Review Round 3, 2019 vs Brisbane

[philthy05]

No contradiction at all. Gray shouldn't have been selected. Our forward setup never looked threatening. But did he being selected lose us the match? NO!!!

*We had plenty of opportunity to win, and controlled key parts of the game
*We shot ourselves on the foot esp in the 2nd by missing unmissable shots at goal.
*Atrocious turnovers in defense at critical times, e.g. DBJ kicking lace out to the oppo ... Goal!
*Wines clearly underdone, looking a shell of the player we know he is
*Our senior leaders going missing
*Losing our most damaging midfielder to concussion

But hell yeah, let's blame the selection of Sam Gray for the loss!

Pathetic!

Yeah there were a bunch of contributing factors in the loss but the sam gray selection over a tall was an entirely foreseeable problem that has unfolded before.

Several here called it long before it happened

That we would lose a tall for whatever reason and Hinkley would as always toss out the team structure that had been working to that point by selecting a small forward and our forward line would become disfunctional, and we would lose.

That’s why that particular contributing factor has got people riled up

We’ve seen it before. We know it’s going to happen. And it happens.

Despite all the other bull s**t we did wrong if Hinkley doesn’t Hinkley at selection we win that game even despite the flaws in our game that day.

 

[PAFC04]

Is everyone now composed?

Cause we weren’t in the last 5mins of the game. That is what cost us the game.

I thought we couldn’t win that game but we almost snatched it... that’s the reality I think.

 

[Contested Marx]

Aha.

Managed to screen grab the Rockliffe dry retching as a gif which I'll save for Thursday night selection reactions

I'm assuming he awoke from that knock and by the time he actually came to he's run out to the ¾ huddle, seen Sam Gary there and remembered where he was.

Poor fella

 

[Willsy10]

Anyone got some stats on our record in games decided by 3 goals or less?

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[OneGreatClub]

How often do we hear this comment?



And maybe we need a different group of these ‘experts’ the data analysts, at the club?
https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast...afl-podcast/id1456681987?mt=2&i=1000433999535

 

[Chewy316]

Anyone got some stats on our record in games decided by 3 goals or less?

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Since 2015 our record in games decided by 3 goals or less is 11 wins and 20 losses. From 2016 it is 7 wins 15 losses.

You would expect that things average out over the course of a season when it comes to close losses, but we have a knack of losing the ones in tight. This is a trend that has been consistent for a number of years and is concerning to say the least. Regardless of how they performed overall in the game itself, we struggle to convert that into tight wins. It improved last year winning some tight games (Richmond, Adelaide, Melbourne) but there is a monkey on the back still that is no where near coming off.

 

[Harlott]

Further to what tribey posted above, If you head over to our Changes v Brisbane thread from last week you'll see a bunch of us absolutely filthy and predicting this exact issue on selection night when we dropped Todd Marshall and replaced him with a small. We've seen it so many times over the Hinkley era, where we've completely ignored the aerial battle and allowed teams to completely dictate play by easily outsizing us at every marking contest.

It's nice to read an opposition supporter give the same analysis because the current raging argument on this board is whether the dropping of Marshall without replacing him positionally was the correct move or not.

I'm not sure that's the argument. I would love Marshall to remain in the team. I think the argument is whether the change cost us the game. Or whether it was the ridiculously consistent missing of easy shots at goal by Gray, Westhoff and Ebert plus that five minute period at the end where we conceded easy entries to their forward line probably due to Rocky and Gray being injured and a very out to of sorts co captain.

 

[Brian McGee]

Whilst I think that it was our poor kicking that lost us the game, sometimes there is an element of luck involved. Do people think that we would have still lost the game if Rockliff stayed out there the whole time and it was Lachie Neale that went off concussed just after half time? Sometimes unfortunately it is that small a thing that decides the close ones.

 

[Kiss from a Rozee]

I really don’t think our forward line was bad at all except for missing the easy chances they created.

