Review Round 3, 2023 - Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions

[Gadzorks]

Vid in this link shows the segment showing how Hippy is constantly in no mans land.

‘You’re getting it wrong’: Lions’ big dilemma exposed amid ‘next to useless’ claims

‘You’re getting it wrong’: Lions’ big dilemma exposed amid ‘next to useless’ claims

www.foxsports.com.au

Ouch.

You can't coach heart and Eric (plus other stars) isn't playing with heart.

Reset expectations - go to the gabba, have a hoot watching my team and don't watch the scoreboard. Don't watch away games.

Happy footy.

 

[Gadzorks]

90% of my all time highlights from watching the Lions are Jared.

Rhan Hooper still makes me smile. He could run.

 

[KissKiss]

Some thoughts on our season so far. I'm a glass half full person so work with me here.

1st game. Port & Hinkley getting smashed in the media. They got them self primed to smash us. Just like Dad said in his interview.

2nd game. Lions smashed in the media and playing at home. Hold big grudges against Melbourne. Lot of talent in our team. We win but it is a hard physical game early in the season leaving the boys sore.

3rd game. Doggies & Bevo smashed in the media. They got them self primed to smash us and we are still sore from last weeks game. Coupled with a changing game plan, new players still syncing and we are off the mark and lose by a couple of goals away.

Pies game coming up. Lions switched on. Game on. Not sure we will win but confident we will have a go. I don't think our season is finished or a disaster yet.

I just worry that it keeps the same pattern going. We have another up game at home so everyone goes see looks it fine. Thats how nothing changes and the problems keep getting ignored

 

[martinson]

The thing with Eric is that he's low on confidence and that seems to have sapped his energy to run and contest, and particularly defend where necessary.

He's just a liability at present.

 

[Viceregal]

That is a huge worry, although still a small sample size the good sides this season are playing gut running, quick play on, running past receiving handballs, running in waves footy.

Not a worry at all - I have seen us do that at least once this year!

 

[Dalions]

I just worry that it keeps the same pattern going. We have another up game at home so everyone goes see looks it fine. Thats how nothing changes and the problems keep getting ignored

So you don’t want them to have a good game and win at home?
It’s generally not what we do when we are at home it’s what happens when we are away that needs fixing.
2 away games after this one to get things back on track.

 

[Mr Ripper]

Yeah, don't necessarily take anything Kingy et al say as gospel. Their MO is: pick a narrative; cherry pick footage that fits that narrative; cherry pick obscure stats to back them up; bang on about it for weeks until player/coach/team turns form around and then stfu.

 

[twhowler]

Ouch.

You can't coach heart and Eric (plus other stars) isn't playing with heart.

Reset expectations - go to the gabba, have a hoot watching my team and don't watch the scoreboard. Don't watch away games.

Happy footy.

I think by far the most damning thing is that through the entire footage never ONCE does he get out of a job. Whatever he was supposed to be doing - presenting, being a dummy, crumbing - never did he run.

I really wish both our big key forwards would get on the lead more. It is so hard to spoil 200cm players legally when the ball is kicked to them well. Hipwood kicked multiple goals on the lead in the first two finals games. Against Richmond they kept arm-chopping him because he's too bloody tall.

 

[martinson]

I think by far the most damning thing is that through the entire footage never ONCE does he get out of a job. Whatever he was supposed to be doing - presenting, being a dummy, crumbing - never did he run.

I really wish both our big key forwards would get on the lead more. It is so hard to spoil 200cm players legally when the ball is kicked to them well. Hipwood kicked multiple goals on the lead in the first two finals games. Against Richmond they kept arm-chopping him because he's too bloody tall.

Totally agree. With all the mumbo jumbo about Kingy cherry picking and people describing the intricacies of forward entries and what everyone should be doing the most obvious thing that stood out was that he barely moved, tried to go with his man or create another option. . Just wandered around.

 

[LongLion]

Expecting a big game from Hippy on Thursday

 

[M Malice]

Just watched the Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

28

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

Youi gamechanger highlights on lions.com, gee he looked really back to his best, was that the case or was it selective editing?

BTW who was on JUH for most of the night?

 

[On the quiet]

Just watched the Harris Andrews Youi gamechanger highlights on lions.com, gee he looked really back to his best, was that the case or was it selective editing?

BTW who was on JUH for most of the night?

Joyce mostly on JUH. Mind you one or two soft penalties handed out to JUH, including one committed by Harris.

Harris had a good matchup with distinct height advantage and he was able to peel off and intercept, which is his strength.

 

[Viceregal]

I think by far the most damning thing is that through the entire footage never ONCE does he get out of a job. Whatever he was supposed to be doing - presenting, being a dummy, crumbing - never did he run.

