Preview Rounds 21-23

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Sydney don’t have motivation to win, close honourable loses better for them.

Longmire has a bit to do to show he merited his contract extension

 

[Matchu]

Longmire has a bit to do to show he merited his contract extension

Sydney are currently heading for pick four in this year's draft and could even drop below the in-form Carlton which would mean pick three. They aren't going to play finals this year so it's in their best interests to lose their next three games.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Sydney are currently heading for pick four in this year's draft and could even drop below the in-form Carlton which would mean pick three. They aren't going to play finals this year so it's in their best interests to lose their next three games.

I am not convinced this is the draft to bother doing this in. Also Carlton would be odds on to beat St Kilda next round anyway.

 

[Lucifuge]

All of Sydney, North Melbourne and Fremantle are sending in players for surgery that they wouldn't have done if they were thinking they absolutely need to win these games. That's how you know the cue is in the rack. They aren't playing for anything other than no more injuries so they can hit preseason hard for 2020.

 

[RossFC]

All of Sydney, North Melbourne and Fremantle are sending in players for surgery that they wouldn't have done if they were thinking they absolutely need to win these games. That's how you know the cue is in the rack. They aren't playing for anything other than no more injuries so they can hit preseason hard for 2020.

Who has been ruled out from those 3 clubs for the rest of the season?

 

[Granny Duurs is Lovely]

All of Sydney, North Melbourne and Fremantle are sending in players for surgery that they wouldn't have done if they were thinking they absolutely need to win these games. That's how you know the cue is in the rack. They aren't playing for anything other than no more injuries so they can hit preseason hard for 2020.

Have to agree with that. Was very surprised to see Lobb off to have surgery when the AFL website was writing him up as a chance to play this weekend.

It's why it's always so much better to play bad teams at the end of the year, when their depth is tested to it's max and they're not risking players. Imagine being a freo or doggies supporter and looking back on losing to the Gold Coast early in the year. Even worse than our losses!

 

[Lucifuge]

Who has been ruled out from those 3 clubs for the rest of the season?

For Sydney? Hayward, Maibaum, Sinclair and Smith. Cameron, Franklin, Ling, McVeigh and Naismith are all listed as 1-2 weeks away...which basically means they are all slated to return for McVeigh's farewell match at the SCG in R23.

North Melbourne sent in Davies-Uniacke for shoulder surgery this week. He's been playing with it for a few weeks now. He joins Vickers-Willis, Jacobs, Daw, McDonald, Tyson, Scott and Hall as being either out for the season or indefinite. You don't send in a top five pick from last year for surgery unless you've shut down your season.

Fremantle lost Lobb to shoulder surgery this week too. That means they've lost him as well as Hogan and Pearce. Wilson has been playing with a bad toe for a few weeks and is listed as TBC, as is Stephen Hill.

Without the incentive of finals to motivate these players, all they have is pride. And it's not like we are a big rival to any of these teams. I'm expecting to win all three games and pretty easily.

 

[Winganeen]

Have done the ladder predictor a few times and we keep ending up in the 8.
I'm thinking W-L-W and depending on results either 7th or 8th.

Either way its a losing final. The masochist in me wants it to be in NSW to witness the atrocities.

 

[Winganeen]

I don't think there's any reason they'd be keen to keep Adelaide in the 8. It won't be a home final so they wouldn't be worried about a difference in crowds, and neutrals making up the TV audience would probably more interested in watching us than them at the moment given the difference in the media narratives surrounding the two teams.

Camrys with a final at the G will draw a fair old crowd.

 

[Papa G]

2023 AFL Club Schedule Difficulty | Strength of Schedule | Stats Insider

Get ahead of the game with our 2023 AFL Club Schedule Difficulty analysis. Find the Strength of Schedule for each team and plan your bets.

www.statsinsider.com.au

Our last 3 games has been rated the 5th easiest. Crows second hardest. Bulldogs 4th hardest. Essendon 7th Easiest. Freo 9th Hardest.

 

[Janus]

Have done the ladder predictor a few times and we keep ending up in the 8.
I'm thinking W-L-W and depending on results either 7th or 8th.

Either way its a losing final. The masochist in me wants it to be in NSW to witness the atrocities.

There is nothing stopping this team from doing what the Bulldogs did in 2016, minus the umpiring assistance, except the belief they have in themselves.

 

[JUSTWORK]

There is nothing stopping this team from doing what the Bulldogs did in 2016, minus the umpiring assistance, except the belief they have in themselves.

Provided they turn up every week, and given the last few years that’s a reasonable if.

But if they do, they are very capable of winning the flag from 7th or 8th.

 

[TeeKray]

There is nothing stopping this team from doing what the Bulldogs did in 2016, minus the umpiring assistance, except the belief they have in themselves.

And the fact that we won't get 2/4 home games from 7th/8th like they did as a Victorian team.

 

[DaTBird187]

And the fact that we won't get 2/4 home games from 7th/8th like they did as a Victorian team.

The way we have played home and away this year, that would be a blessing.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

I want to win but then again I hope we don't make it. Ken needs to go

At this point we should just want to make it I think. We already ****ed losing out so winning out is preferable now.

Essendon win + one more has probably already done enough to secure Ken's job for another year

 

[PAFC66]

At this point we should just want to make it I think. We already f’ed losing out so winning out is preferable now.

