eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Melbourne: Had a downright spanking at the hands of Geelong, losing by 80 points in the end, everyone looking underdone still. Clayton Oliver was a shining light once more, having 44 disposals, 15 of them clearances, whilst Jake Melksham's 2 goals tied his goal tally between his two clubs, although doing it in 70 less games for the Dees.
Essendon: Were terrible against St. Kilda, not kicking a goal in the first quarter again before tryin to claw their way back and losing to the Saints by 2 goals. Zach Merrett had a poor first half but his second half helped lift the team, having 28 disposals whilst Michael Hurley took 14 marks in defence, and captain Dyson Heppell was the only multiple goal scorer with 2.
Head to Head (last 5)
Melbourne 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Melbourne: 0W 2L
Essendon: 0W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Melbourne: $1.37
Essendon: $2.95
Line: 16.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Melbourne vs Essendon
B: Francis - Hurley - Saad
F: Weideman - Preuss - Bedford
HB: McKenna - Ambrose - Ridley
HF: Neal-Bullen - T McDonald - Melksham
C: McGrath - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Kolodjashnij - Oliver - Jones
HF: Fantasia - Stewart - D Smith
HB: Salem - O McDonald - Jetta
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Z Clarke - Stringer
B: Hibberd - May - Frost
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Gawn - Harmes - Viney
I: D Clarke - Laverde - Parish - Mutch
I: Wagner - Fritsch - Lockhart - Brayshaw
Melbourne in: Preuss, Wagner, Bedford; Out: Petracca, Hunt, Sparrow
Essendon in: Stewart, Clarke, Ridley, Laverde, Clarke, Mutch; Out: Brown, McKernan, Guelfi, Myers, Baguley, Zaharakis
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been a shambles so far in 2019, kicking a goal only 13.2% of the time it's entered there in the frst two games. Melbourne's defence hasn't held up well so far, conceding a goal 29.9% of the time it enters inside 50. As a result of the first two rounds, Essendon may make significant changes to their forward line, bringing in a second ruck in Zac Clarke who averaged over 1 goal/game in the WAFL last year and James Stewart who probably deserves another shot at AFL level. Jake Stringer is probably the main man however, the leading goal scorer from last year needing support from the underperforming Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia, who haven't had their usual spark. Melbourne's defenders match up well on the Essendon forwards, so look forward to a tight tussle between the groups, especially between Oscar McDonald and Stewart, and Neville Jetta against Fantasia.
Midfield/rucks battle
So far this year these two teams have been winning clearances in their games, but that's about it. Both teams have been spanked in contested possessions around the ground, and their delivery inside 50 has been lower than average. The two teams have good names on paper, Essendon having the likes of Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett as part of their midfield rotation whilst Melbourne have Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney and Nathan Jones but neither seem to be getting the results so far on the inside of the stoppage. In terms of outside run, Essendon will be looking to the likes of Andrew McGrath and Kobe Mutch to provide a lot of that, an inexperienced duo in terms of games played, whilst Kade Kolodjashnij and Corey Wagner seem to be the two that may do that for Melbourne this week. The rucks is probably going to be as one sided as ever, Max Gawn has a history of dominance against the Dons, and Tom Bellchambers generally struggles against the top echelon of ruckmen, but he needs to have a good game here.
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne's forward line has fared pretty badly in the first two games, kicking a goal only 12.7% of the time it entered their forward third of the ground. Essendon has been below average in this area, conceding a goal 24.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Melbourne's key talls have all got a height advantage over their likely match ups, Brayden Preuss having 13 cm's on Michael Hurley, Sam Weideman having 2cm on Aaron Francis and Tom McDonald 1 cm over Patrick Ambrose, which will make them more likely to bring the ball to ground. Jordan Ridley is likely to play on former Don Jake Melksham, and this is very important as Melksham is probably the Dee's best forward over the past couple of years, whilst Adam Saad could be matched up on first gamer Toby Bedford, a slippery small forward.
X-Factor Player
Jay Lockhart 3 weeks ago was training with Casey. Now he's playing the top level for Melbourne after a couple of excellent years in the VFL, and is one to watch for this game
Key stat
Melbourne: Clearances. The Dees boast a strong midfield on paper, they should get the job done against Essendon.
Essendon: Inside 50's. They need to smash the Dees in this regard, as Melbourne's defence has shown to be brittle so far this season.
