Prediction Round 4: Changes Vs GWS + pre-match discussion

[arsesmart]

Henry has played half as many games as Pickett at this stage. BTW people may be inflating Pickett's contribution slightly, as his form has been patchy. He only got 8 disposals last night, although he does play like a whirling dervish which goes well early. Also Pickett's in a side that is motoring along, so he can cameo plenty and it's just icing.

Essentially they're very different players (as is SPS...although what is the common link? hmmm...we'll leave that alone).

It's perfectly fine and expected for Henry to be finding his feet after 21 games of footy. It'd be equally ridiculous to be writing him off at this stage too. Particularly given the reports from within the club on how hard he works and his great attitude.

 

[Taylor]

Yeah the deficit resulted in us getting Chapman who's looking like he's about our best young talent atm, so it's hard to get too upset about that outcome.

A bunch of late picks is not the cost people judge him on though - they critique him as if he cost us pick 9. Do you think he'd cop so much criticism if he'd been picked in the 40s or 50s?

Would it change people's perspective on the deficit if Chapman was going to be picked with our first anyway?

 

[Vintage]

The silver lining in moving back in the following draft is that we still got Chapman at our first pick. And I’m not sure but I think McDonald would still have been gone anyway?

McDonald was pick 4, we had 14.

realistically we missed the opportunity to pick up tanner bruhn and Tom Powell.

i think we did ok. I also reckon we would have picked Chapman if we had pick 12 rather than 14.

 

[theGav56]

We moved back 2 places and picked Heath Chapman instead of Tanner Bruhn

OR instead of Heath Chapman.

 

[Square Peg]

Would it change people's perspective on the deficit if Chapman was going to be picked with our first anyway?

You're joking, at that stage 12 months out from his draft he would have been one amongst dozens we had an eye on, no way had we decided who our first pick was.

 

[Taylor]

You're joking, at that stage 12 months out from his draft he would have been one amongst dozens we had an eye on, no way had we decided who our first pick was.

That wasn't what I was saying. I was asking if it changed people's perspective on the deficit if we would have taken Heath Chapman with our first anyway.

Whether that draft pick was #14, #13, #12, #11 or #10 - if we picked the same player with it - does it matter?

 

[theGav56]

Square Peg is quite right. It is not the same as when we downgraded in the trade for McCarthy knowing we would still be getting Logue.

Taking a deficit in a first rounder is pretty significant and could really hurt. It didn't on this occasion. If we had bid on Green we would not have run that risk.

 

[Square Peg]

Not according to SOS, Henry was bid on because they knew we would not pass on him (as he would only cost us picks in the 40s + the Brad Lloyd connection knowing we won't pass)

He was bid on so high because Carlton needed time on the clock to work out a trade with GC, they bid on Henry and then Green to receive this time.

They called him at 9, even if that bit of carlton "aren't we clever" revisionism is true, we didn't have to match. Hearing we might have been SOS's bunny doesn't change that.

 

[Square Peg]

Henry has played half as many games as Pickett at this stage. BTW people may be inflating Pickett's contribution slightly, as his form has been patchy. He only got 8 disposals last night, although he does play like a whirling dervish which goes well early. Also Pickett's in a side that is motoring along, so he can cameo plenty and it's just icing.

Essentially they're very different players (as is SPS...although what is the common link? hmmm...we'll leave that alone).

It's perfectly fine and expected for Henry to be finding his feet after 21 games of footy. It'd be equally ridiculous to be writing him off at this stage too. Particularly given the reports from within the club on how hard he works and his great attitude.

Totally agree, I have said multiple times if he simplifies his approach and starts doing the basics better, he has the talent to be a good player. But at present he's not projecting as a first round draft pick which all the proponents of 'we didn't overpay' keep on telling me he was.

 

[CapitalA]

Henry has the same trajectory as SPS.

He also has the same trajectory as Shai Bolton.