Essendon win + one more has probably already done enough to secure Ken's job for another year

I don't think so. We don't make finals I believe he's gone.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Fair enough, wait and see I guess.

I definitely thought that before essendon, but 60+ at marvel probably papers over those cracks pretty hard

 

[Magus]

There is nothing stopping this team from doing what the Bulldogs did in 2016, minus the umpiring assistance, except the belief they have in themselves.

So you're saying we're going to lose to Sydney in the Grand Final?

 

[PAFC66]

Fair enough, wait and see I guess.

I definitely thought that before essendon, but 60+ at marvel probably papers over those cracks pretty hard

I agree but Essendon had a host of quality players out that weren't when they smashed us last year.

 

[PAFC66]

So you're saying we're going to lose to Sydney in the Grand Final?

The thing he forgets is the Bulldogs were no where near as inconsistent as we are in 2016. They actually had a game plan that their players were well suited to and perfected it, they didn't jump at shadows and change everything up week to week

 

[EskimoPAFC]

I agree but Essendon had a host of quality players out that weren't when they smashed us last year.

This is correct but will likely be hardly factored in by most fans and decisions makers.

 

[Janus]

The thing he forgets is the Bulldogs were no where near as inconsistent as we are in 2016. They actually had a game plan that their players were well suited to and perfected it, they didn't jump at shadows and change everything up week to week

Bulldogs 2016 season:



Average winning margin: 27.2 points
Average losing margin: 23 points

Port Adelaide 2019 season (so far):



Average winning margin: 37.2 points
Average losing margin: 24.7 points

Both teams lost to Fremantle away from home.
Both teams lost to Hawthorn away in Tasmania.
Both teams lost to GWS.
Both teams smashed Essendon.
Both teams got thrashed by a team in the top four and lost both games (Geelong/Brisbane).

The difference is that the Dogs didn't have to play two top four teams as their double ups.

At any rate, I'm not saying is going to happen, or even that it's likely to happen. I'm saying that there's nothing stopping it from happening if the team builds a bit of momentum and plays to the standard it's shown against West Coast, Essendon, Geelong and Adelaide.

I agree but Essendon had a host of quality players out that weren't when they smashed us last year.

No one cared about the players we had out when we lost to Brisbane at the Gabba, or Adelaide at home, or Collingwood at Marvel, or Hawthorn in Tasmania.

If players are missing and you can't win, it just means your depth is poor.

 

[PAFC66]

Bulldogs 2016 season:

View attachment 723320

Average winning margin: 27.2 points
Average losing margin: 23 points

Port Adelaide 2019 season (so far):

View attachment 723323

Average winning margin: 37.2 points
Average losing margin: 24.7 points

Both teams lost to Fremantle away from home.
Both teams lost to Hawthorn away in Tasmania.
Both teams lost to GWS.
Both teams smashed Essendon.
Both teams got thrashed by a team in the top four and lost both games (Geelong/Brisbane).

The difference is that the Dogs didn't have to play two top four teams as their double ups.

At any rate, I'm not saying is going to happen, or even that it's likely to happen. I'm saying that there's nothing stopping it from happening if the team builds a bit of momentum and plays to the standard it's shown against West Coast, Essendon, Geelong and Adelaide.



No one cared about the players we had out when we lost to Brisbane at the Gabba, or Adelaide at home, or Collingwood at Marvel, or Hawthorn in Tasmania.

If players are missing and you can't win, it just means your depth is poor.

In some aspects you're right on paper there are similarities and we are incredibly inconsistent and tend to perform at a higher level against higher ranked sides so if we got to the finals we may be dangerous but I don't believe we have a notable gameplan that will achieve any sort of sustainable success week in and week out like the Dogs had that year.

There depth was also tested and they had players that just slotted in and robotically performed their role to perfection..we have a gameplan that revolves around hoping the opposition are not on as we have no other plan besides a chaotic all out attack. We are too easy to be scored against on turnover.

 

[Janus]

In some aspects you're right on paper there are similarities and we are incredibly inconsistent and tend to perform at a higher level against higher ranked sides so if we got to the finals we may be dangerous but I don't believe we have a notable gameplan that will achieve any sort of sustainable success like the Dogs had that year. There depth was also tested and they had players that just slotted in and robotically performed their role to perfection..

You've answered your own question as to why we are inconsistent. It takes our players about two games to get up to speed, because the Magpies aren't playing at the same sort of level just yet. The thing people forget about the Bulldogs is that they won a VFL flag with their reserves in the same year they won the AFL.

That's why it's important to have a great reserves system in place.

 

[PAFC66]

You've answered your own question as to why we are inconsistent. It takes our players about two games to get up to speed, because the Magpies aren't playing at the same sort of level just yet. The thing people forget about the Bulldogs is that they won a VFL flag with their reserves in the same year they won the AFL.

That's why it's important to have a great reserves system in place.

Huh?

2 games? We haven't won a couple in a row since round 6 or 7...

Our players aren't going to learn s**t when the coach is changing the gameplan every single year. No successful football club that wins a flag radically changes their gameplan every year.

The dogs had a strong reserves side because they were all on the same page as the seniors in terms of a gameplan that they had been learning for years. They were well coached..This is what wins flags. Not jumping at shadows.