Totally agree. With all the mumbo jumbo about Kingy cherry picking and people describing the intricacies of forward entries and what everyone should be doing the most obvious thing that stood out was that he barely moved, tried to go with his man or create another option. . Just wandered around.

I noticed him not moving all that fast then I realised that he was moving at the same pace as his opponent.

My issue wasn't that he wasn't moving fast, it was that he was just following the other guy around when it is supposed to be the other guys job to follow Eric around. If he changed direction and went into space maybe the other guy would have to pay more attention to him and so not be available to crumb etc.

Eric, by his actions, needs to demand more respect (or enjoy the goal-fruits of such respect not being paid) ... can you imagine how much fun Charlie would have if his opponent was jogging off into the distance in front of him!

 

[Tom14]

Yeah, don't necessarily take anything Kingy et al say as gospel. Their MO is: pick a narrative; cherry pick footage that fits that narrative; cherry pick obscure stats to back them up; bang on about it for weeks until player/coach/team turns form around and then stfu.

The question I have for Kingy and Joey and the fox footy analysis crew is - What is your brand? What do you stand for? Who among you is going to stand up and say 'Hey boys, I've got a fresh set of takes from Champion Data, come with me!'

On a side note, its very funny that Kingy has repeatedly been passed over for On the Couch for years with relative newcomers getting the gig.

 

[martinson]

The question I have for Kingy and Joey and the fox footy analysis crew is - What is your brand? What do you stand for? Who among you is going to stand up and say 'Hey boys, I've got a fresh set of takes from Champion Data, come with me!'

On a side note, its very funny that Kingy has repeatedly been passed over for On the Couch for years with relative newcomers getting the gig.

Most of these guys try to bamboozle everyone with data and supposed in depth analysis to give the impression they have greater insights than everyone else out there.

The issue with Kingy is that he's much like he was as a player. Just plain annoying.

 

[M Malice]

Statistics in so many cases can be moulded to fit an already perceived narrative, and not only in footy but life in general, causation v correlation discussion.

Prime example in footy is hit out stats... they mean absolutely Jack Shite.

 

[briztoon]

Champion data fed Kingy the stat that Hipwood is their lowest rated 100 game player 2 weeks ago, so he'll be banging on about it for another few weeks until he gets a new drop of talking points.

I’m trying to work out what is wrong with this.

I’m not defending King on this, but what is wrong using the games data to highlight positives or negatives?

It’s just not Fox that use Champion Data. ESPN Australia pay for access. So to SEN. I’m guessing Fox has to pay for the information as well.

So King and Montagna, etc are the face of the show, and there are staff who put together the segments, data, etc.

 

[Tom14]

I’m trying to work out what is wrong with this.

I’m not defending King on this, but what is wrong using the games data to highlight positives or negatives?

It’s just not Fox that use Champion Data. ESPN Australia pay for access. So to SEN. I’m guessing Fox has to pay for the information as well.

So King and Montagna, etc are the face of the show, and there are staff who put together the segments, data, etc.

I have no issue with the use of data, I have an issue locking the data away and not even opening it up for members of the public to access or buy. I'm sorry, but I don't trust King or Sam Landsberger or others to have done the leg work on this stuff, or have a proper appreciation of basic statistical concepts to then be able to explain and understand it. Data is incredibly useful, data only being provided to the public via a select few forums doesn't mean we get useful data!

Sure there might be some staff involved in preparing the segments but having watched a lot of the stats focused content (e.g. Purefooty with Daniel Hoyne and Kingy), you don't get told the context that goes with the numbers, or the caveats. Without better access to the data, there can't be any good interrogation of the underlying data to try understand it a bit better, or place it in context - which is not done by Kingy in quite a few cases.

The whole AFL and Champion Data's approach to data accessibility is quite frankly embarrassing. The AFL Player Ratings twitter account no longer posts the rankings for each game, because the Champion Data employee who developed it as part of a post-graduate thesis left the company. THis was pre-finals last year. Instead if you want to find it you have to search through the AFL stats page, which itself has got far worse in navigating over the years. You used to be able to easily pull up a lot of relevant stats quite quickly, but its much harder to find interesting stuff (e.g. contested defensive 1v1s).

Its a damning indictment of the league that most of the advanced analytics/tipping models run for things like Squiggle often rely on the AFL Tables website for the raw stats, which as far as anyone can work out is totally maintained by someone in their free time with no remuneration rather than the league website!

In conclusion: data useful but isn't everything, I pay attention to what Kingy gets from Champion data because its one of the only ways to get access to the stats, but it is very frustrating having to because Kingy often doesn't understand what he is being told and says stupid stuff.

