Review Round 22, 2023 - Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide

[Grasshopper17]

It is strange how perception and narrative work.

A- Magpies win multiple close games and they are lauded for their excellence.

B- Lions win close games, shows they are no chance in finals.

Got me beat.

The key difference is that in the vast majority of close matches Collingwood have won, they have been behind for most of the game, and certainly at three quarter time.

We've generally had a good lead we've almost thrown away.

Clear game management issues, altho our final couple of minutes was excellent in its ugliness. Whether it should have got to that point in the first place is a separate discussion.

 

[Section 5]

The key difference is that in the vast majority of close matches Collingwood have won, they have been behind for most of the game, and certainly at three quarter time.

We've generally had a good lead we've almost thrown away.

Clear game management issues, altho our final couple of minutes was excellent in its ugliness. Whether it should have got to that point in the first place is a separate discussion.

We are a good 3rd quarter team.
We have not been great in the last quarter. Something the team and coaches would like to fix up.

I would much prefer we have a good 3rd quarter and open up a reasonable lead and lose the game.
Rather than have a horrible 3rd quarter and steam home and still lose the game.

However, winning both those examples would be a far better outcome.

 

[Dalions]

We are a good 3rd quarter team.
We have not been great in the last quarter. Something the team and coaches would like to fix up.

I would much prefer we have a good 3rd quarter and open up a reasonable lead and lose the game.
Rather than have a horrible 3rd quarter and steam home and still lose the game.

However, winning both those examples would be a far better outcome.

I would really just like to win a 4th quarter.
Along with the game of course.

 

[twhowler]

Yep been over it ad nauseam, but it was plain to see during the offseason last year he didn't come back in the best of nick. For a guy not blessed with outstanding aerobic ability this makes it even harder to catch up. Whatever he did to get fit during the covid offseason before he did his knee, is what we should be aiming for again. I believe if he can get back into that type of shape, there's no reason why he can't play decent minutes through the midfield.

Yeah that’s the frustration to me - he was earmarked for midfield that year. Hasn’t really been since

From what ML says is that because he hasn’t been as fit since? Maybe also because of dunkley coming?

If cam averages even 17-18 possessions he’d be a star. Absolute beast around the ball. Excellent disposal both feet. Incredibly strong. Doesn’t mind big moments.

Dunno how just need to get him involved because when he is we look better

 

[BuntonRules]

Yeah that’s the frustration to me - he was earmarked for midfield that year. Hasn’t really been since

From what ML says is that because he hasn’t been as fit since? Maybe also because of dunkley coming?

If cam averages even 17-18 possessions he’d be a star. Absolute beast around the ball. Excellent disposal both feet. Incredibly strong. Doesn’t mind big moments.

Dunno how just need to get him involved because when he is we look better

Reckon the next few weeks will be the making of Cam. A position he can own, that suits him.

 

[Section 5]

I would really just like to win a 4th quarter.
Along with the game of course.

Three games when we only kicked 1 goal in the last quarter.
Need to find a way to do better than that in the next month or so.
How the last 5 weeks 4th quarters unfolded after we beat the Tigers and Eagles by 81 points.

Opponent	Lions 4th Quarter Score	4th Quarter Lost or Won By Score	Game Win or Loss
Crows	1-1-7	Lost by 10 (edit)	Win
Dockers	3-3-21	Won by 3	Win
Suns	1-3-9	Lost by 24	Lost
Cats	2-1-13	Lost by 13	Win
Demons	1-1-7	Lost by 22	Lost

 

[twhowler]

Three games when we only kicked 1 goal in the last quarter.
Need to find a way to do better than that in the next month or so.
How the last 5 weeks 4th quarters unfolded after we beat the Tigers and Eagles by 81 points.

Opponent	Lions 4th Quarter Score	4th Quarter Lost or Won By Score	Game Win or Loss
Crows	1-1-7	Lost by 16	Win
Dockers	3-3-21	Won by 3	Win
Suns	1-3-9	Lost by 24	Lost
Cats	2-1-13	Lost by 13	Win
Demons	1-1-7	Lost by 22	Lost

Hmm that crows game is wrong. We lost by 10.

I thought the dockers game was a huge improvement as dockers kicked miraculous goals

Worry v crows was they scored the last 2.4 without us scoring.

 

[Section 5]

Hmm that crows game is wrong. We lost by 10.

I thought the dockers game was a huge improvement as dockers kicked miraculous goals

Worry v crows was they scored the last 2.4 without us scoring.

Thanks fixed.
Yes they also missed one sitter and hit the goal post in another.

