eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Had a much needed return to form against Melbourne, winning by 18 points in the end in an end to end game where scoring was free flowing. David Zaharakis responded to criticism over his first two weeks, collecting 31 touches, half of them contested, whilst Jake Stringer, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Shaun McKernan kicked 4 goals apiece.
Brisbane:
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 3-2 Brisbane
Form Guide
Essendon: 1W 2L
Brisbane: 2W 0L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.72
Brisbane: $2.04
Line: 3.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Brisbane
B: Francis - Hooker - Saad
F: McStay - McInerney - Cameron
HB: McKenna - Hurley- Ridley
HF: McCarthy - Hipwood - Rayner
C: McGrath - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Zorko - Neale - McCluggage
HF: Fantasia - Stewart - D Smith
HB: Witherden - Walker - Bailey
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - McKernan- Stringer
B: Rich - Andrews - Gardiner
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Martin - Berry - Lyons
I: Baguley - Zaharakis - Parish - Guelfi
I: Bastinac - Robinson - Hodge - Mathieson
Essendon in: Stewart, Hooker, Langford; Out: Clarke (poor game), Ambrose (unlucky), Mutch (Hammy)
Brisbane: no change
Brisbane defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line started back on the road to redemption last week, kicking a goal 37.7% of the time it entered forward 50 last week, lifting their average for the season by 8% to 21.3%. Brisbane's defence has conceded a goal 23.1% of the time it enters their back 50, but their big strength is the ability to restrict inside 50's. Shaun McKernan face probably the hardest key defender in the league for him to match up on in Harris Andrews, who is bigger, just as strong and just as athletic as Smack, so competing hard is the key. James Stewart may come back due to injury and will most likely cop attention from Josh Walker. The smalls of Essendon will be key though, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Orazio Fantasia and Mark Baguley were all very important in the win against Melbourne, and they may well have a pace advantage.
Midfield/rucks battle
Last year these two teams were in the top 5 for clearance differential, so it's pretty clear that it's an important stat to win for both teams. Brisbane have started well in this area so far, and with players like Dayne Zorko, Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry, Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage in your midfield you can understand why that is the case. Flipside for Essendon is that they won it the first two rounds whilst losing and in round 3 they tied it yet got the chocolates, but with a midfield stacked with talent such as Zach Merrett, Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell and Devon Smith they should be getting results in there. Kyle Langford may get a reprieve in the middle this week, and could present a fascinating opportunity to play a more outside role to use his fantastic skills, an area that Brisbane aren't exactly well equipped in the middle. Rucks wise, Stefan Martin is arguably the most underrated ruck in the league, his ability around the ground is as good as Brodie Grundy, whilst all of Tom Bellchambers' injuries may be coming home to roost for the big ruck.
Brisbane forward line vs Essendon defence
Brisbane's forward line for the first few games has kicked a goal 25.4% of the time it's entered inside 50 so far, but they've had a lot of repeat entries for that. Essendon's defence has been leaky for the first 3 games, conceding a goal 26.25% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Cale Hooker returning should alleviate some of that, the key tall likely to take mountain man Oscar McInerney whilst Cale Hooker will try to curb the Joe Daniher clone in Eric Hipwood, leaving Aaron Francis to mind Daniel McStay. Brisbane's main threat so far this year however has been small forward Charlie Cameron, who will be manned by Adam Saad, who has been very good at shutting opposing small forwards down so far this season.
X-Factor Player
Lincoln McCarthy has flown under the radar a little bit but the former cat has 6 goals in his first two games, Conor McKenna has a big job on the little Lion, who could prove to be the difference.
Key stat
Essendon: Inside 50's. The key to Brisbane so far has been strangling the amount of inside 50's conceded. Need to get the ball in there.
Brisbane: Clearances. They don't win when they lose the clearances.
Tip
No great confidence. Dons by 22
Essendon: Had a much needed return to form against Melbourne, winning by 18 points in the end in an end to end game where scoring was free flowing. David Zaharakis responded to criticism over his first two weeks, collecting 31 touches, half of them contested, whilst Jake Stringer, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Shaun McKernan kicked 4 goals apiece.
Brisbane:
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 3-2 Brisbane
Form Guide
Essendon: 1W 2L
Brisbane: 2W 0L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.72
Brisbane: $2.04
Line: 3.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Brisbane
B: Francis - Hooker - Saad
F: McStay - McInerney - Cameron
HB: McKenna - Hurley- Ridley
HF: McCarthy - Hipwood - Rayner
C: McGrath - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Zorko - Neale - McCluggage
HF: Fantasia - Stewart - D Smith
HB: Witherden - Walker - Bailey
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - McKernan- Stringer
B: Rich - Andrews - Gardiner
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Martin - Berry - Lyons
I: Baguley - Zaharakis - Parish - Guelfi
I: Bastinac - Robinson - Hodge - Mathieson
Essendon in: Stewart, Hooker, Langford; Out: Clarke (poor game), Ambrose (unlucky), Mutch (Hammy)
Brisbane: no change
Brisbane defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line started back on the road to redemption last week, kicking a goal 37.7% of the time it entered forward 50 last week, lifting their average for the season by 8% to 21.3%. Brisbane's defence has conceded a goal 23.1% of the time it enters their back 50, but their big strength is the ability to restrict inside 50's. Shaun McKernan face probably the hardest key defender in the league for him to match up on in Harris Andrews, who is bigger, just as strong and just as athletic as Smack, so competing hard is the key. James Stewart may come back due to injury and will most likely cop attention from Josh Walker. The smalls of Essendon will be key though, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Orazio Fantasia and Mark Baguley were all very important in the win against Melbourne, and they may well have a pace advantage.
Midfield/rucks battle
Last year these two teams were in the top 5 for clearance differential, so it's pretty clear that it's an important stat to win for both teams. Brisbane have started well in this area so far, and with players like Dayne Zorko, Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry, Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage in your midfield you can understand why that is the case. Flipside for Essendon is that they won it the first two rounds whilst losing and in round 3 they tied it yet got the chocolates, but with a midfield stacked with talent such as Zach Merrett, Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell and Devon Smith they should be getting results in there. Kyle Langford may get a reprieve in the middle this week, and could present a fascinating opportunity to play a more outside role to use his fantastic skills, an area that Brisbane aren't exactly well equipped in the middle. Rucks wise, Stefan Martin is arguably the most underrated ruck in the league, his ability around the ground is as good as Brodie Grundy, whilst all of Tom Bellchambers' injuries may be coming home to roost for the big ruck.
Brisbane forward line vs Essendon defence
Brisbane's forward line for the first few games has kicked a goal 25.4% of the time it's entered inside 50 so far, but they've had a lot of repeat entries for that. Essendon's defence has been leaky for the first 3 games, conceding a goal 26.25% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Cale Hooker returning should alleviate some of that, the key tall likely to take mountain man Oscar McInerney whilst Cale Hooker will try to curb the Joe Daniher clone in Eric Hipwood, leaving Aaron Francis to mind Daniel McStay. Brisbane's main threat so far this year however has been small forward Charlie Cameron, who will be manned by Adam Saad, who has been very good at shutting opposing small forwards down so far this season.
X-Factor Player
Lincoln McCarthy has flown under the radar a little bit but the former cat has 6 goals in his first two games, Conor McKenna has a big job on the little Lion, who could prove to be the difference.
Key stat
Essendon: Inside 50's. The key to Brisbane so far has been strangling the amount of inside 50's conceded. Need to get the ball in there.
Brisbane: Clearances. They don't win when they lose the clearances.
Tip
No great confidence. Dons by 22
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