TY24
Too Eze
- Mar 21, 2017
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THE OWEN DERBY - WEST COAST EAGLES v. COCKBURN
SUNDAY, MARCH 30 - 3.10PM BOUNCEDOWN @ OPTUS STADIUM
SUNDAY, MARCH 30 - 3.10PM BOUNCEDOWN @ OPTUS STADIUM
Well campaigners, I'm not sure anyone expected this. As we prepare for our first RAC Derby of the season this Sunday, both sides are coming into the bout with a 0-2 record. Both sides have suffered one massacre and one 'honourable loss' this season, and both will be hungry to break their duck this weekend.
LAST TIME THEY MET
Technically, this would be our meeting with Fremantle in Round 20 last year. HOWEVER, that game doesn't suit the narrative I'm trying to spin, so I'm choosing to ignore it. Cry moar, kents.
One man came out with fire in their belly, but he wasn't wearing purple and white. In just his 6th senior game, one Harley Reid announced himself as a kid who thrives on the big stage.
Harley's stat line in his 6th career game: 19 disposals (@84%), 7 clearances, 6 score involvements, 3 goals, one dual Brownlow Medallist dumped on his arse.
Oh, and one entire fan base rattled to the point where they booed every possession he had in his next derby (29 with 10 clearances for those following at home).
After the media shitstorm that has followed him from the day he returned back from his off-season, I'm fully expecting Harley to come out breathing fire again. We saw some glimpses of what he can do in the second half against Brisbane, the amount of dribble that's been spoken about him in the past 2 weeks combined with the big stage of a home derby will be the spark he needs to return to his best footy.
Harley wasn't a lone soldier in this fixture last year though. Plenty of Eagles stood tall and played some great footy that night. Snakey kicked 5. TK had 24 touches, 5 clearances, and 7 tackles. Yeo had 26 touches, 6 clearances, and a goal. Gov and some other curly haired yahoo combined for 20 marks. Dom Sheed also had 2 of the finest disposals you've ever seen (and pointed at 18 people outside the stoppage, love you Dommy).
Freo came into the game thinking they'd play us off the park and cruise to an easy win. We caught them with their pants down, kicking the first 7 goals of the game, holding Freo goalless until halfway through the second term.
CAN WE DO IT AGAIN?
Personally, I'd be surprised if we catch Fremantle out again. They would be aware of how well we played on the weekend, and they'll be expecting us to be up for the fight this time. However, if both teams play they did on the weekend, we're definitely in with a shout, especially if we bring the pressure again.
Fremantle's forward line remains their Achilles heel. Yes, they've finally found a proper KPF in Treacy, however everyone around him is still meh at best. Their starting forwards vs. Sydney were: Murphy Reid, Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, Patrick Voss, Michael Frederick, and Shai Bolton, with Bailey Banfield on the bench.
Bolton and Treacy are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of their forward line. Reid has shown he's got talent and we shouldn't be underestimating him, he's showed already that he's a smooth mover, great decision maker, and clearly knows where the goals are. Amiss is a known quanity: shite. Voss played an absolute blinder on the weekend; for Sydney. He missed 2 sitters, then confused his ambitions with his ability, turning it over with a brutally butchered corridor kick that resulted in a late Sydney goal. Costly. Freddy can be dangerous but is a bit of a downhill skier, and Banfield is still Banfield.
(The first T column is tackles, the second T column is turnovers. Shoutout to the AFL website for this incredible decision.)
Looking at their forward line's performance v. Sydney, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Fredrick's performance was so anonymous that I couldn't even get him in the screenshot. Shai Bolton had a quiet day too.
If we can keep Treacy on the chain and not let him have a run at the footy, that will go a long way to us winning this game. Without him, their forward line looks quite hapless.
KEY MATCHUPS
Treacy tends to push further up the ground than Voss, so I suspect we'll be more than happy for him to do so if it means he's not the one taking marks inside 50. Voss was their deepest forward last week, so naturally Edwards will look after him.
Expect Brady Hassellhough to do a job on Shai Bolton whenever he drifts forward.
As far as a midfield tag goes, we haven't seen too much of it so far this season (considering we let Rowell and Anderson do as they pleased in Round 1). I'm not sure who we would go to if we were to tag out of Serong and Brayshaw (Graham and Hall may give them some extra attention in the middle but I'm not expecting a hard tag). Neither of them have had a great start to the season so I'd be surprised if at least one of them didn't come out with a point to prove. Brayshaw doesn't tend to cope very well with extra physical attention, as we saw in the second derby last year, so I hope we look to exploit that. No Hayden Young in the midfield will be a big boost for us as well.
A big question mark going into this game is once again what our ruck combination looks like. I'm expecting Archer Reid to have a well earned rest after these first two weeks, so assuming BBW gets up I'm expecting to see Billiams and Jilliams combating against a lone Luke Jackson.
KEY FACTOR: THE WEATHER
Forecasts earlier in the week had us pencilled in for another game in the 30's to start the year, however we're now looking at 29 with a slight chance of a shower. Still not a great outlook, especially following our mammoth efforts on a balmy Sunday afternoon in Queensland with 80% humidity.
God forbid we schedule a derby at night while it's still 30+ degrees during the day here in sunny Perf.
Above: TY24 to whatever muppet at AFL house scheduled our first 3 games to be played at the hottest part of the day in the 2 hottest states in the country
INS AND OUTS
Bailey Williams isn't currently on the injury list however there are a few who suspect he may have something a little more severe than cramp. Definitely one to watch as game day approaches.
Graham comes straight in if fit, who for is the million dollar question. My bet would be for Noah Long, although I admit I'm not sure how that looks for team balance. My thinking would be that Long goes out, Hewett moves into a more HFF role and will rotate with Graham through the middle. Happy for someone who's more clued onto it than I am to provide some insight here.
Jake Waterman is also listed as a test, however I'd prefer the club to take a cautious approach with him and give him another week, given our history of picking blokes when they're underdone.
Other Eagles waiting in the wings for a possible call up include Tom Gross, Harvey Johnston, and Bo Allan. I'd be surprised if we see any of these boys come in without a late out though.
All in all, I'm only expecting to see:
Out: A. Reid, Long
In: J. Williams, Graham
MY PREDICTION
My head knows every time I start to feel optimistic about our beloved Eagles, they find a way to knock the wind out of my sails again. My heart loves this club and sees our performance against Brisbane as a more accurate indicator of where we're at than the first round bottle job we served up. Green shoots everywhere, pressure and effort were there, and middle fingers were raised. I'm expecting the lads to come out with a point to prove and I genuinely think we're a decent chance of winning this game, condemning our neighbours to a 0-3 start in the process.
Expect some unsociable footy, with plenty of scraps. There's no way Fremantle aren't going to go out of their way to try and fire Harley up and distract him, here's hoping he can give it back large without giving away too many free kicks and taking away from his overall game. It should be a cracking contest.
Prediction: West Coast by 15 points, Harley to raise another middle finger to the AFL world with 25 and 3 goals, taking home the Ross Glendenning-Bo Allan Medal (how kind of them to name it after two West Coast players).
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