Preview Round 22, 2017: Brisbane Lions v Melbourne Demons

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Its that time of year again, when I pick up my typewriter and begin work on what is routinely at this time of year, a preview bereft of hope, with only a thin veil holding back the tears and pain of another wasted year of football. The fact that I'm usually 4 beers and a whiskey (ok 2 whiskeys) in certainly raises the mood, but this one is a little different. Don't get me wrong, a lot of the components are there;

Sitting in last - check
A good chance at grabbing the spoon - check
some godawful gabba spankings where only the german club beers numbed the pain - check
my half assed modding reaching new depths of mediocrity - why change a good thing
the beers and whiskey - definite check

but then things start to get a little weird

players holding off and not re-signing - no
stories of some redheaded coach beating players - ummm
a general wave on unease emanating from the gabba- heck no
the most undefined and shambolic gameplan in vfl/afl history - s**t we even seem to have a plan b!
general optimism from the clubs supporters, even the most ardent naysayers (ruse doesn't count) - WTF?
Richmond in the top 4 - now you're just showing off
Melbourne in the top 8 and finals hunt - go home 2017 you're drunk

Which segways nice and seamlessly into this weeks preview (see what i did there) which sees us come up against a possible finals contender and a team on the rise who's name is somehow called Melbourne. Even Melbourne supporters seem unsure of how this is happening, and any that i've talked to are one step away from crossing the line back to the doldrums all the while shaking their heads with big i told you so's. After being horrible for so long I can understand their sentiment, and the pessimism.

Whats most surprising is that they're actually playing reasonably consistent football with genuine effort. Their backline is very competitive and has some real dashers providing a lot of run and carry in Hunt, Salem and Hibberd, helping them to sit first in intercepts and 4th in Metres gained in the comp. The midfield is a contested footy winning machine, sitting 4th in clearances, 5th in centre clearances and 2nd in contested footy, while their forward line is doing just enough to win them games without being the finishing force you'd hope for.

Meanwhile, after a pretty tough start to the year the lions are humming away since the break with some good wins sitting alongside some near misses and respectable losses for the most part. The backline has improved immensely with a good core group beginning to emerge, led by the incredible Harris Andrews. Honestly its simply beyond belief how much this guy has had to endure in his first 3 years of AFL football, constantly taking the best and biggest KPF most weeks, geez he must be sore after each and every game. Despite a flood of inside 50's (111 more than the next worse) they've managed to improve immensely over the course of the year. The midfield has been solid, although our contested work certainly needs improvement and the forward line has been immense.

Currently we sit dead last on the table for inside 50's and marks inside 50, yet somehow we manage to sit in 11th for goals scored. Thats a pretty impressive conversion rate for a team without an established KPP, or noted small forward.

Overall you can't help note that statistically we are behind the demons in most of the important areas (bar turnovers) which doesn't bode well for a great day out. However on recent form we're certainly a lot closer than those stats would suggest and despite not having beaten the demons since 2013 (Moloney 36, Rocky 34, Brown Leuenberger and Zorko each 3 goals) I can't help but get a little optimistic about this game even if it is in melbourne.

Overall the MCG and whats at stake for the Demons may prove a hurdle too high, but the opportunity to ruin someones finals aspirations is always hard to turn down

Lions by 13
 

lioninthesand

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Feb 22, 2016
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No chance hear. Hungry dees match up well againts us and will have a taste of blood. Feel like they will have a huge first 1/4 - and we will have a mini fight back at some point, but a 50 point loss is coming up - especially as our sights will be set on last round againts the kangas. If it was at eitihad I'd be more confident of a close game.
 
Oct 13, 2001
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No chance hear. Hungry dees match up well againts us and will have a taste of blood. Feel like they will have a huge first 1/4 - and we will have a mini fight back at some point, but a 50 point loss is coming up - especially as our sights will be set on last round againts the kangas. If it was at eitihad I'd be more confident of a close game.

I'm pretty sure the Gabba is more like the MCG (in shape and dimensions) than Ethiad.

It's only a piece of ground with goalposts at each end.

I have a good feeling about this one.

Lions by 21
 
Dream scenario.

5 points down. Rhys Mattheison streaming into the forward 50, blatant duck, taken high for the 15th time in the game, free kick Brisbane.

Matho slots it, runs up to Melbourne cheersquad, double shotgun.

Riots begin. Melbourne out of finals. Fagan named one true god and president of earth, brokers world peace within days.
 
Dream scenario.

5 points down. Rhys Mattheison streaming into the forward 50, blatant duck, taken high for the 15th time in the game, free kick Brisbane.

Matho slots it, runs up to Melbourne cheersquad, double shotgun.

Riots begin. Melbourne out of finals. Fagan named one true god and president of earth, brokers world peace within days.

