Prediction Round 5, 2023: Changes vs Geelong (Gather Round)

[Rowan18]

We definitely have developmental issues.

The development pathways that deliver "draftable kids" are not so erratic as to deliver the woeful strike rate we have had since 2011 without some measure of fault laying at WC door.

I don't agree with that. I can't think of many obvious talents from 1st/2nd round that didn't come on (maybe that Lamb guy from 2014 but he was speculative). We've had a bunch retire due to unfortunate circumstances (eg venables) and some taken with low-ish picks that didn't have the talent (Partington, Mutimer). Can you give any examples of players with talent that didn't develop and were washed out?

EDIT: another thing to reflect on is how some players careers really flourished once Simmo came in. JK became one of the best in the league, Gov as well, Yeo became a midfielder. Sure, some of that may have been them hitting the right age to break out, but if the development was bad I would expect many would have regressed.

 

[FKASC]

I don't agree with that. I can't think of many obvious talents from 1st/2nd round that didn't come on (maybe that Lamb guy from 2014 but he was speculative). We've had a bunch retire due to unfortunate circumstances (eg venables) and some taken with low-ish picks that didn't have the talent (Partington, Mutimer). Can you give any examples of players with talent that didn't develop and were washed out?

EDIT: another thing to reflect on is how some players careers really flourished once Simmo came in. JK became one of the best in the league, Gov as well, Yeo became a midfielder. Sure, some of that may have been them hitting the right age to break out, but if the development was bad I would expect many would have regressed.

Partington wasn’t a low-ish pick and he had been widely considered one of the better midfielder options pre-draft - not sure he could be described as having no talent. Of course it’s impossible to know whether poor development led to players never making the grade, or whether they never had talent in the first place. But I wouldn’t group him in with Mutimer.

Plenty of other players who were highly rated pre-draft who haven’t really fulfilled their promise. Duggan, Rotham, Lamb, Parto, Cole, Brander, Petruccelle, Foley, BBW, Trew, Adamson.

 

[Rowan18]

Partington wasn’t a low-ish pick and he had been widely considered one of the better midfielder options pre-draft - not sure he could be described as having no talent. Of course it’s impossible to know whether poor development led to players never making the grade, or whether they never had talent in the first place. But I wouldn’t group him in with Mutimer.

Plenty of other players who were highly rated pre-draft who haven’t really fulfilled their promise. Duggan, Rotham, Lamb, Parto, Cole, Brander, Petruccelle, Foley, BBW, Trew, Adamson.

Duggan - yes, but that 2014 draft turned out to be pretty weak, so he looked better than he was relatively. Brander was definitely a bust - had talent but we couldn't get it out of him.

The others all had some knocks on their game, they weren't exactly first rounders.

 

[johnnyinternet]

We definitely have developmental issues.

The development pathways that deliver "draftable kids" are not so erratic as to deliver the woeful strike rate we have had since 2011 without some measure of fault laying at WC door.

What is mind blowing is the guy responsible for development since 2013 got promoted to GM of footy. The guy in charge of recruiting promoted to a combined List Manager/Recruiting Manager dual role. I would love to know where the accountability is for these blokes.

 

[johnnyinternet]

TBH he played as sub the week before and then played out of position at AFL level last week. He needs midfield minutes in the WAFL to develop. He would have learnt a lot about the physical and mental requirements last week as well as the exhaustion at AFL intensity having come on early as the sub with very limited rotations and then a really hard game against a top side.

I think he needs to be given proper opportunities at AFL level. He was meant to be swapping with Gaff who instead just chose to run out the game in the middle to pad his stats. These players, like the development and recruiting staff are in full blown self-protection mode.

 

[RookiePick]

A strike rate of basically zero after pick 30 is bad. If you want to apportion some of the blame to the recruitment team for picking vanilla plodders I'm totally down with that.

Wasn't Adelaide's captain a pick in the 50's folks were saying last night?

 

[FKASC]

Wasn't Adelaide's captain a pick in the 50's folks were saying last night?

Obviously had knocks on his game and bereft of talent.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Can't win really. We draft a 200 game Brownlow medalist with a rookie pick and he gets shat on harder than anyone.

 

[SloppyJoe]

A strike rate of basically zero after pick 30 is bad. If you want to apportion some of the blame to the recruitment team for picking vanilla plodders I'm totally down with that.

Wasn't Adelaide's captain a pick in the 50's folks were saying last night?

Yeah, pick 65 56, but he was picked by Sydney and then went home to the Crows for unders (unders then; even more so now). So not a great example if looking at it in totality.

I think the reality is these days it's incredibly hard to pick top end talent outside of the first 2 rounds.