SPP kicking it to absolutely no one after waltzing out of the middle multiple times was far more frustrating for me.

We’ll adjust and move forward. Bring on Richmond!

 

[yepits2020]

On the 14th of July, we are gunna kill Bribaaane.

 

[dav3]

Only seen the first quarter so far, we certainly wasted a lot of easy chances early. Going by a few of the comments it was the story of the night.

It also sounds like we need to stop ******* around with team structures. We found one that seemed to work, then we f**k it up with another Sam Gray experiment. I'm really hoping dropping Marshall was just a mental health move, because we need to get these kids learning how to play together as they're going to be our key players when our premiership window is open.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I'm not sure that's the argument. I would love Marshall to remain in the team. I think the argument is whether the change cost us the game. Or whether it was the ridiculously consistent missing of easy shots at goal by Gray, Westhoff and Ebert plus that five minute period at the end where we conceded easy entries to their forward line probably due to Rocky and Gray being injured and a very out to of sorts co captain.

Ultimately in any games you lose, there are a wide variety of factors that cost you the game, especially in a close one.

Janus summed it up well earlier.

If Watts plays instead of Howard, we win
If Rockliff doesn't get KO'd, we win
If Dixon plays, we win
If Marshall plays, we win
If any number of players take their opportunities to kick goals, we win

It's about controlling the controllables. We can't control injuries. We can absolutely do something about the mental strength of kicking goals from set shots in clutch moments, but ultimately it's about that player at that time. Westhoff and Gray have been bad at it for their entire careers and we know at this point that if we're relying on them to kick straight from set shots at key moments, we're more nervous than we were in 2014 when we were relying on Schulz and Wingard.

We dropped Marshall and lots of people on the board said that it would cost us in the forward line, which it did. We had 9 more inside 50s and absolutely dominated the centre clearances, which in the 666 system should give us a huge advantage, but the result was that the Brisbane defenders had a field day taking marks from our entries. We lost control of the aerial battle. We weren't able to exploit mismatches with Westhoff or Ebert like we usually can. It was a tactical anchor that made us a lot less effective moving the ball into the forward line, and a lot less flexible across the ground.

Could we have won anyway? Sure. Should we have won anyway? Absolutely given the chances we had. But we put ourselves at a disadvantage on Thursday night that made the entire game much more difficult than it needed to be. No one thing cost us the game, but leaving Marshall in was an easy and obvious decision that would have seen us take control of that game much earlier on and win in a canter.

 

[Harlott]

I really don’t think our forward line was bad at all except for missing the easy chances they created.

SPP kicking it to absolutely no one after waltzing out of the middle multiple times was far more frustrating for me.

We’ll adjust and move forward. Bring on Richmond!

That's just it. You can find a lot of things that consistently **** us up like the missed shots by experienced players, bombing into the forward line when you have time and space, copping an injury at a crucial time etc rather than the old SGray chestnut.

 

[Sleezy]

I watched the score ticking over while I was playing board games with some mates. I then let 15 or so hours go by before I watched the replay. I've now let the replay sink in. These are my thoughts:

1) The lions cut us up on the outside in Q1. I was very impressed that we were able to adjust and take their run away from them. We have a plan B, and we were able to work our way I to the game.

2) On at least 4 occasions I saw long balls into the forward 50 where a big pack formed, all our smalls stayed down but there was no tall going up. Smalls staying down - TICK. Talls staying down/not there - CROSS.

3) Dougal looked shell shocked, but worked his way into the game. Back in Dougs like we should have backed in Marshall.

4) To those saying R Gray is cooked - cooked players don't get 5 shots on goal. To those saying he's never played a worse game - I suggest you review the 2016 swans loss at the SCG and the 2017 Freo loss at Subiaco for a peak petulant Robbie Gray performance. He ******* needs to kick those goals though.

