Review Round 9, 2024 - Adelaide vs. Brisbane Lions

[Gadzorks]

Reville 53% TOG today. He’s shown some really good signs but might need a week off to rest.

Last week reville got a corkie and struggled through the game. Might have still have been carrying it.

Not like we have a stack of players waiting in the twos ATM.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Last week reville got a corkie and struggled through the game. Might have still have been carrying it.

Not like we have a stack of players waiting in the twos ATM.

Wonder why we subbed Prior then if Reville was struggling to run the game out. Could’ve moved Prior to the wing

 

[Gadzorks]

Wonder why we subbed Prior then if Reville was struggling to run the game out. Could’ve moved Prior to the wing

I'm not sold on prior. Seems to be a step or three out of sync.

 

[CarterS]

Morris just seems to have great footy smarts, pops up in the right place at the right time. A really good sign.

 

[Grasshopper17]

This costs us the game. Bookmark it. Should be up by 21.

I'd like to know our success rate from set shots this year

Wod be surprised if it's any higher than 20%

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Andrew Whelan does some great work on his Wheelo ratings site regarding this. He breaks up shots at goal into set shots and general play, and compares expected scores for each. This is our game-by-game breakdown this season:

Round	Score from set shots	Expected score from set shots	+/- expected	Score from general play	Expected score from general play	+/- expected	Total +/- expected
O v Carlton	8-6 (54)	56.6	-2.6	4-4 (28)	25.5	+2.5	-0.1
1 @ Freo	6-4 (40)	46.2	-6.2	4-5 (29)	24.9	+4.1	-2.1
3 v Collingwood	6-1 (37)	23.5	+13.5	4-8 (32)	39.7	-7.7	+5.8
4 v North	10-8 (68)	83.7	-15.7	6-5 (41)	45.9	-4.9	-20.7
5 @ Melbourne	6-4 (40)	45.6	-5.6	6-4 (40)	37.1	+2.9	-2.8
6 v Geelong	2-4 (16)	23.9	-7.9	2-4 (16)	22.7	-6.7	-14.6
7 @ GWS	3-4 (22)	34.3	-12.3	5-5 (35)	36.7	-1.7	-14.1
8 v Gold Coast	6-8 (44)	59.8	-15.8	4-6 (30)	37.6	-7.6	-23.4
9 @ Adelaide	7-6 (48)	50.4	-2.4	6-4 (40)	40.1	-0.1	-2.4
Total	54-45 (369)	424.0	-55.0	41-45 (291)	310.2	-19.2	-74.4

So certainly we do perform more poorly from set shots than in general play, relative to expectations.

Andrew also breaks down shots by distance:

Round	+/- expected 0-15 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 15-30 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 30-40 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 40-50 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 50+ per shot (number of shots)	Total +/- expected per shot (number of shots)
O v Carlton	+1.44 (5)	-2.98 (4)	+1.86 (5)	-0.01 (8)	-1.53 (3)	+0.00 (25)
1 @ Freo	+0.03 (2)	-2.26 (3)	-1.29 (9)	+3.71 (4)	+0.45 (3)	-0.10 (21)
3 v Collingwood	-0.44 (3)	-0.78 (4)	-0.21 (10)	+3.08 (4)	N/A	+0.28 (21)
4 v North	-0.36 (4)	+0.59 (13)	-1.78 (6)	-1.46 (10)	-0.27 (6)	-0.53 (39)
5 @ Melbourne	+1.03 (4)	-0.48 (5)	-0.38 (8)	-0.29 (5)	N/A	-0.13 (22)
6 v Geelong	N/A	-0.46 (5)	-0.04 (5)	-1.90 (4)	-1.51 (3)	-0.86 (17)
7 @ GWS	N/A	+1.31 (9)	-1.93 (6)	-2.33 (4)	-2.49 (2)	-0.67 (21)
8 v Gold Coast	-1.02 (4)	+0.09 (4)	-1.72 (13)	-0.54 (4)	+1.21 (4)	-0.81 (29)
9 @ Adelaide	+1.16 (4)	-0.90 (4)	-1.32 (8)	+0.62 (9)	+0.77 (2)	-0.09 (27)
Average (Total)	+0.67 (26)	-0.20 (51)	-0.90 (70)	-0.05 (52)	-0.35 (23)	-0.30 (222)

So broadly, the bulk of our problems are happening in that 30-40 range, that range where you "really should kick this", but you're far enough out for the seeds of doubt to be planted. That's what seems to be happening. 30-40 is also the range from where we've taken the most shots, so it's not a small sample size issue.

