Prediction Round 23: Changes Vs St. Kilda + pre-match discussion

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wayToGo_

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Fyfe's perry passionate at the moment holed up in Vic I would expect...
Yeah I was posting the second part of that Tweet thread but it adds the previous post from the thread along with it.

Brayshaw for Blakely - no surprises. Sounding like other changes possible but unlikely.
 

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Alfonz

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Billings is very comfortably better than Acres.
True, but he is also paid a lot more. I think he is in the top 50 paid players and on 750k or something like that. Can't find that article with the top 100 which came out a month or two ago. He might have to accept a pay cut, but he's not going to want to slash his salary in half. Whoever signs him will be looking at a considerable salary. If Cerra leaves there would be a hole in our salary cap, but I wouldn't be comfortable bringing over a mercenary on more than Brayshaw, Ryan, etc.
 

Joao

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True, but he is also paid a lot more. I think he is in the top 50 paid players and on 750k or something like that. Can't find that article with the top 100 which came out a month or two ago. He might have to accept a pay cut, but he's not going to want to slash his salary in half. Whoever signs him will be looking at a considerable salary. If Cerra leaves there would be a hole in our salary cap, but I wouldn't be comfortable bringing over a mercenary on more than Brayshaw, Ryan, etc.
I think he is unlikely to get 750 but I'd be comfortable at 550. He has a 30+6 game in his history, the dude can play and there is no trade.

I think there is almost no chance of it happening though so I wouldn't worry.
 

Crazy Train

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Acres in. No max king is huge
 

Piggy Smalls

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No Max King for Saints this week
 

Purpletown

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We have been found wanting badly this season when faced with a chance to cement a place within the 8 or generally grab a chance to consolidate. Our prospects are quite slim this weekend as we need so many external factors to go our way but we have some slight hope of at least playing our part by showing up to play.

Rolling over to the Saints would leave a sour taste to end 2021. I hope last weekend's result isn't undone by a non competitive game from us as has happened in similar circumstances this season.
 

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Piggy Smalls

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We have been found wanting badly this season when faced with a chance to cement a place within the 8 or generally grab a chance to consolidate. Our prospects are quite slim this weekend as we need so many external factors to go our way but we have some slight hope of at least playing our part by showing up to play.

Rolling over to the Saints would leave a sour taste to end 2021. I hope last weekend's result isn't undone by a non competitive game from us as has happened in similar circumstances this season.
We can still finish as low as 12th. The importance of this game cannot be understated.
I share your reservations but I’m going to back the boys to come out firing off a seven day break against a weakened side that has been both awful and brilliant at different times this year.
 

GeEkNeRd

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Taking out ladder positions, who is a better team right now. West Coast or St Kilda? Probably the latter IMO. This will likely be a tougher challenge than the Derby. Still tipping Freo to win, but we will need to be switched on early.
 

Paracleet

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Taking out ladder positions, who is a better team right now. West Coast or St Kilda? Probably the latter IMO. This will likely be a tougher challenge than the Derby. Still tipping Freo to win, but we will need to be switched on early.
Definitely the Saints. We are away, still this week the youngest side in the comp against an older side probably with several of their mid tier players playing for their career after an underachieving year. I'm less confident than I was against the Bin Chickens
 

Joao

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Been thru the ladder predictor....we have multiple scenarios to end up in 7th or 8th.....
Unfortunately, all of them require us to win :)
Ergo, WIN THE BLOODY GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not true.

We can make it if we don't win as well. It requires West Coast to lose and Bombers to lose by enough that their % dips below 100.

Then all we have to do is play out a high scoring loss (draw works obvs) with the Saints to get our % above the Bombers. Is it unlikely that we lose to the Saints 5000-4999? Probably but the maths doesn't care.
 

kingswood71

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Not true.

We can make it if we don't win as well. It requires West Coast to lose and Bombers to lose by enough that their % dips below 100.

Then all we have to do is play out a high scoring loss (draw works obvs) with the Saints to get our % above the Bombers. Is it unlikely that we lose to the Saints 5000-4999? Probably but the maths doesn't care.
When I calculate that, Essendon would need to lose by well over 100 points???
 

Joao

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When I calculate that, Essendon would need to lose by well over 100 points???
Yeah seems unlikely but then it doesn't looks so bad against the score the Saint and Freo have to put up. Ran the numbers (roughly). We need Essendon to lose by about 126 points (30-156 works). That gets them to 99.95%

Then all we have to do is lose to the Saints 250,000 to 250,001

It really helps if the Bombers can get done by another couple of goals (30 - 168). Gets our score down to 11,000 to 11,001 which should be a little more gettable.
 

kingswood71

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Yeah seems unlikely but then it doesn't looks so bad against the score the Saint and Freo have to put up. Ran the numbers (roughly). We need Essendon to lose by about 126 points (30-156 works). That gets them to 99.95%

Then all we have to do is lose to the Saints 250,000 to 250,001

It really helps if the Bombers can get done by another couple of goals (30 - 168). Gets our score down to 11,000 to 11,001 which should be a little more gettable.
But where will our 1800 odd goals come from?? Tabs?? :)
 
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