5) Westhoff, Motlop & S Gray round out the bottom 3 on ground for me with Doug's. So Poor. They need to do better.

6) Kicking inside 50 has regressed. I feel this was a symptom of higher pressure from a switched on opponent. Looking forward to seeing it improve from here on.

7) The kids are all right. Rozee, wow. Just wow. Butters is too fast for our own players, let alone the opposition.

8) Wines had a decent first quarter, but was rusty. Will improve. We can't have Wines, Rocky and Drew all in the same side. Drew was quiet but came into it in the last with Rocky off the field.

9) I think the condition s took their toll in the end. The lions are used to it, and we got tired. We will get better as a result of this game.

 

[PJ Power]

The key is to improve from that performance. The question is will we.

 

[Gadzorks]

I watched the score ticking over while I was playing board games with some mates. I then let 15 or so hours go by before I watched the replay. I've now let the replay sink in. These are my thoughts:

1) The lions cut us up on the outside in Q1. I was very impressed that we were able to adjust and take their run away from them. We have a plan B, and we were able to work our way I to the game.

2) On at least 4 occasions I saw long balls into the forward 50 where a big pack formed, all our smalls stayed down but there was no tall going up. Smalls staying down - TICK. Talls staying down/not there - CROSS.

3) Dougal looked shell shocked, but worked his way into the game. Back in Dougs like we should have backed in Marshall.

4) To those saying R Gray is cooked - cooked players don't get 5 shots on goal. To those saying he's never played a worse game - I suggest you review the 2016 swans loss at the SCG and the 2017 Freo loss at Subiaco for a peak petulant Robbie Gray performance. He ******* needs to kick those goals though.

5) Westhoff, Motlop & S Gray round out the bottom 3 on ground for me with Doug's. So Poor. They need to do better.

6) Kicking inside 50 has regressed. I feel this was a symptom of higher pressure from a switched on opponent. Looking forward to seeing it improve from here on.

7) The kids are all right. Rozee, wow. Just wow. Butters is too fast for our own players, let alone the opposition.

8) Wines had a decent first quarter, but was rusty. Will improve. We can't have Wines, Rocky and Drew all in the same side. Drew was quiet but came into it in the last with Rocky off the field.

9) I think the condition s took their toll in the end. The lions are used to it, and we got tired. We will get better as a result of this game.

Rozee was super impressive. Still way to early to call but that's ignorable logic - he'a going to be a gun. Looked right at home.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

FWIW: https://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/video/2019-04-08/all-the-goals-round-3-ptv

 

[Burton89onegoal]

Brisbane are up and about...time to get rid of their Academy picks.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Champion Data's table from the paper. Not as much green as past 2 games, a bit more red but plenty of white ie average.

Rozee obviously had a lot of green. SPP drove it 699m which probably is a record for him. Rozee's pressure acts were down on the first 2 games, probably because he got a lot more of the ball in dangerous positions this game as his score involvements were way up. I reckon DBJ's metres gained in the first half were probably 70% of his total.

Supposedly our 51% time in forward half was 30% up but that must be for away games. Brisbane's marks inside 50 and % goals inside 50 were in the green and we were average.

Our pressure acts were above average in the first 3 quarters was above average but last quarter and total were average. Brisbane were the opposite.

Shots on goal 29 was above average, accuracy was average, our Xpected score from the shots we had was 103 above average but we scored 90. Brisbane accuracy was above their average their Xpected score was 90, average, but they scored an above average 107.

There lies the basic difference in the game.




Plenty of green for Brisbane's mids and a couple of defenders and not as much red. Neale's clearances, 16, were in the green. On the radio I heard he had 6 centre clearances - Brisbane got 10 and we got 21. Total was 43 them v 47 Port. They won most of the differential stats.

Rucks were pretty even. Fres we were in the green with 22 and in the green with 9 in the forward 50.

Inside 50's we were above average in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and total - but when it counted in the last quarter, Brisbane were above average.

