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Racing Royal Ascot 2023

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Royal Ascot starts tomorrow so thought I would start a standalone thread for this great racing carnival

At first glance some thoughts below for Day 1

R1 Queen Anne Stakes - 1 Mile Group 1

Inspiral (Gosden/Frankie) is back from long break and was up down last season but her win in the Coronation Stakes in last years carnival is hard to look past (was also first up and back from a long break) - is 2-1

Another on the shortlist is Cash (Simcock/Marquand) - its coming off a 4th placing against proven Group winner Hukum last month over 2f longer so that run should have trimmed him up nicely .... the form from that race has been franked with the 5th placed horse winning a Listed race over a mile on Sunday ..... currently it is 25-1

Another roughie Lusail (Hannon / Moore) - has placed twice at Ascot running 2nd (head margin) in the St James Palace Stakes in last years carnival - has had 3 runs already this campaign so should be fit - currently 33-1

Race 2 - Coventry Stakes - Group 2 for 2yo over 6 Furlongs

Asadna (Boughey/Buick) in his first race won a Novice Stakes (6f) at Ripon by 12 lengths - ran a slick time (1.10.87) - a full 1 sec faster than the other two 6f races that day (with older horses) - probably didnt beat much but it got through the line well - is by Mehmas who produces some fast 2yos

Danger would be the O'Brien colt River Tiber who has won its first 2 races in Ireland and the form has been franked - it is also favourite

Roughie - Spanish Phoenix (Balding/Murphy) at 50-1 - has drawn an outside gate (19) but it could be the place to be - has had 2 starts and won a maiden last race by 6.5 lengths - has a good trainer jockey who combine well

Race 3 - King Stand Stakes - 5 Furlong Group 1

Oz has a few runners here in Coolangatta and Cannonball but not sure they are up to the standard of previous runners we have sent

It looks a very open race this year so going with a proven Ascot winner in Bradsell (Watson/Hollie) who won the Coventry Stakes here last year - is currently 33-1

3yo dont have a super strike rate in this race - Lady Aurelia in 2017 and Equiano in 2008 being the last two 3yo winners but am prepared to overlook this

Bradsell has had 2 runs already this spell - the last run he finished 3rd at Haydock behind the champion 2yo of last year the O'Brien trained Little Big Bear - his first run back from a spell he finished 3rd at Ascot against some horses that will run also in the Kings - both races were over 6f so should be race fit for this 5f sprint - maybe a ? whether it has the speed to stick with some of these but he did lead up for a while at Haydock before fading late - he is the 3rd highest rated horse in the race and will carry less weight than most

Race 4 - St James Palace Stakes - Group 1 for 3yo over 1 mile

A toss of the coin between Chaldean (Balding/Dettori) & Paddington (O'Brien/Moore) - UK & Irelands top 3yo milers

Roughie - the lightly raced Mostabshir (Gosden/Crowley) at 10s - won previous race over the Knavesmire mile by 5 lengths against lesser types though 2 have won since in lower grade races

Will do the last 3 races later
 
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I’m not across international racing form, any of these options present any value?
 

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Race 5 - Ascot Stakes - Class 2 Handicap over 2m 5f

A few Course winners, CD winners, Distance winners and Class winners in the 20 horse field so not an easy race to find a winner

A few horse in here trained by leading Jumps trainers - Mullins, Nicholls, Henderson & Elliott - the favourite Bring on the Night is trained by Willie Mullins and it ran 2nd to Coltrane in last years Ascot Stakes - it had 3 lead up races before that spread over a 3 month period however this year will be its first outing since that race .... it won easily first up in its last spell but that was in a maiden Hurdle ..... it is lightly raced and has the mighty Mullins behind him so there could be improvement to come ..... can understand why its favourite especially as Mullins has won thia race 4 times in the last 11 eleven years, however ..... I am.looking elsewhere and that elsewhere is Novel Legend trained by James Fanshawe and ridden by Danny Muscutt.