For example:



Incredible that Robbo and Joey Montagna nod wonderingly at Kingy's incredible stat that there is an even win-loss record when top 8 teams play each other! These are the people who get access to the stats and we are meant to trust that they understand even basic concepts enough to tell the story correctly?

 

[On the quiet]

Having read the article now I think the bit I'm most offended by is their commetns on the defence. To me the problem on Thursday was the total absence of dare and risk in ball movement, and our players were overly concerned with helping out in team defence and then were unwilling or unable to run hard in attack, not that Joyce and Payne were being beaten by their forwards.

Joyce and Payne have been fine enough from a defensive point of view, but they present big issues in terms of their ball use right now. I don't mean in terms of making mistakes (although they have, but so have others), but in terms of speed of decision-making and willingness to bite off difficult kicks. Too often we ended up with one of them with the ball having to make the call to quickly kick in board to the corridor or switch, and they don't have the skill or the willingness to do it consistently. We needed to get better ball users ready to take a quick handball from them more often.

After ranking 1st for scoring from chains started in D50 last year we are now bottom (only 3 rounds so a fair bit to play out, but not a good starting spot). We have to find a way to transition the ball more rapidly whilst still continuing to correct our defensive system and helping out the back 6.

With Payne and on most occasions Joyce last line of defence there are not too many options with a small running back of their hip for a quick handball. Kiddy and Cam and a lesser extent Wilmont seem to press forward when we have the ball. Both are still feeling their way so perhaps are a bit hesitant to take the risky corridor kick. I think they could be a little quicker at times with their disposal but this might not be the week to try. I think we should be slowing the game down as much as we can this week to take some rhythm out of Collingwood's fast manic go forward style underpinned by their mids and wingers.

With our height advantage this week the safest options for these two and arguably Harris is to kick long down the line to a contest where we should be able to at least get a stoppage. Surely Big O can outmark McStay and or Frampton down the line and providing Joe can put some body work into Moore to stop him marking down the line, we can then hopefully when the hitout.

Looking forward to the game, I think as a couple of other posters have stated, that back at the GABBA and with Collingwoods injuries we get them at a good time.

 

[On the quiet]

Expecting a big game from Hippy on Thursday

If Moore goes to Joe, Hippy is likely marked by Frampton (if not relieving in the ruck) or their 3rd defender Murphy. Providing our mids can match it with Collingwood I believe Eric is in for a reasonably good game.

 

[Elixuh]

I have no issue with the use of data, I have an issue locking the data away and not even opening it up for members of the public to access or buy. I'm sorry, but I don't trust King or Sam Landsberger or others to have done the leg work on this stuff, or have a proper appreciation of basic statistical concepts to then be able to explain and understand it. Data is incredibly useful, data only being provided to the public via a select few forums doesn't mean we get useful data!

Sure there might be some staff involved in preparing the segments but having watched a lot of the stats focused content (e.g. Purefooty with Daniel Hoyne and Kingy), you don't get told the context that goes with the numbers, or the caveats. Without better access to the data, there can't be any good interrogation of the underlying data to try understand it a bit better, or place it in context - which is not done by Kingy in quite a few cases.

The whole AFL and Champion Data's approach to data accessibility is quite frankly embarrassing. The AFL Player Ratings twitter account no longer posts the rankings for each game, because the Champion Data employee who developed it as part of a post-graduate thesis left the company. THis was pre-finals last year. Instead if you want to find it you have to search through the AFL stats page, which itself has got far worse in navigating over the years. You used to be able to easily pull up a lot of relevant stats quite quickly, but its much harder to find interesting stuff (e.g. contested defensive 1v1s).

Its a damning indictment of the league that most of the advanced analytics/tipping models run for things like Squiggle often rely on the AFL Tables website for the raw stats, which as far as anyone can work out is totally maintained by someone in their free time with no remuneration rather than the league website!

In conclusion: data useful but isn't everything, I pay attention to what Kingy gets from Champion data because its one of the only ways to get access to the stats, but it is very frustrating having to because Kingy often doesn't understand what he is being told and says stupid stuff.

For example:



Incredible that Robbo and Joey Montagna nod wonderingly at Kingy's incredible stat that there is an even win-loss record when top 8 teams play each other! These are the people who get access to the stats and we are meant to trust that they understand even basic concepts enough to tell the story correctly?

Mods pls sticky this. I feel like half the board is getting fooled by David King's loopy segments.

So at a guess, the way it would work is King would identify an underperforming team then a player from that team like Hipwood, ask for an edit package of clips to build a narrative around, cherry pick from those clips and then cherry pick stats to fit those clips.

