eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: A stunning result on Good Friday against North Melbourne, where the chosen one rose from the dead,Jesus Christ I mean Joe Daniher returned after nearly a year out of football. And that's supposed to happen on Sunday anyway. The dons were dominant, the "big three" midfield trio of Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett collecting 107 disposals between them whilst not Joe Daniher Orazio Fantasia kicked 4 goals in the 58 point win.
Collingwood: Well Collingwood had a walk in the park against Brisbane, comfortably beating the Lions by 62 points. Superstar midfielder Adam Treloar had the ball 35 times whilst Key Forward Brodie Mihocek was very good with 4 goals in humid conditions, Jordan De Goey another feature with 3.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Collingwood
Form Guide
Essendon: 3W 2L
Collingwood: 3W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.56
Collingwood: $1.48
Line: 12.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Collingwood
B: Ambrose - Hooker - Saad
F: Mihocek - Cox - Elliott
HB: McKenna - Hurley- Ridley
HF: Thomas - De Goey - Stephenson
C: McGrath - Myers - Z Merrett
C: Phillips - Pendlebury - Sidebottom
HF: Fantasia - Brown - D Smith
HB: Crisp - Moore - Langdon
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher- Stringer
B: Maynard - Roughead - Howe
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Grundy - Adams - Treloar
I: Redman - Zaharakis - Parish - Guelfi
I: Appleby - Beams - Brown - Varcoe
Essendon in: Smith, Zaharakis; Out: Ham (unlucky), Baguley (omit)
Collingwood in: Appleby; Out: Aish (concussion)
Collingwood defence vs Essendon forward line
After a slow first fortnight, Essendon's inside 50 efficiency rating has improved a lot the last couple of weeks, increasing to 25.1% goals per inside 50. Collingwood's defence however has been stellar both up the ground and when it enters defensive 50, conceding a goal only 21.1% of the time it enters their defense. Joe Daniher had a successful return against North Melbourne, kicking two goals, but he'll come up against arguably the form centre half back of the comp in Darcy Moore, so a much sterner test awaits the lynchpin of Essendon's attack. Mitchell Brown has been very good working up and back the ground of recent weeks, collecting 45 or so touches and kicking 6 goals the last two weeks, will be interesting to see how he goes against Jordan Roughead. Essendon's mosquito fleet of Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti have been lively the past three games, Magpie fans will be hoping Brayden Maynard and Flynn Appleby will be able to shut them down.
Midfield/rucks battle
Let's get real, as even as they are at either end, this is truly where the match will be decided. You look at the names on Collingwood's groupings and you shudder as an opposition midfield coach, rightly so as well. However so far this season the Dons have been better than Collingwood on clearance differential, although Collingwood have been significantly better on the contested possession side of things in comparison. The match up between Adam Treloar and Dylan Shiel looks fascinating, Treloar has been stellar this year whilst Shiel is starting to look like the guy Essendon gave up two first round draft picks for, the two former Giants would be licking their lips at this. No less relevant will be the battle of the skippers, Dyson Heppell and Scott Pendlebury are remarkably similar players, but the pie skipper has had the wood on Heppell the past few years, and the last 5 games has reflected that, so Heppell will want to wrest back control for this. Rucks wise, Grundy beat Bellchambers in their head to heads twice, but the big T-Bell had his best game of the year in the game just gone and will be looking to back it up against the best in the comp.
Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence
Collingwood's forward line has been very efficient so far this year, kicking a goal 24.7% of the time it enter's the arc. Essendon's defense has been much better of recent weeks, lowering their goals/inside 50 mark to 22.2% at the defensive end. The match up I want to focus on is the one that is probably between Michael Hurley and Jordan De Goey. Not many defenders have the size and the agility to go with JDG, which is why he's so good, however Hurley does, as showcased by his beatdown of North skipper Jack Ziebell on Good Friday. Cale Hooker against Mason Cox is also important, Cox's main job will be to restrict Hooker's intercept marking, which is where many of Essendon's attacks ar launched from. And finally, our great nemesis Jamie Elliott plays again, does Adam Saad get the job? Given the other match ups inside 50 you'd have to think so, another extremely important match up.
X-Factor Player
Travis Varcoe seems to slip under the radar a bit for the Pies, he's quick, a good decision maker and does all the team things well. One of the most important players on Bucks' list.
Key stat
Essendon: Inside 50's. Collingwood concede the third fewest inside 50's a game in the league, need to increase that if they're to win.
