Preview Round 8: Saints vs Crows

[stkildathunda]

Oops posted in wrong thread. All this talk about who plays on Lynch but no one mentions Rhys Stanley? Isn't he supposed to be our "big defender"? Surely he takes Lynch if he is indeed a defender!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Pardon the intrusion.

Think it should be a cracker of a game. Lets be honest - both teams have had less than an ideal start to 2013. Saints 2-5 and Adelaide 3-4. Our 5 wins combined have come against teams with a combined 6-22 record.

The two sides will be completely from Rd12 in 2012 with the Crows to be without Walker, Tippett, Callinan, Martin, Petrenko, Doughty, Shaw, Jaensch, Knights and the Saints to be without Goddard, Hayes, Kosi, Blake, Gram, Gilbert, Schnieder.

For me the key for us will be Dangerfield. When he has been on song this year, we have looked very good. When he has been off (Essendon/Port games) we looked sluggish and got smashed in the clearances. He is our #1 player by a mile and has really lifted his game over the past 2 weeks. Forget Thompson (has learnt how to deal with the tag) and Sloane (more of a gut runner who will only get 20-25 possies) you need to shut down Danger. He can win the game by himself. Would think you would bring in Clinton Jones - purely so that if Dangerfield gets on top of Geary - you have a quality second option.

The Saints fans questioning where our goals are going to come from are 100% on the money. We realistically have two forwards in our team Jenkins and the out of form Porps (who spends 40% of his time in the middle). Jenkins is still raw. Has lots of potential if you ask me, but his kicking for goal leaves a little to be desired. He will have a couple of games this year where he will kick a bag and make people take notice, but is still pretty far off being a dominant forward. Our other tall forward McKernan hasn't set the world on fire so far in his career. Lynch kicked 9 goals in his first 9 games with us - so really think we need to take his 10 against GWS with a pinch of salt. The rest of our forwards will comprise of resting midfielders.

For me the three biggest concerns are:

1. McEvoy against Sauce. You guys have a genuine superstar in McEvoy. What he has shown as a 200cm ruckman at 23 is pretty special. Hasn't gotten the attention (IMO) of Danger,Cotchin,Rioli from that 2007 draft but could end up as good as the other 3 if he keeps improving. This battle will be huge, especially since Sauce has been so out of touch this year. If Sauce can negate McEvoy I think we will win the midfield battle comfortably however if McEvoy gets on top you will come out ahead in the middle.

2. Sam Fisher. With our dysfunctional forward line, Fishers rebound off half back could really hurt us. Andrew Walker killed us in our loss to Carlton (32 possies). For me - I would like to see Lynch go to him as a defensive forward.

3. Small forwards - I think we have enough options to negate Roo (Rutten/Talia/Otten are all in good form). What worries me are Milne/Saad/Milera. We had Garlett/Yarran/Betts kick 8 between them in our loss to Carlton. We have a couple of small Defenders - Laird & Brown. Both have been playing well considering they have a massive 13 games of AFL experience between them. Hopefully for our chances they can keep your smalls quiet.

It should be a pretty even contest. I think we should win by about 12-18 points, based purely because I feel we have a bit more talent in the middle.

Tippet replaced by Lynch<<<<< Kosi replaced by any rookie in the AFL.

More seriously, Fisher hasn't been the rebounder this year. Roberton, Dempster, ( Wright out ) and Geary, but its James Gwilt ( admittedly only 2 games on him ) who tends to average the most rebounds.
Unless you have a pretty buff reverse tagger, Gwilt will be like a Gorilla tagged by a butterfly.

 

[AFC979810]

It's absolutely no intrusion with analysis like that, man! Great stuff. Feel welcome.

Dude, it is wet AS here! Will that effect your selections in any way, do you think?

Personally (some on our board disagree). I think we will go in unchanged regardless of weather.

We really need to start getting a bit of consistency in our lineup and if we go in unchanged it will be the first time in 2013. We don't really have any guns returning from injury. Our (hopefully) future superstar in Crouch will most likely return through the SANFL after missing the last 2 weeks with a Hammy.

The player who has the best chance of being dropped is porps. His form has not been good at all. If he goes out we will bring in either Henderson/Jaensch. I am hopeful we stick with Porps, because at his best he will help our makeshift forward line a hell of a lot.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Oops posted in wrong thread. All this talk about who plays on Lynch but no one mentions Rhys Stanley? Isn't he supposed to be our "big defender"? Surely he takes Lynch if he is indeed a defender!

