Preview Round 22 Preview: Brisbane v Geelong

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Requiem

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Round 22 Preview: Brisbane v Geelong

Date: Saturday 17th August

Time: 2:10pm AEST

Location: The Gabba




Last Time on The Orville

On a cold Saturday afternoon, the boys traveled down to Kardinia Park for an expected loss. Although the young cubs were very competitive against the mature bodied Cats for the majority of the first half, it was a 5 goal burst with 10 in game minutes either side of the half time buzzer that decided the result. Hawkins absolutely molested poor Harris – who was fresh off rehab from the infamous Jeremy Cameron incident – to the tune of 7 goals. Additionally, GAJ had arguably his best game of 2018 with 38 disposals, whilst providing plenty of run and carry in the midfield, along with Mitch Duncan delivering lace out deliveries to the forwards.

In the Lions corner, it was former Captain Dayne Beams who was clearly our best contributor, working hard to accumulate his 37 disposals and a solitary goal. All the while Lewis Taylor and Dayne Zorko provided solid midfield support, with 23 touches and 1 goal a piece, Mcstay was the best performed forward with 14 disp & 2 goals, whilst Darcy Gardiner tried to hold down the fort down back. In the end it was a textbook performance by the finals bound Cats, doing what they needed to in order to take home the chocolates, a largely unmemorable game.




A Tale of 2 Halves:

Oh my how time flies.

In the first half of the season, Geelong were the clear undisputed premiership favorites, going at 11 wins & 1 loss, with a percentage of 146. The Cats looks nigh unbeatable, ranking top 2 in both defense and offense. With names like Dangerfield, Duncan & Kelly, dominating the clearances in the midfield, and Stewart, Blicavs & O'connor providing rebound out of defense, their Forward line was allowed to feast. This was buoyed by the inclusion of some new blood debutantes in round 1, which made the ageing cats outfit look rejuvenated and once more primed for a premiership push. However, since the bye the Cats have fallen, their midfield looks slow, the once potent defense has had trouble rebounding, and their forward line stalled hard. Last week they show their best form post bye, but they struggled to dominate for 4 quarters, luckily for them the Kangaroos couldn't kick straight in front of the big stick during the first half.

In contrast, Brisbane were 8 wins & 5 loss, running at a respectable 108%. The Lions looked to have taken the next step naturally from their almost good enough form of 2018, but they still lacked the defensive cohesion as a team to limit opposing teams from getting a run of of 4-6 unanswered goals during periods of the match. The truly frustrating element was our propensity to play at least 10-15 minutes of completely unaccountable, bottom 4 quality football that would prevent us from putting teams away. But even with that flaw, we were able to get the wins ticking over at a finals bound pace.

There are only 2 words I can use to accurately describe the difference between our pre-bye & post-bye form: HOLY s**t!

The biggest difference in play style has been our ability to play long down the wing and have the tall timber contest, and bring the ball to ground for the crumbers to contest, instead of the contents high risk/high reward down the corridor style that typified the first 2 season of Fagan's rule. Furthermore, the young cubs have shown a degree of maturity normally reserved for premiership contenders, recognizing when the opposition has momentum and slow the tempo down, utilizing short kicks to pick apart opposition defenses. Lastly, since round 10, our defense has greatly matured, conceding no more than 80 points in 11 matches played. In this wonderful stretch, we've beaten team positioned all over the ladder, except for the very top, and this week will provide our first true test as to whether premiership hopes are genuine or a mere pipe dream.




Lies, Damned Lies, & Statistics:

725537


The Game:

After watching both Brisbane & Geelong's games last week, this match has me worried. It might just be the restrictive dimensions of Kardinia Park, but the Cats were able to completely choke the North Melbourne attack, to the point where North only scored 3 behinds in the second half. The Cat's ball movement was sloppy early on, but as the match progressed they started hitting short targets regularly with precision. Narkle & Miers provided some much needed dash in the FWD half, Ablett looked back to his pre-bye best setting up scoring chains, and Tim Kelly produced a solid performance in the midfield. But it was Patrick Dangerfield that was clearly BOG, with a damaging 33 disposal, 1 goal effort, he was moving better than he had in weeks. If the Cats can replicate this form, and continue to move the ball quickly before opposition defenses can adjust, we probably will be staring down the barrel of our 2nd home loss of the season.