 

[johnnyinternet]

A strike rate of basically zero after pick 30 is bad. If you want to apportion some of the blame to the recruitment team for picking vanilla plodders I'm totally down with that.

Wasn't Adelaide's captain a pick in the 50's folks were saying last night?

The hit rate in first and second round not much better:
Eagles draft -1/2 round:

2013 - Dom Sheed and Malcolm Karpany

2014 - Liam Dugan and Tom Lamb

2015 - Luke Parto and Tom Coke

2016 - Daniel Venables and Josh Rotham

2017 - Jarrod Brander, Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan, Jack Petrucelle and Brayden Ainsworth

2018 - Xavier Oneill, Luke Foley, Bailey Williams and Jarrod Cameron

2019 & 2020 - no one (Kelly trade)

2021 - Campbell Chesser, Brady Hough and Rhett Bazzo.

2022 - too early to make a comment

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

A strike rate of basically zero after pick 30 is bad. If you want to apportion some of the blame to the recruitment team for picking vanilla plodders I'm totally down with that.

Our reigning best and fairest was pick 43.

 

[RookiePick]

Our reigning best and fairest was pick 43.

Unlike you to be pedantic mate.

 

[johnnyinternet]

Our reigning best and fairest was pick

Cocky/arrogance to a level isn’t actually bad and can be healthy. Hewett has a bit of that more than fullblown Figjam.

Agreed, know him well and he absolutely backs himself in but follows that up with enormous work rate. He has been doing running and speech coaching for last few years, ran multiple times per week with a 1500m runner to improve his repeat sprints as well. His skills were a weakness so he worked incredibly hard at it to the point Simmo told him he’s in the top 5 kicks in the team. He’s determined to be the best he can be. Exactly what we need, now if we can get rid of the dead wood (Oneill, witho, Jamo, Pech, Clark etc) and draft kids, we can recover. Hopefully Nisbett will bow out soon so he won’t be able to continue protecting his hires who have flopped (Gavin Bell, Rohan O’Brien).

 

[Keys]

So those changes for round 5

Let’s talk about them shall we

 

[Cuzz09]

Can't win really. We draft a 200 game Brownlow medalist with a rookie pick and he gets shat on harder than anyone.

Don't understand the Priddis hate. Absolutely LOVED him. Played his heart out.

You'd love more like him

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[Cuzz09]

Don't mind the changes.

Hurn prob wants to go fishin'

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[mad_eagle]

So those changes for round 5

Let’s talk about them shall we

Currently just mentally preparing myself for player x to be missing from the airport run, followed by a tweet 25 minutes later from Paddy Sweeney or Rhino to tell us about a mysterious injury that has just manifested itself out of thin air.

 

[DanWCE]

Currently just mentally preparing myself for player x to be missing from the airport run, followed by a tweet 25 minutes later from Paddy Sweeney or Rhino to tell us about a mysterious injury that has just manifested itself out of thin air.

They're checking in now. Any idea which journos are camped out there? Do they even care enough about us this year to bother?

 

[Cuzz09]

What is a reasonable result on Sunday?

Do you think a similar result v Melb?

Stick with them for a half but outclassed and over run in 2nd half.

Would love to kick more than say 12 goals (3/qtr ave)

12 goals to 21 probs

edit* may be wet.... so let's downgrade that to... ummm.... 7 goals to 15

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[Schtinker]

Can see SPS, Noah Long and Luke Edwards being absolutely monstered by Koladashknee, Twooey and Guffree. Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

giving Gaff or Clark an absolute bath. Hard to see us not coming home with at least a 50 point loss.

 

[THE A5]

Can see SPS, Noah Long and Luke Edwards being absolutely monstered by Koladashknee, Twooey and Guffree. Isaac Smith giving Gaff or Clark an absolute bath. Hard to see us not coming home with at least a 50 point loss.

Kolodjashni is a key back and you forgot their best defender in stewert.

Esava is a beast of a lad but I think Allen could beat him with footy smarts

Waterman need to play a defensive role on stewart and him falling back and third manning our talls in contest of just plugging holes.

Darling depending which cersion shows up can defs beat him

 

[Tyberious Funk]

Hang on.... Geelong are 1 and 3, with a single win against a hapless Hawthorn.

This one is winnable.

 

[DanWCE]

How many free kicks to Blicavs this week after Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

47

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

's crying to the umps? Feels like every time we play the Cats he's been sooking it up in the media the week prior. Or maybe it's just a weekly thing for him

 

[dajesmac]

Simmo mentioned both Petch and Culley are playing this week in his presser. Just a lil pre-final team announcement tidbit.

 

[Eaglemaniac]

Spewing we dropped Hewitt. Especially after he was played at half fwd for 90% of the match. I want to see him played in the middle rotating forward on occasion. He won the only cba he attended and we got a goal from it.