Rhys will probably get someone taller.

We should lay of on Lynch a bit.
Some of us were bagging Hurley before the Essendon game, and he ripped us a new one.
We dont want to create too much bad Karma here.

 

[Falchoon]

He can win the game by himself. Would think you would bring in Clinton Jones - purely so that if Dangerfield gets on top of Geary - you have a quality second option.

We can sacrifice Montagna

 

[Elvis Winmar]

Hey guys, long time reader of Bigfooty, first time poster.

While it's important not to get carried away after one good game, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this game.

With all due respect to Tom Lynch, Adelaide doesn't have a 'monster forward' at the moment capable of tearing us apart. Despite the amount of hostility directed towards Stanley on other threads, he's been a solid part of a back line that is really starting to gel.

Dangerfield is a star, but I think the crows are overly reliant on him to spark them into action. Nullifying him with another Geary special will go a long way to winning the game.

Webster deserves a full game after last week's effort. What I love about the kids that we are blooding at the moment is that they are all 'good decision makers'. Ross, Wright, Sipposs, Newnes, all of them refuse to panic in tight spots. I value that trait more than anything else.

Ultimately, across the field, we line up very well.

Plus, playing Adelaide at Football Park gives me another reason to watch highlights of the 2005 Qualifying Final. Hell yes.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

Hey guys, long time reader of Bigfooty, first time poster.

While it's important not to get carried away after one good game, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this game.

With all due respect to Tom Lynch, Adelaide doesn't have a 'monster forward' at the moment capable of tearing us apart. Despite the amount of hostility directed towards Stanley on other threads, he's been a solid part of a back line that is really starting to gel.

Dangerfield is a star, but I think the crows are overly reliant on him to spark them into action. Nullifying him with another Geary special will go a long way to winning the game.

Webster deserves a full game after last week's effort. What I love about the kids that we are blooding at the moment is that they are all 'good decision makers'. Ross, Wright, Sipposs, Newnes, all of them refuse to panic in tight spots. I value that trait more than anything else.

Ultimately, across the field, we line up very well.

Plus, playing Adelaide at Football Park gives me another reason to watch highlights of the 2005 Qualifying Final. Hell yes.

Good first post Elvis. Welcome to BF

 

[MordySaint]

Still on a high from Monday night, gosh its great to beat Carlton!

After thinking back to Mondays game, it still perplexes me how we could only manage 77 points. Played so well, so many possesions yet struggled on the scoreboard. Maybe someone can illuminate me.

I do think the change should be regardless of the weather:

Out: Wright
In: Maister

Maister is a great kick, can bust the packs apart, tackles hard and never gives in. I hope they don't use him as a switch ruckman though as I am not sure this is a tactic that makes a good forward.

Well done to Jimmy Webster on Monday. Really loved the video that the saints produced of his first day in AFL footy land http://www.saints.com.au/news/2013-05-15/webster-debut-caps-turbulent-week . Top stuff saints!!!

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

For those that are still mentioning Maister as an in.

Injury List:
Sam Gilbert - Knee - 7-11 weeks
Daniel Markworth - ACL- Season
Adam Schneider - Hamstring - 3-4 weeks
Beau Maister - Wrist - 1-2 weeks
Lenny Hayes - Calf - 2-3 weeks
Darren Minchington - Hamstring - 2-3 weeks
Nathan Wright - Jaw - 1-2 weeks
Tom Simpkin - Quad - 1-2 weeks

http://www.saints.com.au/team/injuries

 

[Persevering Saint]

Oops posted in wrong thread. All this talk about who plays on Lynch but no one mentions Rhys Stanley? Isn't he supposed to be our "big defender"? Surely he takes Lynch if he is indeed a defender!

Lynch isn't worthy of being given Stanley.

 

[MordySaint]

Ooops!!!!

Should check the injury list before I post.

Change:

Out: Wright
In: Lee

Time for Lee to show Adelaide what they missed out on!!!!

 

[Persevering Saint]

Lee isn't on the injury list that you posted Stanley_Knifes.

What do we think? If the game was at Etihad, I would consider playing him as the two-and-a-halved tall (so Roo, Hickey, and him) until Beau comes back. Structurally on a dry pitch, that'd be fine. I could certainly see us playing him in that role when we play Doggies the week after.

But given the wetness of this game, I don't think we need to go in so tall, structurally.

