Preview Round 8: Fremantle v Brisbane. Venue: Nauru

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WAnchor

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Round 8: Fremantle v Brisbane



Venue:
Yeah right?

Despite being shut down in the Changes thread, @ PattyKwasagun, Gil yesterday gave the Freo faithful a heads up that an unplanned trip to Brisbane may be on the cards.
At time of release, speculation is rife that Gil is meeting tomorrow with John Howard to discuss the Nauru solution.



Common Traitors

Among over 300 Brisbane players and 200 Fremantle players only six have played for both clubs: John Hutton, Brendon Retzlaff, Adrian Fletcher, Des Headland, Lachie Neale and James Aish. Brisbane supporters - Mitch Crowden is a real goer. 2nd round pick and you may get lucky.



Win Loss Record

Since the Lions entered the competition in 1997, they have played Freo 29 times. Subverting the norm, this is a team for which Freo has a positive win/loss ratio – albeit marginal: 15 wins, 14 losses.



Yesterday’s Heroes

It was back in 1997 that the great Daniel Parker, precursor to Clive, Keplar and *enter name here* [my God how we are crying out for a new incarnation], monstered 3 goals 3 behinds in round 8, the first game between Fremantle and newly formed Brisbane Lions. Fremantle 14.14 (98) beat Brisbane 15.3 (93). As for Parker, he was robbed of Brownlow Votes for this, arguably his greatest AFL moment.



And we are now a decade on since bad-ass Jonathan Brown’s gutless headbutt that could have curtailed Luke McPharlin’s career, a career that was never threatened by injury... It was round one 2011 and, coming off a 3-15 2010 season, Brisbane held a 19 point lead. It was around this time that Brown, who had already kicked three goals, could foresee some burgeoning Freo magic. In his panic-stricken desperation, head-strong Brown launched his forehead into McPharlin’s knee. McPharlin, with knees made from titanium, did not yield. This could not be said for Brown’s face, however, which collapsed more with more readily than Alex Pearce’s fibula an Iraqi dictatorship: not for the squeamish. Later likening it to going 12 months in the ring with Mike Tyson, Brown retired mid season 2014 because of ongoing episodes of concussion. His brain will make for very interesting Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy research.

Screen Shot 2021-05-03 at 3.54.52 pm.png






Last time they played

Brisbane and Freo should feel accustomed to having their games impacted by Covid contingencies. With round one on 21 March last year, the advent of Covid meant that Freo and Brisbane did not square off until 13 June, some 13 weeks later.



A Brisbane home game, late in the fourth quarter Michael Walters kicked his second goal, bringing Freo to within range of an unlikely win. The Lions steadied, however, and won by two straight goals. Michael Walters picked up 1 vote, Fyfe 2, and Lachie Neale 3. Walters kicked 3 goals, had a team high 28 disposals and a team high 5 tackles. People saying he hasn’t played well under Longmuir take note. Fyfe? Well he had 24 disposals and 3 tackles. And, I feel like crying when I type that he kicked 3.1.



Last year’s Freo line up included Hayden Young, Luke Ryan, Brett Bewley, Brandon Matera, Adam Cerra and Bailey Banfield. Different players we fielded last week were @Joao’s lovechild Mitch Crowden, Blake Acres, Tobe Watson, Heath Chapman, Michael Frederick and Nathan Wilson.



Possible ins

With Freo crying out for defensive reinforcements, Longmuir has stated that Luke Ryan is no certainty. It is unlikely that Hamling will be good to go and Pearce, well he’s a Pearce and they are always out.



The Dockers had a good number of players feature in the WAFL over the weekend and, after such an insipid display, as well as unknown injuries, there will be changes. Josh Treacy had 18 possessions, kicked 5 goals and, encouragingly, laid 5 tackles. Meanwhile, Sam Sturt kicked 4 goals from his 14 possessions and laid 4 tackles. A number of other players – Stefan Giro, Connor Blakely, Brett Bewley and Joel Western had busy games, as did Lloyd Meek – so the match committee will at least have alternatives to discuss.



