Preview Round 23: Essendon vs Collingwood, MCG, Sunday 22/08/2021 @ 3:20 PM

Winner?


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    49
  • Poll closed .

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eth-dog

Tier 1 WW Player
Jan 11, 2007
102,318
58,937
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Observations

Essendon: Essendon moved into the top 8 with a comprehensive win over Gold Coast down in Geelong, kicking 12 goals to 2 after quarter time in a dominant display. Jake Stringer was dominant with 19 disposals and 5 goals playing both midfield and forward, whilst Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett combined for 65 disposals and 11 clearances.

Collingwood: The Pies had their heaviest loss for the year, going down by 85 points to a dominant Brisbane, only kicking 3 goals to Brisbane's 11 after half time. Jack Crisp was his ever consistent best, collecting 30 disposals along with 7 clearances in the midfield whilst small forwards Josh Thomas and Jack Ginnivan kicked 2 goals apiece.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 2-3 Collingwood


Form Guide

Essendon: 3W 2L
Collingwood: 1W 4L


Possible sides

Essendon vs Collingwood

FB: Tom Cutler - James Stewart - Dyson Heppell
FF: Jck Ginnivan - Will Kelly - Jamie Elliott
HB: Jordan Ridley - Jayden Laverde - Nick Hind
HF: Josh Thomas - Darcy Cameron - Beau McCreery
MF: Nik Cox - Dylan Shiel - Sam Durham
MF: Will Hoskin-Elliott - Jordan De Goey - Josh Daicos
HF: Will Snelling - Aaron Francis - Archie Perkins
HB: Jack Crisp - Jack Madgen - Chris Mayne
FF: Alec Waterman - Peter Wright - Matthew Guelfi
FB: Nathan Murphy - Jordan Roughead - Brayden Maynard
OB: Sam Draper - Zachary Merrett - Darcy Parish
OB: Brodie Grundy - Steele Sidebottom - Taylor Adams
IC: Mason Redman - Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Jake Stringer
IC: Jeremy Howe - Finlay Macrae - Oliver Henry - Trent Bianco
IS: Devon Smith
IS: John Noble

Essendon in: Nik Cox; Out: Martin Gleeson (sub)
Collingwood in: Jeremy Howe, Will Kelly; Out: Brody Mihocek (suspended), Trey Ruscoe (injured)


Collingwood defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon have been the second most efficient forward line in the AFL this season, kicking a goal 24.55% of the time it enters their forward 50. Collingwood have been mid table defensively, conceding a goal 22.87% of the time it enters their defensive 50. The main match up at this wend will be Jordan Roughead going up against Peter Wright, the big key forward kicking 25 goals so far this year and recently becoming the focal point up there with no Cale Hooker or Harrison Jones, whilst Jack Madgen against Aaron Francis could be a fascinating exercise for the pair, Francis probably favouring such a match up compared to a Jeremy Howe.


Midfield/rucks battle

Essendon have steadily improved on the inside of the midfield in the second half of the year, moving from 16th in both contested possession and clearance difference before the bye, and are now 11th and 9th in each respectively, whilst Collingwood are currently 13th and 15th for the pair. On the inside, expect Darcy Parish to continue his dominance on the inside, being second for clearances in the league, on top of averaging 30.7 disposals a game, with more support coming from the likes of the returning Dylan Shiel, Jake Stringer, Zach Merrett and Andrew McGrath. For Collingwood, the main man will be Jordan De Goey, the explosive midfielder/forward having 55 disposals and 14 clearances the last fortnight, with some support from Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom, the Collingwood midfield not as deep as it was a few years ago. Rucks wise, Sam Draper will go against one of his biggest challenges in his short career so far with Brodie Grundy, a good test for the big man.


Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence

Collingwood are 13th in terms of kicking goals per forward entry, kicking a goal 22.06% of the time it goes in there. Essendon have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 23.78% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 16th in the AFL. With leading goal kicker Brodie Mihocek missing this week due to suspension, James Stewart and Jayden Laverde will likely go head to head with Darcy Cameron and youngster Will Kelly this week respectively, the big forward/ruck kicking 21 goals for the year so far in his 17 games, whilst Mason Redman will be hoping to quell the influence of the dangerous Jamie Elliott, who has a habit of kicking goals against Essendon.


X-Factor Player

Trent Bianco is a young draftee with class and poise that could excite Pies fans for a long time coming. He's had a quiet start to his career but he should excite soon enough.


Key stat

Essendon: Centre Clearance Difference. Beat them and give Wright, Francis and Waterman a good chance to beat their opponent one on one.

Collingwood: Goals per inside 50. The Pies need to convert as often as they can when they get inside 50 to give them any chance of winning this.


Tip

It's tough. Collingwood would love nothing more than to knock us out of finals. However, without Mihocek I think Essendon will win by 15
 
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maskmcgee

Premiership Player
Feb 25, 2017
3,642
3,933
The Windy Apple
AFL Club
Essendon
Actually, if Brissy wins, and we lose - we will still make it even if Freo wins. Our % is clutch.
The only way Freo would win next week and not be above us if we lost would be if they lose to West Coast today, which would put West Coast above us. We'd need Freo to lose once and West Coast twice, and considering they're playing eachother that'd be impossible.
 

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BomberTime

Club Legend
Feb 11, 2010
2,570
1,781
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Manchester City San Antonio Spurs
Going to be interesting selection, so many questions.

Do they give Caldwell a run?
Has the break and training block done the trick for Tippa?
Which role players keep their spot? Cutler? Clarke? Guelfi? Waterman?

Which young guns? Perkins? Cox?
 

Call Me Cake

I'll brb
Jun 9, 2007
7,806
4,296
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
If Freo win both and we lose they're on 44 points
The only way Freo would win next week and not be above us if we lost would be if they lose to West Coast today, which would put West Coast above us. We'd need Freo to lose once and West Coast twice, and considering they're playing eachother that'd be impossible.
Fair call, my bad, forgot to click properly
 

Mikevk123

Club Legend
Jun 25, 2019
1,823
1,660
AFL Club
Essendon
In- Cox, Caldwell, Hooker
Out- Heppell(Rest), Waterman, Clarke

B Redman Stewart Hind
HB Ridley Laverde Cutler
C Cox Merrett Durham
HF Stringer Wright Snelling
F Tipungwutti Hooker Smith
FOLL: Draper Shiel Parish
INTER: McGrath, Caldwell, Perkins, Guelfi
Sub: Clarke
 
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