Round 9

[carpsi]

Do Kick ins count as a disposal?

No. Only if they kick it to themselves first

 

[carpsi]

You could make a case for choosing both Armitage or Frawley.
But the way I see it, Frawley will be playing Riewoldt and I think he'll be buggered from chasing Roo, that he won't off much going forward (unless they chip it around the back-line), and Armitage, he had a down week against Hawthorn (having 9 in the first qtr, but went missing as did the whole team after qtr time only having 4 more). Before that he had 26 against Adelaide and 23 against Carlton.
I'd be backing Armo this time around.

Also love $4 on Johnno Brown for most goals against North. North is his bitch kicking 8 last time around.

No he didnt

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Geelong WIN
St.Kilda WIN
Sydney +24.5
West Coast +24.5
@ $3.03

 

[DT_35]

Sorry kicked 3 goals 3. Time before that he kicked 8, late in 2009..

 

[Hucky]

Corey is averaging 25.0 this season (26.75 home, 22.0 away). He averages 29.85 at Etihad and 27.3 against Carlton.

Carrazzo is averaging 22.4 this season (23 home, 22 away). He averages 23 at Etihad and 27 against Geelong.

This is only going back 3-4 seasons.

 

[laam]

Ok so my bets for this round at this stage

Richmond over essendon 1u @ 3
thought the odds were good considering essendons outs

Brisbane over north 1u @ 2.05
playing in brisbane and have brown back, north are nothing special

west coast over bulldogs 1u @ 1.81
have been in excellent form and cant see the dogs winning in perth

geelong and saints win 1u @ 2.22
geelong should account for carlton at ettihad and surely saints cant lose to melbourne

friday night crowd < 51000 2u @ 1.95
ok so I did decide to play this after they moved the line up to 51000, that would be a huge crowd for ettihad

kelly over corey in DT 2u @ 1.83
kelly has won this 5/7 times this year

Sylvia over goddard in DT 2u @ 1.95
huge average and median difference between these two, sylvia in excellent form, goddard in pretty average form

armitage over frawley in possessions 1u @ 1.8
think your onto something TRS

nahas over howlett in DT 1u @ 1.8
superior average and nahas is in amazing form

adcock over swallow in DT 1u @ 1.8
adcocks last 3 over 90 and swallow hasnt cracked 90 for the last 3

boak over broughton in DT 2u @ 1.7
both underachievers this year, but nothing compares to how much broughton is stinking up my teams backline. big average difference as well

I wish sporting allowed multies for DT head to heads then I may have taken some of the short priced favs.

 

[Resarenco]

Hi everyone

I lost money on Collingwood last week, a bit unlucky considering the umpiring controversy it caused this week. So far this season i am am up $1300. I feel that it has started to get harder to pick good betting matches recently compared with earlier in the season.

I have watched carlton play a few times this season. They are a good team no doubt but I feel that there win loss record is a little inflated and so a bit indicative for the match against geelong. I am going to say Geelong by 3 or 4 goals.

St Kilda should beat melbourne but wouldn't trust them.

I understand why people say brisbane should beat North Melbourne but unless you want to take a 50/50 chance I wouldn't be putting money on it. I don't know how anyone can justify putting money on a team that hasn't won a game after playing 7 games.

Richmond Vs Essendon match is an interesting one. If watson was playing i think Essendon would be great value, he isn't which means depending on how well richmond play they could upset Essendon this week. I wont be surprised if Essendon continue on the merry way but I wont be putting money on that game as I haven't watched richmond enough this season.

Hawthorn could be good value if you want to take a 50/50 chance. If Carlton can beat sydney I don't see why Hawthorn can't. Of course Hawthorn isn't as reliable as some other teams.

 

[Bic]

Geelong is as square as it gets.

Carlton by 17.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

No he didnt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Chhby5K95HE#t=1m08s

Haha, it had to be done.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Sorry kicked 3 goals 3. Time before that he kicked 8, late in 2009..

You do realise its forecast to rain ALL Night, he has lost quite a bit of weight & is 1st up from 2 months off--& i know he was good back in 2008 after a spell but this is a different injury & he's older now....not a great value bet i reckon @ $4

This Bris side that has twice as many "boys" as NM.

 

[jamesmac23]

Pods MGS tomorrow night @7s

 

[Mudeo]

Corey is averaging 25.0 this season (26.75 home, 22.0 away). He averages 29.85 at Etihad and 27.3 against Carlton.

Carrazzo is averaging 22.4 this season (23 home, 22 away). He averages 23 at Etihad and 27 against Geelong.

This is only going back 3-4 seasons.

Cheers he also has lead the games in disposals between these 2 teams twice with numbers in the 30's. Only paying $2.9 tho in a market that is low percentage.

 

[The Big Woofer]

There is significant value in lowest score of the round this week.

I am taking a spread of the games going to be badly affected by weather:

Brisbane $21
North Melbourne $21

Love the Bris one in particular, this game should be tight & close, a competitive game could easily lend itself to a real low score in wet.

Fremantle $26
Port $10

I don't like Melb for this given Stk hasn't really been a lock down team this year & even though melb hopeless at dome the conditions are perfect.

Adl will probably get belted by coll but they go ok at the dome & if game is a blow out & the sting goes out of the game Adl will get some cheap goals.

 

[spudmaster]

There is significant value in lowest score of the round this week.

I am taking a spread of the games going to be badly affected by weather:

Brisbane $21
North Melbourne $21

Love the Bris one in particular, this game should be tight & close, a competitive game could easily lend itself to a real low score in wet.

Fremantle $26
Port $10

I don't like Melb for this given Stk hasn't really been a lock down team this year & even though melb hopeless at dome the conditions are perfect.

