Preview Round 7: Essendon vs Western Bulldogs, Carrara, Friday 17/07/20, 7:50 PM

[Lore]

How do these player ratings work?

our top 5...

Shiel
Ridley
Langford
Smith
McGrath

Predominantly based on Metres Gained. Was reading about this the other day and decided no one else would really care that much lol...

A Review of AFL Player Rating Data — Matter of Stats

The fine folk who brought us the fitzRoy R package have been diligently collecting historical AFL Player Rating data with a view to potentially including it in an upcoming version of the package, and asked me to take a look at what they have so far, which spans the period from 2012 to the end of 2

www.matterofstats.com

 

[Lore]

There's also this version which is positional leaders:



Hooker is 13th in the league for Key Defenders

Ridley is 2nd and Saad is 9th for General Defenders

Parish 13th, Snelling 16th for General Forwards

Shiel is 5th for Midfield

Langford and Smith are 8th and 9th for Mid-Fwd

No Essendon players among the positional leaders for Key Forwards, Wing or Ruck.

 

[mike14]

There's also this version which is positional leaders:



Hooker is 13th in the league for Key Defenders

Ridley is 2nd and Saad is 9th for General Defenders

Parish 13th, Snelling 16th for General Forwards

Shiel is 5th for Midfield

Langford and Smith are 8th and 9th for Mid-Fwd

No Essendon players among the positional leaders for Key Forwards, Wing or Ruck.

Is it safe to assume that each team has 2 Key Forwards/Defenders for any one game in this model?

Disregard - found the stats tables. Francis (and Amborose and BZT) count as key defenders for us well

 

[Lore]

Is it safe to assume that each team has 2 Key Forwards/Defenders for any one game in this model?

No I don't think so, mainly because some clubs will definitely have more than two on their list who will have played more than 4 games a piece by the end of the year.

I think they classify them based on statistical patterns, I'm sure I've seen graphs and charts showing what the pattern looks like for particular positions and who the outliers are but I don't know where I'd find it just now, perhaps way back in the Champion Data twitter feed, or in the almanac from a few years ago or something. I may have even posted it on bigfooty at some point.

 

[citizen-erased]

McKenna cleared to play
Raz playing defence
Cahill all but confirmed

Shiel -> Cahill
Wondering if Gleeson makes way for Redman

 

[Lore]

I think Hibberd might be out for Cutler.

Based on nothing more than the colour of the training guernseys they're wearing in the training photos on the club website.

 

[CBombers17]

Has Francis ever said he doesn't want to play forward? Or the club? Or are people bundling his previous lack of fitness and other issues into him being a permanent defender?

If it makes us harder to play against and more dangerous (so more successful) then he plays forward if and when required - unless he lacks the confidence to lead at the ball and take set shots for some reason. He doesn't appear to lack any confidence on the field though (or aggression). If anything he verges on overconfident with the ball in hand at times.

 

[ScrappyCoCo]

With lots of games being condensed into a short time frame (and we have the Melb one to catch up on as well) are we going to see clubs start to use their list to try and keep players fresh? Ned's inclusion might be the start for us. Good luck nugget.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

I think Hibberd might be out for Cutler.

Based on nothing more than the colour of the training guernseys they're wearing in the training photos on the club website.

I could see that happening ....

 

[supportyourteam]

Car'n the Dons

 

[DallasCrane316]

I think Hibberd might be out for Cutler.

Based on nothing more than the colour of the training guernseys they're wearing in the training photos on the club website.

If our changes are Cahill and Cutler in, with Shiel and Hibberd out, its a pretty decent team.

 

[ghostdog]

With lots of games being condensed into a short time frame (and we have the Melb one to catch up on as well) are we going to see clubs start to use their list to try and keep players fresh? Ned's inclusion might be the start for us. Good luck nugget.

We have our nickname I reckon. Let's go Nugget!

 

[yaco55]

The wider picture with Francis or Stewart coming in as a forward is it relieves pressure on Mckernan, who is still prone to the odd shocker - The way the team is structured puts too much pressure on Mckernan.

