Trades Round 9 Trades

Chris99

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Alright guys, I'm back with a (hopefully) easier table to read. This is all based around Midfielders and Wingman. Essentially the teams at the top of the table in green, have good runs, whilst those at the bottom have tough runs. I've backed these stats on the amount of ranking points each team gives up to midfielders, I know not a great correlation, but the only data that was available to a pleb like myself. If you still don't really get it, give one of these a read, i wrote these a couple of years ago. I've decided to not write for DT Talk this year and just keep it to the BF Clan! <3 (https://www.dreamteamtalk.com/2017/05/11/the-next-four-round-8/comment-page-1/ , https://dreamteamtalk.com/2018/05/24/the-next-four-rounds-10-14/ )

Anyway, attached is the run for midfielders/wingers next four matches and their run after round 14. I have a teams fantasy finals run for those interested in league match ups, let me know.

1557882169588.png

This is really making me consider Mitch Duncan, quite clearly has an unbelievable run to the end of the season, and geelong are dominating. Can this continue? The Pig is an obvious candidate for the next four matches and should score very well without wines in the team. Concerning for Angus Brayshaw as he has a horror month ahead facing WCE, GWS, ADEL and COLL. Whitfield will be a target for me in the coming weeks as his run after the bye is too good. We can also use it on deciding which cash cows to keep and trade! Holding Duursma/Drew are almost a certainty whilst Jack Ross' replacement should also be in trade plans this week, with their next 4 run.

Would love to hear your thoughts, any question hit me up! Hope this helps you as much as it did for my trades (Ross -> Rocky)
 

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browncow

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what does everyone think of

Miers to Moore
Ross to Rockliff
Personally, there is no way I am trading Miers yet. Coming off three scores in the 90’s and a BE in the 30’s.
Still has cash to make and is a perfect F6 at this point in time.

Where does he sit on your field and who will take his place?
 

Sloane4brownlow

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I told people not to start Macrae. You cant expect any player to back up a performance like last years. Thats basically like expecting them to be Titch. Always bet against that happening. Best case scenario of getting Macrae was he holds at his level and you break even on value. Worst case is this. I was encouraging starting Grundy (as your C) instead of him. Sorry, not trying to piss on your parade, just saying :p
Rough to stick the boot in, hindsight is a beautiful thing haha!

I started with Macrae and no regrets. Will still be a keeper regardless so saves a trade (silver lining).

Macrae was never going to make money but if he came out averaging 120+ again the comp wouldve been seperated into teams with macrae and teams without (same as last year).

With Titch out he was the must-get.

As it turns out. No one is and everyones crap this year.
 

bol316

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Rough to stick the boot in, hindsight is a beautiful thing haha!

I started with Macrae and no regrets. Will still be a keeper regardless so saves a trade (silver lining).

Macrae was never going to make money but if he came out averaging 120+ again the comp wouldve been seperated into teams with macrae and teams without (same as last year).

With Titch out he was the must-get.

As it turns out. No one is and everyones crap this year.
Why would having him at 891K averaging 120 make those teams stand out? For 891K he's SUPPOSED to be averaging that just to hit value. Give me a handful of guys who outplay their cost over that any day. The key to winning fantasy isn't to just start with the highest scoring player, its to get the best value for your money. There were too many midfield choices and Grundy was such a standout ruck choice (averaging pretty much the same as well). Grundy was clearly a better starting choice, as a captain pick. He had no one else to compete with on his team. Always gotta remember that non-ruck players don't have that same sort of "vacuum" to play in
 

Corby_4

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Why would having him at 891K averaging 120 make those teams stand out? For 891K he's SUPPOSED to be averaging that just to hit value. Give me a handful of guys who outplay their cost over that any day. The key to winning fantasy isn't to just start with the highest scoring player, its to get the best value for your money. There were too many midfield choices and Grundy was such a standout ruck choice (averaging pretty much the same as well). Grundy was clearly a better starting choice, as a captain pick. He had no one else to compete with on his team. Always gotta remember that non-ruck players don't have that same sort of "vacuum" to play in
"Value" doesn't get you a high overall rank or win you league match-ups (as evident).
You can't have a team full of value picks and expect to run with the higher ranked teams.
Yes it may be good for your team long term but by that stage you're well off the pace and chasing someone like Crae if he maintains that average and you're chasing 300k+ off the bat to upgrade someone to him.
A gun pick on each line is all but minimum and leading into the season Crae was the out and out pick of the mids going on form (without Titch).
 