Adl will probably get belted by coll but they go ok at the dome & if game is a blow out & the sting goes out of the game Adl will get some cheap goals.

The Sydney-Hawks game concerns me a bit, that the loser may not score highly at all.

I can see the rationale with Brisbane or North not likely to score highly because neither side are that good this year, but at the same time, bottom sides are generally pretty light on defensiveness wise and leak goals like no tomorrow, so it can be a lot of one way traffic. Not taking a dig here at the Dogs or Tigers, but I think last weeks match between the two sides was a classic example - a huge scoring match but largely as a result of both sides perhaps not having yet developed their defensive structures to the necessary level, as opposed to both sides having ridiculously good offensive setups.

Blowout matches are a nuisance as well, as sometimes teams take their foot off the accelerator and start resting and allow the team behind to sneak some easy goals - heck, last week we had kept the Saints to 3 goals for the final 3 quarters of the match but they snuck in 2 quickies in the final 2 minutes of the game, and those extra 12points might hurt.

Port have been coughing up huge deficits in the final quarter, but Freo are riddled with injuries?

If it rains at the SCG on Sunday, and the Swans win, I can see it being a very low scoring affair and they play defensively at the best of times - Hawks a chance to low score maybe?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Cheers he also has lead the games in disposals between these 2 teams twice with numbers in the 30's. Only paying $2.9 tho in a market that is low percentage.

Hes $6 with TAB but hes against Judd, Selwood etc...

 

[Trojan Pies]

Geelong WIN
St.Kilda WIN
Sydney +24.5
West Coast +24.5
@ $3.03

Like this one Big Thing good multi with inbuilt security. On it.

 

[Lensen]

1.5 units S.Johnson most goals tonight @ $13

 

[Trojan Pies]

Hi everyone

Hawthorn could be good value if you want to take a 50/50 chance. If Carlton can beat sydney I don't see why Hawthorn can't. Of course Hawthorn isn't as reliable as some other teams.

Welcome aboard friend.

Reasons Hawks are currently weaker than Carlton - back line, back line and back line.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Stkilda
Brisbane
Richmond
West Coast
@$12.84

 

[adii_7]

i found a mistake with the my match & the lowest scores for the round

totalling in .09c profit per $1

 

[Nothing]

i found a mistake with the my match & the lowest scores for the round

totalling in .09c profit per $1

That's great but without sharing it's worthless to us

 

[Smear]

my bets for tonight:

Geelong H2H,
sydney +24.5,
west coast 1-39
2u@ approx $3.60

First half margin:
Geelong 13-24 3u@ $5.00

Geelong H2H 5u@ $1.44

Most goals:
S.Johnson 2u@ $13.00

Most possesions group B:
A.Carrazzo 2u@ 6.50

First Goalscorer:
J.Podsiadly 2u@ 10.00

Thats what i've got for tonight planning some more for the weekend

 

[Smear]

Corey is averaging 25.0 this season (26.75 home, 22.0 away). He averages 29.85 at Etihad and 27.3 against Carlton.

Carrazzo is averaging 22.4 this season (23 home, 22 away). He averages 23 at Etihad and 27 against Geelong.

This is only going back 3-4 seasons.

I will be backing both of those players for most disposels for group A and B

 

[KardiniaPark]

That's great but without sharing it's worthless to us

He's a compulsive liar with a possible personality disorder.

A compulsive liar will resort to telling lies, regardless of the situation. Again, everyone lies from time to time (see, when lovers lie), but for a compulsive liar, telling lies is routine. It becomes a habit - a way of life.

Simply put, for a compulsive liar, lying becomes second nature. Not only do compulsive liars bend the truth about issues large and small, they take comfort in it. Lying feels right to a compulsive liar. Telling the truth, on the other hand, is difficult and uncomfortable.

And like any behavior which provides comfort and an escape from discomfort (i.e., alcohol, drugs, sex), lying can become addictive and hard to stop. For the compulsive liar, lying feels safe and this fuels the desire to lie even more.

Making matters even more complicated, compulsive lying is often a symptom of a much larger personality disorder, which only makes the problem more difficult to resolve (see, narcissistic personality disorder and borderline personality disorder).

Poor ALDI

 

[Trojan Pies]

Gee/Carl Either U39.5

Gee 1-39
STK >15.5
Bris >15.5
Coll 25+
Syd 1-39
WCE 1-39

@ 175.76

Went to build this multi on Centrebet and didn't get anywhere near 175.76:

Selection: : GEELONG | Under 39.5 @ 2.23
Event: AFL, CARLTON vs GEELONG
Market: Winning Margin 39.5, 20 May 2011 19:40 Selection: : ST KILDA (-14.5) @ 1.82 Unknown Event: AFL, ST KILDA vs MELBOURNE
Market: Line, 21 May 2011 14:10 Selection: : BRISBANE (-14.5) @ 2.75 Unknown Event: AFL, BRISBANE vs NORTH MELBOURNE
Market: Line, 21 May 2011 19:40 Selection: : SYDNEY | Under 39.5 @ 2.59 Unknown Event: AFL, SYDNEY vs HAWTHORN
Market: Winning Margin 39.5, 22 May 2011 14:10 Selection: : WEST COAST | Under 39.5 @ 2.49 Unknown Event: AFL, WEST COAST vs WESTERN BULLDOGS
Market: Winning Margin 39.5, 22 May 2011 16:40 Combined Dividend: 71.979

You sure you aren't missing a leg in their Forthwrite? The Collingwood 25+ is only paying $1.22 so brings it up to around 83 or so....still no-where near 175.