ROUND 9 AFL Bets

[Hotel 6]

A new thread for a new week. I wonder what odds Barry Hall will be to kick the most goals this week. The Swans are playing the Hawks, that means Bazza on Zac

Will the Bombers start favourite against Port Adelaide?

 

[_Ron_]

I bet at the line so i'll have to wait till they release it.

Very interested in the pies/dogs match and demons/eagles match.

 

[Lensen]

Liking Richmond at $3 at the moment.

 

[$tylez]

Sydney paying $7 to be highest scoring team of the round.

- Hawks on the slide, Swans looking the goods
- Hall to dominate against Dawson

Looks solid value.

 

[Sidey_87]

Port the value bet this week.
Will beat Essendon.

 

[eastaugh36]

Get on Essendon! I've already put $100 on us and will probably go more. Best bet of the round.

 

[Dingster]

Get on Essendon! I've already put $100 on us and will probably go more. Best bet of the round.

I think so too. Port were unbelievably bad and will probably be missing a couple with injuries. Essendon should flog them in Melbourne. Wire to wire @ $2.55.

 

[PLSC]

chad cornes and peter burgoyne out, treadrea playing crap

essendon must win

 

[Borgsta]

What do you think of Adelaide this week?

I just signed up to Sportingbet and have a $100 free bet. I figure Adelaide are an absolute lock so thats the safest bet.

 

[juzza316]

What do you think of Adelaide this week?

I just signed up to Sportingbet and have a $100 free bet. I figure Adelaide are an absolute lock so thats the safest bet.

Adelaide are paying $1.09 on sportingbet, therefore if (when) they win, you will only get $9 credited to your account. Hardly worth it, might need to try something that pays a little more.

 

[JuddyisGod]

What do you think of Adelaide this week?

I just signed up to Sportingbet and have a $100 free bet. I figure Adelaide are an absolute lock so thats the safest bet.

how do you get the free $100 bet?

 

[JuddyisGod]

anyone think the Bulldogs are value at $3.20?

I reckon Richmond with all the supposed infighting at Geelong aren't to bad of value at $4 either.

 

[cooperjai]

What do you think of Adelaide this week?

I just signed up to Sportingbet and have a $100 free bet. I figure Adelaide are an absolute lock so thats the safest bet.

play a MULTI with say Adelaide, St.Kilda and Sydney and that will bring it out to 1.80.
With the free bet if you win you don't keep the $100 they gave you, only what you win.

 

[understudy]

Get on Essendon! I've already put $100 on us and will probably go more. Best bet of the round.

Is your name Adam White? Blokes an Essedon supporter, on sport 927 all the time talking the bombers up all year and must have lost a fortune.

Also has been on sport 927 breakfeast this week and this morning he comes out with Collingwood will definintely not make the top 4

Thursdays at around 11pm sport 927, talking footy punting for the upcoming round, not a bad show that, anyone listen to it?

 

[understudy]

anyone think the Bulldogs are value at $3.20?

Yep good value but still dont like their chances.

 

[Borgsta]

Adelaide are paying $1.09 on sportingbet, therefore if (when) they win, you will only get $9 credited to your account. Hardly worth it, might need to try something that pays a little more.

Ah you only keep the winnings. I see I thought you kept the whole thing. Thanks, I will do another game.

 

[Borgsta]

Yep good value but still dont like their chances.

Agreed, if I was going to put money on the dogs, Id do a line bet.

 

[eastaugh36]

Is your name Adam White? Blokes an Essedon supporter, on sport 927 all the time talking the bombers up all year and must have lost a fortune.

Also has been on sport 927 breakfeast this week and this morning he comes out with Collingwood will definintely not make the top 4

Thursdays at around 11pm sport 927, talking footy punting for the upcoming round, not a bad show that, anyone listen to it?

Nah, but I'm far from a person to talk us up. I've tipped every Essendon result right this year bar the Richmond game. I know my team.
BTW, I took Collingwood at $15 for the flag about 5 weeks ago.

 

[Harvey Leadpipe]

I'll be taking:

Adelaide -45.5
Sydney -22.5
St.Kilda
West Coast

@ $6.16

 

[Hotel 6]

I think that the Blues are a great chance at the line of 45.5.

Last year the Crows took all day to shake the Blues and finally won by 14 points (71 to 57). The year before the Blues kicked 7 goals to 2 in the last quarter and won 91 to 87. I reckon this will be a low scoring game and I'd be surprised if the Crows could kick a huge score against the Blues. I don't think the Blues will score much over 50 but can the Crows get to 100 if they do?

I think I will take the Swans ($1.32) to win into the Blues (+44.5) ($1.91) into Geelong ($1.31) and West Coast ($1.33) or $4.39 for each dollar.

I will also be taking the above into Freo at ($2.30), dragging the odds to a touch over $10.00.

