach it with a totally clear mind, be unemotional, be like an engineer or accountant, and sift through the wreckage of drafting from this period and see if there is anything we can salvage.

One thing to remember is that fringe or role players always look better than what they really are at strong clubs and worse than they really at weak clubs. Lets call it the Sherrod Wellingham effect. Some of those players might be a bit better than what they currently seem just because we get out pants pulled down most weeks, especially in the midfield, and because of the chaos on field at the strategic level because we are betwixted and between game plans at the moment.

 

[ziad]

Would you prefer we keep putting games into the 12 players over 27, many of whom are actually over 30? Is that a better return on investment for the full on balls to the wall rebuild you want? And you can't play 18 year old players who have not yet developed the fitness to run out a game at AFL level or the muscle definition to take the hits and compete in the position they are going to be chosen for. Being a bit off the pace due to being green and wet behind the ears is one thing, being unable to run out a game is something else.

You seem to want to drop these players permanently and delist all at once because you are very angry at them for grossly underperforming expectations. Which they have. But we are where we are. There is no point being angry and trying to punish the players in the mid aged age group for being s***. We have to approach it with a totally clear mind, be unemotional, be like an engineer or accountant, and sift through the wreckage of drafting from this period and see if there is anything we can salvage.

One thing to remember is that fringe or role players always look better than what they really are at strong clubs and worse than they really at weak clubs. Lets call it the Sherrod Wellingham effect. Some of those players might be a bit better than what they currently seem just because we get out pants pulled down most weeks, especially in the midfield, and because of the chaos on field at the strategic level because we are betwixted and between game plans at the moment.

The contrast is that if they were better we wouldnt be getting belted by so much.

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

The contrast is that if they were better we wouldnt be getting belted by so much.

I am not saying they are high quality players. I am saying that we are we are and we have to take the lemon and try and make some lemonade. If this was a normal business we could just sack them, allocate a budget and hire a headhunter and get the quality of personel you want (assuming you budgeted enough). But it isn't a normal business. You can't headhunt personel on a mass scale. You get 4 or 5 draft picks a year that you can trade or use to bring new personel in with.

I don't know what Grahame is suggesting we do? Probably because he deliberately avoids saying what he thinks we should do other than we sack all out mid aged players bar Allen and Ryan. Then what? Play a team that is half 32 year olds who will all be gone in a couple of years and the other half is 18 year olds who can't run out a game? Then 20 games down the road when the 18 year old's haven't performed we can get angry at them aswell and sack them all and begin again?

 

[Bushhopper]

I would be putting Sheed on Gaffs wing. And Gaff would be jogging around in the seconds.

Agreed mate!
Sheeds strength like Gaff is his aerobic capacity and kicking skill as an outside receiver, and kicking distributer.

 

[ziad]

I am not saying they are high quality players. I am saying that we are we are and we have to take the lemon and try and make some lemonade. If this was a normal business we could just sack them, allocate a budget and hire a headhunter and get the quality of personel you want (assuming you budgeted enough). But it isn't a normal business. You can't headhunt personel on a mass scale. You get 4 or 5 draft picks a year that you can trade or use to bring new personel in with.

I don't know what Grahame is suggesting we do? Probably because he deliberately avoids saying what he thinks we should do other than we sack all out mid aged players bar Allen and Ryan. Then what? Play a team that is half 32 year olds who will all be gone in a couple of years and the other half is 18 year olds who can't run out a game? Then 20 games down the road when the 18 year old's haven't performed we can get angry at them aswell and sack them all and begin again?

I just note the contrsting possibility - it is all 100% hypothetical. We could have delisted the leser players over the last 2-3 seasons and traded / drafterd more agressively. But we will never know.

 

[shoutsatclouds]

Ben Cousins was also a forward when he first started. Still remember the day he kicked 5 from the pocket and up until that moment I think I rated Chad Morrison as the better player. I was only young back then so don't judge me!

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Cuz also playing for the OWLS in the pre-game game on Sunday.