 

[ubiquitous226]

Square Peg is quite right. It is not the same as when we downgraded in the trade for McCarthy knowing we would still be getting Logue.

Taking a deficit in a first rounder is pretty significant and could really hurt. It didn't on this occasion. If we had bid on Green we would not have run that risk.

It gets quite boring going over and over these situations, but this is really what it boils down to - we had the chance to control this scenario that we didn't take which is the lesson I hope the club took.

Henry has talent but has yet to deliver on it in 20 odd games, and that's what I measure him against, I don't care as much about what pick he was taken at or what he's paid (within reason).
Glad to hear he's working hard, and I hope it translates onto the field, he still has time but needs to continue to develop.
With the loss of Cerra and the pending retirement of Mundy, we really need some good ball users, so I think that also adds an element of increasing the priority of giving him opportunities from a team perspective.

 

[Purpletown]

Henry has the same trajectory as SPS.

That's a bit sad.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Pickett had experienced senior football before being drafted.
He played 2 league games and kicked 6 in the reserves.
Henry had never played senior football and had a knee injury.
Also as others have said our expectations are higher on Henry because we need him
Melbourne don’t rely on kosi so are happy with 10d 1 goal 6 tackles
We need a 20 pos 3 goal/assist 4 tackles Henry
I’m happy how it all went down and have great hope for Henry

 

[Bring back Drum]

I wish Hamling was in the side to take on Hogan, I don’t want that campaigner getting near it.

 

[Lach72]

Would love to change that pick around

sure. Explain how

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I’m fascinated to see what kind of reception Hogan is going to get from the crowd.

 

[s_wd6]

I’m fascinated to see what kind of reception Hogan is going to get from the crowd.

You know how you can tell when gaff has the ball even with your eyes closed. Yeah that

 

[Wray27]

sure. Explain how

Ffs so many serious people on here. It was a fantasy hence the hug smiley face. You can’t obviously!
Pickett v Henry. I know which one I want.

 

[Wray27]

Ok, I just feel this board needs the occasional reminder that Henry was a free hit and didn't actually cost us pick 9 - a pick we never owned. I honestly think a lot of people on here forget that.

It's almost become our own self-flagellating version of the 'Freo traded the Matthew Lloyd pick' trope that opposition supporters misrepresented for so long.

It was more as a comparison of 2 players drafted at the same time.
I know which one I want!

 

[SupermanCapes]

Henry has played half as many games as Pickett at this stage. BTW people may be inflating Pickett's contribution slightly, as his form has been patchy. He only got 8 disposals last night, although he does play like a whirling dervish which goes well early. Also Pickett's in a side that is motoring along, so he can cameo plenty and it's just icing.

Essentially they're very different players (as is SPS...although what is the common link? hmmm...we'll leave that alone).

It's perfectly fine and expected for Henry to be finding his feet after 21 games of footy. It'd be equally ridiculous to be writing him off at this stage too. Particularly given the reports from within the club on how hard he works and his great attitude.

Nah I reckon we can acknowledge the elephant in this room head-on - we're all adults here. Surely the board can do better than comparing players who play different positions on the basis that they're indigenous?

Pickett is a small forward who rolls through the midfield - if we need a Freo comparison then it's much closer to the role that Switta plays (and Shoota during the derby for that matter). I'd guess that we get more out of Switta than Melbourne do out of Pickett, particularly given the difference in their draft positions.

Henry is a young prospective winger, who has 10cm on Pickett but weighs the same. He's probably better compared to Dylan Stephens from his draft (if we're sticking to the same draft as the comparison metric) who has definitely shown glimpses but has also been dropped occasionally. I'd hazard a guess that Henry is tracking pretty similarly to Stephens.

I honestly don't know what position SPS is meant to play, it's possible that he is meant to play on the wing at West Coast but who knows. Either way there are tonnes of 180cm-ish midfielders who are picked up in the first round that get rotated through the backline, inside mid and outside mid.