The Lions on the other hand clinically demolished a battle depleted Gold Coast outfit with a heavy injury list, marching onto victory to the tune of 91 points, the Lion's highest margin of victory for the decade. It was truly a complete team effort, whilst the Suns were able to match our tackling intensity early on, it was the superior ball use of our midfield that let us gain the ascendancy. IMO Lyons was BOG - despite Charlie Cameron winning the Marcus Ashcroft Medal - with 34 disposals, 20 contested, and booting 2 goals. Zorko proved the injury skeptics wrong with an equally commanding effort, whilst Andrews & Adams dominated the intercepting marking, and Witherden played his best game of the season rebounding off the Half back with deadly precision by foot. Last week also happened to be the first game (in what seems like years) that we actually won all 4 quarters, a dominate performance worthy of the surprise packet contender.

One area I will nit pick at though is there were periods in the 1st half of the match were we played like millionaires with our Inside 50 entries, too many wasted opportunities when the margin was well within 3 goals, a top team will not be so forgiving with such sloppy ball use. With the talent Geelong possesses with ball use by foot across the field, they would not hesitate to punish us on the counter-attack, they did it all last week to North. Throughout the season Geelong have had 1 major weakness: they live and die by contested possession, beat them at the coal face and you virtually win the match, unfortunately this will be no easy task. They have no shortage of contested ball beasts, and Narkle looks to have come at just the right time to captilise of some of that service. The one big question mark I have about the Cats is whether or not they will persist with Blicavs in the ruck, this could potentially be disastrous for them, and I would back Big Stef in to get the better of that matchup.

There are so many variable at play here: can the Lions continue their winning ways? Has Geelong truly stabilized their season just in time for finials? Will the Best Offense beat the Best Defense? At the end of the day I feel that the senior leadership in place at Brisbane will hold us in good stead in order to continue this win streak.

Lions by 7 points.

 
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Jpw22511

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I said about 6 weeks ago Geelong have peaked too early in the season again these young "guns" have gotten tired we play our best we will beat them.

Lions by three straight kicks we consolidate top 2.
 

mpal6

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Wouldn’t that be something
It's not even over confidence or arrogance. Geelong are coming to this game with a 9.15(69) and gamestyle rely on limiting opposition from scoring.

Their scoring reads 69(H), 61(A), 107(A), 61(MCG), 84(H), 55(A), 96(H), 56(A), 104(Richmond MCG).. with sydney win being the only high score outlier in the last few weeks.

We have established a multi pronged attack and it'll be hard to stop all of them. We should win well this round.
 
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Nunez

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I still can’t quite bring myself to tip us. Predicting a great effort but a 2 goal loss.
Finding it hard to tip us too, but if I was looking at this without Brisbane bias and years or losing on my mind, I'd think Brisbane should win. Home ground, full team, best scoring team in the comp, fast and hungry. Couple that with two milestone games against a team we haven't beaten in 6 years and I reckon our hunger will get us over the line.
 

Mighty Lions

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Finding it hard to tip us too, but if I was looking at this without Brisbane bias and years or losing on my mind, I'd think Brisbane should win. Home ground, full team, best scoring team in the comp, fast and hungry. Couple that with two milestone games against a team we haven't beaten in 6 years and I reckon our hunger will get us over the line.
For me everything points to a win for us in this game although its probably our biggest and most important test of the season. We have a full list to pick our best 22, are playing a fantastic/exciting style of footy that's producing wins, confidence within the playing group is high & playing at our home ground on a fine day with an expected 26 degree temp.
I don't expect Charlie to get off the chain this weekend as Scotty wont give him the space that Dewey did last week. That being said, our forward line is so good that we have plenty of scoring options should Charlie be shadowed as I suspect he will be.
Flying up tomorrow and cant wait for Saturday to come.
 