Many a cheese plate would be spilled.

But Fagan can't be president, we need him coaching.
 
Sep 8, 2004
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However on recent form we're certainly a lot closer than those stats would suggest and despite not having beaten the demons since 2013 (Moloney 36, Rocky 34, Brown Leuenberger and Zorko each 3 goals) I can't help but get a little optimistic about this game even if it is in melbourne.
Nice preview. Would just like to point out we've won two subsequent matches against the Dees since this game (a second time that year in NT, and again at Etihad in 2014), but we have lost our last two against them (both at the MCG).

We're a sneaky chance.
 
Sep 16, 2001
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To have any hope, we need our onballers to win the contested footy stats, and, that would be a miracle. The salient sign of our weakness in this area is that we will get killed again in centre square clearances. This probably lost us the Richmond and Doggies games. In the centre square there is no place to hide.

I would love to know what the coaches are doing about our weekly centre square problems. I would favour trialling other players in there and I will be noting who goes in each time, but it is probably a more complex problem than simply we don't have players that are good in this area.

This centre square clearances is to me, the worst part of our game, and if we fix this, up the ladder we go. Two games left so lets get better.
 
To have any hope, we need our onballers to win the contested footy stats, and, that would be a miracle. The salient sign of our weakness in this area is that we will get killed again in centre square clearances. This probably lost us the Richmond and Doggies games. In the centre square there is no place to hide.

I would love to know what the coaches are doing about our weekly centre square problems. I would favour trialling other players in there and I will be noting who goes in each time, but it is probably a more complex problem than simply we don't have players that are good in this area.

This centre square clearances is to me, the worst part of our game, and if we fix this, up the ladder we go. Two games left so lets get better.
Just put Lester in there, he is Mr fix it.
And the statd will show he does ok in the centre. Matt Priddis like.
 
Nov 11, 2010
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Lester certainly gets a midfield gig in this match for mine.

Dees have: Jones, Oliver, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw and Lewis with Max Gawn feeding it down to them.

We need Beams and Rockliff back to their contested ball winning best here and some others like Lester, Bastinac and Matho to step up too.
 
Despite our improvement in the second half of the season we are clearly a bottom 3 side and Melbourne deserve to sneak into the eight. The MCG is not a place to lose centre square clearances and we surely will. As much as I love Stef's game around the ground, he is not a tap ruckman and Gawn will monster him and give first use to their very strong midfield. Melbourne will win this one by a fair margin.
 

winged1

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 30, 2013
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Lester certainly gets a midfield gig in this match for mine.

Dees have: Jones, Oliver, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw and Lewis with Max Gawn feeding it down to them.

We need Beams and Rockliff back to their contested ball winning best here and some others like Lester, Bastinac and Matho to step up too.
No Berry wont help either, not that an 18 year old should be our big inside ball winner.
 
Even Melbourne supporters seem unsure of how this is happening, and any that i've talked to are one step away from crossing the line back to the doldrums all the while shaking their heads with big i told you so's.

Nailed it
 

Kevvo

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Oct 17, 2013
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We will automatically be a better team if Witherden is named. Just ridiculous how crucial this kid has become to our team in only under 10 games.

I had that exact thought last week.

Rich (who is playing well) stepped up to take a kick in and I thought 'geez I'd feel more confident if Witherden was in'.

That is a strange thing to think about a 7 game player.
 

VanDemonxx

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Jul 24, 2015
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Honestly so iffy about this game. Can actually see us losing. Contested ball is your main strength. Lucky for us it is also ours. Should be able to get on top in the middle and have too much polish in other areas
 
Honestly so iffy about this game. Can actually see us losing. Contested ball is your main strength. Lucky for us it is also ours. Should be able to get on top in the middle and have too much polish in other areas

It really isn't. We are dead last in contested posessions per game. We are actually ok for clearances (8th) and centre clearances (6th) albeit poor in that regard lately. our strength is turning out to be our ball movement and limiting our turnovers as well as our ability to limit or force wide opposition scoring chances (when compared to forward 50 entries).
 

Paul Mac

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Jun 5, 2016
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Lester certainly gets a midfield gig in this match for mine.

Dees have: Jones, Oliver, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw and Lewis with Max Gawn feeding it down to them.

We need Beams and Rockliff back to their contested ball winning best here and some others like Lester, Bastinac and Matho to step up too.
Pretty sure you will find Viney will not be playing this week.
 
Nov 26, 2012
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Lester was instrumental in our centre clearance improvement against the Suns when he as thrown into the mix. Has to play the rest of the season in there even for just 5 minutes a quarter. He is great at getting the ball out of congestion to a running player.
There was one where he absolutely burst out and showed good speed. Was a surprise to that turn of pace
 
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