Neale is injured.



2021 – the story thus far

With both teams among the logjam of five on 16 points, they are separated by percentage, with Brisbane 17% stronger.



Going by the ladder to date, Freo has had a soft start to the year, with its wins coming against GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide and North Melbourne, all of whom sit below Freo on the ladder. Freo have been beaten by Melbourne, Carlton and The West Australian Coast Eagles. So far in 2021, the words ‘honourable loss’ have worryingly been absent from Freo match reports, with good thumpings received from the latter two teams. By comparison, Brisbane have lost to the Bulldogs, Geelong and Sydney and they have beaten Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton & last week the ominously smashed Port Adelaide.



Statistics of note:

According to 2021 statistics thus far, there are many similarities between these teams. The following differences are notable:

  • Freo averages nearly 20 more disposals per game, the difference being in uncontested football.
  • The Lions are naughty. They average 6 more frees against than we do. Nothing like this coming weekend for the umps to even the ledger.
  • The Lions average 7 more tackles per game.
  • Fremantle’s disposal efficiency is 4% superior and Brisbane average 8 more clangers per game.
  • We average nearly four more marks inside 50 per game.
  • Whilst Brisbane average 1.7 bounces per game, Freo averages 5.3.
  • Tellingly, Freo conversion in 8% inferior, with Brisbane averaging 28 disposal per goral, Freo 33. Got to fix that accuracy.
  • Brisbane averages 9 more turnovers per game.
  • Brisbane’s averages 10.7 i50 tackles, compared with 6.4 for Freo.


Predictions

Changes

Out – Crowden, Hughes (inj), Chapman (inj)

In – Ryan, Treacy, Duman

Sub – Western



FyfeWatch – 2 goals 1 behind.



Venue – Brisbane



Result – Fremantle in a nail-biter.
 

FreoRicci

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Can we just forfeit rather then go to Gabba? As long as Tabs gets his 3 goal average as reward
 

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SiempreFreo

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Bravo WAnchor! Nothing cheers me up more after a dud Freo game than a witty, well-researched preview such as yours.

Love a good stat 'cos it tells a truth, not a subjective prejudice. Brennan Cox, called 'lazy' on here by quite a few, leads the club for one percenters: 66 to date, despite playing with injury, and streets ahead of next in line Ryan, 25 and guess who,
E. Goat Hughes, 22.

After our mids (Fyfe Mundy Brayshaw Serong) then Darcy, who ranks 6th for contested possessions? The aforesaid E.G.H.

Almost as often maligned Colyer is third for goals after Tabs and Schultz with 7, admittedly a modest total but one more than marvellous Mundy.

Top for disposals are the expected, Brayshaw (191), then Mundy (182) , Serong (166), Fyfe (157) and surprise surprise, the "Should be axed" Acres on 133 - with Hughes next on 126. Acres also happens to be among our top 7 tacklers.

Reckon players need to be shown a bit more respect for what they're actually doing for the team.
 

Granny Val

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Agree
Bravo WAnchor! Nothing cheers me up more after a dud Freo game than a witty, well-researched preview such as yours.

Love a good stat 'cos it tells a truth, not a subjective prejudice. Brennan Cox, called 'lazy' on here by quite a few, leads the club for one percenters: 66 to date, despite playing with injury, and streets ahead of next in line Ryan, 25 and guess who,
E. Goat Hughes, 22.

After our mids (Fyfe Mundy Brayshaw Serong) then Darcy, who ranks 6th for contested possessions? The aforesaid E.G.H.

Almost as often maligned Colyer is third for goals after Tabs and Schultz with 7, admittedly a modest total but one more than marvellous Mundy.

Top for disposals are the expected, Brayshaw (191), then Mundy (182) , Serong (166), Fyfe (157) and surprise surprise, the "Should be axed" Acres on 133 - with Hughes next on 126. Acres also happens to be among our top 7 tacklers.

