Prediction Round 20, 2025: Changes vs Fremantle

[Cuzz09]

Archer and Shanahan turn into Lloyd/Lucas circa 2000 and kick 11 between them in an honourable loss

 

[THE A5]

Archer and Shanahan turn into Lloyd/Lucas circa 2000 and kick 11 between them in an honourable loss

So Jobe to kick 11 then

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Archer and Shanahan turn into Lloyd/Lucas circa 2000 and kick 11 between them in an honourable loss

Currently on a combined 8 goals from 14 games.

 

[Astro7]

Starting to hate mini more and more. He is just a salesman and nothing else. He speaks well, that's about all.
His selections are dog poo. TK, Owies and Dudgan should never play again. We are going to get flogged anyway, might as well play the kids instead of senior players who put in half efforts.

It's called the fine art of juggling!

 

[ArdentEagle]

Sorry?

You blind or illiterate mate?

 

[Astro7]

Wake up!? Where's the game day thread?

 

[Dark Sharks]

Hehehe you know we've truly hit rock bottom when it's the morning of a Western Derby and nobody cares enough to boot up a preview/gameday thread.

 

[Cuzz09]

Currently on a combined 8 goals from 14 games.

Have they played together?

 

[jdisc]

No gameday thread?

standards are slipping

 

[Cuzz09]

No gameday thread?

standards are slipping

get up? its game day?

 

[dajesmac]

Imagine being Bo Allan getting drafted into the worse side in AFL history and having to sit through a lecture from McMini about Jamie Cripps having to play slightly less games than him in 2011 in a Saints team aspiring for top 4, and despite being taken 10 spots lower on the draft and being diagnosed with type 1 diabetes in the lead up to his first pre season.

Imagine being Elijah Hewett trying to make up for lost time in your 3rd year and being told the same, or why you're going to be dropped for Tim Kelly to return and contribute less in 4 quarters than you would of in a half of football.

Imagine being Luca Greggo and being told that despite a 1 win season he can always debut next year because AFL careers actually go for like a really really long time so whats the rush.

Imagine being Tom Gross and collecting the equal most possessions of any debutant in AFl history, backing it up with the same a week later, and being told "thats enough pig" time to put the cue in the rack.

"All the young kids are getting really impatient and don't understand why they aren't playing more games" Says a clearly perplexed McMini. Yeah maybe because if they had been drafted literally anywhere else they'd of played more games and they just don't understand how they can't break into a team obviously playing near half a dozen list cloggers who wouldn't be playing AFL football at 17 other clubs.

I am more sick of listening to him spin his bullshit than I was at any stage of the Simmo debacle. Despite the mythos around Simmo not being able to develop players, once we drafted someone he was actually pretty generous to them with trusting them at AFL level. McWalters use of the 2025 draft crop is actually a glaring historical lowpoint for the club, which is just an insane thing.

We sacked Simmo to get a coach that could stem the bleeding, McWalter is coaching like a bloke who's been told the new bar for success is no more 100 point losses. There have been no more 100 point losses, but also lowest ever wins and lowest ever use of players taken in the draft. What a trade off.

Edit: Bo if you are listening and Mini hasn't printed this out for you, I'm sure reading this summary of Crippa's disappointing 4 games opening season will help put your mind at ease. The parallels are staggering.

Persistence pays for Cripps

After a trying series of health issues, St Kilda’s Jamie Cripps is finally delivering on his promise.

www.saints.com.au

"He was considered a certainty to be drafted, with experts generally considering him a mid-late first round selection.

But after feeling dehydrated and losing 10kg in a short period of time, Cripps was taken to hospital only to be diagnosed with type 1 diabetes.

News of Cripps' condition emerged days after St Kilda took him with its first selection at the draft and he admitted he didn't know how it would affect him even though he had already witnessed it up close.

After managing four senior games last year, the unusual early hurdles in Cripps' AFL career continued when a nagging calf injury was found to be compartment syndrome, forcing him to miss the last four months of the season.

"The skin around the calf muscles wouldn't let my muscles expand. Whenever I ran, the muscles tightened up so the blood stopped pumping down to my feet and calves," he said.

"I got real bad cramps and pretty much couldn't run after five minutes. That stopped my season pretty early last year."