 

[Port_Girl_92]

Reality is the Captain is no chance of getting dropped. Wines first game back, he'll be better next week, and better again the week after that.

He might be better, but the question is, is the team better?

Ollie is a bull a raging one at that. He wins inside ball, he gets clearances, but god almighty he cannot use the ball to save his life.

Drew on the other hand has surgeon like precision and seems to be quite switched on above the shoudlers. He wins inside ball (not as much has Ollie when fully fit) but his decision making is freakin awesome for a kid in his 3rd game of AFL footy. This is only going to get better.

We're stuck in the fu(king same problem we had over the past few years where we can't drop the captain despite them making us a poorer team.

Drew and Rocky worked.

Ollie and Rocky and Drew did not work, not only did it effected Drew but it effected Rocky too.

The structure of the first two weeks has been thrown out in preference of playing our 'captain' because ports.

I dont see us doing anything with Ollie in the team, in an ideal world he stays out until there's an injury to Pig or Drew but it just won't happen, so put your seat belts on guys its going to be a long season.

 

[David Puddy]

Motlop is soft as butter, does some good things but my grandma would attack the contest harder than he does.

Robbie, Hoff, Ebert - probably played over 30 years of senior football between them and still can't kick a f****** set shot from dead in front.

Ken - get absolutely f***** and take Sam Gray with you.

 

[portforever]

Champion Data's table from the paper. Not as much green as past 2 games, a bit more red but plenty of white ie average.

Rozee obviously had a lot of green. SPP drove it 699m which probably is a record for him. Rozee's pressure acts were down on the first 2 games, probably because he got a lot more of the ball in dangerous positions this game as his score involvements were way up. I reckon DBJ's metres gained in the first half were probably 70% of his total.

Supposedly our 51% time in forward half was 30% up but that must be for away games. Brisbane's marks inside 50 and % goals inside 50 were in the green and we were average.

Our pressure acts were above average in the first 3 quarters was above average but last quarter and total were average. Brisbane were the opposite.

Shots on goal 29 was above average, accuracy was average, our Xpected score from the shots we had was 103 above average but we scored 90. Brisbane accuracy was above their average their Xpected score was 90, average, but they scored an above average 107.

There lies the basic difference in the game.

View attachment 650531


Plenty of green for Brisbane's mids and a couple of defenders and not as much red. Neale's clearances, 16, were in the green. On the radio I heard he had 6 centre clearances - Brisbane got 10 and we got 21. Total was 43 them v 47 Port. They won most of the differential stats.

Rucks were pretty even. Fres we were in the green with 22 and in the green with 9 in the forward 50.

Inside 50's we were above average in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and total - but when it counted in the last quarter, Brisbane were above average.
View attachment 650549

For me the one stat that stands out is the marks for each team
Our forward entries were getting snapped up too much by aerial supremacy of Lions . Look at the difference in both teams marks
Port does not have the marking power to match the better sides in the Afl. We need to get the balance right.

 

[PJ Power]

Motlop is soft as butter, does some good things but my grandma would attack the contest harder than he does.

Robbie, Hoff, Ebert - probably played over 30 years of senior football between them and still can't kick a f****** set shot from dead in front.

Ken - get absolutely f***** and take Sam Gray with you.

Sums up about 80% of the problems we had on Saturday night. Add in Howard and Bonner’s defensive ineptitude, the countless clanger kicks (OOF anyone?) and lack of composure, Ollie’s rust and Rockliff’s concussion, and that’s how we managed to lose.

 

[porttoport]

I really don’t think our forward line was bad at all except for missing the easy chances they created.

SPP kicking it to absolutely no one after waltzing out of the middle multiple times was far more frustrating for me.

We’ll adjust and move forward. Bring on Richmond!

SPP probably couldn't spot our dwarfs amongst the trees


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[afl2004]

Motlop should be very disappointed with himself, wanted more midfield time and then shurks the hard stuff