Preview Round 8- Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Fri 5.30pm AWST

[malpaso]

Going to the game on Saturday with high hopes, but not a lot of confidence.

Bet your great at parties though..

 

[malpaso]

On paper, yes.
Need to show it on field.

your right 18-4 over the last 22 games doesn't show anything..

 

[theGav56]

Don’t think anyone would deliberately but he’ll either have to jump off that knee or lead with it in the ruck contest so I imagine it will get knocked at some point. Either way he’ll have it strapped up like crazy

I hope they go full Parker/Gherig if he plays injured.

 

[Randomizor]

I remember the creator of squiggle before talking about how, on average, playing at home is worth about +12 points.

So if you’re looking at the matchup and think “oh it’ll be an 11 point win to Freo on paper” then factor in the home ground weighting, it swings to being a 1 point win for the Dogs.

 

[The Round House Drunk]

Why predicting winners in the footy is a lot harder than we think

Predicting who is going to win during each round of the AFL is tough, and even computer algorithms struggle to do better than the luckiest human.

www.abc.net.au

This is an interesting article about it. Injured players are a variable in the model, but it has less impact than other variables:

Corke said the difference in terms of points lost by not having a star available was less than a goal at best.

"If they're an absolute gun, maybe three of four points, maybe six at a stretch, but it's nothing more than that," he said.

 

[BREATHLESS_987]

Why predicting winners in the footy is a lot harder than we think

Predicting who is going to win during each round of the AFL is tough, and even computer algorithms struggle to do better than the luckiest human.

www.abc.net.au

This is an interesting article about it. Injured players are a variable in the model, but it has less impact than other variables:

Corke said the difference in terms of points lost by not having a star available was less than a goal at best.

"If they're an absolute gun, maybe three of four points, maybe six at a stretch, but it's nothing more than that," he said.

Which, to me, makes sense provided you’re just talking about one injured player. But there has to be a weight of numbers effect to injuries where every extra missing player from the best 18 should get a heavier weighting, as the depth gets more and more tested the deeper you’re pulling from players 25-35 from the list.

 

[ubiquitous226]

Which, to me, makes sense provided you’re just talking about one injured player. But there has to be a weight of numbers effect to injuries where every extra missing player from the best 18 should get a heavier weighting, as the depth gets more and more tested the deeper you’re pulling from players 25-35 from the list.

Practically yes, by from a modelling perspective it's probably not often, and if the data holds could be as simple as a higher weighting for more injuries.

Of course this doesn't cover losing a lot in one area of the ground vs a bit here and there, but making a model more complex doesn't necessarily make it more accurate.

 

[theGav56]

The impact of us losing Voss maybe an example.

Cox has capacity to replace some of the forward impact that was lost, and Sharp brought some other useful traits.

But I find it more difficult to wipe away the impact losing Young may have had in recent times. Or how we may fare if Jackson has issues.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

The impact of us losing Voss maybe an example.

Cox has capacity to replace some of the forward impact that was lost, and Sharp brought some other useful traits.

But I find it more difficult to wipe away the impact losing Young may have had in recent times. Or how we may fare if Jackson has issues.

I feel like our game is built around Jackson.

 

[FreoRicci]

your right 18-4 over the last 22 games doesn't show anything..

What does it show?
A elimination final loss..

 

[DocT]

The impact of us losing Voss maybe an example.

Cox has capacity to replace some of the forward impact that was lost, and Sharp brought some other useful traits.

But I find it more difficult to wipe away the impact losing Young may have had in recent times. Or how we may fare if Jackson has issues.

Ur right - but by their nature the models just go off grouped data and their averages. So some injuries mean 0 points difference, some may mean 2 goals+.

 

[poshman]

What does it show?
A elimination final loss..

It is a positive stat and ignoring that shocking loss is foolish.

We cracked under pressure to a team with less finals experience. A top two finish should be the absolute goal this year. Then the question will be have we learned to crush teams and lock the door when the time comes. We won't know that until we show it in September.

 

[theGav56]

It is a positive stat and ignoring that shocking loss is foolish.

We cracked under pressure to a team with less finals experience. A top two finish should be the absolute goal this year. Then the question will be have we learned to crush teams and lock the door when the time comes. We won't know that until we show it in September.

You are right, but there significant changes to our game which have been clearly evident this season.

I think they are still being bedded down, and will take some time. But it is clear that many of the concerns posters discussed last season just don't exist at the moment: slow starts, transition, indecision, speed of play, depth, scoring.

It was even reported that Davies wore a hat to a preseason training session.

 

[Purple Suit]

Which, to me, makes sense provided you’re just talking about one injured player. But there has to be a weight of numbers effect to injuries where every extra missing player from the best 18 should get a heavier weighting, as the depth gets more and more tested the deeper you’re pulling from players 25-35 from the list.

Teams having a bad run also tend to just be closer to turning it around. Doggies getting pumped for three games in a row probably isn't a positive for us, more like a negative as the fit players are going to want to lift and probably change up a few things that we will have to react to.

 

[Mags98]

It is a positive stat and ignoring that shocking loss is foolish.

We cracked under pressure to a team with less finals experience. A top two finish should be the absolute goal this year. Then the question will be have we learned to crush teams and lock the door when the time comes. We won't know that until we show it in September.

brissie had quite a run of poor finals results before ultimately cracking it. not saying that wasnt a poor loss but that doesnt mean we wont go on further with it going into the future.

 

[go_the_dockers]

brissie had quite a run of poor finals results before ultimately cracking it. not saying that wasnt a poor loss but that doesnt mean we wont go on further with it going into the future.

3 gun father son tend to have that impact.

 

[Mags98]

3 gun father son tend to have that impact.

rug = pulled.

 

[poshman]

You are right, but there significant changes to our game which have been clearly evident this season.

I think they are still being bedded down, and will take some time. But it is clear that many of the concerns posters discussed last season just don't exist at the moment: slow starts, transition, indecision, speed of play, depth, scoring.

It was even reported that Davies wore a hat to a preseason training session.

I agree, which is why we won't know where we stand until we are tested under the pressure of finals footy. Significant changes in our footy and the growth of a group of young players who are still not in prime age or games played. We have more improvement to come.

 

[Taylor]

"If they're an absolute gun, maybe three of four points, maybe six at a stretch, but it's nothing more than that," he said.

It's the injuries within games, particularly in key positions like ruck, that massively swing the result.

I suppose that's the risk of the Dogs playing English if his knee gets sore halfway through the first, but he's going to play again eventually.

 

[FreoRicci]

Guessing the coaches and players will be at the game tonight- Collingwood v Hawthorn. Great opportunity to see Hawks for next week

 

[Purple Suit]

Bont is playing in case anybody was hoping he would miss.

 

[wakojako]

So they are almost at full strength...

 

[freo84]

No easy kills in this league.

Tbf we will probably play better knowing they're going to throw the kitchen sink at us.

 

[Kram]

I'm worried about this game.

 

[estibador]

your right 18-4 over the last 22 games doesn't show anything..

Still gotta prove it in the finals if they want to be rated above our 2013 team though.