 

[CHBench]

I take it Milne is 100% safe this week given that article that was just posted on the saints website.

 

[AFC979810]

Tippet replaced by Lynch<<<<< Kosi replaced by any rookie in the AFL.

More seriously, Fisher hasn't been the rebounder this year. Roberton, Dempster, ( Wright out ) and Geary, but its James Gwilt ( admittedly only 2 games on him ) who tends to average the most rebounds.
Unless you have a pretty buff reverse tagger, Gwilt will be like a Gorilla tagged by a butterfly.

Don't bring up Gwilt . Still remember this unknown player tearing us a new one in the 2005 final (anyone else brings that up again and I bring up 1997).

In all honesty its Gwilt and Fisher who scare me the most. Watched your game on Monday and thought Fisher looked like the Fisher of old (thought he lead in rebound 50's as well for that game). Both have pace, read the game very well and set up a lot of drive off half back.

Hoping I don't overstep my mark, but I am not as concerned with Dempster (think he is a more of a shutdown defender) or Roberton (just don't think he is as damaging as Gwilt or Fisher).

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Lee isn't on the injury list that you posted Stanley_Knifes.

What do we think? If the game was at Etihad, I would consider playing him as the two-and-a-halved tall (so Roo, Hickey, and him) until Beau comes back. Structurally on a dry pitch, that'd be fine. I could certainly see us playing him in that role when we play Doggies the week after.

But given the wetness of this game, I don't think we need to go in so tall, structurally.

Hasn't played for two weeks will probably get a run in the VFL?

 

[Persevering Saint]

Playing against Bendigo isn't a run... it's bowel movement.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Tom has only played two full games of footy (v GWS in R3 and the week before, in the VFL) since the mini games in R1 of the NAB Cup, 3 months ago and is coming off an injury. Just sayin'.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Don't bring up Gwilt . Still remember this unknown player tearing us a new one in the 2005 final (anyone else brings that up again and I bring up 1997).

In all honesty its Gwilt and Fisher who scare me the most. Watched your game on Monday and thought Fisher looked like the Fisher of old (thought he lead in rebound 50's as well for that game). Both have pace, read the game very well and set up a lot of drive off half back.

Hoping I don't overstep my mark, but I am not as concerned with Dempster (think he is a more of a shutdown defender) or Roberton (just don't think he is as damaging as Gwilt or Fisher).

You've probably read it pretty right.
Last week the ball was bouncing from player to player in the backline, until it landed in the big strong hands of the nameless player who propelled it towards our forward 50.
Though looking at last weeks stats Fisher and Stanley rebounded just as many.

As far as damage goes though, Roberton has snuck forward for a goal the last couple of games.

 

[hayes]

I don't think we can bring in another tall without taking out either Hickey or Siposs. Having two talls, a ruckmen, a medium and three smalls is just too much.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I don't think we can bring in another tall without taking out either Hickey or Siposs. Having two talls, a ruckmen, a medium and three smalls is just too much.

I'd be bringing in Jones , even if its as a sub.
Chances are that one of Newnes, Webster, Ross will be getting pretty quiet by half time ( its a bit soon to expect consistant strong performances from them ) and Jones will be able to come straight back in and help win contested ball.

 

[stkildathunda]

Cos Stanley is such a superstar defender? I'd think you'd want to pay bit of attention to bloke thats just kicked 10 goals, even if "it was only GWS"

EDIT: I mean if Stanley is as good as what people say, he should have no problem stopping "the hack" Tom Lynch

 

[SaintLex]

The best thing about Geary being used in a tagging role is that he is just as adept playing in defense as well, which is the huge knock on Jones. I hope we give Gears first crack at Danger and i'd personally back him to win that battle or at least break-even.

Having said that, there's something about playing in SA that just gets to the saints. We usually struggle there so I think the home ground advantage will be huge for the crows.

Should be a good game, though.

 

[aussierulesrules]

We came within a kick in both our games there last year and then won against Adelaide comfortably in the NAB Cup, so i don't think it will hold too many fears for us.

 

[TheStinger]

Going to the game on Sunday as my last bit of Australiana before I head off for Europe again. Hope the boys can do us proud and shut up some of the numpty Crows supporters. Go Sainters!!!!!!

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

We came within a kick in both our games there last year and then won against Adelaide comfortably in the NAB Cup, so i don't think it will hold too many fears for us.

Don't think Thompson, Dangerfield, Sloane etc played in that NAB Cup though. NAB Cup means nothing at all