Reckon players need to be shown a bit more respect for what they're actually doing for the team.
On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

FreoRicci

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Confirmed. Game moved to Gabba. Two away trips in a row. Gone from possible 5-2 to likely 4-5. Tough fortnight coming up
 

Joao

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Confirmed. Game moved to Gabba. Two away trips in a row. Gone from possible 5-2 to likely 4-5. Tough fortnight coming up
Given our form, only Sydney looks winnable from our next 5 and even that is 55-45 I think.

Essendon maybe depending on which version of each team turns up.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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On the bright side, the team has the opportunity to win a lot of fans back the next two weeks. Jag a win the next two weeks and be competitive in the other game and the team will claw back some of the currency lost on the weekend.

Team is good enough at their best to be competitive at least the next two weeks, up to them to show everyone they can embrace a challenge (they are 0-2 so far this year on that front)
 

Joao

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On the bright side, the team has the opportunity to win a lot of fans back the next two weeks. Jag a win the next two weeks and be competitive in the other game and the team will claw back some of the currency lost on the weekend.

Team is good enough at their best to be competitive at least the next two weeks, up to them to show everyone they can embrace a challenge (they are 0-2 so far this year on that front)
I want to believe but I don't. The little trust the Crows game gave me was dashed when they got flogged by GWS and then the Derby.

We're the same team as last year except we can't defend properly against good sides but can score a little more against everyone.
 

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kidstyler

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The performance in the derby was pathetic and they need to respond just like the Eagles responded after their soft cock performance against Geelong.

I can't see us beating Brisbane (home or away), would just like to see better fight at the contest.

The next 5 weeks are going to be tough for freo. I wanna believe that they can win 1 or 2 of them but I think we about to go on a 6 game losing streak.
 

Joao

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The performance in the derby was pathetic and they need to respond just like the Eagles responded after their soft cock performance against Geelong.

I can't see us beating Brisbane (home or away), would just like to see better fight at the contest.

The next 5 weeks are going to be tough for freo. I wanna believe that they can win 1 or 2 of them but I think we about to go on a 6 game losing streak.
I reckon we win 1. We'll be 5-7

Just need to find someone to stick on the LTI and take that sweet mid-season top 6 draft pick for a bloke that almost certainly won't play a game for us.
 

Van_Dyke

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On the bright side, the team has the opportunity to win a lot of fans back the next two weeks. Jag a win the next two weeks and be competitive in the other game and the team will claw back some of the currency lost on the weekend.

Team is good enough at their best to be competitive at least the next two weeks, up to them to show everyone they can embrace a challenge (they are 0-2 so far this year on that front)
call me jaded, i'm expecting at best a competitive loss this round, then get jumped by essendon after they go down to GWS this weekend
 

Snuffaluphagus

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call me jaded, i'm expecting at best a competitive loss this round, then get jumped by essendon after they go down to GWS this weekend
Mah bad, thought it was Port next week, bright side revised. They have a chance to show us something this week.

They had better not lose to Essendon the week after
 

Square Peg

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Obviously Brisbane will smack us about this week but we can beat Essendon away, I have them on a par with Adelaide and I was confident we'd beat the crows.
Then Sydney at home winnable too.
I can see us 6-4 still. Just need to drop the pea hearts, have a crack this week and take some momentum into the bombers game
 

eastfreo75

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Hughes, Pearce, Hamling, Chapman, Ryan, Young and S Hill all out of our defense.

Daniher, Hipwood and Cameron are going to kick 15 goals between them.

100 point lose coming our way.
 

Kapow!!!

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Hughes, Pearce, Hamling, Chapman, Ryan, Young and S Hill all out of our defense.

Daniher, Hipwood and Cameron are going to kick 15 goals between them.

100 point lose coming our way.
Daniher?! He might get 12 shots at goal but we'd be bloody stiff if he kicks more than 3. And Conca has actually been doing a good job on the smalls this year.

Depends how badly our midfield get pantsed or if they actually respond to last week.
 

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