Preview Round 20 - Essendon VS St Kilda - Marvel - Saturday 27/7/24 - 4:35pm AEST

[ant555]

this is a woeful stat. caldwell is a gun kick. champion data are just way off base so often.

I always find these responses funny . Yes there is grey area in stats and they are not everything but Caldwell has rated average for kicking for most of his career . His shot at goal average is in the thirties and he has made this list . Yes he can kick . It is not an physical issue but he is not always a gun kick. Some of that comes with the territory of playing inside midfielder but in three different areas there are stats saying he is not always a gun kick.

 

[ghostdog]

I always find these responses funny . Yes there is grey area in stats and they are not everything but Caldwell has rated average for kicking for most of his career . His shot at goal average is in the thirties and he has made this list . Yes he can kick . It is not an physical issue but he is not always a gun kick. Some of that comes with the territory of playing inside midfielder but in three different areas there are stats saying he is not always a gun kick.

Caldwell's kicking is the least of our concerns. I'll admit I don't really notice when his kicks don't come off but it's probably because he's somewhere in the thick of it there where getting it forward of the congestion is his best option. Compare that with McGrath or Parish who'll shank a 20m option in the clear and this stat is barking up the wrong tree if we're looking for a player to criticise.

The stat is for this year.
Caldwell has played a tough inside gig for us for most of the season.
We've had trouble taking marks for most of the season.
It's disingenuous.

 

[hurlygurdy]

So given the year Heppell has had, why is it a given on this board that he’s cooked? From memory everyone decided he was cooked 3 years ago and then he came back for a solid year last year. Then he was cooked late last year but guess what? Now he is cooked again? You lot want to learn any lessons? Analysis of him is totally suffering from confirmation bias; anything he does well is underplayed and anything he does badly is overblown.

 

[Bombers36]

So given the year Heppell has had, why is it a given on this board that he’s cooked? From memory everyone decided he was cooked 3 years ago and then he came back for a solid year last year. Then he was cooked late last year but guess what? Now he is cooked again? You lot want to learn any lessons? Analysis of him is totally suffering from confirmation bias; anything he does well is underplayed and anything he does badly is overblown.

Yeah I dont mind Heppell and think he can still play a role off the bench and/or as SUB. I'd prefer him over Kelly any day of the week..!! Parish in is great news and I dont think 2MP should have been dropped given his record at Marvel. This weeks changes are OK from where Im sitting...

 

[ant555]

Caldwell's kicking is the least of our concerns. I'll admit I don't really notice when his kicks don't come off but it's probably because he's somewhere in the thick of it there where getting it forward of the congestion is his best option. Compare that with McGrath or Parish who'll shank a 20m option in the clear and this stat is barking up the wrong tree if we're looking for a player to criticise.

The stat is for this year.
Caldwell has played a tough inside gig for us for most of the season.
We've had trouble taking marks for most of the season.
It's disingenuous.

Actually he rates average for effective kicks over all but two seasons and the grey area in the effective kick stat is not that it brings good kicks down but it tends to advantage the poorer kicks who get away with bounce passes or missing targets but the intended target still wins possession.
It is not disingenuous to say that he is not always a gun kick and it is not a knock but he has his issues .

 

[BomberManU]

So given the year Heppell has had, why is it a given on this board that he’s cooked? From memory everyone decided he was cooked 3 years ago and then he came back for a solid year last year. Then he was cooked late last year but guess what? Now he is cooked again? You lot want to learn any lessons? Analysis of him is totally suffering from confirmation bias; anything he does well is underplayed and anything he does badly is overblown.

Genuine questions: But what does he actually 'do well'? Would his spot not be better utilised by getting games into a young player/s?
He's slow, does nothing of note with his disposal and gets exploited by the opposition. He's had some good moments, it hasn't all been bad, but I still think it's a waste of a spot.

 

[Agronomus]

Great to see Parish rushed back to add some desperately needed vanilla to the midfield

 

[Agronomus]

I always find these responses funny . Yes there is grey area in stats and they are not everything but Caldwell has rated average for kicking for most of his career . His shot at goal average is in the thirties and he has made this list . Yes he can kick . It is not an physical issue but he is not always a gun kick. Some of that comes with the territory of playing inside midfielder but in three different areas there are stats saying he is not always a gun kick.

He seems a great set shot for goal and a good enough field kick for the bash and crash he does.

 

[astrowizzle]

He is a gun. Hard as nails. If he screws up a few kicks he's the one in and under getting the bloody ball in the first place. He is absolutely not a problem

 

[ant555]

He seems a great set shot for goal and a good enough field kick for the bash and crash he does.

I am not saying he is bad but he isn’t as good as some are saying. His set shots have been off a few times as well . This year playing midfield more he is not getting as many set shots but last year he had a run of games where he missed a few .

 

[Vindicater]

So given the year Heppell has had, why is it a given on this board that he’s cooked? From memory everyone decided he was cooked 3 years ago and then he came back for a solid year last year. Then he was cooked late last year but guess what? Now he is cooked again? You lot want to learn any lessons? Analysis of him is totally suffering from confirmation bias; anything he does well is underplayed and anything he does badly is overblown.

For me it is an opportunity cost thing.