Novel Legend is lightly raced (10 starts) and has had 3 runs in this campaign for 2 first and a 2nd - last race was at the tight Chester track and it lost to Zinc White (also running) but meets this horse 8 pounds better off ..... he is by Nathaniel out of a Dubawi mare so is absolutely bred to get the 2m 5f trip .... currently its 10-1

Race 6 - Wolverton Stakes - Listed Class 1 over 1m 3f

16 horse field with plenty of chances - favourite Saga (Gosden/Dettori) is 4-1 and has solid form and won its maiden race at Ascot over 7f and also ran 2nd in the 30 horse field Brittania Stakes over 8f at last years carnival - it has had one run this spell (at Newmarket) for a 2nd against King of Conquest (Appleby/Buick) who also runs however she meets that horse 3lb better off

Since that race King of Conquest has notched up another win this time beating Francesco Clemente (Gosden/Havlin) who is currently 2nd fave - that was its 1st run this spell so it should be primed for a big run though I am not a big Havlin fan and Dettori is on the other Gosden runner Saga.

The globetrotting Bolshoi Ballet (O'Brien/Moore) must be respected for trainer/Jockey combo alone over this distance - in 2021 it had been running in higher Group races but only had one 1 run in 2022 and this will be its 3rd run this campaign ..... nice ew price at 8-1

My preference though is for Solid Stone (Stoute/Kingscote) who has been running consistently in Group races and ran 4th to Broome in the Hardwicke Stakes last year over slightly further distance ..... Sir Michael's stable hasn't really hit form yet this UK flat season but they have to sometime and Solid Stone ran a decent 3rd to Hukum (multiple Listed, Group 1 2 & 3 winner) last month (mentioned earlier) with the 2022 Derby winner Desert Crown splitting them .... it led that race and faded the last furlong however it will strip fitter now ..... as mentioned previously the form from that Hukum race has also been franked with the 5th placed horse winning a Listed mile race last Sunday .... currently 10-1 and its where my hard earned is going

Race 7 - Copper Horse Handicap - Class 2 over 1m 6f

I will make this one simple and go with -

Ruling Dynasty (Appleby/Buick) at 8-1 & I also dont mind Gaassee (Haggas/Marquand) at 16s

Ruling Dynasty has only had 3 starts for 2 wins and a 2nd and it won last week by 6.5l over a shorter trip albeit in Class 4 Novice race .... obviously it is unexposed and should continue to improve ... has stamina on the dam side (out of Singspiel mare) so it should see out the extra 2 furlong

Gaassee I am keeping safe purely because it is trained by Haggas - it has only had one start this campaign albeit not great however it is Class 2 winner over 1m 4f and Haggas has a knack getting horses up at odds after a poor run - is a Sea The Stars gelding out of a Monsun mare so distance shouldn't be an issue

Happy Ascot Punting :thumbsu:
 
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Jugada said:
Happy to take almost double figures about Native Trail bouncing back in the Queen Anne
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Can't have given the superior stablemate flogged the the thing that beat him home at his seasonal reappearance (actually reckon there is a non zero chance its cooked). If the fave turns up it just wins
 

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I'm surprised Sportsbet nor TAB have markets for Top Jockey and Top Trainer... These are usually pretty standard.
 
Good spot.

I wonder if they'd get better business if they advertised that as part of their "racing" tab. It seems like you can only access that market through 'offers' which a lot of standard racing fans wouldn't check.
 
iluvparis said:
Can't have given the superior stablemate flogged the the thing that beat him home at his seasonal reappearance (actually reckon there is a non zero chance its cooked). If the fave turns up it just wins
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Could be but the odds seem drastically turned on their head based on the one run each this prep. Anything north of $8 will do me for a race I reckon there is a lot of guess work in
 

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Jugada said:
Could be but the odds seem drastically turned on their head based on the one run each this prep. Anything north of $8 will do me for a race I reckon there is a lot of guess work in
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Nah faves a probable moral - $8 seems short when he finished alongside Light Infantry who is 20s at his only run back
 

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Racing Royal Ascot 2023

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