 

[twhowler]

Thanks fixed.
Yes they also missed one sitter and hit the goal post in another.

Yeah it was a bit of a blur to me as had the kids causing havoc but we fell over the line. Maybe short break / perth?

 

[Elixuh]

Three games when we only kicked 1 goal in the last quarter.
Need to find a way to do better than that in the next month or so.
How the last 5 weeks 4th quarters unfolded after we beat the Tigers and Eagles by 81 points.

Opponent	Lions 4th Quarter Score	4th Quarter Lost or Won By Score	Game Win or Loss
Crows	1-1-7	Lost by 10 (edit)	Win
Dockers	3-3-21	Won by 3	Win
Suns	1-3-9	Lost by 24	Lost
Cats	2-1-13	Lost by 13	Win
Demons	1-1-7	Lost by 22	Lost

Can you do those games (maybe remove the suns as imo not instructive) across each quarter. Looking at same stats.

 

[Section 5]

Can you do those games (maybe remove the suns as imo not instructive) across each quarter. Looking at same stats.

I have a few things on today so can't fit that request in.
However below is the Q by Q scores minus the Suns game taken from footywire.

Lions average over these 4 games: 1st quarter 2.5 goals, 2nd quarter 3, 3rd quarter 5.5, 4th quarter 1.5

 

[Jimmy Two Hands]

Yeah that’s the frustration to me - he was earmarked for midfield that year. Hasn’t really been since

From what ML says is that because he hasn’t been as fit since? Maybe also because of dunkley coming?

If cam averages even 17-18 possessions he’d be a star. Absolute beast around the ball. Excellent disposal both feet. Incredibly strong. Doesn’t mind big moments.

Dunno how just need to get him involved because when he is we look better

Cam is an interesting one I've been thinking about, and it comes down to an almost philosophical consideration of what success means.

The sudden introduction of both Dunkley and Ashcroft in a single offseason definitely impacted our midfield and team "depth chart" so to speak. Rayner seems to have the potential to be a modern-day inside midfield "bull" and arguably could be a teams premier inside mid and may even have been earmarked to become ours at some point. He isn't currently because a) we have elite inside mids in Neale and Dunkley and b) he has secondary and tertiary skillsets that can be exploited - aerial ability, overheard marking, and goal nous.

So he is currently playing half-forward, which might inhibit his individual ceiling but is arguably the best use of his unique skillset in this current squads make-up.

So post-ACL what we have seen from Rayner is that he is firmly entrenched in the 22, probably in the top half of our players, can win a game off his own boot if the stars align, can play a role and can cover multiple absences or needs on the field (even half back!). On the flipside, there are quiet games, there are questions about his consistency, fitness and ceiling and there's constant comparisons to players taken below him.

If this is ultimately the Rayner we end up with and if thats a "good" return for a pick 1 is in the eye of the beholder - obviously people feel underwhelmed by a #1 pick settling in as a role player within the squad, but ultimately the drafting of Rayner is one of hundreds of list management decisions and countless footy decisions that ultimately lead to a single goal of winning a premiership. If Rayner gets 10 touches and 0 goals playing across half forward in a grand final W, is that enough?

 

[Dalions]

Cam is an interesting one I've been thinking about, and it comes down to an almost philosophical consideration of what success means.

If Rayner gets 10 touches and 0 goals playing across half forward in a grand final W, is that enough?

It’s an interesting question.
Wonder how many number 1 picks have won a Premiership since say 2000 in the more modern era?

 

[Squizz89]

It’s an interesting question.
Wonder how many number 1 picks have won a Premiership since say 2000 in the more modern era?

Off the top of my head only 3 isn't there? Hodge, Boyd & Headland? Pretty small list in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Viceregal]

Off the top of my head only 3 isn't there? Hodge, Boyd & Headland? Pretty small list in the grand scheme of things.

Only two since the listed 2000+ range ...

Before that were:
1998 Des Headland
1992 Drew Banfield

Correction Des was drafted before 2000 but won after 2000 so depends on how you read the question.

Still a low strike rate.

Someone worked it out for over the last 30 years-
Pick 1: 4 players
Pick 2: 8 players
Pick 3: 11 players
Pick 4: 7 players
Pick 5: 6 players
Pick 6: 2 players
Pick 7: 8 players
Pick 8: 5 players
Pick 9: 7 players
Pick 10: 3 players

Looks like pick 3 is the sweet spot (so most likely the Hawks this year )

Hopefully by the end of the year there will be another pick 1 to add to the list ie Cam

 

[Dalions]

Only two since the listed 2000+ range ...