Point being I don't think anyone is doing this deliberately, and I'm not throwing around the R word, but in my view it's lazy and we can do better.

 

[theGav56]

We have had a lot of draft picks develop rapidly. It creates an expectation of that being the norm. Henry is a prospect worth investing development time into, but perhaps not time at the highest level just yet.

 

[arsesmart]

Nah I reckon we can acknowledge the elephant in this room head-on - we're all adults here. Surely the board can do better than comparing players who play different positions on the basis that they're indigenous?

Pickett is a small forward who rolls through the midfield - if we need a Freo comparison then it's much closer to the role that Switta plays (and Shoota during the derby for that matter). I'd guess that we get more out of Switta than Melbourne do out of Pickett, particularly given the difference in their draft positions.

Henry is a young prospective winger, who has 10cm on Pickett but weighs the same. He's probably better compared to Dylan Stephens from his draft (if we're sticking to the same draft as the comparison metric) who has definitely shown glimpses but has also been dropped occasionally. I'd hazard a guess that Henry is tracking pretty similarly to Stephens.

I honestly don't know what position SPS is meant to play, it's possible that he is meant to play on the wing at West Coast but who knows. Either way there are tonnes of 180cm-ish midfielders who are picked up in the first round that get rotated through the backline, inside mid and outside mid.

Point being I don't think anyone is doing this deliberately, and I'm not throwing around the R word, but in my view it's lazy and we can do better.

Yes, suffice to say the comparisons are fairly shallow ones.

SPS was largely viewed as an inside mid when drafted, who offered a lot of flexibility as he also has a bit of polish so had outside elements if needed. That perceived flexibility may have been to his detriment... maybe... as he was thrown around a bit.

Any which way, SPS had played almost 3 full seasons in his first 3 years, so tracking massively different to Henry there.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Nah I reckon we can acknowledge the elephant in this room head-on - we're all adults here. Surely the board can do better than comparing players who play different positions on the basis that they're indigenous?

Pickett is a small forward who rolls through the midfield - if we need a Freo comparison then it's much closer to the role that Switta plays (and Shoota during the derby for that matter). I'd guess that we get more out of Switta than Melbourne do out of Pickett, particularly given the difference in their draft positions.

Henry is a young prospective winger, who has 10cm on Pickett but weighs the same. He's probably better compared to Dylan Stephens from his draft (if we're sticking to the same draft as the comparison metric) who has definitely shown glimpses but has also been dropped occasionally. I'd hazard a guess that Henry is tracking pretty similarly to Stephens.

I honestly don't know what position SPS is meant to play, it's possible that he is meant to play on the wing at West Coast but who knows. Either way there are tonnes of 180cm-ish midfielders who are picked up in the first round that get rotated through the backline, inside mid and outside mid.

Point being I don't think anyone is doing this deliberately, and I'm not throwing around the R word, but in my view it's lazy and we can do better.

Their compared because they’re both small highly skilled players taken at the same time in the draft to play fwd of centre.
That’s pretty comparable !
if you see things a different way that’s your prerogative but please don’t cast aspersions on others.

 

[Dockeroo]

See there you go again judging him as if he actually cost us pick 9.

We didn't have to think pick 9 was fair value, we just had to think those crappy pick 50s or whatever it actually cost us were fair value.

It’s not true that he just cost us two picks in the 50s.
We had to trade our out 2020 second round pick for one of those picks in the 50s to be able to match the bid.
So while he didn’t cost us pick 9, it’s also incorrect to say he “only” cost pick 50 and 52 or whatever it was.
If Henry wasn’t in that 2019 draft we would have retained a pick around 30 in that draft, which would have given us a look at the likes of Chad Warmer, Trent rivers, Harrison Jones and a few others.
Those are they types you should be comparing Henry’s output to.
I do agree that (luckily) the slide back from 11 to 14 in the 2020 draft hasn’t cost us much as we still got Chapman.

 

[Dockernut]

Meek unlucky in my book. He was very good against Thicc Fat last week.