Analysis S Mitchell vs Ablett Jnr

[grumbleguts]

So Gary Ablett Jnr is a superstar. You'd love him in your side.

From what I could see empirically is this: *Bounce* someone gets ball to Ablett, he gives a little 1.5 m 1-2 handball doubles his possession count then receives and bombs it long from the centre circle to the middle of the forward fifty arc without looking. Clarkson figures this out and at the bounce puts two players in that spot, the GC centre half forward has to beat two, ball goes to ground second player wins possession and we set up.

Now I wondered if this were true so looked at the stats. (This took a fair while) The following is a comparison of all the GC games played by Ablett and all the hawthorn games played by Mitchell.





What is shows is Ablett has a negative effect on GC's scoreline, while Mitchell has a strong positive effect on Hawthorn's. When Ablett gets the ball, typically GC lose, when he doesn't they lose by less or win. The opposite is true for Mitchell.

The Pearson's Correlation coefficient for Ablett's possessions against winning margin is -0.214, while for Mitchell it is 0.466.

You'd rather have Ablett not get the ball than get it. Superstar.

 

[bradburygold]

Interesting stat - I believe danger had a similar negative coefficient when at Adelaide.

You could argue its poor coaching too if someone cant coach a team with an in form ablett

 

[Aramis]

A single players possessions cross referenced to overall result is more coincidental than anything else.
its a statistical anomaly to say that when Gary Ablett Jr gets the ball more they lose more... he clearly carried that team on his shoulders for years.
for sentimental and obvious reasons I take Mitchell everyday of the week but don't underestimate how good Gary Ablett Jr was.

 

[arupist]

You could also argue that the team is just crap, no matter how good Ablett is.

 

[QuietB]

I think the point is that all possessions are not equal.

The number of players who are held in such high regard these days simply because they have high possession counts (cough - Parker - cough) is ridiculous. Ablett is absolutely one of the best but he is not without flaws and I would never say spearing forward (or any) deliveries were ever his strength - his disposal is actually pretty pedestrian like Cotchin and whoever else who likes to chip it rather than drive it.

But then F50 entries were not Sammy's strength either.

Who is the perfect footballer? The ones who are most likely - say Martin who can destroy you with strength and amazing disposal - still have their flaws. Martin simply does not have the tank to do it all match.

I think they are all flawed somewhere.

 

[bradburygold]

If you looked at points +/- with certain players on/off ground youd be surprised at how some stars look. These types of stats just dont work with afl, far too many variables

 

[Nugett]

Ablett Jnr in my opinion has always been over rated. As an opposition supporter, I never felt concern when he had the ball. Someone like Greg Williams however, would scare you with a ball in his hand. The obvious reason, Abletts little back and forth handballs rarely hurt, and quite often sells his team mates in trouble, with Diesel his possessions usually impacted and influenced the game. I mention Diesel due to the comparison with Sam. As much as I disliked Carlton Williams at least made you respect them, unfortunately, I think Sam was just below that level.
Just my 2c worth

 

[grumbleguts]

You could also argue that the team is just crap, no matter how good Ablett is.

Which would mean there would be the exact opposite correlation for BOTH mitchell and gablett.

 

[Randy Campbell]

Team game with 22 players.
The value of one is the most overrated thing in AFL.

 

[robs_drunk]

I like the stats they back up my feelings as to Mitchell being better due to making players around him play better.

In some cases telling there where to go in other cases by putting the ball where they needed to go

 

[cryptor]

Perhaps the instances where Ablett got a very high possession count were when his teammates weren't putting in as much? Hence the team loses.

Where as at Hawthorn because the team has been so good they could still win regardless of whether or not Mitchell got a heap of it. And naturally as he's such a good user of the ball it tended to help us when he got it in his hands.

Either way, Mitchell has imo been the more consistent player. Having been at and held his best footy for many years. Ablett perhaps had a higher peak but couldn't match Mitchell for consistency.