Preview Round 4: Essendon vs Adelaide, Docklands, Sunday 10/04/2022 @ 1:10 PM

Will we get our first win of the year?

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eth-dog

eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Last Week

Essendon: Fought hard against the reigning premiers in Melbourne, but skill errors were costly for the Dons, eventually going down by 28 points after a see-sawing battle. Dylan Shiel was at his best with 25 disposals and 6 clearances, whilst Andrew McGrath shut down the red hot Christian Petracca. Peter Wright continued his good early season form, kicking 4 goals on Steven May

Adelaide: What a game in the first ever Friday Night Showdown. Port Adelaide always held them at arms length it seemed, but Adelaide kicked the last 4 goals including one after the siren by prized recruit Jordan Dawson. Rory Laird collected 31 disposals for the Crows whilst young forwards Elliott Himmelberg and Lachlan Gollant kicked 4 goals apiece.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 4-1 Adelaide


Form Guide

Essendon: 0W 3L
Adelaide: 1W 2L


Possible sides

Essendon vs Adelaide

FB: Luke Brown - Jordan Butts - Billy Frampton
FF: Archie Perkins - Peter Wright - Andrew Phillips
HB: Brodie Smith - Tom Doedee - Mitchell Hinge
HF: Matthew Guelfi - Jake Stringer - Tex Wanganeen
MF: Lachlan Sholl - Rory Laird - Jordan Dawson
MF: Sam Durham - Andrew McGrath - Nic Martin
HF: Ned McHenry - Taylor Walker - James Rowe
HB: Jordan Ridley - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Nick Hind
FF: Josh Rachele - Elliott Himmelberg - Lachlan Gollant
FB: Jake Kelly - James Stewart - Jayden Laverde
OB: Reilly O'Brien - Ben Keays - Harry Schoenberg
OB: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Jye Caldwell
IC: Lachlan Murphy - Matthew Crouch - Brayden Cook - Will Hamill
IC: Dyson Heppell - Tom Cutler - Will Snelling - Dylan Shiel
MS: Chayce Jones
MS: Braydon Ham

Essendon in: Snelling, Zerk-Thatcher; Out: Mason Redman (omitted), Devon Smith (unused sub)
Adelaide in: Walker, Hamill; Out: Darcy Fogarty (omitted), Luke Pedlar (unused sub)


Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

So far this year, Essendon have been the 12th most efficient forward line in the AFL, kicking a goal 21.68% of the time it enters their forward 50, well below the league average of 23.57%. Adelaide's defence is the worst in the league so far at stopping a shot on goal, but 12th in conceding a goal at 24.84%. Peter Wright on Jordan Butts will be an interesting match up, Wright in arguably career best form with 9 goals in 3 games, whilst we might see acting captain Tom Doedee take on Jake Stringer, which should wet the appetite of everyone, Stringer being capable of some amazing things and Doedee being one of the premier intercept players in the AFL, whilst Luke Brown will probably try to curb the influence of young Tex Wanganeen.


Midfield/rucks battle

In the middle, Essendon have struggled on the inside, being 17th for both clearance and contested possession difference whilst Adelaide are currently 7th and 8th in those particular areas. However Essendon have come up against arguably the two best midfields in the game so far, and it looks like Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel, Andrew McGrath and Jye Caldwell have built some synergy on the inside. Adelaide's main men in Rory Laird and Ben Keays have been fantastic on the inside, helping the Crows to a strong position in those particular statistics, but lack a bit of hurt factor outside of the pair on the inside. On the outside, Essendon have been hit by injuries but Sam Durham and Nic Martin have impressed whilst star recruit Jordan Dawson has been very effective on a wing, with Lachlan Sholl and Brayden Cook struggling a bit so far. Rucks wise, Essendon employed the two ruck strategy to good effect against Max Gawn with Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips, with Reilly O'Brien not the strongest tap ruck in the AFL but strong around the ground, rotating the pair should be effective again.


Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Adelaide's forward line has been great so far this season, kicking a goal 24.65% of the time it enters forward 50, which is currently 8th in the AFL. Essendon's defence has been very leaky, conceding a goal 27.22% of the time, only ahead of Port Adelaide in this particular statistic after 3 rounds. A restructure of Essendon's defence might help this issue, with Brandon Zerk-Thatcher potentially coming in to play on Elliott Himmelberg, who is coming off a fantastic four goal effort. Jayden Laverde will probably take Lachlan Gollant, who has kicked 5 goals in 2 games this year whilst Jake Kelly will probably take young gun Josh Rachele against his former club.