Nunez

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For me everything points to a win for us in this game although its probably our biggest and most important test of the season. We have a full list to pick our best 22, are playing a fantastic/exciting style of footy that's producing wins, confidence within the playing group is high & playing at our home ground on a fine day with an expected 26 degree temp.
I don't expect Charlie to get off the chain this weekend as Scotty wont give him the space that Dewey did last week. That being said, our forward line is so good that we have plenty of scoring options should Charlie be shadowed as I suspect he will be.
Flying up tomorrow and cant wait for Saturday to come.
Could it be the day we see Rayner have a break out game? :D
 

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Dlions

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For me everything points to a win for us in this game although its probably our biggest and most important test of the season. We have a full list to pick our best 22, are playing a fantastic/exciting style of footy that's producing wins, confidence within the playing group is high & playing at our home ground on a fine day with an expected 26 degree temp.
I don't expect Charlie to get off the chain this weekend as Scotty wont give him the space that Dewey did last week. That being said, our forward line is so good that we have plenty of scoring options should Charlie be shadowed as I suspect he will be.
Flying up tomorrow and cant wait for Saturday to come.
Charlie was shadowed last week, and the week before that, and the week before that, and so on and so on!
But that is quite obviously not working for most teams!
I am just wondering if they need to play someone 5m behind him at all times and not give him the space to run into, let him lead up at the ball and get him further away from goal.
 

Back2Back2Back

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Geez this is shaping up to be a spectacular game! The stats are super impressive. Very even but a lot of them just pointing to us. I genuinely can't wait!

Charlie was shadowed last week, and the week before that, and the week before that, and so on and so on!
But that is quite obviously not working for most teams!
I am just wondering if they need to play someone 5m behind him at all times and not give him the space to run into, let him lead up at the ball and get him further away from goal.
5m away from Charlie in any direction is a dangerous place to start. The guy can put metres on anyone in the blink of an eye, 5m is as good as being a full football park away - he almost needs a hard tag like May. If he's shadowed from the back I reckon he'll change his tact to crumb from the side or just lead straight out, as he did a few times last week. His set shots are starting to steady nicely.
 

Mighty Lions

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Charlie was shadowed last week, and the week before that, and the week before that, and so on and so on!
But that is quite obviously not working for most teams!
I am just wondering if they need to play someone 5m behind him at all times and not give him the space to run into, let him lead up at the ball and get him further away from goal.
They did that to Hipwood last week for 3 quarters. Just think Geelong and Scott are a bit more professional than our recent opposition and have the ability to tag and keep players quiet when needed. Again (as I mentioned above) that opens the door for our other scoring avenue's.
 

haystark

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God, I hope the boys watched AFL 360 last night, if only to just make them hungrier to beat Geelong. Both Gerard and Robbo and the coaches (Dimma, Scott) said it was hard to get a read on Brisbane as they haven't played too many teams in the top 8. I don't think they were consciously trying to undermine the Lions form, but it didn't sit well with me. The stats say Brisbane is a bloody good team.
 

LongLion

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God, I hope the boys watched AFL 360 last night, if only to just make them hungrier to beat Geelong. Both Gerard and Robbo and the coaches (Dimma, Scott) said it was hard to get a read on Brisbane as they haven't played too many teams in the top 8. I don't think they were consciously trying to undermine the Lions form, but it didn't sit well with me. The stats say Brisbane is a bloody good team.
I'm sure Fagan will set them straight on Wednesday night
 

jackess

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I think it’s fair to say we’ve had an easy draw but as others have posted that doesn’t mean we haven’t played well against top teams. If we at least get close over the next 2 weeks nobody will be underestimating us in the finals.
 

Mighty Lions

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I'm sure Fagan will set them straight on Wednesday night
The team don't acknowledge what is considered "outside noise" at all. 360 & all the other stuff is considered fluff media. The internal noise from the ones that matter is all that is important to them. The other stuff is left up to the marketing guru's and the spin doctors who do a pretty good job.
 

Lions Flag 2020

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I think it’s fair to say we’ve had an easy draw but as others have posted that doesn’t mean we haven’t played well against top teams. If we at least get close over the next 2 weeks nobody will be underestimating us in the finals.
Yep. I'm a glass overflowing supporter but even I must acknowledge that winning 9/10 of our double up games helps with the best of those teams being Port which are clinging onto 8th.
However, I will say that when we have played and beaten some of those lesser sides they were actually playing well and making a run.
 