Sorry is this satire and I’m missing it? There’s a whole stack of bizarre factual errors hahah

 

[Bender_]

No one outside of Freo cares about the game, Harley signing is far more interesting and premiership related.

 

[jdisc]

No one outside of Freo cares about the game, Harley signing is far more interesting and premiership related.

no one claiming they are "quietly optimistic"

are west coast a chance here?

 

[Dark Sharks]

No one outside of Freo cares about the game, Harley signing is far more interesting and premiership related.

If the shoe was on the foot they'd be hooting and hollaring about trying to de-rail our finals campaign, because it' the most important game of the year, akin to a premiership.

Legit just as Serong said on the radio the other day

 

[Rowan18]

I've got my own sport to play at 2pm, will finish around half time at the footy. I'll check the score, and if we're still I'm, I'll watch.

Last week broke me for the season. I kept expecting we'd bring 4 quarters together at some point and grab another win, but to capitulate against 17th tells me the boys have run out of steam. Prioritise development, prepare for list turn over and get ready for a big off season.

 

[twce13]

my Liam is not a dudgan. He may be a liar, a pig, an idiot, a dudgan, but he is not a pawn star!!!

 

[DanWCE]

Sorry is this satire and I’m missing it? There’s a whole stack of bizarre factual errors hahah

It's on you for reading all that in the first place

 

[sharps24]

Sorry is this satire and I’m missing it? There’s a whole stack of bizarre factual errors hahah

Sorry what factual errors? Sure it was written in a slightly hyperbolic manner and I paraphrased Mini's comments on the frustrations of the first year cohort, but I was referring to Mini's derby presser where he mentioned consoling Bo Allan about the lack of games he's played by comparing his experience to Jamie Cripps first season, so far as I know the article I linked is factual. It was a ridiculous comparison to make considering Cripps went into his first preseason fresh out of hospitalisation from diabetes and then did a calf that put him out for 4 months and iresulted in him being sent home to WA before the season was out. Also referenced his previously mentioned telling Luca not to worry if he doesn't get a debut. Gross's first game was equal highest possessions to Chris Judd's first game, he only played 2 full games and unless you want to count a couple of appearances as sub he has been shelved. Yes I retold those Mini insights in a humorous way but nothing is made up there.

And I've looked through the amount of games our draftee's have gotten in their first year in every draft since Naitanui, the combined games between Allan, Gross, Shannahan and Davis is lower than most if not all years in the past 17 years. Harley Reid played as many games in his first year as our entire 2024 cohort combined [ok its like 18 vs 20 or something but Gross, Davis, Allen and Champion all got multiple caps that amounted to barely 10 minutes of actual game, maybe more accurate to say more minutes then]. And none of them have played as many individual games as Naitanui in his first season, Gaff in his, Shepherd in his, Sheed in his, Duggan/ Nelson in theirs, obviously nowhere near Darling, Ginbey, Hewett, Long or Reid, not even as many as Luke Edwards in his first year. You could even compare Archer Reid missing his first year to injury like Vennebles, Waterman, Chesser and not playing [yet] as many games as any of them in his second year.

Now maybe there was an odd year in there where we barely touched the draft and somehow managed to do less than Mini [not sure yet as haven't plugged it into a spreadsheet, maybe 2021 or something has him covered] but to "a pub test standard" over a long period of time Simmo's record of playing draftee's in the firsts, of investing in the talent he has been given to work with, like the coaches that came before him, is barely comparable to McWalters feeble attempts this season. He has simply not prioritised them and that should be obvious. You can debate the reasons why he hasn't and maybe they are even valid, but the fact remains none of them will enjoy the same opportunity's as our recruits in the past have. I've been pointing this out all season and have pointed out that it will be next to impossible for any of this years first rounders to get their 12-18 game either, and that is completely factual based on what next years 22 will look like and the revealed preferences of McWalters 2025 selection history. Its an unfortunate combination of having taken too many picks too quickly that you have to spread the development opportunity among 4 guys instead of 2, and the fact that we are so bad as a side that we don't have the capacity to carry a novice through an AFL game if it comes at the cost of someone with experience. As the club gets even more desperate to perform next season, development conditions can only worsen. Mouth breathing idiots have been arguing with me all season that the games Ginbey and Hough are getting is the same thing as the games Bo Allen isn't getting but I remain defiant, we have departed from historical norms when it comes to the games traditional pumped into our high calibre draftee's and its objectively bad for Tom Gross and Bo Allen to have been starved of the opportunities they have been.