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Was pretty set on rozee to bench rookie (Young if named) and Duursma to j kelly

But having second thoughts now as I’m not comfortable fielding drew

Now rozee to corbett (bench)
Drew to Dunkley

Leaves me with no forward rookies on field but 2 mid rookies and Corbett for cash gen

Or get kelly and leaves Hayes mid rookie and drew forward on field
 

bol316

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"Value" doesn't get you a high overall rank or win you league match-ups (as evident).
You can't have a team full of value picks and expect to run with the higher ranked teams.
Yes it may be good for your team long term but by that stage you're well off the pace and chasing someone like Crae if he maintains that average and you're chasing 300k+ off the bat to upgrade someone to him.
A gun pick on each line is all but minimum and leading into the season Crae was the out and out pick of the mids going on form (without Titch).
So if i had started with Grundy/Neale/Sloane/Whitfield/Rocky/Boak (just grouping together some players that have outplayed their initial cost), I wouldn't most likely be competing with top tier teams?! How do you figure that? I fail to see what people don't understand about this. All season long i see the same people who argue against this go back-and-forth about when to bring in a certain premium because they are trying to figure out when their cost will bottom out (making MY argument)
 

Corby_4

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So if i had started with Grundy/Neale/Sloane/Whitfield/Rocky/Boak (just grouping together some players that have outplayed their initial cost), I wouldn't most likely be competing with top tier teams?! How do you figure that? I fail to see what people don't understand about this. All season long i see the same people who argue against this go back-and-forth about when to bring in a certain premium because they are trying to figure out when their cost will bottom out (making MY argument)
Grundy for one hasn't outscored his initial cost.
Fair point on the others but it's a crystal ball scenario.
What I am saying is you can't preach a team full of questionable value picks, which a lot of them were i.e Sloane tag, Rocky role etc. and expect them all to come off.
Season proper trades which you're referring to are a different kettle of fish than selecting a team for round 1 (the Crae dilemma).
 
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Doggies7

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We aren't expecting Young from the Saints to be a good scorer are we? His VFL stats look really poor DT wise and looks likely to play a small / pressure fwd role I think?
 
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Such a hard week to downgrade rookies.

out of

CLARK
DREW

who gets the chop and to who? im thinking Drew to one of the hawthorn forwards? or even Ham?
 

burge13

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Newnes (can't believe I fell for this again) out. Is Walsh worth holding a week?

Likely Dunkley in but Rocky is so tempting. Tough decisions to be made Friday

Is Dunk more chance at top 6 FWD than Rock is top 8 MID??
 
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Grundy for one hasn't outscored his initial cost.
Fair point on the others but it's a crystal ball scenario.
What I am saying is you can't preach a team full of questionable value picks, which a lot of them were i.e Sloane tag, Rocky role etc. and expect them all to come off.
Season proper trades which you're referring to are a different kettle of fish than selecting a team for round 1 (the Crae dilemma).
I actually think this year was one of the few if not only year where bulk value picks actually could have paid off. Usually I would agree that you need the best on the line. But this year there was so much value in the mids.

Rocky, Zerrett, Taranto, M Crouch, Liberatore (did his job now trade) were all widely selected.
Harder to pick but there was also Sloane, Fiorini, Bontempelli, Neale.

Add to that Williams and Smith down back and Boak and Kelly forward. And Phillips/OBrien who could have got you adequately through as second ruck. If you nailed them all you could easily have not selected Macrae.

But yes all hindsight and crystal ball especially picking a captain. Because last year if you didn't pick Titch you were so far behind after 3 weeks by not captaining him.
 

