Preview Round 4: Essendon vs Carlton, MCG, Saturday 27/06/2020 @ 7:40 PM (As it stands)

Winner winner?


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eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Observations

Essendon: Essendon missed their last game due to a case of COVID-19 in dashing defender Conor McKenna, which means Essendon could be without their entire first choice defence barring Aaron Francis.

Carlton: Carlton dominated in the first half, getting out to a 42 point lead at one point, and then held off a fast finishing Geelong, winning by 2 points. Patrick Cripps starred as usual, having 24 touches, 12 of them clearances, whilst several players including key forwardsLevi Casboult and Mitchell McGovern kicked 2 goals


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 3-2 Carlton


Form Guide

Essendon: 2W 0L
Carlton: 1W 2L


Sportsbet odds (unavailable)

Essendon:
Carlton:
Line: .5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Essendon vs Carlton

B: Aaron Francis - Patrick Ambrose - Andrew McGrath
F: Levi Casboult - Mitchell McGovern - Eddie Betts
HB: Tom Cutler - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Martin Gleeson
HF: Michael Gibbons - Harry McKay - Jack Martin
C: Kyle Langford - Devon Smith - Will Snelling
C: Marc Murphy - Patrick Cripps - David Cuningham
HF: Orazio Fantasia - James Stewart - Jayden Laverde
HB: Kade Simpson - Jacob Weitering - Tom Williamson
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jacob Townsend
B: Lachie Plowman - Liam Jones - Sam Docherty
R: Tom Bellchambers - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
R: Marc Pittonet - Ed Curnow - Sam Walsh
I: David Zaharakis - Brayden Ham - Dylan Clarke - Mitchell Hibberd
I: Jack Silvagni - Jack Newnes - Will Setterfield - Sam Petrevski-Seton

Essendon in (from Melbourne selection): Patrick Ambrose, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Martin Gleeson, Orazio Fantasia, James Stewart, Jayden Laverde, Dylan Clarke, Mitchell Hibberd; Out: Cale Hooker, Conor McKenna, Zachary Merrett, Jordan Ridley, Michael Hurley, Jake Stringer, Mason Redman, Adam Saad (COVID isolation)
Carlton in: N/A; Out: N/A


Carlton defence vs Essendon forward line

First two rounds Essendon averaged 24.1% in terms of goals/inside 50, much improved from last year. Carlton's defence has been very leaky in the early stages of this season, conceding a goal 26.8% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Shaun McKernan will be important, Liam Jones his likely match-up whilst the returning James Stewart will most likely get attention from the in form Jacob Weitering. Orazio Fantasia will likely get attention from Tom Williamson as the small forward returns to the side as well, the small forward enjoying a good record against Carlton, averaging a tad over 2 goals/game against Essendon's arch-rival. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti also likely to be taken by Sam Petrevski-Seton, who has moved into defence with good effect this season.


Midfield/rucks battle

Carlton haven't been great in the clearances so far this season, losing them by 2 on average this season, whilst Essendon are currently 6th on average, even if it's only after two games. The two clubs are mid table in terms of contested possessions, but both in the positive so far this season. Carlton's key is Patrick Cripps, who would be keen to have a good game after getting dominated by Dylan Clarke last year in the same fixture, but would also be looking to Will Setterfield, Sam Walsh, and Michael Gibbons for support there, whilst Ed Curnow is likely to tag Dylan Shiel for the Dons, who is likely to be supported by Darcy Parish, Devon Smith and Mitchell Hibberd, who may make his Essendon debut, on the inside. Outside, Marc Murphy will be trying to deliver quality inside 50, alongside David Cuningham and Jack Newnes whilst Essendon will be hoping Kyle Langford, Will Snelling and David Zaharakis will be able to impact inside 50. Rucks wise, Marc Pittonet and Tom Bellchambers are different types of rucks, Pittonet very crash and bash compared to Bellchambers' craft at a stoppage, who enjoys a good record against the Blues.


Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence

Carlton has shown a lot of improvement in the early rounds this season, kicking a goal 22.2% of the time it enters their 50. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, even considering they have lost most of their first choice defence. Patrick Ambrose returns after a top 6 finish in the best and fairest last year against Mitchell McGovern whilst 3rd gamer Brandon Zerk-Thatcher is likely to take contested marking beast Levi Casboult. Andrew McGrath probably shifts into defence for the next couple of weeks and will renew his acquaintance with Eddie Betts if he does, whilst Martin Gleeson will probably go to Jack Martin. It'll be battle of the young guns if Aaron Francis lines up against Harry McKay, both of whom have impressive marking prowess.