Whatever we are doing at training, one thing is clear: we ain't doing it right and it needs to change. Either our guys are missing them at training and taking that into game day, indicating a technique issue, or they're kicking everything at training, indicating a mindset issue.

Practice does not make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I know someone who is reasonably connected at North Melbourne. Said to him once that King appears to have tremendous insight-his comment “don’t be fooled, it’s all scripted for Kingy”

He's just a mouthpiece for Champion Data most of the time. When he goes off-script is comedy time more often than not.

That all said, the amazing thing is that he's either right or wrong 100% of the time.

 

[martinson]

Wonder why we subbed Prior then if Reville was struggling to run the game out. Could’ve moved Prior to the wing

We also had Morris who to me was clearly done.

Obviously we went like for like but there were other options.

 

[CarterS]

Andrew Whelan does some great work on his Wheelo ratings site regarding this. He breaks up shots at goal into set shots and general play, and compares expected scores for each. This is our game-by-game breakdown this season:

Round	Score from set shots	Expected score from set shots	+/- expected	Score from general play	Expected score from general play	+/- expected	Total +/- expected
O v Carlton	8-6 (54)	56.6	-2.6	4-4 (28)	25.5	+2.5	-0.1
1 @ Freo	6-4 (40)	46.2	-6.2	4-5 (29)	24.9	+4.1	-2.1
3 v Collingwood	6-1 (37)	23.5	+13.5	4-8 (32)	39.7	-7.7	+5.8
4 v North	10-8 (68)	83.7	-15.7	6-5 (41)	45.9	-4.9	-20.7
5 @ Melbourne	6-4 (40)	45.6	-5.6	6-4 (40)	37.1	+2.9	-2.8
6 v Geelong	2-4 (16)	23.9	-7.9	2-4 (16)	22.7	-6.7	-14.6
7 @ GWS	3-4 (22)	34.3	-12.3	5-5 (35)	36.7	-1.7	-14.1
8 v Gold Coast	6-8 (44)	59.8	-15.8	4-6 (30)	37.6	-7.6	-23.4
9 @ Adelaide	7-6 (48)	50.4	-2.4	6-4 (40)	40.1	-0.1	-2.4
Total	54-45 (369)	424.0	-55.0	41-45 (291)	310.2	-19.2	-74.4

So certainly we do perform more poorly from set shots than in general play, relative to expectations.

Andrew also breaks down shots by distance:

Round	+/- expected 0-15 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 15-30 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 30-40 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 40-50 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 50+ per shot (number of shots)	Total +/- expected per shot (number of shots)
O v Carlton	+1.44 (5)	-2.98 (4)	+1.86 (5)	-0.01 (8)	-1.53 (3)	+0.00 (25)
1 @ Freo	+0.03 (2)	-2.26 (3)	-1.29 (9)	+3.71 (4)	+0.45 (3)	-0.10 (21)
3 v Collingwood	-0.44 (3)	-0.78 (4)	-0.21 (10)	+3.08 (4)	N/A	+0.28 (21)
4 v North	-0.36 (4)	+0.59 (13)	-1.78 (6)	-1.46 (10)	-0.27 (6)	-0.53 (39)
5 @ Melbourne	+1.03 (4)	-0.48 (5)	-0.38 (8)	-0.29 (5)	N/A	-0.13 (22)
6 v Geelong	N/A	-0.46 (5)	-0.04 (5)	-1.90 (4)	-1.51 (3)	-0.86 (17)
7 @ GWS	N/A	+1.31 (9)	-1.93 (6)	-2.33 (4)	-2.49 (2)	-0.67 (21)
8 v Gold Coast	-1.02 (4)	+0.09 (4)	-1.72 (13)	-0.54 (4)	+1.21 (4)	-0.81 (29)
9 @ Adelaide	+1.16 (4)	-0.90 (4)	-1.32 (8)	+0.62 (9)	+0.77 (2)	-0.09 (27)
Average (Total)	+0.67 (26)	-0.20 (51)	-0.90 (70)	-0.05 (52)	-0.35 (23)	-0.30 (222)

So broadly, the bulk of our problems are happening in that 30-40 range, that range where you "really should kick this", but you're far enough out for the seeds of doubt to be planted. That's what seems to be happening. 30-40 is also the range from where we've taken the most shots, so it's not a small sample size issue.

Whatever we are doing at training, one thing is clear: we ain't doing it right and it needs to change. Either our guys are missing them at training and taking that into game day, indicating a technique issue, or they're kicking everything at training, indicating a mindset issue.

Practice does not make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.

Great data. Thanks for putting this in.