X-Factor Player

Mitchell Hinge has been electric so far off half back for the Crows, he's only averaging 15 touches a game but his ball use has made him very effective going forward with the Crows


Key stat

Essendon: Goals/inside 50. Last year they were very effective in this area, this year the struggles have been there. Need to get on top of Adelaide here.

Adelaide: Clearances. Win this area and you can expose a fragile Essendon defence.


Tip

It's a tough one to pick given their respective forms, but I'm going with Essendon by 19
 
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Will watch the VFL game to see who puts their hand up.
 
Out: Redman, Ham, Stewart

Ins dependant on who plays well in the VFL I guess, but I think ideally Hobbs, Zerk and Snelling come in.

I probably wouldn’t drop Draper and think he’ll get over his form slump, but there’s nothing wrong with dropping him to find form in the VFL and being in Bryan for a couple weeks. He’s a pretty competitive guy and I’m sure he’d rise to the challenge.

Really don’t know what we do with Heppell. Can’t drop the captain, GWS did that with Coniglio and it was a disaster. Should’ve done the captaincy handover this year in hindsight.
 
Zerk on Himmelberg
Stewart on Fogarty
Laverde on Gollant
Kelly on Rachele
Hind on Rowe
Ridley on McHenry

In a world where we actually play 2 key defenders and Laverde on the most dangerous medium
 
Crows are hot and we are not! Adelaide pulled off an after the siren win against Port in their Derby with Himmelberg and Dawson providing solid targets up forward, whilst ruckman Riley O’Brien was BOG in a dominant display with 45 hitouts. Laird and Crouch were also solid contributors for the Crows.
The Bombers haven’t fired a shot in their 0 - 3 start to the year which is their worst start to a season for 55 years - they should be desperate to win this and get the season back on track. Wright has been a shining light up forward, whilst Parish, Shiel and Caldwell have all battled valiantly so far this year. But there needs to be an overall lift from the Bomber players all over the ground - and hopefully some tough decisions made at the selection table on skipper Heppell whom father time may have caught up with , and ruckman Sam Draper who seems to have been drinking his own bathwater….

OUT: Ham, Heppell, Draper
IN: Hobbs, Voss, Bryan

Team;-

Ridley Stewart Kelly
Redman Lav Hind
Durham Shiel Martin
Perkins *Voss Caldwell
Stringer 2MP Guelfi

Phillips Parish McGrath

Bench: Cutler Hobbs Wanga Bryan
SUB: Heppell

*Voss I've named at CHF, but Baldwin and/or Waterman could be options also depending on how they go in the VFL today


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Draper not good enough atm, hasn't come on like English etc.

In: Bryan, Snelling
Out: Draper, Guelfi

Redman, Heppell, Ham last chance though Ham was much better. Guelfi unfortunately doesn't impact the game.

With Jones, Hobbs, Tippa building there will be pressure for spots.

Would drop Heppell in a heartbeat but being captain probably won't happen unless we lie and list him as managed.
 
Way too overreactive on Draper.
 
Duckworth said:
Do you think he will be dropped?
Click to expand...
There is a chance. If Bryan plays well enough today then maybe the give Sam a few weeks in the VFL to find some footy and give Bryan a run alongside Flipper and see what he has. Sam has been plain all year.
 
ant555 said:
There is a chance. If Bryan plays well enough today then maybe the give Sam a few weeks in the VFL to find some footy and give Bryan a run alongside Flipper and see what he has. Sam has been plain all year.
Click to expand...

Draper is out of form, but wasn’t as bad in the first two rounds. He is a young ruck and consistency will take time.
I think vs Melb he was sharing the ruck duties which he is probably less familiar with. Also up against the premier ruckmen. I’d be inclined to back him in a bit longer.
Bryan’s ruck form was nothing special vs Geelong.
 
Duckworth said:
Draper is out of form, but wasn’t as bad in the first two rounds. He is a young ruck and consistency will take time.
I think vs Melb he was sharing the ruck duties which he is probably less familiar with. Also up against the premier ruckmen. I’d be inclined to back him in a bit longer.
Bryan’s ruck form was nothing special vs Geelong.
Click to expand...
He was horrible against Brisbane
 
In: Bryan, Hobbs
Out: Draper, Heppell/Redman/Ham

Bryan and Hobbs looking too good in the 2s to not get a game next week.
 
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