Round 6 Match Preview: Melbourne v Eagles

Mr Q

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http://eagles.newman-knights.com/index.php?newsid=31

We're the Eagles, West Coast Eagles, and we thumped some Docker butt....

OK, so the smug feeling hasn't gone away yet, but reality is looming on the near horizon, and its once again away, this time in Melbourne for the first time in 2003, against a struggling Demons outfit. So it's time to knuckle down and look at a huge challenge (and important chance) coming up.

Changes
Michael Braun and Paul Johnson have been left out of the team for this week and Daniel Kerr is also out with an injured ankle. Coming into the team for this week in their place is Travis Gaspar (good to see him back), Kane Munro and Damien Adkins for his first game at the club.

Michael Braun, Jeremy Humm and Quinten Lynch have been named as emergencies.

Click here for the squad

Lead up
The Eagles are coming off a very comfortable derby win against Fremantle, while the Demons threw away their Anzac day clash with the Swans, conceding ten goals in the last quarter after only conceding seven to three quarter time.

Overall the Eagles are 3-2, but as we all know, those three wins were in Perth. Whilst last weeks derby was technically an away win, it was 1) at Subiaco and 2) against the Dockers - both of which negate the value of the win. Unfortunately in true away games the Eagles have not performed great, being comfortably defeated by the Crows in round 4 and losing by two points to the Hawks in Round 2. The merit in the loss to the Hawks has somewhat been deflated in that the Hawks have otherwise proven to be a bunch of powderpuffs this year (incidentally two point losses are the single most common result in Eagles history; you've got to hate that).

The Demons at 2-3 have not been in anything resembling form this year - except for David Neitz. They narrowly scraped home in the first round over the Hawthorn Powderpuffs, almost dropping a six goal lead and requiring a last gasp goal to win by only the six points. Dropping the game in Sydney by conceding ten goals in the last is even worse, and the Demons also let the otherwise out of form Geelong register their first win two weeks ago at Kardinia Park. In the opening five rounds the only comfortable win for the Demons was over the undermanned Doggies.

In the overall win category the difference in team form doesn't appear that great. However the Eagles have shown signs of brilliance this year, while the Demons have once again shown a fear of odd numbered years.

Injuries and Suspensions
Eagle Daniel Kerr has not come up from the ankle injury sustained last week in the win against the Dockers, and David Wirrpunda is also not available.

The Demons cannot select Troy Broadbridge (shoulder), Alistair Nicholson (knee)or Craig Ellis (knee), but otherwise have a full squad to choose from.

Match Ups
I think I've said enough about our midfield in recent weeks! Well maybe not, and that's because its such a good topic.

Michael Gardiner will have to face Melbourne's Jeff White this week. Whilst White is certainly not a shabby ruckman, Gardiner's white hot run of form this year is a big, big plus (hopefully I can continue to make the ruck a key match up all year!). The Eagles best form can be linked to Gardiner's dominance and this is probably the biggest matchup of the game.

Around about Gardiner's feet are a pretty damn good bunch of midfielders in Ben Cousins, Chris Judd and Chad Fletcher. Even in the absence of Daniel Kerr, the Melbourne midfield would be more than stretched to cover these three, especially if Andrew Embley and Rowan Jones show the form they have in recent weeks.

Up forward, the Demons defense will need to watch Phil Matera, but will need to be careful not to forget about last week's not-Rising Star and not-Ross Glendinning medallist, Ashley Sampi.

On the Demons ledger, they have David Neitz. Last Year's Coleman Medallist is again causing headaches for opposition sides, and shutting him down will be a huge key to the Eagles chances of a "real" away win. Other than Neitz though, there are few Demons that have shown much in the way of form in 2003

2002
Round 4, Princes Park
Melbourne 4.4 11.6 17.9 21.11 (137)
West Coast 2.3 7.7 10.9 15.13 (103)

Round 19, Subiaco Oval
Melbourne 1.4 8.7 10.12 15.16 (106)
West Coast 5.2 6.5 11.9 15.10 (100)

Head to Head
Played 29; Melbourne 12, West Coast 17, Draws 0.
Biggest margin - Melbourne : Melbourne 26.14 (170) d West Coast 15.10 (100) - 70 points, Subiaco, R22 2000
Biggest Margin - West Coast : West Coast 24.12 (156) d Melbourne 7.8 (50) - 106 points, Princes Park, R6 1996

Milestones

Summary
Most of what I've had to say is pretty positive for the Eagles (after beating the Dockers its not hard to be positive). However, it must be remembered that this game is in cold, wet Melbourne, not at Subiaco. The Eagles away record counts heavily against them in tipping a winner for this game, and until the Eagles actually win a game away its very hard to tip against that form. Last year's double loss to the Demons also gives credence to the Demons' chances. However I think the Eagles' form is too much stronger than Melbourne's, and I'll have to go with my gut instinct this week.

My prediction: West Coast by 13 points
 

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Voice of Reason

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#3
Nice preview, Mr Q.

One week we will break through interstate. Should have been in Tassie 3 weeks ago, but now we have another chance. On paper the loss of Wirra and Duncan is a big problem, but generally Woosha's teams have gone out there and played to a plan irrespective of the individuals playing, so I have some hope here.

Hope Gaspar is genuinely fit. Munro has had good WAFL form and is a dangerous forward in this type of away game, as shown in the final last year. Surprised Chipper is in, but we'll see how he goes. Haynes needs to play well at FF and someone needs to hold Neitz for the whole game (with help as needed). Cox needs to stand up too - Jolly is backing White up well. If our midfield plays to potential, we can match these Woewodin & Powell-free Demons.

Important test. Eagles by 13 points.
 

Jabber

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#4
Predicted to be cold & wet on Saturday, so will probably keep it close. My stats say an Eagles win by around 9 points, but they haven't been right yet this year when the Eagles are away from home.
 

iceman

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#5
Great review Mr Q

Im hesitant when it comes to tipping the Eagles away from home, theyre just a different team when they play away.

If they can shut down Neitz it'll go a long way to winning the match
 

RzrBlade

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#6
good review mr.q

we have the artillery to beat the dees, its just a matter of do we have the mind and will power to believe in ourselves away from our smug and cosy fortress of subiaco.

if we do, then we can breakthrough and win..but if we dont', then we will lose
 

jod23

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#7
Another great preview Mr Q.

On the milestones I was sure it was Gardy's 100th? Maybe im wrong? How many games has he played?

On the game, my heart says Eagles by 22 points but my head says Demons comfortably. With Duncan and Punda out and with the game not being held at Subiaco oval...well tough tough day at the office.
 
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