Re your last sentence- reminds me of this

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...y/news-story/9e0597aa055698f4adbea08bc25a4b06

Can we get him back?!

 

[Clarkythelion]

Strongly disagree, it's an important caveat in managing expectations. The alternative (and existing regular occurrence) is hearing about the same whipping boys after each game, which is already pretty boring.

In psychology there is proof once a person is given a label their behaviour changes as well as those around them. e.g. a naughty child is told they have ADHD, real or not, the child has an excuse for their behaviour and can explain certain actions away as well as their parents change their behaviour as well and just accept certain behaviour, "oh yes that is just their ADHD". That doesn't mean the diagnosis isn't real, just like our injuries are not real, it's the change in behaviours and acceptance of those changes im against.

if the result of every game is, 'we were the underdogs given all the injuries we have', then we accept below standard performances and simply blame the injuries.

 

[ZoBlitz]

I could almost take the constant holding our mids have to deal with at stoppages, if the only holding free the umps paid all game went to Adelaide. I think watching constant "pre-tackling" of players who haven't gained possession of the ball almost annoys me more than the umpires not knowing what the word immediately means.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Being at the Melbourne game and watching Rayner destroy them in the first quarter playing in the middle then not getting the same opportunities in the middle since is perplexing. He is a bull so use him to win clearances.

It really is a mind bender. Rayner should be at as many CB/stoppages as possible where he excels. May as well play McCluggage as a ruck and Andrews as a mid to complete the insanity

 

[martinson]

I could almost take the constant holding our mids have to deal with at stoppages, if the only holding free the umps paid all game went to Adelaide. I think watching constant "pre-tackling" of players who haven't gained possession of the ball almost annoys me more than the umpires not knowing what the word immediately means.

The other thing that annoys me is that minor infringements pre and during marking contests get paid but your gun midfielders around a stoppage are fair game. You restrain someone by grabbing off the contest is a free is it not.

 

[On the quiet]

The worst thing about these footy shows is that they take a selective clip and drive a narrative that that's indicative of the whole game.

Then King says it all falls back on one player who just wants to be a hero and do his own thing or something like that. Well that was definitely not indicative of the whole game. In fact that was a misleading and dare I say nasty thing to say. Every chance to dig the boots into Joe they go for it.

As for the Jaspa thing King goes we could have generated 8 stoppages and just kept falling on the ball. Like Collingwood . With the ball 20 metres out and Oscar rucking ? We don't get the license to fall on the ball like Collingwood does.

Kingy is either stupid and non researched or just looking for a headline.

King seeks a headline. Not sure how much analysing he did post game, as he was on air just after an hour of the game finishing.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Haven't seen the game but looked at the stats - Berry 30 d 1 g and 6 c. Developing into a mid field beast by the looks. Also Lester on 11 d - doesn't look great but stats can be deceiving

 

[luthor]

King suggesting Charlie didn’t pass to Joe because he supposedly didn’t do the reverse earlier is just so ridiculous

Yeah, THAT is totally juvenile from King

Besides, David bloody King can't tell the difference between Joe shooting for goal on the run and him misdirecting an attempted pass to Charlie, which is what he was attempting to do..

King is an idiot.

 

[dlanod]

In psychology there is proof once a person is given a label their behaviour changes as well as those around them. e.g. a naughty child is told they have ADHD, real or not, the child has an excuse for their behaviour and can explain certain actions away as well as their parents change their behaviour as well and just accept certain behaviour, "oh yes that is just their ADHD". That doesn't mean the diagnosis isn't real, just like our injuries are not real, it's the change in behaviours and acceptance of those changes im against.

if the result of every game is, 'we were the underdogs given all the injuries we have', then we accept below standard performances and simply blame the injuries.

So I'm taking this from the point of view that we're a bunch of fans commenting on a sporting team. If we're projecting that we're in the inner sanctum of the club, it's a different story - I don't expect them to be using excuses or justifications. They need to get it going as best they can regardless of the difficulties, that's the point. It doesn't mean we, as external observers, need to put our own heads in the sand with regards to the reality of the situation - we're not the ones running out on to the field despite what some seem to think.

 

[On the quiet]

I was hoping Linc could be covered this year and I like the way Lohmann is going about it. I always thought Dizzy (playing forward) could be covered and whilst Morris did not get many disposals seems to have that forward instinct and kicked a couple.

The position we cannot cover fully is Coleman, but from the one Q he was on the field Brain IMO showed some class.

 

[dlanod]

The other thing that annoys me is that minor infringements pre and during marking contests get paid but your gun midfielders around a stoppage are fair game. You restrain someone by grabbing off the contest is a free is it not.