 

[dajesmac]

Sorry what factual errors? Sure it was written in a slightly hyperbolic manner and I paraphrased Mini's comments on the frustrations of the first year cohort, but I was referring to Mini's derby presser where he mentioned consoling Bo Allan about the lack of games he's played by comparing his experience to Jamie Cripps first season, so far as I know the article I linked is factual. It was a ridiculous comparison to make considering Cripps went into his first preseason fresh out of hospitalisation from diabetes and then did a calf that put him out for 4 months and iresulted in him being sent home to WA before the season was out. Also referenced his previously mentioned telling Luca not to worry if he doesn't get a debut. Gross's first game was equal highest possessions to Chris Judd's first game, he only played 2 full games and unless you want to count a couple of appearances as sub he has been shelved. Yes I retold those Mini insights in a humorous way but nothing is made up there.

And I've looked through the amount of games our draftee's have gotten in their first year in every draft since Naitanui, the combined games between Allan, Gross, Shannahan and Davis is lower than most if not all years in the past 17 years. Harley Reid played as many games in his first year as our entire 2024 cohort combined [ok its like 18 vs 20 or something but Gross, Davis, Allen and Champion all got multiple caps that amounted to barely 10 minutes of actual game, maybe more accurate to say more minutes then]. And none of them have played as many individual games as Naitanui in his first season, Gaff in his, Shepherd in his, Sheed in his, Duggan/ Nelson in theirs, obviously nowhere near Darling, Ginbey, Hewett, Long or Reid, not even as many as Luke Edwards in his first year. You could even compare Archer Reid missing his first year to injury like Vennebles, Waterman, Chesser and not playing [yet] as many games as any of them in his second year.

Now maybe there was an odd year in there where we barely touched the draft and somehow managed to do less than Mini [not sure yet as haven't plugged it into a spreadsheet, maybe 2021 or something has him covered] but to "a pub test standard" over a long period of time Simmo's record of playing draftee's in the firsts, of investing in the talent he has been given to work with, like the coaches that came before him, is barely comparable to McWalters feeble attempts this season. He has simply not prioritised them and that should be obvious. You can debate the reasons why he hasn't and maybe they are even valid, but the fact remains none of them will enjoy the same opportunity's as our recruits in the past have. I've been pointing this out all season and have pointed out that it will be next to impossible for any of this years first rounders to get their 12-18 game either, and that is completely factual based on what next years 22 will look like and the revealed preferences of McWalters 2025 selection history. Its an unfortunate combination of having taken too many picks too quickly that you have to spread the development opportunity among 4 guys instead of 2, and the fact that we are so bad as a side that we don't have the capacity to carry a novice through an AFL game if it comes at the cost of someone with experience. As the club gets even more desperate to perform next season, development conditions can only worsen. Mouth breathing idiots have been arguing with me all season that the games Ginbey and Hough are getting is the same thing as the games Bo Allen isn't getting but I remain defiant, we have departed from historical norms when it comes to the games traditional pumped into our high calibre draftee's and its objectively bad for Tom Gross and Bo Allen to have been starved of the opportunities they have been.

The biggest eyebrow raiser was that Tom Gross broke an AFL debutant disposal record in back to back weeks before being dropped. Unless I've completely misinterpreted that.

Then the suggestion that Elijah Hewett was dropped.

The other point was as you touch on, the least amount of games given to draftees we've ever had. You've clarified you didn't mean it literally. Without checking, our 2015-17 drafts probably didn't have many games during their first years. You've also omitted Sandy Brock presumably.

It's a pretty one dimensional analysis, and the criticism falls apart when you look at how two thirds of our 22 most weeks has played less than 60 games and our average games tally in multiple games recently has been in the 60's. For the record, Richmond and Fremantle (the next lowest in the comp) average roughly 82 each. I'm not sure why there should be so much emphasis placed on first year draftees playing instead of 2nd-4th year players, and why their games should be considered more valuable.