Preview Round 2 - Geelong v North, 1:10pm Sunday 2 April @ Etihad

[catempire]

Preview by Lana

Round 2 Preview Geelong v North Melbourne

Admittedly I didn't watch the North v WCE match and I didn't see a single one of there JLT matches. But I watched the highlights video so that has to count for something.

In the Chris Scott era North has been a slight boogie-team for us and we a spirited 5-5 record against them. Last year North was perceived to be the old sick man of the AFL with an average age of there 22 being 27 years and 230 days with a total of 3300 games of experience. Thus over the offseason North has undergone a significant list clean out and seen a significant reduction in age and experience however it would would be wrong to say that there team is young and inexperienced. In the weekend their average age was 25 years 208 days with 2118 games of experience which would both be close to the competition average.

If we move from the number to the names we can see that our prior record against them loses a lot of relevance. With Harvey, Wells and Dal Santo no longer at the club their once formidable outside mid group has been gutted. And with the forced retirement of Petrie and the injury to Waite, North won't be fielding a 3 KPF forward line which was the part of their structure which separated them from the rest of the competition.

North's Form
In round 1 North suffered a 43 point loss to the WCE despite being 9 points up at QT. New Captain Jack Ziebell lead the way with 31 disposals, 8 I50s and a goal and aparently Shawn Higgins is now an inside mid as he gathered 25 disposals (14 CP) and a massive 11 clearances. Waite's radar was amiss as he kicked 1.7 despite his injury he still managed to take 6 marks I50 and showing that he'll be a significant out for North. Of there six new additions to the 22, it is fair to say that they had a minimal impact with Hrovat having the most of the ball with his 14 disposals.

Against WCE, North was unable to turn a hitout domination(51-27) into an significant advantage in the contests(37-36 CL, 137-131 CP 20-16 FF). Having played against Sandilands, our team has undergone a great prep for Goldstien and Pruess (who stands at 206cm making him possibly the tallest second ruck in AFL history.) While WCE dominated the outside game winning the UP count by 81, the kick count by 58 and the mark count by 61. Both teams had little issue taking marks I50 with each side ending the game on 19. North had the lowest K to H ratio (adj for shots on goal) of all teams at 0.8 (our K to H ratio adj was 1)

Our Form
With our disastrous form during the all important JLT competition almost all hope had been lost. However like Ross Lyon we were ambushed by the Cat's performance.

Many hallmarks of our output last year were completely reversed. Our usual dominance of the clearances and I50s were reversed while our conversion of our chances were at a level not seen in a long time exceeding our expected score by 27 points. However it is good to see that our CM marking remains dominant. It is interesting to note that our game against Freemantle had 94 I50s the lowest total of the round (the WCE and North game had a total of 108 I50 which is right on the round average). Given the unique circumstances of the game it is impossible to know our games will result in a similar output in the coming weeks.

While the commentators were desperate to fill the dead air with Dangerwood and Dangerwatch, it was Duncan who broke through the shackles with his return to form coinciding with increased gametime as an inside mid. GHS proved himself to be the real bull at the contest as he repeatedly feed out handballs and knock ons despite being gang tackled. Stanley and Blicavs contested well against Sandliands at the stoppages and were mobile around the ground with each taking 3 contested marks. After a quiet first quarter Menzel came alive in 2nd quarter and broke open the game. Ruggles made Suban his bitch. While Taylor was unable to hit the scoreboard himself he demanded respect from the opponent and showed great second efforts once he brought the ball to ground this also freed up Hawkins to spend more time further up the ground. Our defense did a great job of intercepting Freemantle's attacking forays with Henderson winning 7 intercept possessions (3 of the marks) Mackie and Ruggles had 8 each while Stewart and Lonergan amassed 5.

I could go on about pretty much each players contribution there were very few passengers.

Prediction
We will win by 30 points. We simply have better players on almost every line and the team effort is there. The only advantage the have against us is in the ruck which we now have experience negating.

In Lang
Out Cockatoo

Since Smith hasn't played in almost a month he should get a run in the VFL.

 

[fpm84]

Read somewhere that Guthrie is in doubt.

No changes if he's unavailable; otherwise he comes in for Cowan or Thurlow.

GHS, Murdoch and Ruggles deserve to keep their spots and the Stanley/Blicavs combo worked well enough for Smith to get a run in the VFL.

 

[Willo_]

Assuming everyone pulled up ok I can't really see any changes being made.

Guth being back if he is right to go the obvious one, Thurlow/Parfitt likely out

 

[STPer18]

This is the kind of game we usually lose.

 

[STPer18]

In the presser Scott wasn't 100% confident that Guthrie was going to be right to go for this game, so assuming they take the usual cautious approach I think we should head into this game unchanged.

 

[GeelongFTW]

chris vs brad H2H record?

 

[Bobby_]

Interesting match this one will be.
I thought North Melbourne did much better than what the eventual scoreline indicated on the weekend. Waite and Thomas could not buy a goal (1.9), we have to assume one of them turns the yips around against us.
Cunnington will return from suspension too.

I don't think we need to make any changes.