As long as you don't close your hand or knock a player over, anything goes. You can wrap your arms around them, push an arm across them, etc, all sorts of ways to infringe them that are actually illegal but umpires clearly never call.

 

[luthor]

I liked Jacks game and am a massive advocate for him but was pretty disappointed with his weak effort late against Walker which enabled him to put it on the boot and get it to Rankin to goal late in the goal square. Other than that, Jack is tracking really well for mine.

Two big men travelling at pace and Walker shoved him fair in the middle of the back over the boundary line. Virtually impossible for anyone to stop dead in their tracks, go back and somehow prevent someone of Walker's size getting free access to the pill.

At any other stage of the game at any other venue, it's a free kick

 

[Tom14]

He's just a mouthpiece for Champion Data most of the time. When he goes off-script is comedy time more often than not.

That all said, the amazing thing is that he's either right or wrong 100% of the time.

I gotta take the excuse to link this bit of Kingy genius again:

 

[twhowler]

Incredibly frustrating loss. Because on the whole we played pretty well, and were close to such a significant win - backs against the wall, tough venue, gets us a second win before two much easier games. And from 3 goals up, you should just get it done.

Maybe fatigue set in. Heck of a game last week. Morris seemed done at the end, Reville struggling to get on. So I'm not disappointed in the team (this week at least!) but the result.

Alas

THE GOOD

Hanging Tough - i thought a couple of times we would fall away, especially late in the third quarter. We hung tough, didn't lose spirit.

Twin Towers - Andrews and Payne were just superb in the air. If they can combine in that way - Payne on the best forward, Andrews intercept king - that bodes well for the next few years.

Berry - he kept it simple. Kicked a cracking goal. Worked his guts out. Still not amazing with the ball but his errors seem to hurt us a lot less when he is kicking it forward instead of sideways

Brain - just looked so assured. HTB against him was utterly absurd but he didn't let it bother him at all. Only a small glimpe but he looked borderline best 22 to me, am i over-doing it?

THE BAD

Sub - still don't get having Brain as sub. Prior has hardly been setting the world on fire. Seemed to be like conservative match committee not wanting another debutante.

Those Moments - 2 (?) of Payne's kicks. Harris in slo-mo. Letting the goal out the back after being 3 up. We just needed to hold that lead for a couple of minutes. So disappointing.

Zorko Kick - wasn't great. The lead-up is what bothered we. We spent 2 mins just nobody running, no options, slowly got hemmed in. Seems to happen in away games. Becomes a group mentality.

THE UGLY

McKenna - not a pot at him, i am sure he is trying. He was just woeful yesterday. Kept panicking. I get having a slow start, but he has been back for a few games now, was great last week, so what yesterday was i don't know. If we have any selection integrity he goes back to the 2s. it's as simple as that.

Rayner and Hipwood set shots - both at moments we were really getting on top. Hipwood took a cracking mark for one of them too. 2 contested marks in 1 minute and misses both shots. we could have gone 3-4 goals up. The set shots have just been so bad this year.

The Hope - it's the hope that kills ya.

THE GLASS-HALF FULL I AM ALLOWING MYSELF

If we play that level of footy for the next four games, we are every chance to go to 7 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw. Would be in the 8 i suspect.

It's a pretty even year. The swans clearly the best side right now, but we are not talking Tigers of 19, Cats of 22.

Looking at our outs from ACLs (as in who won't come back in this year)

OUT Gardiner IN Morris. Lad is very young. But much more of a natural forward. Doesn't seem a major downgrade

OUT Coleman IN Zorko. Gee Kiddy is such a jet. But Zorko has been excellent. Not the same level but he is fitter. So it's a downgrade obviously but not as big as i first thought

OUT McCarthy IN Ah Chee. Yes yes one swallow does not a summer make. But could this really be the making of Ah Chee, just gets one role for the rest of the year. He has such good hands and a good shot at goal.

OUT Doedee IN well nobody really given he hasn't played a game, maybe the answer is Lester?

So theoretically at least our ACL victims can be replaced, although Kiddy is the closest to a unique player on that list.

The caveat is that any more injuries are going to be harder to cover because we are already 4 down on depth. So if we can keep healthy from HERE, which includes getting back Bailey, Starcevich and Ashcroft i think we would have the squad that would still be one of the best 5-6 in the comp, providing we have form and confidence.

The biggest X factor is Ashcroft. Does he take long to get back to form? And what level does he get back to this year? Our midfield is crying out for him.

 

[M Malice]

Incredibly frustrating loss. Because on the whole we played pretty well, and were close to such a significant win - backs against the wall, tough venue, gets us a second win before two much easier games. And from 3 goals up, you should just get it done.