He did it with someone from our team last year (I can't for the life of me remember who, it might have been Clug) and cherry picked like 3 clips from a game to demonstrate poor defensive effort. Because it was a late afternoon game you could see he cherry picked clips from the last quarter of the game (after the sun had set) when the game was over because we had a large lead. He didn't show any of the clips from when the game was in balance and this player was one of our best on.

 

[Dalions]

Mods pls sticky this. I feel like half the board is getting fooled by David King's loopy segments.

So at a guess, the way it would work is King would identify an underperforming team then a player from that team like Hipwood, ask for an edit package of clips to build a narrative around, cherry pick from those clips and then cherry pick stats to fit those clips.

He did it with someone from our team last year (I can't for the life of me remember who, it might have been Clug) and cherry picked like 3 clips from a game to demonstrate poor defensive effort. Because it was a late afternoon game you could see he cherry picked clips from the last quarter of the game (after the sun had set) when the game was over because we had a large lead. He didn't show any of the clips from when the game was in balance and this player was one of our best on.

I think the one last year was showing how Clugga was being too aggressive and moving forward of the contest before the ball was won and therefore left us exposed if we didn’t win it.

 

[Elixuh]

I think the one last year was showing how Clugga was being too aggressive and moving forward of the contest before the ball was won and therefore left us exposed if we didn’t win it.

Yeah I couldn't remember the details, I just remember the edit package was so manufactured and misrepresented what King was saying but you would only appreciate that if you had watched the game and realised the context re the time of day of the edit package. So 99% of the audience wouldn't be any the wiser.

 

[Tom14]

Yeah I couldn't remember the details, I just remember the edit package was so manufactured and misrepresented what King was saying but you would only appreciate that if you had watched the game and realised the context re the time of day of the edit package. So 99% of the audience wouldn't be any the wiser.

I feel like there was another one with similar late game edits from the freo game when we left frederick open a bit in the last. Which was fair enough, you could see that he hadn't faced any defensive attention at all... if you ignored that we were down in hte game and getting belted in clearances, and were trying to generate some movement by having zork start at centre half back and sprint right into the stoppage to try pick up a handball receive. But not having that context at all made it pretty misleading.

There are some good segments where they show film and you learn something, but when it is your team and you watch them in person multiple times a year you do start to appreciate what is left out of the analysis.

 

[martinson]

I have no issue with the use of data, I have an issue locking the data away and not even opening it up for members of the public to access or buy. I'm sorry, but I don't trust King or Sam Landsberger or others to have done the leg work on this stuff, or have a proper appreciation of basic statistical concepts to then be able to explain and understand it. Data is incredibly useful, data only being provided to the public via a select few forums doesn't mean we get useful data!

Sure there might be some staff involved in preparing the segments but having watched a lot of the stats focused content (e.g. Purefooty with Daniel Hoyne and Kingy), you don't get told the context that goes with the numbers, or the caveats. Without better access to the data, there can't be any good interrogation of the underlying data to try understand it a bit better, or place it in context - which is not done by Kingy in quite a few cases.

The whole AFL and Champion Data's approach to data accessibility is quite frankly embarrassing. The AFL Player Ratings twitter account no longer posts the rankings for each game, because the Champion Data employee who developed it as part of a post-graduate thesis left the company. THis was pre-finals last year. Instead if you want to find it you have to search through the AFL stats page, which itself has got far worse in navigating over the years. You used to be able to easily pull up a lot of relevant stats quite quickly, but its much harder to find interesting stuff (e.g. contested defensive 1v1s).

Its a damning indictment of the league that most of the advanced analytics/tipping models run for things like Squiggle often rely on the AFL Tables website for the raw stats, which as far as anyone can work out is totally maintained by someone in their free time with no remuneration rather than the league website!

In conclusion: data useful but isn't everything, I pay attention to what Kingy gets from Champion data because its one of the only ways to get access to the stats, but it is very frustrating having to because Kingy often doesn't understand what he is being told and says stupid stuff.

For example:



Incredible that Robbo and Joey Montagna nod wonderingly at Kingy's incredible stat that there is an even win-loss record when top 8 teams play each other! These are the people who get access to the stats and we are meant to trust that they understand even basic concepts enough to tell the story correctly?

It's footy Tom.

The 'experts' and people commenting on it aren't Einstein . They talk stats but would have not even the basic understanding of maths/data etc. let alone any advanced quals to analyse it correctly.

Overall though it's ridiculous that the AFL doesn't provide funding so that the public and everyone involved in dream teams , comps or whatever they do has access to accurate and advanced data. It can only benefit understanding of the game and greater interest in being more involved.