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Round 9

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Borgsta said:
how can you say Mzungu is a top 21 player?
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I am confident he is in the top 25. Has great skills, good endurance, played very well pre-season. Even if you take him out you could add in Crowley from the 25, who has been a regular in the 21.
 
Cats - 14.5 into Collingwood -30.5 @ $2.69

Think this will be my big bet this week. Pretty confident on this.

Might reel in the points a bit

Cats - 9.5 into Colllingwood -26.5 @ $2.27 to make it a bit surer.
 
Worked out my Friday night bet.

Geelong by 1-24 @ 3.5 or 1-39 @ 2.20

The reason being:

1. Geelong should win. They're the better team.

2. Geelong have the best defence in the AFL conceding just 63.3 points per game. Carlton are 3rd best conceding 78.3.

Geelong are 10th best offensively (92.7) and Carlton are 6th (97.7).

So we're talking a low scoring game. Low scoring = more likely to be close.

The downside is that it's at Etihad, where teams tend to score a lot. So far this year Carlton have played there twice and kept it to close games. Geelong haven't played there this season but last season it was anything but close.

I'm hoping Geelong has a new style under Scott. They are conceding about 14 less points per game and scoring about 22 less so I'm happy enough.
 
Both of Geelong's for and against tallies are somewhat skewed by two low scoring games in wet, windy conditions at the MCG (last week and St Kilda round 1) - if the conditions had been better, Geelong might have kicked 30 goals against Collingwood for all our inside 50s. I wouldn't assume at all that it will be low scoring - I'd be shocked if the winning team scored less than 15 goals at Etihad.
 

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if geelong has their full teams (with Ling and Otten) they will smash Carlton cos they will play this game to pay tribute to their legend Davis...
 
STC said:
Both of Geelong's for and against tallies are somewhat skewed by two low scoring games in wet, windy conditions at the MCG (last week and St Kilda round 1) - if the conditions had been better, Geelong might have kicked 30 goals against Collingwood for all our inside 50s. I wouldn't assume at all that it will be low scoring - I'd be shocked if the winning team scored less than 15 goals at Etihad.
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They also had the wet game at the SCG against the Swans.
 
This will be one of the hardest tipping rounds of the year.

My initial thoughts (without seeing the teams):
Carlton v Geelong – Geelong
Geelong have not lost to Carlton at Etihad Stadium since it was built.
The closest the Blues have got since 2004 is 42 points.

Likely Bet: Cats at the line

St Kilda v Melbourne – Saints
No Jamar, no Melbourne. Made to look second rate against North Melbourne.
Saints in a massive form slump but get Montagna back.

Likely Bet: Saints 1-39

Port Adelaide v Freo – Fremantle
Freo have a long injury list. Port have shown no signs all year.
Freo just.

Likely Bet: Two of the most dysfunctional teams in the league - No Play

Lions v Roos – Lions
Only if Brown is back. Adds the forward focal point that the Lions are lacking. Whilst the Lions have been losing, they haven't been disgraceful.
North have not beaten the Lions at the Gabba since 2005.

Likely Bet: Lions +24.5

Richmond v Essendon – Richmond
No Watson, No Essendon. I think it will be very close though.

Likely Bet: Tigers +24.5

Pies v Crows – Pies
Trying to make a case for the Crows. I can't.
(Edit: Okay, well the Crows have beaten the Pies last 3 times they've played at Etihad)

Likely Bet: No play

Sydney v Hawthorn – Sydney
Hawks haven't won at the SCG since 2003. It will be very close.
Watch for the team sheets – if Rioli plays, I may change my tip (yes, he's that good).
The lack of key defenders and ruckmen should hurt the Hawks.

Likely Bet: Either side under 24.5

WCE v Bulldogs – WCE
This will be another close game. Watch for the team sheets. Too much uncertainty with Kerr, Embley, Higgins, Hall etc. still iffy on playing.

Likely Bet: Wait and see
 
mike262 said:
Friday night crowd over/under 47000?

people may go to pay tribute to Bob Davis, could boost the attendance.
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Is there a bet for this option. They are expecting a full house. Might be worth puting over 50,000 and hope to hell the medallian club members turn up.
 
What do you guys think of the race to 25 points in the Essendon/Richmond game @ 1.6 for Essendon.
Richmond have been very slow getting out of the blocks this year only being the first to 25 points once this year and that was against Fremantle who were very waistful.
 

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mike262 said:
now at 48500
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its the first friday night etihad match of the season, so no recent data to go on, we have to go all the way back to round 3 last year for the last time it went over, 49669 Collingwood vs St Kilda

recent h2h matches at etihad have been around 46k

under normal circumstances i would be confident in the under, with Bobby Davis death i am not too sure.
 
twarby said:
i am going to use my powers to get it closer to 50, and then i will hit the under
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Tinfoil hats at the ready.

ok so I read whirlpool, you've put up a dink warning, ie check private forum, which I'm not a member of, then posted that you are hitting the crowd overs big, then all the main whirlpool guys post saying they are tailing for big units. Now you say this here, I'm guessing you are playing the whirlpool lurkers to get a higher line?

Or am I looking too deep for a conspiracy?
 
More likely he's playing you! A double-double agent!
 

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laam said:
Tinfoil hats at the ready.

ok so I read whirlpool, you've put up a dink warning, ie check private forum, which I'm not a member of, then posted that you are hitting the crowd overs big, then all the main whirlpool guys post saying they are tailing for big units. Now you say this here, I'm guessing you are playing the whirlpool lurkers to get a higher line?

Or am I looking too deep for a conspiracy?
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Hello Agent Mahone

another lurker to add to the tally
 
twarby said:
Hello Agent Mahone

another lurker to add to the tally
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:thumbsu: afraid so, don't like the layout there though, rather the layout here with different threads for everything, good luck with it though, lol, agree that it's too high though, especially for a geelong game on a friday night, difficult for most of the locals to get to melbourne for friday night games. It is a Carlton home game so this factor wont be as big, but still. Don't think I'll play though.
 
Geelong H2H
St. Kilda H2H
Sydney H2H
West Coast H2H
= $6.5

Thinking of doing a soho and throwing the bank on it
 
KardiniaPark said:
Yeah Essendon look ripe for the picking this week. It will be a 20+ point start for the tigers? That will do me.
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Yep I have a CB account only for the pick your own line feature (refuse to bet with them after they dont multi but anyway thats another issue) and I put $100 head Rich at $3 $200 line 17.5 $1.92 and $1000 45.5 $1.26 Theres risk in everything but I havent dropped 1 of my big outlays this year so am miles up even if i did and i cant see an injury plagued essendon beating them by that much
 
bisazc887 said:
Yep I have a CB account only for the pick your own line feature (refuse to bet with them after they dont multi but anyway thats another issue) and I put $100 head Rich at $3 $200 line 17.5 $1.92 and $1000 45.5 $1.26 Theres risk in everything but I havent dropped 1 of my big outlays this year so am miles up even if i did and i cant see an injury plagued essendon beating them by that much
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Should get on the back of Brisbane at home this week with a 6 goal head start as well.
 
taking it easy this week guys, got some other things on the go...

looking for a $2 lock, any suggestions?

carlton line?
adelaide line?
pies 1-39?
freo line?
 

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