X-Factor Player

Brayden Ham is really inexperienced, but has great running power and versatility, having played roles all over the ground for Essendon, he could line up off half back or a wing this week for the Dons


Key stat

Essendon: Clearances. If Clarke successfully tags Cripps again they'll go a long way to winning this battle

Carlton: Defensive conversion. Carlton has good names in their defence, but it hasn't really translated to locking teams down, really important it starts happening here.


Tip

We should win this, but you never know. Bombers by 17
 

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Ambrosia

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2010
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eth-dog Am hopeful Merrett and Stringer will be available. J.Ralph has only mentioned Ridley, Hurley, Hooker, Redman, Saad, Guelfi, Gleeson and of course McKenna. No Gleeson sucks
 

F_therest

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Oct 3, 2013
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So will Essendon still play Melbourne first to finish that round mid-week? Or is the plan to skip that game and play Carlton next?
 

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eth-dog

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So will Essendon still play Melbourne first to finish that round mid-week? Or is the plan to skip that game and play Carlton next?
Skip it. We'll play them later in the season.
On fox footy J.Ralph listed everyone in his Friday weights group pretty much said the AFL has ruled them out.
He said the first choice backline, I didn't hear Gleeson's name at all.
 

Ambrosia

Brownlow Medallist
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So will Essendon still play Melbourne first to finish that round mid-week? Or is the plan to skip that game and play Carlton next?
You’d think it’d be unlikely that they manage to decide who is available for Essendon in time to have a game on Monday or Tuesday
 

Duckworth

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Cale Hooker --> BZT
Conor McKenna --> Gleeson
Zachary Merrett --> Hibberd
Jordan Ridley --> Laverde
Michael Hurley --> Ambrose
Jake Stringer --> J. Stewart
Mason Redman --> D. Clarke
Adam Saad --> Fantasia

With some shuffling of Mids etc, I think eth-dog has the right mix of ins. Phillips & Ham also in the mix.
 

JT_the_Man

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Cale Hooker --> BZT
Conor McKenna --> Gleeson
Zachary Merrett --> Hibberd
Jordan Ridley --> Laverde
Michael Hurley --> Ambrose
Jake Stringer --> J. Stewart
Mason Redman --> D. Clarke
Adam Saad --> Fantasia

With some shuffling of Mids etc, I think eth-dog has the right mix of ins. Phillips & Ham also in the mix.
Ham is already in the side.
 

eth-dog

Premium Platinum
Jan 11, 2007
91,261
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Melbourne
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Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Cale Hooker --> BZT
Conor McKenna --> Gleeson
Zachary Merrett --> Hibberd
Jordan Ridley --> Laverde
Michael Hurley --> Ambrose
Jake Stringer --> J. Stewart
Mason Redman --> D. Clarke
Adam Saad --> Fantasia

With some shuffling of Mids etc, I think eth-dog has the right mix of ins. Phillips & Ham also in the mix.
I'd put Cahill around the mark too.
 

F_therest

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 3, 2013
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Ambrose, Gleeson, Ham, Clarke and Hibberd haven't played since Feb/March though
Oh yeah for sure its bad for essendon...unfortunate (or really poor by mckenna if he did breach protocol).

Carlton would have to be favourites now and from my pov it would be a disaster of we lost having being gifted a great opportunity.
 

Ambrosia

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2010
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Oh yeah for sure its bad for essendon...unfortunate (or really poor by mckenna if he did breach protocol).

Carlton would have to be favourites now and from my pov it would be a disaster of we lost having being gifted a great opportunity.
If we don’t lose Merrett and Stringer I’d still give Essendon a reasonable chance of winning. No Merrett and McGrath to defence and our midfield depth advantage is gone.
 

BrunoV

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May 5, 2009
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Positives. Hurley and Hooker hardly doing anything these days unless the ball goes straight to them.

Guelfi...

Just need to find another tall defender. James Stewart..."COME ON DOWN!"
 

eth-dog

Premium Platinum
Jan 11, 2007
91,261
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Melbourne
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Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Oh yeah for sure its bad for essendon...unfortunate (or really poor by mckenna if he did breach protocol).

Carlton would have to be favourites now and from my pov it would be a disaster of we lost having being gifted a great opportunity.
You'd be favourites for sure, but if there's anyone where we can somewhat afford to lose it (well in terms of least worst) it would be our defence. We still have quite a few AFL standard defenders coming in, such as Gleeson, Ambrose and (on early signs) Zerk-Thatcher have performed this role well. Plus McGrath and Cutler have previously played there too.
 
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