Round 9

[laam]

Soft. No commitment.

Yeah, no commitment to the punt , if it wasn't my team I wouldn't have gone. Go cats

As soon as the first bounce I could tell it was under, quite a few spare seats up high and in the middle tier, and to get over 50k there pretty much has to be nothing spare.

But good night
all bets got up and geelong multi still alive
2u crowd < 51k @ 1.95
2u kelly over corey in DT
2u game total over 178.5

 

[TurboBreuster]

1.5U BRIS 1Q ML @1.97 (Sportsbet)
1.5U WCE -3.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet)
2U GEEL ATS loss
1.5U BRIS pk @1.95 (Pinnacle)
0.5U MEL ML @3.2 (Betfair)
1U MEL +16.5 @193.5 (Pinnacle)
0.25U PORT/FREO 1H/2H DBL @7 (Betfair)
1.3U FREO -11.5 @2.12 (Pinnacle)
0.5U PORT 1Q ML @2.15 (Sportsbet)

 

[the egg]

All of the dogs today are a chance IMO so will multi them all with a head start.

Melbourne +39.5
Port +24.5
Brisbane +24.5
Richmond +24.5

@ $3.40

 

[baywatch5]

ML - LIONS (x1.5)
1ST Q - BOMBERS -3.5 (x1)

AFL YTD: 36-25-2 (+19.95 @ 59%)
Write ups @ blog.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Nice value bet today in the Port v Fremantle game

Under 187.5 @ $1.90

Reasons:

For starters both teams are struggling to click at the moment & its a lot to expect the winner to get around 100, port are averaging only 78 per game this year & freo 89, not that this is the only thing working in favour of the under here.

There is a strong northerly wind today, 25-30kmph this should mean scoring is pretty much all at one end, which again makes it harder to cover an over because both coaches know they must restrict the other side's use with the wind & put extra men behind the ball.....I think we will see qtrs of 5 goals to 1 all day.....Football Park is also a notorious venue for poor accurancy when the wind is strong, the last time freo were in town vs Adl it was windy, they put up a similar under/over & i took under & it only got to 133.

I think the correct line should have been set at 178.5

 

[Koutafidamedis]

My Multi

Brisbane +11.5 (wanted to take them straight out but thought i'd be safe and give them a start)
St. Kilda -19.5 (can see this getting ugly for the dees)
Richmond +29.5
Collingwood -39.5
3U @ $7.62

thoughts?

 

[Lensen]

Going to wait for other bookies to compare prices for the other two games tomorrow, but not going to get better value for Syd v Haw than this so taking it now:

1.5 units Burgoyne @ $67

 

[twarby]

where at lenny?
i am going blind

 

[Lensen]

centrebet

 

[adii_7]

51 c/bet?

 

[Lensen]

must have come in
I'm on the phone so can't provide screenshot, happy to do so if required later on

 

[ManWithNoName]

Going to wait for other bookies to compare prices for the other two games tomorrow, but not going to get better value for Syd v Haw than this so taking it now:

1.5 units Burgoyne @ $67

Burgoyne to do what exactly?

 

[adii_7]

most goals.. should know lenny loves his burgs

 

[Amack]

Tips for today. Trying to make up for that debacle on Jimmy Bartel last night...

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Port Adelaide V Fremantle (AS)
Date of Event: 21-05-2011
Time of Event: 14:40
Sport: AFL
Tip: Hamish Hartlett to have more DT Match points than Travis Boak
Odds: $2.01
Units: 5
Sportsbook: Sportingbet
Comments: Hartlett generally goes head to head with an opposition player. Boak might cop a tag and Hartlett has been outperforming this year anyway.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Port Adelaide V Fremantle (AS)
Date of Event: 21-05-2011
Time of Event: 14:40
Sport: AFL
Tip: Boak to beat Broughton most match DT Points
Odds: $1.65
Units: 10
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: This is an absolute lock. Broughton has been a huge disappointment in DT this year. He's playing tighter to his man.