 

[JayJ20]

I don't know about replacing Hibberd with Cutler. It makes sense when we look at the role Hibberd played, but contested ball is an area Bulldogs have consistently destroyed us in. With our primary ball-winner suspended and the other (Heppell) injured, I don't see why we would bring in an outside winger like Cutler for a contested ball winner. Cahill coming in basically means that Parish will play in the middle. Hibberd and Parish should replace Heppell and Shiel. I just hope we're not playing Cutler on a wing and Langford in the middle. Please no

I'm hoping it is:

OUT: Shiel (susp), McKenna (inj)
IN: Cahill, Francis/Redman

I fear they'll be replacing Hibberd with Cutler and putting Langford in the middle, making Parish, McGrath, Merrett and Langford our main ball winners against Bont, Smith and MacRae. That will not end well.

 

[ghostdog]

I think Hibberd might be out for Cutler.

Based on nothing more than the colour of the training guernseys they're wearing in the training photos on the club website.

On that basis, Snelling, Redman, Ham and Francis won't be selected, so maybe not.

 

[owen87]

I don't know about replacing Hibberd with Cutler. It makes sense when we look at the role Hibberd played, but contested ball is an area Bulldogs have consistently destroyed us in. With our primary ball-winner suspended and the other (Heppell) injured, I don't see why we would bring in an outside winger like Cutler for a contested ball winner. Cahill coming in basically means that Parish will play in the middle. Hibberd and Parish should replace Heppell and Shiel. I just hope we're not playing Cutler on a wing and Langford in the middle. Please no

I'm hoping it is:

OUT: Shiel (susp), McKenna (inj)
IN: Cahill, Francis/Redman

I fear they'll be replacing Hibberd with Cutler and putting Langford in the middle, making Parish, McGrath, Merrett and Langford our main ball winners against Bont, Smith and MacRae. That will not end well.

Agreed, they've been using Hibberd on the Wing / HBF more than in the middle (which is stupid) so bringing Cutler in to play that role makes sense.

What makes more sense, is playing Hibberd in the middle, along with Parish.

Cahill in for Shiel, with Parish going through the midfield more.
Cutler in for McKenna could work, with Hibberd playing through the midfield like he was draft for, and Cutler playing the HBF / Wing role he's actually suited to.

 

[Ambrosia]

Surely we aren’t that high on Cutler that he comes straight back in after a lay off.

You could make a reasonable argument that Hibberd’s game against North was better than either of Cutlers.

 

[Vander18]

The wider picture with Francis or Stewart coming in as a forward is it relieves pressure on Mckernan, who is still prone to the odd shocker - The way the team is structured puts too much pressure on Mckernan.

Agree - he needs a genuine tall to help out. Think people underestimate how much is being asked of Smack and how hard he has to work each week.

Works up, works back and then gets thrown in as an undersized ruck for a “rest. It’s a helluva job he has been asked to do and I feel like he approaches it really selflessly.

 

[Dale4captain]

Should be a great game if we aren’t stubborn and actually adjust to the conditions. Our game style was ridiculous against The Blues. Trying to play high possession footy in a butter factory is just dumb.

Having two of our top 5 blokes out is hurting Our structure in Dunks and Naughton but we will get Croz back this week which helps. Weightman & Cahill debuting in the same game is awesome. Apparently they’re very good mates.

You guys having no real recognised tall forwards could actually help a bunch going on last weeks night games. It’s so bloody slippery up there. Hopefully Schache has had a kick up the ass because we can’t sit him On the pine for half the game again (only played 57% game time...).

Here’s to a red hot game. Very much looking forward to it (y)

 

[IHurley]

If McKenna plays, what's the bet they target his injured finger.

As long as they do it "fairly" that's just footy.

 

[The Prosecutor]

If McKenna plays, what's the bet they target his injured finger.

From, memory, didn't they bring something in so that's now a suspendable offence?

 

[Bulldogs85]

Congratulations on Ned Cahill debut hope he has a long and successful career with you guys.

 

[Arctic fox]

As long as they do it "fairly" that's just footy.

"fairly"?????

 

[Arctic fox]

From, memory, didn't they bring something in so that's now a suspendable offence?

Didn't Stratton get a week for continually pinching Fantasia?

 

[Fridge16]

Dogs have dropped 4 players according to Bevo.