 

[Big_Tony]

XON relies too much on the ball coming to his vicinity, doesn't have the elite work rate or knowhow to find more ball. Too often he is trailing 5 meters off where he should be. When the ball is nearby he is ok, even his tackling has improved a lot, but his transitioning and positing is not currently up to it on a consistent basis.

I reckon this is spot on. He seems to have all the tools needed except the footy brain. He's a good tackler, works hard for the team doing the little things, has neat disposal, good pace. Not saying he's elite in any of those areas, but there should be a quality second tier player there. But just doesn't find the ball consistently enough and is often stranded between contests.

A run in the WAFL should do him some good to find touch, and he'll most likely get another opportunity during the year. If he doesn't take his next chance he could be in trouble.

 

[eaglesnutcase]

Geez I hope our mids/forwards coaches are watching tonight’s game. Melbs kicking to their forwards is appalling and reminiscent of WCEs for the last years. Kick short, kick to space, grubber the ball, lower the eyes.
Watching one of the Daicos boys last year break into the forwards line. He did a sideways spinning torpedo caps ball. So random and totally threw the structured defence out.
Dare to be different.JD and OA are good marks and equally good at ground level. By kicking long and high continuously we only aim to use 50% of their ability.
GWS have an AA in defence in Taylor so please please please don’t bomb high balls into attack and play to his strengths.

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

Would you prefer we keep putting games into the 12 players over 27, many of whom are actually over 30? Is that a better return on investment for the full on balls to the wall rebuild you want? And you can't play 18 year old players who have not yet developed the fitness to run out a game at AFL level or the muscle definition to take the hits and compete in the position they are going to be chosen for. Being a bit off the pace due to being green and wet behind the ears is one thing, being unable to run out a game is something else.

You seem to want to drop these players permanently and delist all at once because you are very angry at them for grossly underperforming expectations. Which they have. But we are where we are. There is no point being angry and trying to punish the players in the mid aged age group for being s***. We have to approach it with a totally clear mind, be unemotional, be like an engineer or accountant, and sift through the wreckage of drafting from this period and see if there is anything we can salvage.

One thing to remember is that fringe or role players always look better than what they really are at strong clubs and worse than they really at weak clubs. Lets call it the Sherrod Wellingham effect. Some of those players might be a bit better than what they currently seem just because we get out pants pulled down most weeks, especially in the midfield, and because of the chaos on field at the strategic level because we are betwixted and between game plans at the moment.

Go balls to the wall (when backs to the wall sure hasn’t helped). Keeping senior players (>27 etc) creates a log jam, in my opinion. The kids can’t get games under their belt to become mid-range players, and the mid-range players can’t take the next step. It’s all about opportunities. The cream will always rise to the top, but no club has a large number of absolute guns. Drop on me (from a great height) all you like, but I reckon Hawthorn dances this dance best. Move the senior players on, even if they still have a year or two left. You don’t do rebuilds by half. By contrast, Carlton had Bradley running around when he was 83. Who cares if he still gets a kick: he was the past, not the future. Carlton paid big time for that. If you’re a top 6 contender and the Premiership window is open, and if you have the cattle, play your most experienced blokes by all means (think Geelong). They don’t have to think about nuthin but the present. The flag is so close they can smell the bloody thing. But that’s not us. We are in serious, bone chilling, ball breaking rebuild territory here. Call it whatever you like, but it’s not a minor renovation to the upstairs bathroom. No? So… thin out the over 27s (and yes, it will hurt), give games to to 22 to 27 year olds (to get them to the best they can be) and blood the kids cautiously and methodically, hoping there’s a star among them. Now that the need for a rebuild is obvious, and the process having started, you gotta see it through. Balls to the wall. Now, tell me I’m full of the proverbial…


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[THE A5]

I like xon and would love him to come on but he lacks the speed and explosiveness at the next level to play his natural balanced game. He looks lost when he’s outside and lacks the strength/size to be a force in the coal face. At wafl he looks shuey like tge way he plays but saddly doesn’t look like he will be able to translate that at the next level

 

[Obeanie1]

If X doesn't make it (and unfortunately I've seen almost nothing to suggest he will) it's a bit dire for us. He's another from our relatively recent attempts to draft a decent mid that's failed.