 

[adii_7]

freo over 39.5 is a cracking bet imo.

 

[adii_7]

amack, there terrible tips cause they conflict pretty much

 

[twarby]

Tips for today. Trying to make up for that debacle on Jimmy Bartel last night...

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Port Adelaide V Fremantle (AS)
Date of Event: 21-05-2011
Time of Event: 14:40
Sport: AFL
Tip: Hamish Hartlett to have more DT Match points than Travis Boak
Odds: $2.01
Units: 5
Sportsbook: Sportingbet
Comments: Hartlett generally goes head to head with an opposition player. Boak might cop a tag and Hartlett has been outperforming this year anyway.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Port Adelaide V Fremantle (AS)
Date of Event: 21-05-2011
Time of Event: 14:40
Sport: AFL
Tip: Boak to beat Broughton most match DT Points
Odds: $1.65
Units: 10
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: This is an absolute lock. Broughton has been a huge disappointment in DT this year. He's playing tighter to his man.

Boak "might cop a tag"

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think you need to send in the oracle for a tune up.

 

[Trojan Pies]

Tips for today. Trying to make up for that debacle on Jimmy Bartel last night...

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Port Adelaide V Fremantle (AS)
Date of Event: 21-05-2011
Time of Event: 14:40
Sport: AFL
Tip: Hamish Hartlett to have more DT Match points than Travis Boak
Odds: $2.01
Units: 5
Sportsbook: Sportingbet
Comments: Hartlett generally goes head to head with an opposition player. Boak might cop a tag and Hartlett has been outperforming this year anyway.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Port Adelaide V Fremantle (AS)
Date of Event: 21-05-2011
Time of Event: 14:40
Sport: AFL
Tip: Boak to beat Broughton most match DT Points
Odds: $1.65
Units: 10
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: This is an absolute lock. Broughton has been a huge disappointment in DT this year. He's playing tighter to his man.

Yep and yep for these bets - I've personally thrown a heap of coin at the latter.

 

[Trojan Pies]

Boak "might cop a tag"

Now that is hilarious! Didn't read that - a complete contradiction in the two bets provided! LOL!

Obviously, Mr Oracle is hoping that despite the tag, he will still outscore Broughton who has been a Goddard-esque shadow of DT himself this year...

 

[the egg]

freo over 39.5 is a cracking bet imo.

Any reasoning behind this?

Freo aren't exactly going great at the moment and Port don't get beat by over 39 pts at home too often. This game will be decided by less than 4-5 goals...either way.

 

[adii_7]

I think you need to send in the oracle for a tune up.

too true KP.

Any reasoning behind this?

Freo aren't exactly going great at the moment and Port don't get beat by over 39 pts at home too often. This game will be decided by less than 4-5 goals...either way.

To fast to furious. Will be so angry after losing the derby,

Palmer in means pavlich can play up forward... No Carlile (mabye out).. ouchies.

Wind going strong to one end, freo will play lock down football..

freo should win comfortably.

no h2h play just over 20.5 & 40 for me.

 

[pistol17]

Happy Hour on Sportingbet is Freo to lead at end of all qtrs @ $2.90

Should be like taking candy from a Baby.

 

[Amack]

Boak "might cop a tag"

Thanks for your support team. I stand by the comments, because Boak 'may' cope a tag but regardless of if he does get tagged or not he'll still beat Broughton. Getting a tag in the midfield is better than tagging a player in the backline which Broughton will likely be doing. Then you've got Hartlett who will likely be running free and who I think has about a 70% chance of beating Boak. Boak on the other hand has about a 80% chance of beating Broughton especially if he doesn't cop that tag.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Happy Hour on Sportingbet is Freo to lead at end of all qtrs @ $2.90

Should be like taking candy from a Baby.

you have lost before you have started if port win the toss & kick with the wind in the 1st qtr.