Tip
Cripple fight! Dons by 15
Melbourne: Had a downright spanking at the hands of Geelong, losing by 80 points in the end, everyone looking underdone still. Clayton Oliver was a shining light once more, having 44 disposals, 15 of them clearances, whilst Jake Melksham's 2 goals tied his goal tally between his two clubs, although doing it in 70 less games for the Dees.
Essendon: Were terrible against St. Kilda, not kicking a goal in the first quarter again before tryin to claw their way back and losing to the Saints by 2 goals. Zach Merrett had a poor first half but his second half helped lift the team, having 28 disposals whilst Michael Hurley took 14 marks in defence, and captain Dyson Heppell was the only multiple goal scorer with 2.
Head to Head (last 5)
Melbourne 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Melbourne: 0W 2L
Essendon: 0W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Melbourne: $1.37
Essendon: $2.95
Line: 16.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Melbourne vs Essendon
B: Francis - Hurley - Saad
F: Weideman - Preuss - Bedford
HB: McKenna - Ambrose - Ridley
HF: Neal-Bullen - T McDonald - Melksham
C: McGrath - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Kolodjashnij - Oliver - Jones
HF: Fantasia - Stewart - D Smith
HB: Salem - O McDonald - Jetta
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Z Clarke - Stringer
B: Hibberd - May - Frost
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Gawn - Harmes - Viney
I: D Clarke - Laverde - Parish - Mutch
I: Wagner - Fritsch - Lockhart - Brayshaw
Melbourne in: Preuss, Wagner, Bedford; Out: Petracca, Hunt, Sparrow
Essendon in: Stewart, Clarke, Ridley, Laverde, Clarke, Mutch; Out: Brown, McKernan, Guelfi, Myers, Baguley, Zaharakis
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been a shambles so far in 2019, kicking a goal only 13.2% of the time it's entered there in the frst two games. Melbourne's defence hasn't held up well so far, conceding a goal 29.9% of the time it enters inside 50. As a result of the first two rounds, Essendon may make significant changes to their forward line, bringing in a second ruck in Zac Clarke who averaged over 1 goal/game in the WAFL last year and James Stewart who probably deserves another shot at AFL level. Jake Stringer is probably the main man however, the leading goal scorer from last year needing support from the underperforming Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia, who haven't had their usual spark. Melbourne's defenders match up well on the Essendon forwards, so look forward to a tight tussle between the groups, especially between Oscar McDonald and Stewart, and Neville Jetta against Fantasia.
Midfield/rucks battle
So far this year these two teams have been winning clearances in their games, but that's about it. Both teams have been spanked in contested possessions around the ground, and their delivery inside 50 has been lower than average. The two teams have good names on paper, Essendon having the likes of Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett as part of their midfield rotation whilst Melbourne have Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney and Nathan Jones but neither seem to be getting the results so far on the inside of the stoppage. In terms of outside run, Essendon will be looking to the likes of Andrew McGrath and Kobe Mutch to provide a lot of that, an inexperienced duo in terms of games played, whilst Kade Kolodjashnij and Corey Wagner seem to be the two that may do that for Melbourne this week. The rucks is probably going to be as one sided as ever, Max Gawn has a history of dominance against the Dons, and Tom Bellchambers generally struggles against the top echelon of ruckmen, but he needs to have a good game here.
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne's forward line has fared pretty badly in the first two games, kicking a goal only 12.7% of the time it entered their forward third of the ground. Essendon has been below average in this area, conceding a goal 24.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Melbourne's key talls have all got a height advantage over their likely match ups, Brayden Preuss having 13 cm's on Michael Hurley, Sam Weideman having 2cm on Aaron Francis and Tom McDonald 1 cm over Patrick Ambrose, which will make them more likely to bring the ball to ground. Jordan Ridley is likely to play on former Don Jake Melksham, and this is very important as Melksham is probably the Dee's best forward over the past couple of years, whilst Adam Saad could be matched up on first gamer Toby Bedford, a slippery small forward.
X-Factor Player
Jay Lockhart 3 weeks ago was training with Casey. Now he's playing the top level for Melbourne after a couple of excellent years in the VFL, and is one to watch for this game
Key stat
Melbourne: Clearances. The Dees boast a strong midfield on paper, they should get the job done against Essendon.
Essendon: Inside 50's. They need to smash the Dees in this regard, as Melbourne's defence has shown to be brittle so far this season.
Tip
Cripple fight! Dons by 15
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