catempire
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LAST TIME
GOALS
Geelong: Dangerfield 4, Menzel 2, Menegola 2, Duncan 2, Stanley, Smith, Motlop, Hawkins, Blicavs
Sydney: Jack, McVeigh, Mills, Papley, Reid
BEST
Geelong: Dangerfield, Henderson, Menegola, Duncan, Motlop, Blicavs, Taylor
Sydney: Hannebery, Grundy, Lloyd, Jack, McVeigh
INJURIES
Geelong: Lonergan (food poisoning) replaced in selected side by Rhys Stanley, Tom Stewart (hamstring)
Sydney: Nil
Reports: Nil
Umpires: Rosebury, Nicholls, Meredith
Official crowd: 55,529 at the MCG
TEAM CHANGES THIS WEEK
From the Round 5 sides Geelong is likely to see the return of Tom Hawkins (back spasms) and, potentially, Gary Ablett (hamstring). Geelong played a smaller side against Port Adelaide and, while it worked to advantage, you'd expect to see a smaller forward half player like Murdoch or Parsons to make way for Hawkins. Ablett is an interesting one, with Scott describing him as "very close" after the round 5 game but with a history of hamstring injuries you'd expect only to see him if they are very sure of him. If another player makes way it could be Scott Selwood who looked pretty sick after being taken out illegally by Lindsay Thomas.
For Sydney, Josh Kennedy looks to be battling with two sub-20 possession games in a row for the first time since 2013. Dan Hannebery is also struggling and has some Sydney fans calling for his head. It would be a bold call to drop either but if there's injury restricting them then Longmire may need to bite the bullet now with a longer term view. Aliir Aliir was omitted for Friday's clash but may come into consideration again.
KEY STATS
Geelong and Sydney are, unsurprisingly, quite evenly matched in many parts of the ground.
In the midfield, neither side has excelled so far this season with both sides ranked higher in handball than kicking and both ranking mid-table for possessions (8th Geelong; 9th Sydney). This is translating to an i50 shortfall for both teams, Geelong conceding 5.6 more than its opponents per game and Sydney 2.8 per game. At an individual level, Joel Selwood is the only player from either side to be ranked in the top 20 players in the league for possessions. There seems to be plenty of upside with Dangerfield, Ablett, Duncan for the Cats and Kennedy, Parker and Hannebery for the Swans.
Defensively, Geelong is faring slightly better, conceded about 3 fewer points per game than Sydney. Both teams hold up relatively well once the ball goes inside D50, the Swans are the 3rd best team at stopping opposition marks inside 50 (8.3 per game), while Geelong is 5th (9.0 per game).
In the forward half, both sides are languishing near the bottom of the table for i50s (Geelong 17th, Sydney 14th) with Geelong managing to convert their entries onto the scoreboard slightly more effectively by about a goal per game on average. Geelong actually rates 1st in the competition for converting i50s into goals at 28% while the Swans are also good in this area converting 25% of entries (equal 5th). Both sides are near the bottom for inside 50 pressure (tackles) also ranking 17th and 14th respectively (reflecting their poor i50 counts). At an individual level, Franklin has 18 goals and Menzel 15, with big gaps for both teams to next on the list (Kelly and Parfitt on 6 for Geelong and Parker on 6 for Sydney).
KEY MATCHUPS
Franklin v Kolodjashnij
After kicking 8 in the first round Franklin has reverted to the mean in subsequent matches but has still been more than handy. With his traditional nemesis Tom Lonergan retired and next most logical options Taylor and Henderson on the sidelines the Cats will face a choice between which undersized or inexperienced defender gets the unenviable job. Many will suggest Blicavs and that may eventuate but the one who has stepped up so far in 2018 has been Kolodjashnij. This would certainly be his biggest test so far but he has earned the job and a solid showing would be great for his credentials.
Rampe v Menzel
Menzel has been on fire again early in 2018, proving to be a handful for all opponents so far except the Eagles' Brad Sheppard. Rampe, probably one of the best one-on-one defenders in the league is an excellent match. The only wrinkle will be what the Swans do when Dangerfield goes forward. Rampe will get the sweats if he sees the #35 head toward the goalsquare after the 2017 semi final where Dangerfield tore him apart. For that reason he might be given the Menzel job to concentrate on and with Hawkins not kicking many goals this year (and Grundy typically a good match-up anyway), winning this battle could see Geelong struggle to kick a winning score.
Kennedy v Scott Selwood/George Horlin-Smith
After a couple of poor showings Kennedy will be extremely motivated to put that behind him here. His record against Geelong isn't great, having only 1 out of his 119 Brownlow votes earned against the Cats. But if Sydney is to bounce back they need Kennedy returning to his best. Either Selwood or GHS will likely get the job, depending on whether Selwood recovers from his concussion. This seems to be a key battle among the head-to-heads that will also feature with Dangerfield/Selwood/Duncan going up against Parker/Hannebery/Heeney. If either side can find a midfield edge it will go a long way to winning the match.
PREDICTION
This should be extremely close. But for the 2017 semi final, Sydney has a great record against the Cast, including in Geelong. They will be keen to turnaround that result and their loss against Adelaide last week. But Geelong has been resilient in the face of adversity so far this season. There is something about the Cats that gives me confidence they can again get the job done. Geelong by 7 points.