Before that were:
1998 Des Headland
1992 Drew Banfield

Correction Des was drafted before 2000 but won after 2000 so depends on how you read the question.

Still a low strike rate.

Someone worked it out for over the last 30 years-
Pick 1: 4 players
Pick 2: 8 players
Pick 3: 11 players
Pick 4: 7 players
Pick 5: 6 players
Pick 6: 2 players
Pick 7: 8 players
Pick 8: 5 players
Pick 9: 7 players
Pick 10: 3 players

Looks like pick 3 is the sweet spot (so most likely the Hawks this year )

Hopefully by the end of the year there will be another pick 1 to add to the list ie Cam

And another pick 3, Clugga

 

[Dalions]

Only two since the listed 2000+ range ...

Before that were:
1998 Des Headland
1992 Drew Banfield

Correction Des was drafted before 2000 but won after 2000 so depends on how you read the question.

Still a low strike rate.

Someone worked it out for over the last 30 years-
Pick 1: 4 players
Pick 2: 8 players
Pick 3: 11 players
Pick 4: 7 players
Pick 5: 6 players
Pick 6: 2 players
Pick 7: 8 players
Pick 8: 5 players
Pick 9: 7 players
Pick 10: 3 players

Looks like pick 3 is the sweet spot (so most likely the Hawks this year )

Hopefully by the end of the year there will be another pick 1 to add to the list ie Cam

I am only guessing but if you run further down the list I am thinking that there is a chance that between 11-18 there would possibly be more than in the top 10 due to the fact that they are drafted to the better teams for their first couple of years.

 

[M Malice]

Only two since the listed 2000+ range ...

Before that were:
1998 Des Headland
1992 Drew Banfield

Correction Des was drafted before 2000 but won after 2000 so depends on how you read the question.

Still a low strike rate.

Someone worked it out for over the last 30 years-
Pick 1: 4 players
Pick 2: 8 players
Pick 3: 11 players
Pick 4: 7 players
Pick 5: 6 players
Pick 6: 2 players
Pick 7: 8 players
Pick 8: 5 players
Pick 9: 7 players
Pick 10: 3 players

Looks like pick 3 is the sweet spot (so most likely the Hawks this year )

Hopefully by the end of the year there will be another pick 1 to add to the list ie Cam

Also further confirms that pick 1 is not the be all and end all of draft picks, the recruitment/talent spotting team doing their job is more important than holding pick 1. Going back over a few drafts and looking through the picks I have selected who IMO were the best 2-3 players from that draft and the pick they were selected at in brackets.

2013- Marcus Bontempelli(4), Patrick Cripps(13), James Sicily(56)
2014- Christian Petracca(2), Darcy Moore(9), Touk Miller(29), Harris Andrews(61)
2015- Clayton Oliver(4), Charlie Curnow(12)
2016- Hugh McCluggage(3), Shai Bolton(29)
2017- Sam Taylor(28), Charlie Ballard(42)
2018- Connor Rozee(5), Zac Butters(12)
2019- Noah Anderson(2), Caleb Serong(8)
2020- Braeden Campbell(5), Errol Gulden(32)
2021- Nick Daicos(4), Mitchito Owens(33)
2022- Will Ashcroft(2), Harry Sheezel(3).

Bit early to tell on the latter drafts Key Position Player prospects to be fair but no number 1 selections on that list. Albeit it is better to have top 10-12 picks though as they have a higher strike rate, some diamonds can still be found later though.

 

[rye]

Bit early to tell on the latter drafts Key Position Player prospects to be fair but no number 1 selections on that list. Albeit it is better to have top 10-12 picks though as they have a higher strike rate, some diamonds can still be found later though.

generally speaking i think it is much more common to find afl grade defenders, small forwards and ruckmen with your later picks. breust, milne and cameron are all some of the best small forwards this century all coming from the rookie draft for example

the strike rate for afl grade, let alone A grade KPF and midfielders past the first round feels a lot lower to me relative to other positions. you really need to be accessing top end talent or have a godly recruiting team to find star mids and tall forwards with your later picks

i think rayner was the 'upside' pick the club was hoping would overcome his weaknesses and push to become the sort of player that doesnt appear in every draft like a brayshaw type does. unfortunately we have only seen glimpses of that so far

 

[KissKiss]

Honestly feels like we have gone with quite a few speculative picks recently trying to pick guys with high upside or heaps of development to go. I'm not sure that many of them have worked

Dev is probably the only "safe" pick we've made in the last few years.