Preview Rounds 21-23

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
Feb 23, 2008
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We're forgetting here that the AFL will be very keen to keep Essendon and Adelaide in the eight. Going to be some interesting umpiring this weekend, especially at Optus. WCE won't have it all their own way.
I don't think there's any reason they'd be keen to keep Adelaide in the 8. It won't be a home final so they wouldn't be worried about a difference in crowds, and neutrals making up the TV audience would probably more interested in watching us than them at the moment given the difference in the media narratives surrounding the two teams.
 

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DaTBird187

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 9, 2014
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We're forgetting here that the AFL will be very keen to keep Essendon and Adelaide in the eight. Going to be some interesting umpiring this weekend, especially at Optus. WCE won't have it all their own way.
If that ever happened, Optus Standium would sound like it was filled with 80,000 Drop-D tuned Vuvuzela's.
 

DaTBird187

Norm Smith Medallist
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I don't think there's any reason they'd be keen to keep Adelaide in the 8. It won't be a home final so they wouldn't be worried about a difference in crowds, and neutrals making up the TV audience would probably more interested in watching us than them at the moment given the difference in the media narratives surrounding the two teams.
Plus their brand of football is putrid and stale. At least when we are up and about we look snazzy.
 

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
Feb 23, 2008
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Plus their brand of football is putrid and stale. At least when we are up and about we look snazzy.
That's what I was getting at with the 'media narratives' bit. Vic media has been pumping up how exciting we are when we're up and about lately. Which is true, but unfortunately it only happens about once a month.
 

Coobk001

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 26, 2007
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It does seem we've avoided the end of season collapse, but I'll only believe it when I see us win this week. Do that and then I'm happy to start thinking about winning all 3.

On first looks though I think W-L-W is probable.
 

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shewho

Club Legend
Oct 7, 2005
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Are there other teams?
I am increasingly coming to a view that we are a dry weather side. That's ok- best to play a brand that is suited to September.

But trying to predict us, without knowing the weather forecast is tricky.

Wet weather footy is mostly won by the team that wants it the most- we are only a 50% proposition when this is the equation.
 
Jun 11, 2019
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Even if we win all three games we will still be heavily relying on either Adelaide or Essendon to lose enough games to allow us to go above them on the ladder.
So by the end of round 21 IF:

Port wins, Adelaide and Essendon lose,
We will be in the eight above Adelaide with a chance to finish in 7th position depending on how the Bombers last two games shape up.

Port wins, Adelaide and Essendon wins,
All three teams will remain in the same position on the ladder, but we will still have a chance if either Adelaide lose one game and we can uphold a better percentage or if Essendon loses both their last two games.

Port wins, Adelaide wins, Essendon lose,
We will still be outside the eight, but with the Bombers low percentage we will still have a chance to finish 8th if they lose another game.

Port wins, Essendon wins, Adelaide lose,
We will likely be in the eight but will need to make sure we can uphold a better percentage than Adelaide, 7th position will likely be out of reach for Port.

Port lose, Adelaide and Essendon lose,
All three teams remain in the same position on the ladder unless Fremantle wins and surpass Port. Finals will still be a possibility, but will still require Adelaide to lose one game and the Bombers to lose both their last games for Port to make the eight, along with Fremantle losing at least one game.

Port lose, Adelaide lose, Essendon wins,
Port cannot finish 7th and needs Adelaide to lose one game along with possessing percentage advantage to make the eight. If Fremantle wins, they will also need to lose one game.

Port lose, Essendon lose, Adelaide wins,
Essendon must lose both of their last two games for Port to make the eight. It will still be possible to finish 7th if Adelaide also loses both of their last two games along with possessing percentage advantage. Fremantle must lose one game if they are to win.

Port lose, Adelaide and Essendon wins,
Port Adelaide will not make the finals in 2019.

Unfortunately, we've now put ourselves in the position where our finals chances rely on certain teams above us losing certain games just to give us a chance at finishing above them and making the top eight. However, most of all, we MUST win all of our last three games of the home and away season. We need to focus on ourselves first before we worry about other teams.