I believe whatever leadership Heppell offers on field is not worth the cost of giving less playing time to a younger player who will be apart of our next push.

We should be playing Ridley in this role as long term if we want to challenge he will be the general of the backline. He needs practice leading. That in turn opens up a spot for either Hayes to play on big boys or Roberts to come in and usw his kicking as a weapon.

 

[ant555]

He is a gun. Hard as nails. If he screws up a few kicks he's the one in and under getting the bloody ball in the first place. He is absolutely not a problem

Who said it was a problem ?
I was simply pointing out he is not always a gun kick .

 

[faible]

Genuine questions: But what does he actually 'do well'? Would his spot not be better utilised by getting games into a young player/s?
He's slow, does nothing of note with his disposal and gets exploited by the opposition. He's had some good moments, it hasn't all been bad, but I still think it's a waste of a spot.

If we're trying to find positives I'd say:

He's still a very good reader of the play, especially when there's pressure on the ball carrier upfield he then becomes quite a good intercept player. He covers a lot of ground, he might not have leg speed anymore but his endurance is very good and you'll know he'll run out the entire game. He's pretty composed - remember when McKay and Ridley were losing the plot handballing straight to the opposition. I assume he understands the structure and system Scott wants them to play to assist with making sure players are setting up and getting to the spots we want them to be, he might not appear to do it as well as Luke Hodge but perhaps it's more needed than we think.

On the selections, rushing Parish back seems a lot like a last roll of the dice at finals. I can't see how we make it without winning this game and they've brought in 3 experienced heads to try to achieve that. He did the same thing last year with Draper off a 10 week layoff when we were still technically a chance to play finals. I'd say whilst he's not Chris, they both appear to share the philosophy of picking a side to play finals until you can't make finals.

 

[astrowizzle]

Who said it was a problem ?
I was simply pointing out he is not always a gun kick .

Hey dude sorry I have been reading posts over the past few days about his kicking deficiencies. Not a shot at you at all. Just my observation that he is a gun

 

[cAsEy_18]

I'm sorry, I'm sorry - but Heppell might be the first gun to genuinely not have an AFL-level strength that he brings to the table.

As mentioned above, if we're looking for strengths - he can find himself in the right positions as he reads the play well. And his endurance is okay to the point where he can get himself in contests.

It genuinely ends there. He's a liability with the ball in his hands to the point where he has clearly been instructed about 18 months ago to not do anything but sideways/backwards/maybe diagonal 15m kicks. I suppose you could argue that has neutralised a weakness.
But he also can't play on anyone. He's too short to take a key, and too slow to take anyone smaller than a key.

His marking above his head used to be a strength. I would now say it's 'okay'.

But genuinely - it's not "hating on the guy" to say he's run his race. We could, and should, be having a look at Roberts in a similar role.

 

[katana]

I always find these responses funny . Yes there is grey area in stats and they are not everything but Caldwell has rated average for kicking for most of his career . His shot at goal average is in the thirties and he has made this list . Yes he can kick . It is not an physical issue but he is not always a gun kick. Some of that comes with the territory of playing inside midfielder but in three different areas there are stats saying he is not always a gun kick.

i'm fairly certain there was an article rating him one of our best users earlier in the year.

really my point is the metrics they're using are junk.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Bit perplexed with the heppell recall but the leadership from backline veterans like ridley/mcgrath/redman was non existent last week so guessing that's why he is back in

 

[I Remember Bluey]

Team selection sucks

So does a vacuum cleaner, hence the Dyson selection

 

[Shanghaistu]

I can see it now - we’ll win a low-scoring, uninspiring grind by 2 points to keep our ‘finals chances’ alive and give Brad another excuse to select washed-out veterans over youngsters for yet another week

 

[Milanista28]

Was our best in may

 

[joey_jo_jo]

from memory wasnt caldwell splitting his time between high half forward/midfield in the first third of season? guessing this is what Ant is talking about re kicks under pressure.
It does help if CD added some context to their lists, bit different comparing inside mids like Serong/Caldwell to Nic Martin who is rarely kicking from congestion

 

[bombreys]

It’s quite poetic really. These 3 inclusions sum up exactly how this club’s been run for the past 20 years - and in all likelihood will continue to be run for the next 20.

 

[ant555]

i'm fairly certain there was an article rating him one of our best users earlier in the year.

really my point is the metrics they're using are junk.

So junk that that have built a multi million dollar business front m it .
I think you undersell it .
Like I said not the be all and end all but a useful tool .
The average kicking efficiency rating is not really a lie a . As I previously mentioned they grey area is more the bad kicks that get rated as an effective disposal and not good kicks being down graded .

 

[MightyDon]

So given the year Heppell has had, why is it a given on this board that he’s cooked? From memory everyone decided he was cooked 3 years ago and then he came back for a solid year last year. Then he was cooked late last year but guess what? Now he is cooked again? You lot want to learn any lessons? Analysis of him is totally suffering from confirmation bias; anything he does well is underplayed and anything he does badly is overblown.

He had a good year last year? . He played a handful of good games at the start of the year and has completely fallen away, so glad we’ve had the list clogger there for the last 3 years so he could play a handful of good games to start this year.

 

[southern_crusher]

There is absolutely zero speed in this team. Saints will run rings around this lot