Media - S26 Pace-Adjusted Stats | BigFooty

Media S26 Pace-Adjusted Stats

Discussion in 'The Sweet F.A. (SFA) - Fantasy Footy League' started by Barrybran, Aug 19, 2018.

  1. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

    West Coast
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    [​IMG]

    Hi all

    I'm a numbers fan. I don't know what it is about numbers but I love them; always have. I love sport too and the combination of the two is something I really enjoy. I also love how sport is delving into advanced stats and while the availability of publicly available AFL stats is behind the likes of Major League Baseball and the NBA we know that the likes of Champion Data are constantly evolving and producing stats for clubs behind the scenes.

    When I first arrived at Sweet FA I was intrigued by the box score. Comments such as the Mobbs medalist always being a rover, players wanting to play at full forward for their chance at a Fred Medal, now The Edge has popped up for ruckmen. I love the concept of how numbers tell a story of a game of qooty.

    My first game of qooty was a 46-goal slugfest against the Wonders. In a 100-minute game, both teams combined for 68 scoring shots. Just two games later, we combined with the Mount Buller Demons for 72 scoring shots. What I noticed from these games was how the Bears dominated the raw data leaderboards; but what impact did each individual have on the game? How important was kdavva74's eight goals in a 30-goal game? Was CakeEater's 20-disposal effort in the season's lowest scoring game to date any less important than gym4life's massive 17-hitout, 14-kick, 22 handball, 3-goal game against the Wonders?

    I have attempted to standardise each player's statistics for pace to determine who has had the greatest impact this season. To do this, I have produced a "game factor" for each match played based on the number of scoring shots and possessions in that game. This game factor has then been applied as a multiplier to each individual stat in the Dream Team formula.

    The result is a Standardised Dream Team score for each player taking into account the pace of each individual game. Players that have been involved in higher scoring games will have lower Standardised Dream Team scores while those who have played in lower scoring games will receive a boost. This stat isn't perfect but hopefully it will provide a better insight into who the top performers really are.

    So far, 250 players have taken to the qooty field this season. Below are the top 10 players through each of the first four rounds as well as the top 10 for the season to date.

    Round 1
    RankNameTeamRaw scoreStd. score
    1CM9000Coney Island Warriors122115
    2BRABGumbies FFC111112
    3 gym4lifeLas Vegas Bears143110
    4 TedDougChrisRoys FFC94107
    5 JoshWoodenSpoonLas Vegas Bears139106
    6 philreich Sin City Swamprats 78105
    7 CakeEater Gold Coast Royals 77105
    8 candiehappy Coney Island Warriors106100
    9 TheCoach16 Baghdad Bombers7299
    10zackahConey Island Warriors10699

    Round 2
    RankNameTeamRaw scoreStd. score
    1StoodsRoys FFC130119
    2Sab22West Coast Wonders118112
    3Cactus_West Coast Wonders114108
    4Tarkyn_24Mount Buller Demons91105
    5DemonJimMount Buller Demons91105
    6Wayne's-WorldDragons FC113103
    7MWPPGold Coast Royals87101
    8The JesusEast Side Hawks10398
    9TigerturbulenceFighting Furies9096
    10GotTheGoodesSin City Swamprats9996

    Round 3
    RankNameTeamRaw scoreStd. score
    1FreofalconConey Island Warriors130124
    2_Cayz_Baghdad Bombers112106
    3This Is AnfieldFighting Furies93105
    4philreichSin City Swamprats109104
    5Blaze StormDragons FC107102
    6Proper GanderMount Buller Demons120101
    7OESFighting Furies8799
    8xenxenDragons FC10499
    9DapperJongConey Island Warriors10096
    10TedDougChrisRoys FFC8195

    Round 4
    RankNameTeamRaw scoreStd. score
    13KZ is FootballRoys FFC119116
    2Cactus_West Coast Wonders110109
    3FreofalconConey Island Warriors112107
    43121 premiersGold Coast Royals129106
    5BRABGumbies FFC102100
    6por_please_yaEast Side Hawks10399
    7TheInjuryFactoryConey Island Warriors10498
    8sportsmaniac89Sin City Swamprats8296
    9roo2maccaGumbies FFC9795
    10philreichSin City Swamprats8194

    Season (through first four rounds)
    RankNameTeamRaw scoreStd. score
    1Cactus_West Coast Wonders423400
    2FreofalconConey Island Warriors410390
    3BRABGumbies FFC387382
    4philreichSin City Swamprats341373
    53KZ is FootballRoys FFC350366
    6brahjLas Vegas Bears406352
    7roo2maccaGumbies FFC356351
    8TedDougChrisRoys FFC331349
    9TheCoach16Baghdad Bombers314340
    10TheInjuryFactoryConey Island Warriors353336
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2018

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  2. U2tigers

    U2tigers Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
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    Brisbane
    Other Teams:
    Mizzou, Wonders and Team SANSA
    I'm intrigued where this goes. Nice work any chance on full list?
     
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  3. TJASTA

    TJASTA Joel Selwood of the SFA

    Richmond
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    Jack Graham
    Other Teams:
    Port Melbourne, Fighting Furies
    eww maths
     
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  4. U2tigers

    U2tigers Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
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    Other Teams:
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    Its hard to trust anyone who likes maths.
     
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  5. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    I've got a second stat sheet I'm keeping for position-based stats but they'll remain unrelated for now due to the work involved. I'm pretty keen to see what a good game for a forward pocket is compared to a rover, for example.

