Preview Round 7, 2021: St.Kilda v Hawthorn - Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1st May, 4:35PM AEST *CROUCH 100TH*

Who Wins?

  • Saints

    Votes: 23 46.9%
  • Hawks

    Votes: 26 53.1%

  • Total voters
    49

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Moorabbin Ghost

Club Legend
Apr 28, 2015
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That bugs me in business ( KPI's ) too.
KPI's aren't results they are indicators. So are AFL statistics.
They may give you a clue as to what you are doing wrong, but you shouldn't be chasing the stats for the sake of improving the stat.
A whole industry in AFL coaching departments exist to use these stats to try and justify their own paycheque. It’s utterly ridiculous some of garbage spewed out by coaches trying to justify their own jobs.
 

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SaintsSeptember

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There is to my eye a decent correlation between good 2021 teams and high total number of effective disposals.

Also conversely, there appears to be a decent correlation between weak 2021 teams and lower effective disposal totals.


Of course the fix isn't to simply try and increase this stat.
But it serves to highlight that in 2021 gameplans that revolve around hitting up teammates have a better chance of success than hit and hope bombs onto tall forward heads.
Effective disposal "ratio " is important.
Imagine a team where, Paddy taps it to Steele, Steel unloads to Plugger, and Plugger marks and goals. Hardly any disposals. Depends on Steele winning a contested possession or clearance, and disposing of it well.
It wouldn't matter if the opposition team had 1000 times more effective disposals.
They might be chipping it backwards most of the time.

I always like the contested ball stat, because in a contest , if you don't win it, the opposition win it......i suppose it saves turning it over later.
 

tomjoad

Club Legend
Jun 17, 2018
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Odd conclusion to draw that merely addressing our contested poss count would go a long way to fixing our performance.... given we practically broke even with the bombers and were utterly humiliated in that game.

Yes, the article then goes onto address our smashings in uncontested ball v port and bombers... but it's more an afterthought.

Just goes to show the dangers of trying to find fixes to problems solely looking at stats sheets.

The fix for our woes isn't in focusing on improving any particular stats... it's in improving how and when we pass the ball to eachother.

The best teams this year are putting a premium on maintaining possession- the total opposite of what we do, where we try and catch the opposition napping by banging chaos balls forward quickly.

Worked well last year, but the new rules have made it easier for sides to play keepings off.
Which is very bad news for us, because our choas ball plan has baked into its core high risk of giving the ball back to the opposition often.

Once we start valuing possession of the ball more (ie play keepings off too moving the ball up the field), suddenly our our stats will improve. It's completely wrong headed to try and improve stats to improve how you play.
Improve how you play, and the stats will reflect it.
It's an over analysis by opposition coaches. I'd be looking at the Saints and saying that we are generally s*it across the board and not very good at playing football. We can be contested, but aren't particularly good at it, we can be uncontested, but aren't good at it, nor are we good at defence or kicking goals. That's the problem with the Saints...we could be good, but aren't. So it's easily exploitable. Better structure might help...Ratten said we had clever players the other day...I'd like to see this backed up with some form of evidence.
 

Premium

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 8, 2016
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Effective disposal "ratio " is important.
Imagine a team where, Paddy taps it to Steele, Steel unloads to Plugger, and Plugger marks and goals. Hardly any disposals. Depends on Steele winning a contested possession or clearance, and disposing of it well.
It wouldn't matter if the opposition team had 1000 times more effective disposals.
They might be chipping it backwards most of the time.

I always like the contested ball stat, because in a contest , if you don't win it, the opposition win it......i suppose it saves turning it over later.
very good point
 

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jwikked

Premiership Player
Sep 20, 2009
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Dropping Carlisle suggests Ratten is happy with sh*t defense and not holding blokes accountable. Indifferent on Lonie, on his day he's worth having.

Hope Byrnes tears it up, got my fingers crossed for him in a big way.


Edit -

I just remembered Carlisle went down with some back issues during training a few days ago, fair enough. Fair enough, I'll leave my bitter comments about Ratten up so everyone knows I've got no idea what I'm talking about.
 
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aussierulesrules

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 7, 2011
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He looked like he was battling last week. Couldn’t jump for marks. With the back spasms etc it would appear he’s on his last legs.
We haven’t had much luck in recent years with guys being cooked much earlier than you’d like:

Stuv
Robbo
Armo
Paddy
Jake
Koby

And when that happens you lose them for little or no return.

Big part of the reason our rebuild has stalled.
 

bergholt

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 14, 2007
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He looked like he was battling last week. Couldn’t jump for marks. With the back spasms etc it would appear he’s on his last legs.

Its a shame. I’ve always liked what he has done for us. But no one goes on forever I suppose.
Yeah, and he’s clearly been playing 2nd ruck so with Paddy back he hasn’t got a spot. I guess they’ve deemed him not useful for defence.
 
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