3KZ is Football

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Finding it hard to tip us too, but if I was looking at this without Brisbane bias and years or losing on my mind, I'd think Brisbane should win. Home ground, full team, best scoring team in the comp, fast and hungry. Couple that with two milestone games against a team we haven't beaten in 6 years and I reckon our hunger will get us over the line.
Brisbane are going to MURDER Geelong. PRESSURE is Geelong’s KRYPTONITE and we are the number one pressure team in the competition. We have the best midfield in the competition when it comes to tackling and intensity and this is where we are going to win it. Our rise this year has been brought about by three factors, our great run with injuries, the fact that almost everyone is in career best form and our midfielders have been amazing.
Just look at our depth - Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McCluggage and Berry form the nucleus of our midfield and those five players have been phenomenal. They are a complete midfield unit, but importantly THEY ALSO KICK GOALS! This has been the X Factor this year and this is why we are going to beat Geelong, Richmond and ultimately win the Premiership. Neale, Lyons, Zorko, McCluggage and Berry have been every bit as potent as Voss, Akermanis, Black, Lappin and Power when it comes to goal kicking this year. Our current midfield is also bolstered by McCarthy, Rayner, Christensen and Robinson, who can rotate through for short stints.

Leaving the midfield to one side, our defence is in extraordinary. Rich is in career best form, as are Gardiner, Witherden and Andrews. Answerth and Bailey are providing run out of defence, Adams is getting better and Hodge is holding things together tactically.

In the forward line Charlie is on fire and Geelong will have no answers for him. Hipwood is as dangerous and mercurial as ever and Christensen is also in career best form. Robinson is deadly when he drifts forward and McCarthy was working into the contest well against Gold Coast and is set for a big one. McStay kicked a couple last week and is due for a “break out” game soon.

Simply put, we will be too good for Geelong. We will steamroll them.
 

Back2Back2Back

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God, I hope the boys watched AFL 360 last night, if only to just make them hungrier to beat Geelong. Both Gerard and Robbo and the coaches (Dimma, Scott) said it was hard to get a read on Brisbane as they haven't played too many teams in the top 8. I don't think they were consciously trying to undermine the Lions form, but it didn't sit well with me. The stats say Brisbane is a bloody good team.
They've been writing us off at every single opportunity so far this season. We weren't supposed to win in Round 1 against last year's premiers, which we did and comfortably. We weren't supposed to win against GWS in Sydney, despite being 4th and GWS being 5th - but we did comfortably. We were then not supposed to beat Port in Adelaide, despite being 3rd and Port 9th - but we did comfortably again. We weren't supposed to beat Hawthorn in Launceston, and yet we did. Comfortably.

It's getting hilarious yet equally pathetic to keep hearing. Every Monday in recent times the printed press is all "Brisbane continue to surprise us" and by Tuesday the talking heads on TV start to talk about all the reasons why we shouldn't win next week. Kane Cornes is convinced our technique of scoring from stoppages won't work in finals footy now too.

Not saying this game is a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination but my God some respect from the wider community of so-called experts is a bit overdue I think.
 

dlanod

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Yep. I'm a glass overflowing supporter but even I must acknowledge that winning 9/10 of our double up games helps with the best of those teams being Port which are clinging onto 8th.
However, I will say that when we have played and beaten some of those lesser sides they were actually playing well and making a run.
Geelong's highest placed double up team was Adelaide, who aren't even in the top 8. ;)
 

fugitive

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It's getting hilarious yet equally pathetic to keep hearing. Every Monday in recent times the printed press is all "Brisbane continue to surprise us" and by Tuesday the talking heads on TV start to talk about all the reasons why we shouldn't win next week. Kane Cornes is convinced our technique of scoring from stoppages won't work in finals footy now too.
Since when Kane Cornes become an expert in anything? Anyhow, it serves us just fine, we continue to prove everyone wrong and Fages probably prefers it that way to keep the boys focused.
 
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