Maybe fatigue set in. Heck of a game last week. Morris seemed done at the end, Reville struggling to get on. So I'm not disappointed in the team (this week at least!) but the result.

Alas

THE GOOD

Hanging Tough - i thought a couple of times we would fall away, especially late in the third quarter. We hung tough, didn't lose spirit.

Twin Towers - Andrews and Payne were just superb in the air. If they can combine in that way - Payne on the best forward, Andrews intercept king - that bodes well for the next few years.

Berry - he kept it simple. Kicked a cracking goal. Worked his guts out. Still not amazing with the ball but his errors seem to hurt us a lot less when he is kicking it forward instead of sideways

Brain - just looked so assured. HTB against him was utterly absurd but he didn't let it bother him at all. Only a small glimpe but he looked borderline best 22 to me, am i over-doing it?

THE BAD

Sub - still don't get having Brain as sub. Prior has hardly been setting the world on fire. Seemed to be like conservative match committee not wanting another debutante.

Those Moments - 2 (?) of Payne's kicks. Harris in slo-mo. Letting the goal out the back after being 3 up. We just needed to hold that lead for a couple of minutes. So disappointing.

Zorko Kick - wasn't great. The lead-up is what bothered we. We spent 2 mins just nobody running, no options, slowly got hemmed in. Seems to happen in away games. Becomes a group mentality.

THE UGLY

McKenna - not a pot at him, i am sure he is trying. He was just woeful yesterday. Kept panicking. I get having a slow start, but he has been back for a few games now, was great last week, so what yesterday was i don't know. If we have any selection integrity he goes back to the 2s. it's as simple as that.

Rayner and Hipwood set shots - both at moments we were really getting on top. Hipwood took a cracking mark for one of them too. 2 contested marks in 1 minute and misses both shots. we could have gone 3-4 goals up. The set shots have just been so bad this year.

The Hope - it's the hope that kills ya.

THE GLASS-HALF FULL I AM ALLOWING MYSELF

If we play that level of footy for the next four games, we are every chance to go to 7 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw. Would be in the 8 i suspect.

It's a pretty even year. The swans clearly the best side right now, but we are not talking Tigers of 19, Cats of 22.

Looking at our outs from ACLs (as in who won't come back in this year)

OUT Gardiner IN Morris. Lad is very young. But much more of a natural forward. Doesn't seem a major downgrade

OUT Coleman IN Zorko. Gee Kiddy is such a jet. But Zorko has been excellent. Not the same level but he is fitter. So it's a downgrade obviously but not as big as i first thought

OUT McCarthy IN Ah Chee. Yes yes one swallow does not a summer make. But could this really be the making of Ah Chee, just gets one role for the rest of the year. He has such good hands and a good shot at goal.

OUT Doedee IN well nobody really given he hasn't played a game, maybe the answer is Lester?

So theoretically at least our ACL victims can be replaced, although Kiddy is the closest to a unique player on that list.

The caveat is that any more injuries are going to be harder to cover because we are already 4 down on depth. So if we can keep healthy from HERE, which includes getting back Bailey, Starcevich and Ashcroft i think we would have the squad that would still be one of the best 5-6 in the comp, providing we have form and confidence.

The biggest X factor is Ashcroft. Does he take long to get back to form? And what level does he get back to this year? Our midfield is crying out for him.

I think Will Ashcroft will click into very good form rapidly, he would have been ultra professional with his diligence to the rehab process... he will be firing on all 8 cylinders come finals.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Reading the Crows board it seems that Nicks is despised almost as much as Hinkley.

 

[KissKiss]

Wonder why we subbed Prior then if Reville was struggling to run the game out. Could’ve moved Prior to the wing

I'm not sold on prior. Seems to be a step or three out of sync.

I wasnt sure with Prior as he wasnt shown on tv much at all. He would have been one of my options to sub but it did seem weird later when as others said Bruce and Morris looked very tired. Prior you would have thought could have moved to the wing easier - but noting he didnt look in sync was the same. He just doesnt seem to line up with what other players are about to do well

 

[KissKiss]

Haven't seen the game but looked at the stats - Berry 30 d 1 g and 6 c. Developing into a mid field beast by the looks. Also Lester on 11 d - doesn't look great but stats can be deceiving

Has nothing to do with how often Lester got the ball (its one of the least relevant measures for a key defender) but what happens while defending. Lester got beaten way too often by Fogerty, who played a really good game. It was a poor game by Lester (which doesnt happen often) and shows why he is a concern against the biggest stronger players if Andrews/Payne are missing.