Preview Round 23: Richmond v Brisbane | MCG | Sunday 3.20 (25/8)

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Pies lose Friday night and we’ll finish 4th most likely, certainly not any lower. 2nd and 3rd also possible if we make up percentage but that’s a stretch.
But if we do lose, Brisbane will finish top which means we travel there week 1.
If we do lose we will finish 5th because its likely the pies will win. That will mean a game against essendon at the mcg if the dogs beat Adelaide.
 

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How have they been dropping off defensively though?
- Conceded 60 points against Hawthorn away. If it's about the scoring shots, then West Coast had a similar situation against Hawthorn yet they still ended up losing by only 6 points against us through accuracy.
- Conceded 80 points against Bulldogs (no shame considering how offensive Bulldogs have become)
- Conceded 53 points against Gold Coast
- Conceded 74 points against Geelong (no shame in this either).

I don't think they are travelling that bad defensively. If you're talking about scoring shots per inside 50, then we are not the most accurate or efficient side inside 50 either. Our best chance to have a comfortable win is in two situations:
1. If they get overwhelmed by the game. Playing a big game at home like last week is one thing, but playing a big game away at the MCG is another.
2. If our forward line is accurate and efficient. Hard to stop us at the MCG when that happens.

They have been looking a little vulnerable in recent games though. Geelong, Bulldogs, North Melbourne and even Hawthorn pushed them in various ways. West Coast were pretty much the only team since St Kilda just after the bye that pushed us. Hence, I think we have a little more stamina left before the bye than they do. I think we'll win, but I personally won't make the call that it will be a comfortable win.
Don't look at total score as that can be affected by accuracy/ inaccuracy, need to look at inside 50's differential , scoring shots conceded, possessions per inside 50 conceded and score per inside 50 have all dropped off for the lions in the last 4 games as opposed to the previous 4 games.

round 15-18: inside 50 diff = +19, shots conceded 72, poss per I50 ave conceded = 7.07, score per I50 ave conceded= 2.97
round 19-22: inside 50 diff = +4 , shots conceded 87, poss per I50 ave conceded = 6.60, score per I50 ave conceded = 2.51

They have dropped away defensively in all four areas,
 
I wonder if it might be Kmac for Baker, taking the rotational role for the defensive 6. He's tough, can intercept mark, and has been playing down back in the twos.

His also 18 cms taller, no slower, chases and tackles harder.

Nothing against Baker. It's just that I'm a fully paid-up member of the KMac Cheer Squad. I'd be equally happy to see him come in for Short or Ellis.
 

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Don't look at total score as that can be affected by accuracy/ inaccuracy, need to look at inside 50's differential , scoring shots conceded, possessions per inside 50 conceded and score per inside 50 have all dropped off for the lions in the last 4 games as opposed to the previous 4 games.

round 15-18: inside 50 diff = +19, shots conceded 72, poss per I50 ave conceded = 7.07, score per I50 ave conceded= 2.97
round 19-22: inside 50 diff = +4 , shots conceded 87, poss per I50 ave conceded = 6.60, score per I50 ave conceded = 2.51

They have dropped away defensively in all four areas,
Yeah I noticed that they have been dropping away in the last month or so from their stellar form (except for the Gold Coast game). It does look like they are dropping away defensively based on the stats provided
 
His also 18 cms taller, no slower, chases and tackles harder.

Nothing against Baker. It's just that I'm a fully paid-up member of the KMac Cheer Squad. I'd be equally happy to see him come in for Short or Ellis.
I too am a fully paid member. We're a better side with him playing.

No one has been spudding it up completely, but someone has to make room for KMac. IMO.

Also, my warm fuzzies for the Lions have gone now that I've been on their board. Hope we smash em.
 
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