It's in all of our interests to hope he somehow turns it around overnight

What pick was O'Neil again?

 

[Obeanie1]

I like xon and would love him to come on but he lacks the speed and explosiveness at the next level to play his natural balanced game. He looks lost when he’s outside and lacks the strength/size to be a force in the coal face. At wafl he looks shuey like tge way he plays but saddly doesn’t look like he will be able to translate that at the next level

At WAFL level Xon gets to emulate and play the Shuey role.

Its clear when he is elevated to AFL level he isnt playing the same role. He isnt the #1 mid, he has other mids of similar size and ilk being the main mid. Kelly, Sheed and of course Shuey himself.

Only way to really know if Xon has what it takes is to play in a set up with Nic, Yeo, Culley/Ginbey and Xon at the centre bounces and stoppages. The bulls feed the ball out to Xon as the #1 take away inside mid.

Instead we play 2 or 3 small / medium mids who arent very defensive with on and off again ruck supply with senior players out or not fit.

Lets be honest.

Its a bit of a crap shoot trying to show your best as a developing midfielder at the Eagles. ATM.

 

[bzparkes]

Go balls to the wall (when backs to the wall sure hasn’t helped). Keeping senior players (>27 etc) creates a log jam, in my opinion. The kids can’t get games under their belt to become mid-range players, and the mid-range players can’t take the next step. It’s all about opportunities. The cream will always rise to the top, but no club has a large number of absolute guns. Drop on me (from a great height) all you like, but I reckon Hawthorn dances this dance best. Move the senior players on, even if they still have a year or two left. You don’t do rebuilds by half. By contrast, Carlton had Bradley running around when he was 83. Who cares if he still gets a kick: he was the past, not the future. Carlton paid big time for that. If you’re a top 6 contender and the Premiership window is open, and if you have the cattle, play your most experienced blokes by all means (think Geelong). They don’t have to think about nuthin but the present. The flag is so close they can smell the bloody thing. But that’s not us. We are in serious, bone chilling, ball breaking rebuild territory here. Call it whatever you like, but it’s not a minor renovation to the upstairs bathroom. No? So… thin out the over 27s (and yes, it will hurt), give games to to 22 to 27 year olds (to get them to the best they can be) and blood the kids cautiously and methodically, hoping there’s a star among them. Now that the need for a rebuild is obvious, and the process having started, you gotta see it through. Balls to the wall. Now, tell me I’m full of the proverbial…


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Unfortunately we have a few teams going the 'balls to the wall' example, none of them have had any success whatsoever.

See Carlton & Melbourne as the best examples.

Hawthorn now the latest to go down this route.

 

[BeornJ]

What pick was O'Neil again?

Unfortunately there is no way of knowing

 

[RedWeddingGuest]

Unfortunately we have a few teams going the 'balls to the wall' example, none of them have had any success whatsoever.

See Carlton & Melbourne as the best examples.

Hawthorn now the latest to go down this route.

Hawthorn as been doing this (letting senior players move on) for a long time. It’s not a new thing for them. Otherwise, I must have missed how the Blues and the Dees failed miserably doing what I described.

Balls. To. The. Wall. Nuthin ventured. Nuthin gained. If we keep doing the same thing, we’ll get the same result.

Over to you…


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[Mop]

At WAFL level Xon gets to emulate and play the Shuey role.

Its clear when he is elevated to AFL level he isnt playing the same role. He isnt the #1 mid, he has other mids of similar size and ilk being the main mid. Kelly, Sheed and of course Shuey himself.

Only way to really know if Xon has what it takes is to play in a set up with Nic, Yeo, Culley/Ginbey and Xon at the centre bounces and stoppages. The bulls feed the ball out to Xon as the #1 take away inside mid.

Instead we play 2 or 3 small / medium mids who arent very defensive with on and off again ruck supply with senior players out or not fit.

Lets be honest.

Its a bit of a crap shoot trying to show your best as a developing midfielder at the Eagles. ATM.

This is a good, fair and balanced take.

Shuey's likely gone after this year. His soft tissue injuries will retire him a few seasons early one expects.
The time is now to prove his worth in the B's, hone the craft.