Collingwood: Clearances. They have the best midfield in the league, use it to your advantae.
Tip
Dons by 7, Heppell to have the ANZAC Medal
Essendon: A stunning result on Good Friday against North Melbourne, where the chosen one rose from the dead,
Collingwood: Well Collingwood had a walk in the park against Brisbane, comfortably beating the Lions by 62 points. Superstar midfielder Adam Treloar had the ball 35 times whilst Key Forward Brodie Mihocek was very good with 4 goals in humid conditions, Jordan De Goey another feature with 3.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Collingwood
Form Guide
Essendon: 3W 2L
Collingwood: 3W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.56
Collingwood: $1.48
Line: 12.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Collingwood
B: Ambrose - Hooker - Saad
F: Mihocek - Cox - Elliott
HB: McKenna - Hurley- Ridley
HF: Thomas - De Goey - Stephenson
C: McGrath - Myers - Z Merrett
C: Phillips - Pendlebury - Sidebottom
HF: Fantasia - Brown - D Smith
HB: Crisp - Moore - Langdon
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher- Stringer
B: Maynard - Roughead - Howe
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Grundy - Adams - Treloar
I: Redman - Zaharakis - Parish - Guelfi
I: Appleby - Beams - Brown - Varcoe
Essendon in: Smith, Zaharakis; Out: Ham (unlucky), Baguley (omit)
Collingwood in: Appleby; Out: Aish (concussion)
Collingwood defence vs Essendon forward line
After a slow first fortnight, Essendon's inside 50 efficiency rating has improved a lot the last couple of weeks, increasing to 25.1% goals per inside 50. Collingwood's defence however has been stellar both up the ground and when it enters defensive 50, conceding a goal only 21.1% of the time it enters their defense. Joe Daniher had a successful return against North Melbourne, kicking two goals, but he'll come up against arguably the form centre half back of the comp in Darcy Moore, so a much sterner test awaits the lynchpin of Essendon's attack. Mitchell Brown has been very good working up and back the ground of recent weeks, collecting 45 or so touches and kicking 6 goals the last two weeks, will be interesting to see how he goes against Jordan Roughead. Essendon's mosquito fleet of Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti have been lively the past three games, Magpie fans will be hoping Brayden Maynard and Flynn Appleby will be able to shut them down.
Midfield/rucks battle
Let's get real, as even as they are at either end, this is truly where the match will be decided. You look at the names on Collingwood's groupings and you shudder as an opposition midfield coach, rightly so as well. However so far this season the Dons have been better than Collingwood on clearance differential, although Collingwood have been significantly better on the contested possession side of things in comparison. The match up between Adam Treloar and Dylan Shiel looks fascinating, Treloar has been stellar this year whilst Shiel is starting to look like the guy Essendon gave up two first round draft picks for, the two former Giants would be licking their lips at this. No less relevant will be the battle of the skippers, Dyson Heppell and Scott Pendlebury are remarkably similar players, but the pie skipper has had the wood on Heppell the past few years, and the last 5 games has reflected that, so Heppell will want to wrest back control for this. Rucks wise, Grundy beat Bellchambers in their head to heads twice, but the big T-Bell had his best game of the year in the game just gone and will be looking to back it up against the best in the comp.
Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence
Collingwood's forward line has been very efficient so far this year, kicking a goal 24.7% of the time it enter's the arc. Essendon's defense has been much better of recent weeks, lowering their goals/inside 50 mark to 22.2% at the defensive end. The match up I want to focus on is the one that is probably between Michael Hurley and Jordan De Goey. Not many defenders have the size and the agility to go with JDG, which is why he's so good, however Hurley does, as showcased by his beatdown of North skipper Jack Ziebell on Good Friday. Cale Hooker against Mason Cox is also important, Cox's main job will be to restrict Hooker's intercept marking, which is where many of Essendon's attacks ar launched from. And finally, our great nemesis Jamie Elliott plays again, does Adam Saad get the job? Given the other match ups inside 50 you'd have to think so, another extremely important match up.
X-Factor Player
Travis Varcoe seems to slip under the radar a bit for the Pies, he's quick, a good decision maker and does all the team things well. One of the most important players on Bucks' list.
Key stat
Essendon: Inside 50's. Collingwood concede the third fewest inside 50's a game in the league, need to increase that if they're to win.
Collingwood: Clearances. They have the best midfield in the league, use it to your advantae.
Tip
Dons by 7, Heppell to have the ANZAC Medal
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