    What would be the best way to share the full list?
     
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  6. U2tigers

    U2tigers Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
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    Other Teams:
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    type them out 1 by 1.



    LOL, just kidding, thats above my skills.
     
  7. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    I was going to do top 15 until I tabulated the first round. It seems that most of my past two weeks has been spent seeing how I can update these stats faster. Saving to Notepad and opening in Excel is my new best friend!
     
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  8. kdavva74

    kdavva74 This Charming Man

    Port Adelaide
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    Darwin
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    Brighton, Las Vegas Bears
    This is very very cool Barry.
     
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  9. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    Thank you :)
     
  10. Tarkyn_24

    Tarkyn_24 Brownlow Medallist

    Collingwood
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    Tarkymetrics has a similar measure, though doesn’t take into account pace per se.

    Interested in where you land as a comparison
     
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  11. Thatsapaddlin

    Thatsapaddlin Norm Smith Medallist

    Geelong
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    Lovely work mate

    How long before the Bears EKA infight happens?
     
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  12. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    I've heard of Tarkymetrics but admittedly not gone back through pre-S26 threads to have a look. I might go check it out.
     
  13. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    Thank you. We're all just keeping the buffer between kdavva and the rest of the field.
     
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  14. The Half Back

    The Half Back BC Approved

    Hawthorn
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    BetQ65 says $3.25 to happen before Round 8.
     
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  15. Agent93

    Agent93 Ninety Three

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    Ahh. SuperQoach then...
     
  16. JoshWoodenSpoon

    JoshWoodenSpoon Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
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    Yes Baz!
    You've inspired me to concede less goals. A cause you may have noticed I have been indifferent to so far.
     
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  17. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    You made a top 10 the week you swapped out. Go for glory!
     
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  18. Headless

    Headless Brownlow Medallist

    Melbourne
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    Very cool!
     
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  19. gym4life

    gym4life Premiership Player

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    Could you possibly adjust the formula to reflect my true position of first? Thanks in advance.
     
  20. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    Sure, when you LIFT YOUR GAME. Wait, you're my teammate. Nevermind.
     
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  21. Cactus_

    Cactus_ There is no word in English for my style

    Richmond
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    Not sure I like this new method of counting. Seems to be standardisating me in the wrong direction.
     
  22. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    It just means that despite playing in high-scoring, high-possession games, your output is still league-best.
     
  23. Barrybran

    Barrybran Premiership Player

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    Round 5

    The average number of possessions have slowly increased each round this season while scoring shots remain relatively constant. This has led to raw scores, on average, being shifted down when adjusted for pace. The Swamprats v Dragons bucked the trend this week with a slower paced game due to wet weather which has resulted in raw scores being adjusted upwards for this game.

    Pie 4 Life topped the pace-adjusted rankings for the round with an Adjusted Dream Team (ADT) score of 111, his highest score this season and the equal seventh highest score out of all players this year. Freofalcon notched his third consecutive ADT score of 100+ and moves to the top of the season leaderboard, replacing Cactus_, who recorded his season low ADT of 54.

    Round 5
    RankPlayerTeamR5 Score
    1Pie 4 LifeDragons FC111
    2TigerturbulenceFighting Furies105
    3FreofalconConey Island Warriors104
    4Matt_352Roys FFC104
    5haydoWest Coast Wonders102
    6gym4lifeLas Vegas Bears101
    7ricketySin City Swamprats101
    8roo2maccaGumbies FFC100
    9Ant BearSin City Swamprats100
    10BRABGumbies FFC99

    Season (through five rounds)
    RankPlayerTeamADT
    1FreofalconConey Island Warriors500
    2BRABGumbies FFC485
    33KZ is FootballRoys FFC460
    4Cactus_West Coast Wonders459
    5roo2maccaGumbies FFC456
    6philreichSin City Swamprats441
    7gym4lifeLas Vegas Bears429
    8This Is AnfieldFighting Furies428
    9OESFighting Furies428
    10TheCoach16Baghdad Bombers408

    Starting this week, I'll take a look at additional stats each week that tell various stories of what is happening on the qooty field. We'll start with those players who have achieved consistency so far this season. Captains can put these players on the team sheet and know exactly what they're going to get week in, week out. Season 26 is less than a third of the way complete however one player in particular has achieved an incredible level of consistency. Elton Johns Wig has averaged 65 ADT points per game this season with an outstanding standard deviation of just 2! Special mention goes to roo2macca with a standard deviation of 7 and an average ADT of 91. Incredible stuff guys.

    Most consistent - season (lowest standard deviation through five rounds)
    RankPlayerTeamStd. Dev.Average
    1Elton Johns WigWest Coast Wonders265
    2PerfectFootyWest Coast Wonders512
    3Thommo333Roys FFC558
    4ClarkeMWest Coast Wonders624
    5jd2010Gumbies FFC645
    7ShermyBaghdad Bombers757
    8EastyGold Coast Royals712
    9U2tigersWest Coast Wonders777
    10Lord_FlashConey Island Warriors724
     
  24. Freofalcon

    Freofalcon Brownlow Medallist

    Melbourne
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    West Perth, Hajduk Split, West Ham
    Cactus_ and Barrybran like this.
  25. gym4life

    gym4life Premiership Player

    West Coast
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    Clearly the concept has flaws, the only reason your team scores so little is because you don't do anything with your touches unlike myself who creates goals with all of mine.
     
    JoshWoodenSpoon likes this.
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