 

[The Dice Man]

Barry Hall is now at $13 for Highest Goalscorer for the round. Just put a fiver down on him for a return of $65.

 

[nicho_magic]

not sure of who i'll get on this week, but considering a few selections...
sydney are a certainty
as are adelaide and a few others so i'll probably throw them all in together
haven't looked to closely yet tho

 

[hawker21]

Heres my preview for tonights match.

Preview
Tonights match features by far the 2 most exciting teams in the competition right now. They both play attacking running footy and are the highest scoring teams in the competition. Collingwood take the balls out the wings and feed it in to their big gun forwards while the Doggies go a bit more agressive riskier style taking it straight up the guts.

Both teams are very dangerous once up forward with a very big conversion rate once inside 50 and the dogs have giansiracusa leading the league with most goals assists on 22 and pies have tarrant and didak equal second with 19.

Collingwood currently placed nicely with 6 wins and just the 2 losses against the two top sides in Adelaide and West Coast though most of their losses have came against bottom sides they have been very impressive. They keep getting better and better and won by 102 points last week as slight underdogs vs Geelong. They have been playing very attacking footy ever since Round 2 averagin a massive 126 points a game,

The Western Bulldogs are coming of a 26 point loss to Sydney last week and have lost 3 of their last 4 games all against quality opposition Adelaide, Sydney and St Kilda. They do play a very FREE flowing brand of footy but the points do seem to dry up a little against the top 8 sides especially when not playing at the Telstra Dome.

Last time these 2 teams met The bulldogs were 1.09 favourites how things have changed since then. Collingwood come into this one as 1.35 favourites to the Bulldogs 3.40 which doesnt reflect on how well the bulldogs can play and dont deserve to be this bigger underdogs.

This year at the MCG Pies have been dominating with their 102 point win over Geelong last weeked aswell as a win over Carlton by 72 and Essendon by 17.

The Dogs havent played at the MCG this year but in the past they have been able to keep their games reasonably competitive their.

This really should be an exciting game to watch and although I think that Dogs are the value at the H2H odds I think its going to be a close game and will go with the more inform team of late the pies by the 1-39 margin

1 unit Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.40



As usual on a friday night I also assess the high goalscorer and most possesions where I have found it very hard in finding value in tonights match between 2 very free flowing teams.

High Goalscorer Value
Both these teams share the goals around so much that it is hard to pick a winner in these markets.

For colligwood, definately couldnt say Tarrant, he will get his 4 or 5 every now and then but produces so many 0s aswell. Seems to dish alot of due to his inaccurate kicking.

Didak will often chip in with 3 or 4 and a fe the dogs in Johnson, Murphy and Robbins are always capable of their 3 or 4.

Though I think i will stick with someone a bit more consistent in Rocca. He has kicked 3 or more 5 times in 8 matches this year including an 8, 5 and 4.

Value: Anthony Rocca $4.50

Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( west 2.75, buckley 5.50, obree 5.50, licuria 7.00, holland 8.00, cross 8.00, giansiracusa 8.00, gilbee 8.00 )

To win most disposals tonight you will need atleast 30 possies with so much ree flowing flooty there should be plenty high possession winners. Holland, Cross and Gilbee are always consistent to get near the 20s but dont think they can get enough for tonight.

Both Giansiracusa and O Bree are having fantastic seasons for their clubs both really lifting it a notch and could well be up their at the end of the game but in the past havent really played well against this opposition.

Licuria is having a quiet season by his standards consistently getting his low 20s but at one stage in his career you couldnt back against him in most possesion contests. Last 2 times vs the bulldogs he has racked up 35 and 28 possesions so it will be interesting to see if he lifts again tonight.

Of course you can never go against Scotty West either, mr consistent so it would seem week in week out getting 30 odd. He is averaging 26 possies a game this year but surprisingly only 21 in losses. Last time vs the Pies he did record a massive 36 possesions though and definately deserves to be the hot favourite every time he lines up on that field.

There is noone in this lot that is massive value this week but im gonna give the value to Buckley at $5.50. He might not be in his best form of his life but still playing good footy. He is averaging 23 possies a game this year and coming off a 29 possesion game last week. He has a very good record against the dogs and many times has got between 30-40 possesions in a game against them.

Value: Nathan Buckley $5.50

 

[johnnyhoward]

The Doggies were a value bet I took tonight and I was actually expecting them to lose. They will, but I'll move onto the other games this week.

Looks like a good week for betting. I'm on the Demons to cover the line, the Tigers, Essendon 40+ and Fremantle.

 

[nicho_magic]

ok so my bets are done and dusted, another week another 5 dollar outlay, another big multi.

i've taken
sydney to win
geelong to win
brisbane/brisbane
ess/ess/ess/ess

pays something like 8.63. for 43 or so dollars. go the bombers, our first win since rd 2 coming up i hope.