PAFC27

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Who do you think will average more until their bye, B Smith or Walsh?
Great question! Both players I will be looking to move on over this coming fortnight!

Brodie Smith: Fantastic player, and has been doing alright in fantasy as well. Brodie is averaging 83, more than he has ever averaged. Crows have seen an uptick in disposals as of late, which actually hasn't helped his score much, either. Now consider this; Luke Brown came in last week and took away some of his kick ins, and points in the defensive half. This week, and certainly next week - Seedsman, Milera and Gibbs (playing defensive role) will all return to the senior side. More points to share around. Throw in Brisbane this week, who were the most points restrictive team last week, as well as West Coast and Giants in the 3 weeks following. At an 80 breakeven, I think Brodie Smith begins to lose money this week, and begins to free fall the week after.

Sam Walsh: won't waffle on too much here. High breakeven and a tough match up incoming, if BYE structure allows it and there's no other more pressing issues...it's not a huge jump to get to that bona fide 120+ premium.

At the moment, I'll be trading Sam Walsh this weeks then Brodie Smith the next. If their breakevens were closer together, I'd cut Smith first though.
 

kozi

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Great question! Both players I will be looking to move on over this coming fortnight!

Brodie Smith: Fantastic player, and has been doing alright in fantasy as well. Brodie is averaging 83, more than he has ever averaged. Crows have seen an uptick in disposals as of late, which actually hasn't helped his score much, either. Now consider this; Luke Brown came in last week and took away some of his kick ins, and points in the defensive half. This week, and certainly next week - Seedsman, Milera and Gibbs (playing defensive role) will all return to the senior side. More points to share around. Throw in Brisbane this week, who were the most points restrictive team last week, as well as West Coast and Giants in the 3 weeks following. At an 80 breakeven, I think Brodie Smith begins to lose money this week, and begins to free fall the week after.

Sam Walsh: won't waffle on too much here. High breakeven and a tough match up incoming, if BYE structure allows it and there's no other more pressing issues...it's not a huge jump to get to that bona fide 120+ premium.

At the moment, I'll be trading Sam Walsh this weeks then Brodie Smith the next. If their breakevens were closer together, I'd cut Smith first though.
The decider would normally be bye round, price and BE however they have the same bye and after this round price and BE could be near identical. Both will go but I’m still undecided on who goes first.
 

PAFC27

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The decider would normally be bye round, price and BE however they have the same bye and after this round price and BE could be near identical. Both will go but I’m still undecided on who goes first.
I think they're both as bad as each other. So I just have to take the breakevens for what they are and maintain the most value. Respect to the kid, but Sam your time is up!
 

Sloane4brownlow

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Why would having him at 891K averaging 120 make those teams stand out? For 891K he's SUPPOSED to be averaging that just to hit value. Give me a handful of guys who outplay their cost over that any day. The key to winning fantasy isn't to just start with the highest scoring player, its to get the best value for your money. There were too many midfield choices and Grundy was such a standout ruck choice (averaging pretty much the same as well). Grundy was clearly a better starting choice, as a captain pick. He had no one else to compete with on his team. Always gotta remember that non-ruck players don't have that same sort of "vacuum" to play in
Namely for his captaincy. He blew the competition away last year. It took all of 3-4weeks early last year to eliminate any non-macrae teams from contention from the car. He was unrivaled in his consistency and scoring power.

In my opinion he was the best chance this year to be that Titch type of captain you an lock and leave for a safe 115-120+ average.

It hasn't turned out that way. But I stand by the fact it was riskier not to start him.

The worst case scenario (which is what I'm in now) was always going to be he drops down to human levels averaging 100-110, plus drops 100-200k. Even in this scenario I've saved a trade by starting with him.

Because lets face it...EVERYONE is going to want Macrae regardless at some point. So in 1-2 weeks with Macrae pops up as a 'must get' I'll already have him, and cash a cow instead to get that lost cash straight back. Nett difference negligible.
 
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