GO PORT!!!
This isn't totally accurate.

The big missing factor is the Bulldogs from any considerations. For example where Port, Adelaide and Bombers all lose we won't stay in the same position - the Bulldogs will move above us (having beaten Essendon). As long as Doggies lose to GWS they won't get above us in a circumstance we'd otherwise make the eight though, but their other games are against Essendon and Adelaide so they hold our fate in their hands too.

We also don't need to fear Freo really at all given that we are on the same points as them with superior percentage and play them in round 23. The equation will almost always be that we have to beat Freo to have enough points to make finals and in doing so we will knock them out.

In fact if Port lose this week and Crows and Bombers win there's STILL a chance we make it - although we'd be relying on the Crows losing their last two and us getting over them on percentage.

In fact if you tip all the favourites from here on Port end up 8th.
Even more, if you tip all the favourites from here AND Port lose one game we end up 8th on percentage (assuming 20pt margins to all games).
 

AwwThatsApples

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Mar 24, 2019
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This isn't totally accurate.

The big missing factor is the Bulldogs from any considerations. For example where Port, Adelaide and Bombers all lose we won't stay in the same position - the Bulldogs will move above us (having beaten Essendon). As long as Doggies lose to GWS they won't get above us in a circumstance we'd otherwise make the eight though, but their other games are against Essendon and Adelaide so they hold our fate in their hands too.

We also don't need to fear Freo really at all given that we are on the same points as them with superior percentage and play them in round 23. The equation will almost always be that we have to beat Freo to have enough points to make finals and in doing so we will knock them out.

In fact if Port lose this week and Crows and Bombers win there's STILL a chance we make it - although we'd be relying on the Crows losing their last two and us getting over them on percentage.

In fact if you tip all the favourites from here on Port end up 8th.
Even more, if you tip all the favourites from here AND Port lose one game we end up 8th on percentage (assuming 20pt margins to all games).
Ahh yes, I forgot to consider the Dogs.
I'm sure there would still be a chance for us to make the eight even if we are to lose whilst the Crows and Bombers win, but it wouldn't be a realistic chance.
 

PAFC27

LANE KICKING
Apr 28, 2016
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Our difficult fixture after the BYE shouldn't be an excuse. This is the issue.

Why did we not capitalise on wins earlier on in the season then? Why aren't we better now, at the end of the season?

We lost 3 in a row before we pulled a win out our ass versus out-of-form Essendon. We love love patterns this year so I fully expect us to revert form and lose the next 3.
 

Willsy10

Premiership Player
Apr 3, 2014
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North will belt us here in Melbourne as well. Forget about it.
They better not as i'll be going to that game. We've had their measure in every game we've played against them since round 3 2014. and there have been at least 3 or 4 at docklands. How we played at Marvel on the weekend without our kryptonite (rain - weather) gives me a fair bit of hope that we can win that game.

the banana peel game is Sydney.
 

Matchu

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 12, 2007
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If (this is a big if considering our season so far) we beat Sydney at home this weekend and the Crows lose to West Coast at Optus like they should, then we're very likely to enter the top 8. I'll feel A LOT more comfortable if we're inside the top 8 with two rounds to go, knowing our fate is completely in our own hands. If that doesn't happen, then I fear we'll definitely find a way to mess this opportunity up.
 

Portology

Cheap, fast, safe: pick two, or juggle three.
Sep 27, 2007
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Freo/Lyon/home game/last round/ours to screw up.

The planets are aligning to troll us.

Edit: we could still make the finals on 11 wins without too many strange things happening.

Weird results, weird fixture. Portz.

On iPhone using recycled electrons, via BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Enviable Tradition

Professional Procrastinator
Oct 12, 2007
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If (this is a big if considering our season so far) we beat Sydney at home this weekend and the Crows lose to West Coast at Optus like they should, then we're very likely to enter the top 8. I'll feel A LOT more comfortable if we're inside the top 8 with two rounds to go, knowing our fate is completely in our own hands. If that doesn't happen, then I fear we'll definitely find a way to mess this opportunity up.
You would feel comfortable if our fate is in our own hands???

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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