Possibly Taylor for Black as we add in extra agility but no way is Taylor playing VFL when he's still one of our best defenders. Not sure how Black ever gets a game under this scenario.

 

[Lana]

chris vs brad H2H record?

5-5

 

[4quarter_cat]

Interesting match this one will be.
I thought North Melbourne did much better than what the eventual scoreline indicated on the weekend. Waite and Thomas could not buy a goal (1.9), we have to assume one of them turns the yips around against us.
Cunnington will return from suspension too.

I don't think we need to make any changes.

Possibly Taylor for Black as we add in extra agility but no way is Taylor playing VFL when he's still one of our best defenders. Not sure how Black ever gets a game under this scenario.

I see black as more of a Menzel cover. I think he'll get games, just hopefully not when it matters.

 

[4quarter_cat]

Meat Tray: No changes.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

The team looked much better with a bit less height through the ground.
I would take out Menzel and Thurlow for injury precaution due to the Dockland surface.
But they won't do that only other change for me would be Cowan out for Menegola or Lang.

 

[00VicWard001]

Interesting match this one will be.
I thought North Melbourne did much better than what the eventual scoreline indicated on the weekend. Waite and Thomas could not buy a goal (1.9), we have to assume one of them turns the yips around against us.
Cunnington will return from suspension too.

I don't think we need to make any changes.

Possibly Taylor for Black as we add in extra agility but no way is Taylor playing VFL when he's still one of our best defenders. Not sure how Black ever gets a game under this scenario.

I feel like with Waite that it isn't really about goals, its about involvement. Generally he is not involved in games. So by him being involved in the Rd1 game, even though he missed goals, I reckon he'll go missing for the next 2-3 games.

 

[fpm84]

Some on the North Melbourne board think Waite is in doubt with a shoulder injury. Would be handy as he has caused us trouble in the past.

 

[cynical]

no changes for mine

north are pretty rubbish so should pose no problem

 

[Seeds]

Interesting match this one will be.
I thought North Melbourne did much better than what the eventual scoreline indicated on the weekend. Waite and Thomas could not buy a goal (1.9), we have to assume one of them turns the yips around against us.
Cunnington will return from suspension too.

I don't think we need to make any changes.

Possibly Taylor for Black as we add in extra agility but no way is Taylor playing VFL when he's still one of our best defenders. Not sure how Black ever gets a game under this scenario.

Did you see Taylor play in the backline last night? He was awful. Taylor may just be one of those players whose career finishes a couple of years earlier than others. He may be in the reserves very soon. Especially when kolo comes back.

 

[Bobby_]

Did you see Taylor play in the backline last night? He was awful. Taylor may just be one of those players whose career finishes a couple of years earlier than others. He may be in the reserves very soon. Especially when kolo comes back.

Possibly.
Looks like Taylor's confidence has been drained as he was talked up being our savor in the forward line and he's really not done anything in all four games he's played just yet.

When he was able to push forward last season and the one before that, there was no pressure or expectations. He needs to find his rhythm again.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Happy with no changes. Expect Smith to come back in however.

 

[Seeds]

Possibly.
Looks like Taylor's confidence has been drained as he was talked up being our savor in the forward line and he's really not done anything in all four games he's played just yet.

When he was able to push forward last season and the one before that, there was no pressure or expectations. He needs to find his rhythm again.

Yep hopefully confidence is all it is. But with Stanley doing well in the ruck we really have no other option but him or black to play as second fiddle to Hawkins.

 

[year of the cat]

I think the 2 ruck set up worked well in the west and needs to be kept in place. We did however lose tap after tap so I can certainly see an argument for Smith's inclusion. But, he really needs to be doing far more around the ground than he has of late to justify an ongoing spot in the 22.

If Guthrie comes in I think either Thurlow or Stewart are making way. I'd be keeping Parfitt in for now - he looked comfortable at that level and will only get better with more games.

 

[Seeds]

Gees nth is another other easy one. After looking at our draw we really should win the first eight games if we are serious this year. Ok we may lose one random one but that should be all in the first eight.

 

[B4Bear]

Good luck next week guys, although I do not think you will need it. As someone stated earlier if Waite or Thomas get rid of their yips it might be closer than many predict. Oh and if Dangerfield had a broken leg it would be a help too.

 

[Partridge]

Did you see Taylor play in the backline last night? He was awful. Taylor may just be one of those players whose career finishes a couple of years earlier than others. He may be in the reserves very soon. Especially when kolo comes back.

A mate of mine who doesn't follow Geelong reckons he was finished after the finals. Didn't agree at the time, but I'm starting to feel a little uneasy about him for the remainder of the season. Looked terrible last night.

 

[year of the cat]

A mate of mine who doesn't follow Geelong reckons he was finished after the finals. Didn't agree at the time, but I'm starting to feel a little uneasy about him for the remainder of the season. Looked terrible last night.

I'm worried.

 

[vaughany]

Does anyone know what the promo code is for the Geelong bring a mate for free ticket offer on ticketmaster?

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I'm worried.

I didn't have him in our best side at the start of the year and that opinion hasn't changed after the weekend.