SA May Lose Federal Seat

[telsor]

Antony Green has also said the change would likely see the House reduced to 149 seats... and he is pretty much never misinformed.

I defer to his superior knowledge and stand corrected. I thought had the total number was fixed.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Confirmed from census data.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen...presentation-in-house-of-representatives.html

SA down 1. VIC & ACT up 1. Parliament increases to 151 seats.

A third ACT seat excellent news for Labor

 

[telsor]

Confirmed from census data.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen...presentation-in-house-of-representatives.html

SA down 1. VIC & ACT up 1. Parliament increases to 151 seats.

A third ACT seat excellent news for Labor

Odd number of seats freaks me out...

Party A wins 76 seats
Party B wins 75 seats

Party A 'wins', selects speaker, and it's all even.

I know the speaker can break ties, but it defeats the concept of an impartial speaker (however loosely that's implemented by either side, the principle still matters)

 

[aCunningPlan]

Odd number of seats freaks me out...

Party A wins 76 seats
Party B wins 75 seats

Party A 'wins', selects speaker, and it's all even.

I know the speaker can break ties, but it defeats the concept of an impartial speaker (however loosely that's implemented by either side, the principle still matters)

As opposed to two parties getting 75 a piece which is a theoretical possibility now?

I don't get your point.

 

[aCunningPlan]

On the seat reshuffle, the two seats likely to merge in SA according to Green are the two Liberal seats on Grey and Barker (although both are under real siege by Xenophon), while the two seats likely to be created are in the Labor friendly ACT and the new Victorian seat drawing upon the growing population in the booming northern and western suburbs of Melbourne which are also Labor strongholds.

The northern seat of McEwan is 26% above the average number of electors within a division.
The western suburb seat of Lalor is 18% above
The western suburb seat of Gorton 10% above.

So if such a mini redistribution was to occur before the next election Labor could be notionally up two and the Libs down one.

 

[Forward Press]

The ALP would be really happy with this, notional gain of three seats for the next election. Of course still a long way to go and the AEC are still doing up the boundaries but the latest census has helped them out.

 

[aCunningPlan]

The ALP would be really happy with this, notional gain of three seats for the next election. Of course still a long way to go and the AEC are still doing up the boundaries but the latest census has helped them out.

Just a reflection of the dwindling numbers in rural areas and the increased numbers living in the cities.

My local seat of Ballarat is a good example of demographic changes, traditionally a conservative seat the increasing sprawl of Melbourne and view of Ballarat as a commuter city has seen an upper middle class gentrification take place and firmly put the seat in Labor hands.

 

[Generalissimo]

So how do the electoral boundaries in the affected states change?

 

[Forward Press]

It has now been confirmed.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-...bution-151-members-in-next-parliament/8860340

This will also mean that there is one more each in Victoria and ACT with both tipped to favour Labor if an election was to be held after the redistribution is complete.

It is a bit sad to see a State lose representation, but I found it amusing that Christopher Pyne is blaming Labor somehow for this event.

 

[Maggie5]

It has now been confirmed.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-...bution-151-members-in-next-parliament/8860340

This will also mean that there is one more each in Victoria and ACT with both tipped to favour Labor if an election was to be held after the redistribution is complete.

It is a bit sad to see a State lose representation, but I found it amusing that Christopher Pyne is blaming Labor somehow for this event.

Would Pyne move to another 'safe' seat or isn't there one nearby?

 

[Gough]

I want to see Pasin lose his seat just for s**t n giggles.

 

[Forward Press]

Would Pyne move to another 'safe' seat or isn't there one nearby?

Just speculation but he might be parachuted into the Senate maybe. Not many safe Lib seats available in SA.

 

[Gough]

Just speculation but he might be parachuted into the Senate maybe. Not many safe Lib seats available in SA.

Mayo, it was a testament to what a colossal dickhead Jamie Briggs is that he lost that seat, Christopher would still be among his type up there.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Rowan Ramsey has a point re Grey - having one seat potentially covering 90+ per cent of a state's landmass is an awful idea.

 

[Forward Press]

Rowan Ramsey has a point re Grey - having one seat potentially covering 90+ per cent of a state's landmass is an awful idea.

Why not? If there are very few people living in regional SA then it is what it is.

I know the NT is not a state but Lingiari probably covers about 99% of the NT whilst Solomon is just Darwin.

 

[Elroo]

Ive just read in the Geelong Advertiser that as part of the potential changes to seats, the current Lib held marginal Division of Corangamite may lose some of its country (Conservative voting) areas, and in return take on some of Corio's suburban (ALP Voting) areas on the Bellarine.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...s/news-story/3829e3b9ffcd89cbae6c0a41c94c283d

GEELONG’S ballooning population is set to shake up federal politics in the region with boundary changes likely for Corangamite and Corio.

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced on Thursday that Victoria’s federal battle lines would be redrawn as Melbourne’s north and west also gain thousands more residents.

AEC commissioner Tom Rogers said the flagged changes to electoral boundaries will result in an extra MP in the House of Representatives following the next national poll.

“The figures show the population has increased sufficiently to result in Victoria and the ACT each increasing their entitlement by one seat. At the same time, the entitlement for South Australia will decrease by one seat,” Mr Rogers said.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Rowan Ramsey has a point re Grey - having one seat potentially covering 90+ per cent of a state's landmass is an awful idea.

Landmass isn't people.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Why not? If there are very few people living in regional SA then it is what it is.

I know the NT is not a state but Lingiari probably covers about 99% of the NT whilst Solomon is just Darwin.

Landmass isn't people.

There's a degree of continuity between the communities in Lingiari - you're looking at similar demographics, population sizes and issues in Alice, Katherine etc.

Grey will resemble the old Seat of Kalgoorlie a lot more in that regard; what does someone in Mintabie or Ceduna have in common with someone in Renmark or Bordertown? It's why the act requires the AEC to take this stuff into account, rather than solely drawing the lines to make up the numbers.

 

[Number37]

There's a degree of continuity between the communities in Lingiari - you're looking at similar demographics, population sizes and issues in Alice, Katherine etc.

Grey will resemble the old Seat of Kalgoorlie a lot more in that regard; what does someone in Mintabie or Ceduna have in common with someone in Renmark or Bordertown? It's why the act requires the AEC to take this stuff into account, rather than solely drawing the lines to make up the numbers.

I agree with your sentiments but the legal cases on this part of the constitution are clear that the drawing of lines is to be done on the basis of numbers.

It has been successfully argued that it should be that way in the House of Reps because the Senate takes care of the 'other' considerations, to the extent that each state is given equal representation.

With party politics ruling the political system it is hard to see how that can be true. You only need to look at how , for example, the Nationals senators have consistently voted against the interests of their constituents.

 

[LeverPuller]

Ive just read in the Geelong Advertiser that as part of the potential changes to seats, the current Lib held marginal Division of Corangamite may lose some of its country (Conservative voting) areas, and in return take on some of Corio's suburban (ALP Voting) areas on the Bellarine.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...s/news-story/3829e3b9ffcd89cbae6c0a41c94c283d

It's going to be a massive shift in Vic. The thinking is the new seat will be around McEwen, because it's the most overpopulated seat in the country. But there's been speculation for a long time that Chisholm will be abolished as well - whether this still happens now is the question.

Interesting times ahead.